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DAX - Up Up & Away!DAX We've had European indices out-perform compared to US indices, this would be due to international opportunities increase this has been executing for while a hedge against US, we look at US yields we are 5% roughly now that into consideration of going into US indices the need of making a return is relative high, now compared to the opportunities and growth of Europe! In my previous posts you can see FTSE100 that idea playing out well. Now I am sharing the DAX chart as I think we could even re-test those highs that has been tested couple times, a break through key resistance where we are currently at the momentum is still on long side and targets would be 16250 areas and look that 1.618 Fib. However, if we break below 15150 areas and break out down side of this beautiful channel then I'd expect 50 EMA areas to be your target areas. My thoughts overall, we really need pay attention to DXY where that's going to play further, daily close perhaps below of ranges we are at a pull back will occur but we do have NFP and if that is above let's say 220k and is strong number higher expect DXY to rally yields, and we also need to take not only NFP into consideration this week, let's not forget next week we have CPI. Take in all this important US data, and then we need think is market still pricing just 25 basis point hike or will we go 50, currently its pricing 25...Time will tell! I still think housing crises will increase and the automotive industry will face further issues. Key tip: Don't forget to look at the bigger picture! Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
XETR:DAX
by Trade_Journal
A Golden Cross for EUA FuturesEuropean Union Carbon Allowances (EUAs) rose close to 19% in the past month (16/01/2023-15/02/2023). In its quarterly publication released on Monday 13th February 2023, the European Commission revised upwards its economic growth forecast for the Eurozone to 0.9% in 2023 from 0.3% previously. Moreover, it expects the trading block to avoid recession. With the European Union on a healthier footing than previously assumed, market participants are more optimistic and hence have upgraded their expectations on carbon allowance demand. The compliance deadline for 2022 emissions is 30th April 2023. There could be strength in demand as we approach that date. At the same time, markets are anticipating an announcement on final decisions from trialogue discussions (between the European Council, European Commission and European Parliament) on the ‘Fit for 55’ legislative proposal package put forward in 2021. The preliminary agreement announced in December 2022 was more aggressive than the European Commission’s initial proposal on many fronts affecting the European Emissions Trading System (See summary table of some of the provisional agreements below). A tighter Linear Reduction Factor; wider scope of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms; an extension of the Market Stability Reserve intake of 24% to 2030 are all positive for EUA prices. The market awaits confirmation that these will be in the final wording. Still risks linger with the financing of REPowerEU, where the Commission had proposed monetising some of the EUAs in the Market Stability Reserve. Parliament voted on 14th February to partially accept the idea of using Allowances in the Reserve to finance REpowerEU (by taking €12bn from the European Innovation Fund and then compensating the Fund with 27 million Allowances)1. The remaining €8bn will come from front-loading planned auctions of EUAs. If the Council also approves we see this as a price negative move. With close to a 19% gain in EUA futures prices in the past month, the market has entered a “Golden Cross” in technical analysis jargon, where the 50 day moving average (DMA) price rises above the 200 DMA. It is interpreted by technical analysts and traders as signalling a definitive upward turn in a market. Sources: 1 Peter Liese Press Release - Overcome dependency from Russian Oil and Gas breathing speace for electricity consumers and industry
ICEEUR:ECF1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Update on US Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices – December 2022A cold weather snap forecast across much of the United States is driving demand for natural gas as a heating fuel higher. Prices of front month Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures have risen over the past week as a result. The front of the curve has moved more than the rest of the curve. The curve is now close to where it was two weeks ago. Natural gas in storage is within seasonally normal range. Since June 2022, when Freeport LNG Terminal had to shut down after a fire, natural gas storage in the US has been ramped up as the gas produced in the US can no longer be exported at the same volume as prior to the shut-down. Freeport LNG accounts for close to 20% of US export capacity. Its re-opening has been delayed many times and the latest guidance from Freeport is a partial opening in mid-December 2022 and full production in March 2023 . However, in an email statement to Reuters they have pushed the reopening to end-of-year , and we remain sceptical that there will be any flow of LNG from the terminal this side of the of the New Year. Ample storage could drive US natural gas prices lower when the cold weather snap passes. Europe has been able to fill its natural gas storage capacity to close to 90% coming into the start of the winter period (October 2022) and is now drawing on that capacity at a slower than expected rate due to thrifting and an initially milder-than-expected weather pattern. However, colder weather has arrived, which could drive higher demand. Natural gas flows to Europe from Russia have slowed to a trickle and hence the region is reliant on Liquified Natural Gas from elsewhere. Unfortunately, with Freeport LNG offline, the US will not participate fully in meeting this demand over the coming weeks, but US Henry Hub may get a boost when Freeport LNG opens. The European Union is currently trying to implement a price cap on imports. There is no final deal to speak of, but the European Commission’s proposal, is for a market correction mechanism that would kick in when the price of month-ahead contracts on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility exceeded €275 ($290) per megawatt hour and the gap between world prices was greater than €58 . Any success in approving this price cap, could limit upside for US Henry Hub used as feedstock for LNG exports to Europe. However, with the price gap between US and European natural gas prices being so wide (almost 6 times ), we believe the upside could nevertheless very large. Source: 1 FREE PORTING NEW ROUTER 2 Reuters 3 Bloomberg 13/12/2022 4 WisdomTree calculation on 13/12/2022 using Dutch TTF Gas 1st Line Financial Futures (USD/MMBTU) as published by ICE Endex who convert megawatt hour to Metric Million British Thermal Unit (MMBTU) and USD using the WM/Refinitiv Closing EURUSD Spot Rates as published by Refinitiv at 4 pm UK time and Henry Hub Front month futures.
NYMEX:NG1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
DAX Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast 10-14 October 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.25% for this week, falling from the 4.53% from the last week. Currently there is around 18.2% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 12727 BOT 11623 The current volatility percentile is around 90th, placing us in a very risky environment. With this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 1.83% AVG weekly bear candle = 2.5% At the same time, there is currently a 73% that we will touch the high of previous weekly candle of 12674 and there is a 26% that we will touch the low of the previous week of 11894 From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 80% agreement that the market is in a bearish trend ( the current price is below those moving averages)
XETR:DAX
by exlux
European Trading SessionHello everyone! Today we continue the review of trading sessions on the forex market. The European Trading session is next in line. Let's get started! The European trading session is considered the most volatile of all. The main reasons for high volatility are the coincidences of the opening of the session with the work of the Asian session, in addition, the European session closes during the opening of the American stock exchange. It is at this time that 5 major financial platforms are operating – the exchanges of London, Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg and Zurich. Trading sessions Zurich, Frankfurt, Paris, Luxembourg are three major trading platforms that open at 2:00 New York time, while the London Stock Exchange, the main trading center, opens at 3:00. The opening time of trading in Europe is considered to be from the beginning of work in London, since it is on the London site that 30% of all transactions are made. The largest companies and banks enter trading on the London Stock Exchange at about 4:00 New York time, so at this time there is the greatest volatility. Opening hours The period of such activity lasts about 2 hours, after which the activity of traders decreases and it is lunchtime in the offices. With the opening of trading in America at 9 o'clock, a new momentum of volatility begins in the European trading session. The activity will last about two hours, after which it will gradually fade due to the closure of the Frankfurt, Zurich, Paris and Luxembourg exchanges. Stock Market assets With the opening of the European session, trading begins on the largest exchanges in Europe: the London LSE, the Austrian WBAG, the Berlin, Munich and Hamburg stock Exchanges in Germany, the Irish Stock Exchange, the Italian ISE, the Spanish BM in Madrid, the Swiss SWX, the Stockholm Stock Exchange in Sweden, as well as groups of pan-European exchanges Euronext and OMX. During the work of the largest exchanges in the European session, the fundamental European indices are traded: Euro Stoxx is a group of indices of 600 companies of different capitalization levels located in 18 Eurozone countries. FTSE – index of securities of the 100 largest companies traded on the London Stock Exchange CAC 40 – Euronext Paris Blue Chip Index DAX – index of securities of 30 companies with high capitalization of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange IBEX 35 – blue chip index of the BM exchange FTSE MIB – index based on quotations of 40 largest companies on ISE OMX STKH30 – Swedish index of securities of 30 companies with the largest capitalization traded on the Stockholm Stock Exchange SMI – stock index of the 20 most liquid companies of the Swiss Stock Exchange The MOSBIRZHI Index is a Russian index of shares of 50 companies belonging to the blue chips of the Moscow Exchange, calculated in rubles. RTSI is an index of shares of the 50 largest companies on the Moscow Stock Exchange, calculated in US dollars. Currency pairs of the European trading session During the European session, currency pairs of countries whose exchanges are active at this time have the greatest volatility. Currency pairs with euro: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD, EUR/CHF, EUR/NZD, EUR/TRY, EUR/SEK, EUR/NOK, EUR/HUF Currency pairs with the pound: GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, GBP/BGN, GBP/CAD, GBP/CHF, GBP/CZK, GBP/DKK, GBP/HKD, GBP/HUF, GBP/JPY, GBP/NOK, GBP/NZD, GBP/PLN, GBP/RON, GBP/SEK, GBP/SGD, GBP/TRY, GBP/ZAR Swiss Franc pairs: AUD/CHF, CAD/CHF, CHF/BGN, CHF/JPY, CHF/RON, CHF/TRY, NZD/CHF, USD/CHF It is also necessary to pay attention to the currency pairs of the US dollar with the Swedish, Czech, Danish krona, as well as the Hungarian forint, the volatility of which also increases slightly during the European session, especially in its last hours, when the European session intersects with the American one. Features Intersecting with two sessions at once: the Asian and the American, the European session becomes very volatile during the hours of intersection. It is at this time that scalpers come into play, who earn on fast movements and sharp trend changes. Due to such high volatility, beginners are not advised to trade at this time or should at least be very careful, because one move in the European session can destroy all capital. A distinctive feature of the European Session is powerful movements and rapid change of quotes. The lion's share of movement and trends is formed when the European Trading Session comes into play. This session also features a lot of manipulations – false breakouts, probing levels and collecting stop losses. That is why it is very important to be attentive during this session and not risk a large percentage of capital. Conclusion The European trading session itself is very volatile, because it is at this time that financial centers around the world turn on. However, during the intersection of sessions, volatility increases significantly, which creates large jumps and price movements. It will be very difficult for beginners to trade at this time, because strong movements will often reach stop losses, there will be a lot of false breakouts after which they will turn around sharply. At the same time, professional traders who are able to analyze a large amount of information and are able to make quick decisions will be able to earn a lot of money. Traders, if you liked this idea or if you have your own opinion about it, write in the comments. I will be glad 👩‍💻
Education
by Lingrid
8
ENEL (1W) Pottential reversal for Enel during winter ? Hello Folks, Seems like Energy Sector is attractive right now. Looking at many European companies (Producers and Electricity Suppliers) could reveal interesting bets for mid-term // or several months during Winter. ENEL is one of Such companies. Need to dig deeper into Fundamentals. BUT for now considering Technical Analysis of Chart. Seems like Stock is down 50% from last year top. A) If it Holds price around 4.5 and turn up. It could be last impulsive wave UP (Wave 5 of bigger TimeFrame). Which could last 6-12 months. = Back to Price around 9. Right now the stock can be Attractive with Forward Dividend at 7,71%. P/E at 16 is probably too expensive (Compared to CEZ at 11.7, which should be way better company) B) If it drops below, it means Overlaping of waves marked as 1 and 4. (Forbidden in Elliot Wave theory. So it would be completely different structure and its better to stay away. It could drop to the bottom of GREEN long-term channel at 3.5 or even deeper. For now I Will not enter position, but will dig deeper into fundamentals and certainly let you know very soon. Let me know if somebody follow this company or other European Energy companies ;)
MIL:ENEL
by LongevityContrarian
Natural Gas’s Price Is As Combustible as the Energy CommodityVolatility in markets creates opportunity, but as risk is always a function of reward, the more the upside, the greater the potential for losses. Since natural gas futures began trading on the NYMEX in 1990, more than a few market participants have lost fortunes in the market that has traded as low as $1.02 and as high as $15.65 per MMBtu. Over five times higher since June 2020 US LNG to Asia was sold out for more than a decade A very volatile energy commodity Europe’s dependence on Russia causes supply issues If prices in Europe are a guide, we could see a challenge to the 2008 and 2005 highs The high came in 2005 when a devastating hurricane destroyed natural gas infrastructure along the US Gulf Coast at the NYMEX delivery point at the Henry Hub in Erath, Louisiana. Another storm in 2008 took the price above the $10 per MMBtu level but to a lower high. Over the next twelve years, the natural gas market changed. Massive discoveries of quadrillions of cubic feet of natural gas in the US Marcellus and Utica shale regions and technological advances in fracking and extracting natural gas from the earth’s crust caused the supplies to soar and the price to decline. Since necessity is the mother of invention, two new demand verticals developed. Natural gas replaced coal in the US for power generation. Meanwhile, turning gas into liquid for transport beyond the US pipeline network created an export market for the energy commodity. In 2020, the price fell to the lowest level since 1995 at below $1.50 per MMBtu. Since then, the bear has transformed into a bull. Over five times higher since June 2020 The most recent peak in the natural gas futures arena took the price to $8.0650 on April 18. The weekly chart shows the explosive move from the $1.44 level in late June 2020 to the April 18 high, over five and one-half times higher in less than two years. Moving to a multi-year high as the peak season for demand approaches is one thing, but this rally comes as the peak season ended in March. US LNG to Asia was sold out for more than a decade The natural gas price in Asia has been far above US prices for years. The domestic US natural gas market’s transformation and expanding the addressable market far beyond the US pipeline network has made the energy commodity and NYMEX natural gas futures market more sensitive to international prices and supply and demand fundamentals. Cheniere Energy (LNG) is a leading supplier of liquefied natural gas that travels worldwide on ocean vessels. In 2021, Cheniere’s CEO told CNBC that the company was sold out of LNG for more than a decade after signing long-term supply contracts with Asian consumers. Asian prices were multiples of US prices, making the business highly profitable. Cheniere’s share price has reflected the booming demand for LNG. LNG shares rose from $27.06 in March 2020 to the most recent high of $149.42 in March 2022. At the $135.70 level on April 22, LNG shares reflect the growing demand for their energy product. While the shares and revenues exploded higher, earnings have been elusive. The chart shows the negative earnings trend since Q1 2021. A survey of twenty analysts on Yahoo Finance has an average price target of $149.50 for LNG shares, with forecasts ranging from $61 to $180 per share. LNG is a leader, but the EPS issue could cause the stock to become as volatile as the natural gas price over the past week. A very volatile energy commodity While price ranges tend to widen at higher levels, natural gas volatility was head-spinning over the past week. As the daily chart of May NYMEX natural gas futures highlights, after trading to a high of $8.065 per MMBtu on April 18, the price moved below the $7 level on April 19. Natural gas has never been for the faint of heart as the price has ranged from $1.02 to $15.65 per MMBtu since trading on NYMEX began in 1990. However, after over a decade of lower highs and lower lows, the trend changed in June 2020. The long-term chart illustrates the trend changed when natural gas futures moved above the 2018 $4.929 per MMBtu high, ushering in a bullish path of least resistance for the energy commodity. The quarterly price ranges since mid-2021 are the broadest since 2008, the last time the energy commodity eclipsed the $10 per MMBtu level. Europe’s dependence on Russia causes supply issues The previous administration warned Germany and the EU about depending on Russia for natural gas supplies. Meanwhile, US energy policy shifted from “drill-baby-drill” and “frack-baby-frack” in January 2021 when the Biden Administration began fulfilling its campaign pledge to address climate change. Stricter regulations, canceling pipelines, and bans on fracking and drilling on federal lands caused oil and gas output to decline. While it handed the pricing power in the oil market back to the international oil cartel and Russia, it also limited Europe’s options for natural gas supplies. While the administration took a hard line against US production, it supported a Russian natural gas pipeline to supply Europe with the energy commodity. The February 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine changed the world. While the US, European, and other allied countries came together with severe sanctions, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas remains a window of opportunity for the Putin government. Retaliating for other sanctions, Russia is now demanding rubles for natural gas supplies, boosting the currency despite other stringent sanctions. The US government has leaned on companies like Cheniere to divert supplies from Asia to Europe. However, the administration’s energy policy has not supported the new US terminals to liquefy natural gas and increase supply capacity. Russia remains in the driver’s seat in European natural gas requirements and is free to drive the price higher. If prices in Europe are a guide, we could see a challenge to the 2008 and 2005 highs At the recent $8+ high, US natural gas futures rose to the highest price since 2008. Meanwhile, European prices have screamed higher in 2022. The long-term chart shows ICE UK natural gas futures rose to $800 in March. Before 2021, the all-time high was at the $117 level in 2005. At $171.39 at the end of last week, European natural gas prices remain at lofty levels above the pre-2021 record peak. Natural gas has transformed into a far more international commodity. The US lost an opportunity to supply Europe and remove cash flow from Russia before the first Russian soldier crossed Ukraine’s border on February 24. The revenue from natural gas sales to Europe is funding the first major European war since WW II. Rising natural gas prices will fuel inflation and hit consumers in their pocketbooks in the US. Natural gas is another victim of inflation, the war in Ukraine, and US energy policy. Addressing climate change is a noble cause, but fossil fuels continue to power the world. The shift from hydrocarbons to alternative and renewable fuels is a multi-decade, not a multi-month process. The economic and geopolitical landscapes and US energy policy shift ignited a very bullish fuse in a very combustible commodity. Natural gas price explosions and implosions could be the norm instead of the exception over the coming months and years. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
NYMEX:NG1!
by Andy_Hecht
Is there upside for the EUR/USD?The European Commission wants to borrow €750B to help European Nations less capitalized. This is on the back Germany and France’s proposal for a €500B fund intended to be given as grants to poorer nations such as Italy and Spain. Financial times estimate that Italy could be in line to get close to €82B The extra €250B was suggested by the European Commission in order to fund loans to member states. This tested a critical 1.099 resistance level as bulls rode the rally up on the good news. How is the European Union going to pay for the grants? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is proposing a myriad of taxes to pay for this fund. These taxes include a tax on plastic, carbon usage and big tech, raising billions of euros a year. What is the long-term view on the EUR/UISD? As many countries, Europe is being propped up with billions of dollars of quantitative easing. Historically, quantitative easing has put pressure to the downside for the currencies the central banks directly deal with. However, if all the central banks are implementing unprecedented quantitative easing measures, what will dictate the which currency outperforms? It is highly likely that the currencies that outperform are those whose governments lead and excel in their long term actions with regards to the Coronavirus. If we take a look at the reutrns of some currencies against the USD We can see that debatably, the currencies that have had the largest returned implemented effective Coronavirus policies. The risk off rally giving the USD its initial boost have mostly disappeared as risk on sentiment starts in the markets. It is obvious that there are more factors in play, however it is interesting to note the comparison. Are you bullish on the Euro?
by BlackBull_Markets
1
EUR broke downDeMark - Sperendao analysis of EURO index. Here we weighed EUR versus 2 biggest world currencies US dollar and Japanese yen . Clear signs of bullish collapse. We identified the right TD supply and demand points and analyzed the monthly structure. Breakdown of the major TD supply line occurred in July - August 2019 and it was confirmed by retest already in December. After passing through the most recent TD demand supply line (which is weak as it is flat and is expected to be broken due to the previous action) we should see price trending to 2000 lows (0.84 and might be below but I will just leave it here:) and considering volatility I would not be surprised if we would get there with 3 monthly candles. EU (EEA) crisis is only developing. Top Absolute Correlation EURUSD M 1. EURUSD - USDX -96.8% 2 EURUSD - USDPLN -95.8% 3 EURUSD - USDCZK -92.7% 4 EURUSD - EURSGD 88.9% 5 EURUSD - EURCHF 86.7% 6 EURUSD - USDSGD -81.6% 7 EURUSD - USDHUF -79.9% 8 EURUSD - EURJPY 78.7% 9 EURUSD - EURCAD 74.7% 10 EURUSD - HK50 70.5% Top Absolute Correlation EURJPY M 1 EURJPY - SGDJPY 89.5% 2 EURJPY - EURSGD 86.1% 3 EURJPY - EURCHF 82.1% 4 EURJPY - CADJPY 81.3% 5 EURJPY - EURUSD 78.7% 6 EURJPY - USDPLN -77.8% 7 EURJPY - CHFJPY 76.4% 8 EURJPY - USDCZK -75.9% 9 EURJPY - NOKJPY 74.1% 10 EURJPY - XAGEUR -70.8%
Short
by ICFX
EURUSD Possible Short Term Rebound/Retracement UpwardRemembered this chart from my older idea? No much changes from the technical point of view but things do change around beyond technical and I just want to tell my good folks that I am a guy who go with the follow. Kinda like trend following trader you can take but I don't mean the overall reversal of trend on this major pair but just the personality I got during trading. It will be a foolish word to just say overall trend reversal as things need time to fully confirm the actual fact and it's not right time to say a pure reversal or not but I can say for now bearish have been weakening and we can see a slight retracement around 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at least. If better who knows 50% can also be possible but the price will need to break the weekly pivot point level plus breakout beyond the falling trendline (red). Thanks for reading my idea and I hope you enjoyed and if you think it added some value in your trading don't forget to support me by hitting a thumbs up button! (LIKE)
Long
by jessi061
4
EURO on the edge of historical collapseTradingview hides EURUSD absolute low of early 1985. Even Investing.com will not reveal it to you. Investing.com provides a close for 1985 and possibility to draw a trendline. You can see it using Fxtop.com historic chart and then use investing.com to draw that trendline. But that historic trendline runs the way I plotted now - the right end is even slightly lower. At any case March monthly shadow did test it - hence the violent bullish reaction from the European Central Bank. At this point it is hard to make any technical prediction because we are dealing with the European Central Bank which can easily push the price. But we are on the very edge of historical trendline. If APRIL candle closes below that trendline that will change EURO history for years to come - a close below will break 1985-2020 EURUSD uptrend (by modern definition of technical analysis) that lasted 35 years. Even we move below that trendline in April it is still not guaranteed that we will stay there. April monthly close below is necessary and May candle (being bearish) has to validate that as well. But I will not be surprised if this breakdown occurs considering the situation in the EU. Even on small April volume EURO keeps flying down. ECB can push the price but not control it.
by ICFX
3