EURUSD Under Pressure Focus Shifts to US FOMC MeetingEURUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1.1765
Day Trading Range: 1.1800 - 1.1690
Key Resistance: 1.1760 - 1.1788 - 1.1810 - 1.1835
Key Support: 1.1735 - 1.1718 - 1.1694 - 1.1674
Technical Indicator:
RSI: The indicator shows bullish divergence but still moving around level 50.
Moving Average: SMA 100(1.1735) strong support, SMA 20(1.1756) & SMA 55(1.1757) strong resistance for EURUSD today.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1765 with targets at 1.1728 & 1.1700 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.1765 look for further upside with 1.1780 & 1.1798 as targets.
Fundamental:
The common currency rose to 1.1815 yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) head Mario Draghi took note of the "relatively vigorous" pick-up in the underlying price pressures and rising wage-price inflation. However, he added further that the pick-up in inflation is conditional on interest rates staying low through next summer, dashing hopes of an early rate hike.
As a result, the common currency surrendered gains and ended up creating a bearish outside-day doji, which indicates the rally from the Aug. 15 low of 1.301 has likely run out of steam.
Global markets saw a mixed dollar in North American market hours after ECB President Draghi’s economic update to the EU Parliament sent the euro through 1.18 temporarily on hawkish rhetoric, signaling the ECB’s forward intentions when he explained that “a relatively vigorous pick-up in underlying inflation” was underway, underscoring an improving labor market and signs of shortages, supporting the ECB’s expectations of higher wages. EUR/USD jumped from 1.1750 to 1.1815 – a three-month high – on Draghi’s speech. However completely retraced a few hours later, as ECB chief undercuts his own bullish comments on inflation with warnings over potential effects from protectionism, and also perhaps due to the unease surrounding Italy’s fiscal plans and indeed ahead of the FOMC later this week. The EUR/USD could feel the pull of gravity amid rising treasury yields, having created a big outside-day doji candle yesterday.
EU’s Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom commented that “talks between the EU and the US remain in an exploratory stage, and getting down to the hard details of a limited trade agreement between the two are not going to begin until a trade meeting slated for early November ” while at a United Nations General Assembly.
Investors turn their focus back on this week’s key event risk – the highly anticipated FOMC decision on Wednesday, where the central bank is widely anticipated to raise interest rates by 25bps. The US 10yr treasury yield made a four-month high at 3.09% and the Fed sensitive 2yr yields hit 2.83% to make a fresh high since 2008. The Fed fund futures yields continued to price 100% chance of a hike on Wednesday, while the chance of another hike in Dec is priced at 90%.
On the data front, the German wholesale price index (WPI) is scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT. Further, ECB's Praet is scheduled to speak at 08:25 GMT and ECB's Coeure is due to speak at 12:00 GMT.
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YoCryptoManic
Eurotoday
EURUSD in Confusing stage & waiting for US Strong Data TodayEURUSD Technical Overview:
Day Trading Range: 1.1730 - 1.1610
Pivot: 1.1690 (CMP 1.1684)
Key Resistance: 1.1690 - 1.1718 - 1.1735 - 1.1760
Key Support: 1.1668 - 1.1645 - 1.1620 - 1.1600
Technical Indicators:
RSI: Indicator lacks downward momentum, moving around 50-55 level.
MACD: MacD having Bullish trend line.
Moving Average: SMA 100 (1.1674) & SMA 55 (1.1681) are strong support for the pair today.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1690 with targets at 1.1668 & 1.1645 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.1690 look for further upside with 1.1718 & 1.1732 as targets.
Fundamental:
A combination of increased risk appetite and a pullback in the treasury yields could yield much-needed break above 1.17. The price action in early Asian market hours indicates neutral bias as both sides of pair struggle to gain upper hand. The failure to scale the psychological level of 1.17 in a convincing manner is likely associated with the rising Treasury yields and the widening US-DE (German) two-year yield spread. Traders also noted that U.S. macro economic data has remained very strong so far despite trade disputes since early this year.
Europe
>> The ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver the keynote speech at an event entitled "Making Europe's Economic Union work" organized by Jacques Delors Institute, Hertie School of Governance, Bertelsmann Stiftung in Berlin at 13:30 GMT.
>> The Eurozone consumer confidence is expected to fall to -2.0 in September.
>> German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is scheduled to deliver a speech titled "Perspectives for Europe and the euro area" at the Center for European Politics, in Freiburg at 15:15 GMT.
US
>> The US housing starts rose strong 9.2% m/m in August while building permits decreased -5.7% m/m in the same month.
>> The US initial jobless claims are expected to increase to 210K in the week ending September 14.
>> Philadelphia Fed index is expected to increase to 17.0 in September from 11.9 in August.
A break under 1.1650 could change the short-term bias to the downside, exposing the pair to support levels at 1.1625-1.1600 handles. As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1650, another test of 1.1720 could take place. Above the next strong barrier is seen at 1.1745/50, a medium-term resistance that if broken would clear the way to more gains.
Thanks
YoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD looking Range tarding Breakout TodayEURUSD Technical Overview:
Pivot: 1.1685
Day Trading Range: 1.1630 - 1.1740
Key Resistance: 1.1698 - 1.1722 - 1.1735 - 1.1748
Key Support: 1.1685 - 1.1668 - 1.1645 - 1.1610
Technical Indicator:
RSI: RSI facing toward upside moving above 50 level.
Moving Average: SMA200 (1.1633) & SMA100 (1.1670) strong support for EURUSD.
Technical Trade Idea:
Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1685 with targets at 1.1645 & 1.1628 in extension.
Alternative scenario: above 1.1685 look for further upside with 1.1715 & 1.1735 as targets.
Fundamental:
The pair regained some positive traction during the Asian session on Wednesday, albeit remained well below the 1.1700 handle as investors continue to assess the latest escalation of US-China trade tensions. There isn’t any market-moving economic data due for release from the Euro-zone, while the US economic docket offers housing market data – building permits and housing starts. The range bound price action is expected to continue in near future as the spread between the US and German bond yields for 10-year bonds currently stands at 257 basis points – the highest level since Aug. 8.
The daily chart of the EUR/USD is flashing a bullish reversal pattern, but a breakout may remain elusive, as the bond yield differentials are rising in the EUR-negative manner.
Today In US Session Mr Draghi speech more important for pair.
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YoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD Boost From ECB UpdateEURUSD Technical Analysis
Day Trading Range: 1.1635 - 1.1755
Pivot: 1.1665
Key Support: 1.1690 - 1.1665 - 1.1635 - 1.1600
Key Resistance: 1.1720 - 1.1735 - 1.1752 - 1.1775
Technical Indicators:
MACD: MacD is having Strong Bullish volume.
Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1624) & SMA200 (1.1570) Strong Support for EURUSD.
Technical Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1665 with targets at 1.1718 & 1.1735 in extension.
Technical Alternative scenario: below 1.1665 look for further downside with 1.1635 & 1.1605 as targets.
Fundamental:
The EUR/USD has found acceptance above the 100-day moving average for the first time since April 25. The common currency picked up a strong bid yesterday after the European Central Bank (ECB) sounded optimistic about prospects for inflation, bolstering the already bullish technical setup.
Today’s data is US meets expectation the possibility for USD to gain upper hand against EURO before market closes on Friday is very low as it will scale down investors’ expectations for faster Fed rate hikes. Meanwhile, an above-forecast reading would reinforce expectations that domestic demand would cushion the US economy from external shocks and could put a bid under the USD. Risk sentiment in market has died down a bit as President Trump tweeted that he felt no pressure to do a trade deal with China, causing some unwind of the positive risk sentiment despite his government reaching out to China for trade related talks.
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YoCryptoManic