Eurostox50
Eurostoxx 50 : Bearish dynamic & resistance areas, better shortThe EU stocks index Eurostoxx 50 (MOY0) has made a nice rise since the Brexit (end June), but the buyers are currently facing some difficulties to go higher. In fact, the european stock market is inside a bearish dynamic since early 2015, as characterized by the downside trendline resistance (blue) and the bearish 200 days moving average.
In this case, the sellers are likely to become majoritary again due the the following reasons :
- Proximity with the downside trendline resistance
- Beginning of a retreat at 3100 points, first resistance
- This resistance area matches with the 50% retracement of the violent drop we have seen in december - february.
Both the long term dynamics and levels should prevent the buyers to go further and initiate a pull back to where markets were in september.
Here is the precise strategy :
- Open short at the current price (3080 points on Friday close)
- Stop @ 3120 pts (above the resistance for market noise)
- First target @ 3025 points (close 50% of the position, reward/risk = 1.38)
- Second target @ 2940 points (close the other 50% of the position, reward/risk = 3.5)
Possible cypher formation on the Euro Stoxx 50The support line on the downtrend was broken towards the end of February, and we are currently seeing a rally after the pullback.
Perfection of the black trend line crossing the triangle from the cypher.
If this rally continues to 3178 then we will have a cypher pattern completion and could go short.
Profit targets indicated by the green boxes. Stop loss indicated by the red box.
Pound Sterling and CABLE WEAKNESS is Signaling Monetary SurpriseRE: Global Macro Update Regarding European Union, #ECB, and UK
The way the #Euro is strengthening relative to the Pound, and particularly the way the #CABLE $GBPUSD cross-rate is falling out of bed is about to unleash shock-waves of negative #sentiment through the European Euro STOXX Equity Markets $FEZ. According to RunningAlpha.com Capital Markets Intelligence, this currency market action is portending a monetary surprise announcement; and any rate hike in Europe to stem a soon to be out of control falling CABLE would backfire, as it would just put dangerous downward pressure on UK's GDP and Britain's Industrial production, ultimately further weakening the #Pound #Sterling
Best regards,
Efrem -- Looking for better times ahead in the USA after this initial start of the year shock in USA equity markets abates in the not too distant future ( as indicated in prior memos at Running Alpha.com; as the situation rapidly deteriorates in Europe, capital will likely migrates out of Europe into the USA in earnest.
Crash Warning For Euro STOXX 50 Equity IndexRunning Alpha Capital Markets Intelligence re-iterates its warning posted on Jan 11th, 2016 to Global Investors of an Imminent and Persistent Crash, specifically for Euro STOXX 50 Equity Index ( Symbol FEZ ) .
The benchmark European index, the Euro STOXX 50 should easily retest the crash lows of 2009; USA equity markets do not have a crash signal, but will experience heavy volatility in near term before turning euphoric with a powerful V-bottom recovery from 2016 into 2017. Euro STOXX 50 will see unprecedented volatility -- off the charts and likely accompanied by rapidly deteriorating fundamental and geo-political events.
In summary,
* Long USA Equity Leadership and Short Euro STOXX 50 Index is an opportunistic strategy for the environment upon us now through 2017.
* It is likely that no matter how significant short term volatility gets in USA over the very near term, the persistent panic selling to hit Euro STOXX 50 Index across all time horizons from the near term to the long term will be so extreme that money flows will likely create an episode of strong relative outperformance in USA markets all the way into 2017.