EURUSD Bear Trend Continues DownwardThe euro was one of the worst performers last Friday and continues to head into negative territory. At the weekly view, we can see that the pair is in a long bear trend while moving averages suggest this to be the case as well. Brexit only worsens this as key votes will occur today and tomorrow on whether or not the UK will be able to strike a deal with the common market. Moreover, an inverted treasury yield in the US signals a recession is lurking somewhere around the corner, although when it will pop up is a bit more uncertain. This only furthers speculation that the dollar will in general increase in value against a whole host of currencies as the dollar tends to be a safe haven asset. From a technical perspective, the pair's inability to capitalize on the recent bullish break through a six-month-old descending trend-line resistance and a subsequent sharp rejection slide from 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.0341-1.2556 up-move now points the resumption of the prior well-established bearish trend. While the pair found a way to break up beyond short-term resistance, this appears to have been a flash in the pan with more downward pressure.
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Euroshort
UK Won't Sign the Divorce PapersBut just because the UK is fickle on leaving the EU for the WTO, its still not sure if ready to make the jump. EURUSD in the upcoming week will almost entirely be moved by Brexit, however concerns over a slowdown in European growth may be justified with more weak EU data, particularly in central bank speak on Tuesday, German CPI on Thursday, and unemployment figures on Friday. While these figures are expected to come in mostly unchanged, it could be Draghi's speech on Tuesday that could give investors the most jitters.
Meanwhile, the UK is injecting much more fear into the heart of EU investors with the prospect of a no deal Brexit. This not only hurts the UK, but also the EU which imports many goods to the UK. Research conducted by the Eurasia Group suggests that every major EU country stands to lose GDP per capita except for Austria if the UK leaves without a deal.
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EURUSD Long is Overcrowded Trade, MAs Signal More Losses The headline kind of describes this trade. Not much else to say technically beyond this. Fundamentally, I'll keep it short. EU growth is quickly declining. I think Brexit will speed this up which is fast approaching. If you want some more words and charts on Brexit, you can check out my analysis here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Oscillators Lean SellBrexit and fundamental data are the most important components of EURUSD, but these long-term trend lines are probably impacting as well. Economic sentiment that came out on Tuesday was quite lackluster, pretty much like the overall EU economy. No more event risk this week other than Brexit. I wouldn't be surprised if the downtrend is extended, but my bias to EURUSD is still medium- and long-term short.
EURJPY - Short with harmonicsHi guys,
it's been a while since i last posted an idea. I wanted to share with you this simple setup i'm looking at right now. I've already entered short in this pair, for a bunch of reasons. First of all, we have daily structure looking left (that is always key), then you can see a big bat pattern completed from some hours, but also a double top with RSI divergence looking down. Every clue sums up and this is why i'm shorting this pair right now.
If you have any idea/comment, feel free to write beneath.
Otherwise, see you in the next chart!
EURO about to fall under supportThe EURO is showing weakness against the USD.
Actually it is heading to the sloping neckline of the underlying S-H-S formation.
As the RSI is already deep a little consolidation is possible before the next drop could break the neckline.
This could lead the EURO to prices around 1.08 USD.
EURO in the longer run is still in the declining parallel channel, which it has tested three times on the upper side and also three times on the lower side. So this channel seems to be strong and one can conclude that EURO won´t stop on the 1.08 USD-Level but lower.
This is no trading advice!!
EURUSD - Break Below of Rising ChannelEURUSD has been on the rise for the past 3 days.
Base on the chart, we are seeing that the price has probably ended its retracement, at least the first wave.
An interesting pattern that has been occurring for the past few weeks is that the dollar always takes a turn on the last trading day.
So with this structure, I'm betting that EURUSD will come down today.
EURUSDHi,
After a successful EURUSD analyse ,again it's time for short Euro,As you see we reach our resistance and saw first signs of weakness here.Maybe we go little higher before next drop ,but we will reach my short target in,soon.
First target is 1.163
Second Target is 1.159
Don't forget stop loss
Good Luck
EURO Short to 1.1500 Next Week, FOMC, ECB Dovish CommentsOk Traders, EUR/USD is primed to go lower in my opinion. After A small Rally this last week to give back some gains by the dollar, the EURO is showing weakness yet again ahead of ECB Dovish comments to end QE. Despite that Being EURO Positive , the comments raised by the ECB will fool the market into thinking that Inflation is not coming soon and that Interest rates must remain much lower for an extended period after QE Ends. This, along with Dollar Positive interest Rate hikes next week could see Euro Sell off Yet again back down to 1.1500
I am currently going to Short Euro Next week should the Oppurunity Present itself.
We can see clearly a Trendline Pattern Forming with Rejections from Previously Daily Lows on EUR/USD
Another look at DXY will also show a rally immenent after some Corrections.
Next week will be very interesting for this pair
EURO weakThe EURO has rosen up to 1,24 USD. But still it had been in the peak of the triangle. The upper line coming from was formed by the lows in 2010 (june) and 2012 (july), the lower line is an ascending trend line; the beginning of this trend in 2017 (march).
A third line crossed the peak - a swing trend line at 1.23$.
The fight between bulls and bears around this line has now be won by the bears. And this was nearly predictable, because of the direction of RSI and MACD. Both going down since feb 2018.
There have been speculation why the EURO was so strong to USD and some thought it might the beginning of a de-dollarization.
In my mind this could happen in the future, but actually more facts ar pro Dollar than EURO, especially the interest rate. Also the problems within the EURO-Zone are not solved at all. Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy are states with hight debt and no concept to solve this challenge.
If there is no change in money policy in the EURO-Zone (zero interest rate / quantitaive easing) the EURO should lose its strength and go deeper - in the long run to 1.14$. (fib retracement 38,2%)
I stay to this analysis even if EURO regains force for a while and would test the upper limit of the long descending trend channel.
Only in the case that EURO breaks through this limit to the top this analysis would be false.
USD/EURO Short via FXE etfThe case for a USD/EURO short seems to be strengthening. It seems as if long-run expectations of the USD/EURO pair has favored the euro with its rebound in economic growth and subtle increases in inflation.
However, the market may be dismissing the US economies strength as the Fed has more or less confirmed 3 rate hikes in 2018 as well as leaning towards a 4th one if inflation and economic conditions continue to expand & grow.
Here is our thesis for a EURO short - via a Bear Put spread on the FXE etf
-This week’s ECB meeting seems unlikley to result in increased rates tapering while the Fed is actively unwinding QE
-Softer EU inflation data, manufacturing PMI’s, and the Italian election results will keep pressure low on Draghi to tighten despite solid GDP statistics
-Recent US equity spike in volatility likely to be top of ECB voters’ minds.
-Target $112 by end of Q2 2018 but $108 if major European stress event occurs
EURGBP 4H Chart: Short-term retracement The common European currency has been trading in a downtrend channel against the British pound since the middle of January. Although the decline has been stopped by the weekly PP at 0.86 for a temporary retracement to the upside.
After testing the downtrend's boundary on 25th January, the pair started to consolidate to the north. A junior pattern has been drawn to trail the movement of the market.
The bull is likely to continue dominating the pair for a short period of consolidation until it is stopped by the weekly PP at 0.88 or the daily dominant channel upper trend line.
EURAUD - DAILY CHART SELL SETUPEURAUD - Daily time frame. I was anticipating a reversal pull back on this pair for a few weeks and now i can see this pair and euro pairs falling into a corrective structure on daily time frames. After this big corrective move I see further strength in euro pairs and another extension/impulsive move to the upside on weekly time frame.
EUR USD Daily Analysis We are going down for the time being Hi everyone
Eur usd from analysis on the break of lower low and pitchfork lines has shown me we are going down so my if then statement is as such: If this market continues to take out the previous buyers going down then I will set my tp to either the first tp or second depending on how deep we go in the market: I am looking for the euro usd to keep going back up long term trend is bullish but this is a little pit stop to get on that way up
your friend Kris
any comments or ideas on pairs you want me to look at let me know
www.mymentortv.com
EURGBP Short - Hammer the price down!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Price action at daily resistance. ALSOOOO, the RSI is Overbought @ over 80. (TECHNICALS ARE NOW ALIGNED)
Brexit woesss!! - Too much negativity so far from the negotiations UK government are producing to EUR
Sellers should enter the market by friday. Expecting some positive fundamentals for GBP this week and next week.
$$ Take profit at a psychological number $$ but could reach previous support
SL: 0.93030
Entry: 0.92285
TP: 0.91000