Another European stock in trouble? Double top on #LOREAL #LOR
seems to be in progress
and a further weakening of the eurozone
By the time this massive double top has confirmed with a breakout
a 1/3 of the stocks's value would have been shed
Ultimately if we get a major downturn
Loreal could be down to 150 zone
Eurostoxx50
STOXX50 / EURO STOXX50 Bullish Robbery PlanMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
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EURO STOXX 50 Already at Target 1. On Way to over 11 thousand.Euro Stonks are raging higher
Euro zone growth has been terrible ever since the inception of the #EU and especially with the introduction of the common currency.
(common currency but uncommon debts)
Why are they going up now
Are they simply playing catch up
Is the ECB going to engage in FED like stimulus and PPT activities?
Currency devaluation
or actual economic goodtimes?
IDK
All I know all the European Bourses have major room to the upsides
#CAC
#DAX
#FTSE
and all the minor index's are positively positioned like I have been saying for quite some time now.
CAC40 #HVF for a doubleBig Pattern = Big Moves
Long consolidations = Fast Breakouts
The #NIKKEI had a beautiful chart pattern and we are seeing the explosive up moves occur in that market.
The French stock market - along much Europe hasn't done much for over two years
But we are quickly approaching Target 1 of a large --- non conventional HVF
Is it monetary stimulus or economic growth that causes the CAC to double?
Don't know ...
One is more desirable of course.
But the same boys
cheering the US stock market screaming higher after a decade plus of stimulus. zero rates and buybacks, does it matter?
@TheCryptoSniper
Rate-cut discussions are prematureThe ECB left its monetary policy unchanged, in line with expectations. The information available since the December meeting has largely confirmed the central bank’s assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook, leaving the Governing Council (GC) in a wait-and-see mode. ECB President Lagarde confirmed her Davos comments, hence indicating that she still expects the first rate cut to come in summer, but the market is not convinced, and dovish remarks here and there actually fueled meaningful rate-cut expectations already for the April meeting. While the
ECB’s GDP and CPI forecasts will likely be revised down in March, the GC seems absolutely determined to play it safe on inflation, and this will continue as long as the labor market holds up. I still expect the first rate cut in June, followed by a gradual reduction at a pace of 25bp per quarter towards a broadly neutral level of 2%.
Despite ongoing weakness in indicators of economic activity, the GC appears relatively relaxed about the growth outlook, largely thanks to ongoing resilience in the labor market. The statement mentions signs of recovery in some leading indicators, despite most of them still pointing to broad stagnation in GDP.
Did Ms. Lagarde want to signal that the GC is warming up to the idea of an “early” start to the easing cycle? Probably not. Her rhetoric was mainly aimed at strengthening the message that the ECB is data-dependent, as opposed to calendar-driven.
Eurostoxx 50 at Important Support.Eurostoxx 50 at Important Support. Production in Europe is Declining
As data released this morning showed:
→ Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in France: actual = 42.6, expected = 44.4, a month ago = 43.6. Thus, the index dropped to its lowest level since the panic associated with the spread of coronavirus.
→ PMI in Germany: actual = 40.7, expected = 40.1, a month ago = 39.8.
Since the values of the PMI index (considered a leading indicator of the state of the economy, calculated by S&P Global) are significantly below 50, this indicates a contraction of the economy in the 2 most important countries of Europe in the context of high interest rates.
It is not surprising that the European stock index Eurostoxx 50 shows bearish dynamics: the price is below the SMA (100), which is directed downwards. The publication of PMI values added negativity. Will the bearish trend continue?
The Eurostoxx 50 chart gives hope, because the Eurostoxx 50 has dropped to key support, which is located at the psychological level of 4,000. In the past, this level has had a noticeable impact on market dynamics: the price either bounced or made a breakout with a subsequent test. This psychological level property can be used to find an entry point into a position while reducing risk.
It is possible that the level of 4,000 may become a factor for the emergence of a bullish impulse, which will lead to a noticeable rebound; the proximity to the lower line of the ascending channel (shown in blue) can also add courage to the bulls.
But for the rebound to develop into a sustainable upward trend, it can be assumed that positive evidence about the state of the European economy will be required.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
US stocks are back leadingWorld markets bottomed on Spetember 2022 and during the recovery, European stocks AMEX:FEZ outperformed US stocks TVC:DJI for 9 months
Nos, for the last 3 months, US stocks are back in the leadership as the DJI/FEZ ratio broke its downtrend back in April; just weeks before the AMEX:FEZ broke its trendline
That is why relative strength is so important, sometimes gives leading signals
And for the last 3 months, energy AMEX:XLE has been the leading sector, with coal being the ledading industry, the thing is that stocks like NYSE:CEIX , NYSE:AMR and NYSE:NRP are already extended
Let's wait for a base formation in these leading stocks
Italy - 3rd Largest Economy in the EUItaly 40 Index - CAPITALCOM:IT40
Made up of 40 of the largest companies in the Italian equity market the Borsa Italiana , the IT40 gives us an idea of how the 3rd largest economy in Europe is performing.
The Chart
- 22 month cycles
- 22 months increasing and then decreasing
- Based on the pattern we are reaching the end of a 22 month period where price is typically up to 30% lower from current level.
- A bearish engulfing monthly candle appears to be forming here. If we close this month with a bearish engulfing candle, history would suggest significant down side will follow.
- We have not lost the 10 month moving average yet which typically offers confirmation of further decline.
Past patterns are no guarantee of a continuation of future patterns however we can watch out for the continuation.
Confirmation signals of significant downside which would be;
- Bearish Engulfing Monthly Candle (end of Aug)
- Losing the 10 month moving average
- In the event of same decline time window once in motion would be Aug - Nov 2023 (based on pattern)
Lets see what happens.
PUKA
European Stocks falls📉 - Whats next?Hi Traders,
the EU50 lost over 3,5% within the last 2 days.
Is this only the first drop before big selloff 📉📉?
Or a normal consildation? Which zones are important?
If we look at the Chart the longterm Uptrend is still valid. So for now it looks like its a normal consolidation.
Important Zones are:
Support: Zone between 4350 and 4300
Resistance: 4500
Also the EMA200 is still moving upwards and the market is right at this zone building a possible reversal (bullish Engulfing).
So there is a possible long trade option.
Wish you maximum success!
Michael - tegasFX
The Turning TidesGermany, Europe's economic powerhouse, has consistently delivered impressive performance since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the European debt crisis. This strong performance is rooted in Germany's strong manufacturing sectors and robust export activities.
The country's economic strength is exemplified by the DAX's considerable outperformance of other European indices since the early 2000s. DAX (Deutscher Aktienindex) is a blue-chip stock market index comprising the 40 largest German companies traded on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Top constituents include internationally renowned firms such as SAP, Siemens, Allianz, Airbus, and Bayer. On the other hand, the STOXX50 index represents a much broader scope, encompassing 50 of the most liquid blue-chip companies in the Eurozone, including ASML, LVMH, and others.
Since the dawn of the new millennium, the DAX index has surged by more than 180%, whereas the STOXX50 is only now approaching pre-2008 GFC levels. The DAX's relative outperformance becomes evident when looking at the regression channel of the ratio between these two indices.
However, the prevailing narrative may be on the cusp of a significant shift. On a closer examination of the factors underpinning Germany's superior performance, it emerges that sector weightings and macroeconomic conditions have played pivotal roles. Notably, the DAX has consistently underweighted financials as compared to the STOXX50 index.
Post-2008, the Eurozone's interest rates have witnessed a consistent downtrend. This period of extraordinarily loose financial conditions and low bond yields, largely a by-product of Quantitative Easing (QE), has favored technology and growth stocks. The main drivers are the availability of cheap capital and a stronger emphasis on growth potential over current valuations. Conversely, the same conditions have exerted considerable pressure on financials, as their earnings capabilities have been seriously compromised. This is precisely why the European banking sector has lagged considerably behind its US counterparts and has yet to recover to pre-GFC levels.
This whole dynamics began to falter last year as inflationary pressures mounted, especially in European countries grappling with additional challenges, such as the Russian-Ukraine war and an energy crisis. The European Central Bank, following in the footsteps of the Federal Reserve and other central banks, finally embarked on a journey to raise interest rates, leading to one of the fastest-paced interest rate increases in modern history.
Furthermore, Germany's export sector is encountering headwinds as the global economy edges closer to a potential recession, triggered by the tightening measures undertaken by central banks. Demand for products such as automobiles is likely to dwindle, particularly from major trading partners like China and the US. On the other hand, a healthier, more normalized yield curve is finally offering some respite to European financial institutions.
This shift could eventually curtail DAX's persistent outperformance compared to other European indices like STOXX50. From a technical perspective, the price action also implies an impending change. The DAX/STOXX50 ratio has arguably completed a Head-and-Shoulder top and is currently sitting on the lower bound of the regression channel. A breakout to the downside could potentially signal the end of a two-decade-long uptrend, leading to a significant reversal in relative performance between DAX and STOXX50.
A hypothetical investor looking to express this view could consider establishing a short Micro DAX and long Micro STOXX50 spread at a notionally equivalent amount. The added advantage of this relative trade is that beta exposure is substantially reduced. For example, if a global recession causes most equity markets to decline, this relative trade could still benefit if the DAX falls more than the STOXX50.
Do note that a spread-trading strategy may incur additional commission fees versus a traditional outright strategy. Hot tip: Phillip Nova is currently offering zero-commission trading of the EUREX Micro-DAX® Futures and Micro-EURO STOXX 50® Futures. Click here to learn more.
To create a notionally equivalent DAX/STOXX50 spread, an investor might short 1 Micro DAX futures (EUR 1 per index point) and go long on 4 Micro STOXX50 futures (EUR 1 per index point). The notional amount of the Micro-DAX futures would approximately be 15,800 EUR. Meanwhile, the notional amount of the 3 STOXX50 futures would approximately be 3 x 4280 = 17,120 EUR. The margin required for each contract of Micro-DAX would be 1,588 EUR while the Micro-STOXX50 would be 380 EUR (as of 10 July 2023).
Disclaimer:
The contents of this Idea are intended for information purposes only and do not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description.
Dark cloud cover in EU50EURTrade Idea: Selling EU50EUR
Reasoning:
• Weekly – Consecutive hanging man candles (Bearish)
• Daily – Bearish dark cloud cover after Fridays break higher (Bearish)
• 4hr – Bearish outside candle at Ichimoku Cloud resistance
• 1hr – Testing Ichimoku cloud support (Neutral/Bullish)
Entry Level: 4285.7
Take Profit Level: 4212.8
Stop Loss: 4310.9
Risk/Reward: 2.89:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe G2H - Selling EU50Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Double top completed on the daily chart. Lower prices expected.
Entry Level: 4253.5
Take Profit Level: 4205
Stop Loss: 4275
Risk/Reward: 2.3/1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head - EU50 Correction expectedTrade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Major resistance on the weekly chart
Entry Level: 4393
Take Profit Level: 4347
Stop Loss: 4412
Risk/Reward: 2.25/1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
EUROSTOXX has incredible upside potential.An often overlooked index, the EURSTOXX has been on a rising 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) since late January. This is a major Bull rally continuation signal as it matches the pattern of four prior uptrends of the past 10 years. The 1W RSI has turned neutral and during Bull Cycles, this is always a strong signal to enter. We are expecting a peak on this rally close to the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
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EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 EURO STOXX 50 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022
We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week.
According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1st percentile.
Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be :
In case of bullish - 2.2%
In case of bearish - 2.3%
With the current IV calculation, we have currently 19.2% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above
or below the next channel:
TOP: 4077
BOT: 3825
At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week:
25% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3980
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 3900
Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 78% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
Euro Stoxx 50 Index bullish extensionEURO STOXX 50 INDEX: Potential for bullish extension towards 3,950 and 4,000 in the short term (5 to 25 days). This can be technically supported by the fact that current price is above its 4 and 40 week moving averages, the clearing above the 3,810 August (17th high) and the facts that both the 4 and 13 week rate of change indicators are above their respective zero lines (above zero), as well as the KST indicator crossing above its signal line. Therefore, long positions can be technically supported for the short term provided price can remain above the 3,810 support.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on EU50Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: Head and shoulders top with a gap fill
Entry Level: 3765
Take Profit Level: 3700
Stop Loss: 3785
Risk/Reward: 3.58:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
DJ EURO STOXX 50 Futures (FESX1!), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseType : Bullish Rise
Resistance : 3851
Pivot: 3744
Support : 3659
Preferred Case: On the H4, with price moving along an ascending trendline and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our pivot at 3744 where the pullback resistance, 78.6% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 3851 where the swing high resistance is.
Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price could drop to 1st support at 3659 where the swing low support and 61.8% fibonacci projection are.
Fundamentals: No Major News
Joe Gun2Head Trade - False breakout on EU50?Trade Idea: Selling EU50
Reasoning: False breakout on EU50? Bears to return ahead of ECB meeting?
Entry Level: 3955
Take Profit Level: 3533
Stop Loss: 3621
Risk/Reward: 2.31:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
🎢Euro Stoxx 50: Eurozone economy will continue to grow●● Preferred count
● SX5E ( TVC ) , 🕐TF: 1W
Fig.1
The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is the main index in the Eurozone. The components of the index are companies that are leaders in their industries - 50 companies from 12 eurozone countries: Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Finland and France.
The main scenario is the continuation of long-term growth within the framework of the cycle wave V .
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● EU50EUR (OANDA) , 🕐TF: 1D
Fig.2
The ascending impulse (1) and the beginning of the subsequent correction (2) of ③ were successfully predicted. At the moment, the threewave corrective phase can be interpreted as a completed A-B-C single zigzag . Growth is expected to resume as part of the third wave.
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● EU50EUR (OANDA) , 🕐TF: 8h
Fig.3
As a local alternative scenario, black marking is proposed, in the context of which wave (2) will become more complicated to a double zigzag W-X-Y . This counting option will become more relevant if the sideways correction stretches in time and takes the shape of a triangle X .
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●● Alternative count
● FESX1!(EUREX) , 🕐TF: 1W
Fig.4
The probability of realization of the given scenario will multiply increase in case of display by a wave B of (Y) of the form of a triangle.
🎯 Interesting points for making trading decisions:
— Breakdown of the orthodox bottom of the wave B of (Y) of Ⓑ ;
— Completion of the zigzag (E) of Ⓑ within black marking;
— Completion of the zigzag Ⓔ of IV within the color marking.
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