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Gold Intraday Buy Setup from Key Support Zone| Targeting 3333 48This 15-minute chart for XAUUSD shows price reacting from a support zone after a bearish structure break. The market formed a bullish candle at support, hinting at a potential reversal. Key levels: - Key Point: 3333 – a crucial resistance to break for bullish continuation. - 1st Target: 3333 – aligning with the key point, a breakout here would confirm buyer strength. - 2nd Target: 3348 – next major resistance level. - All Time High zone is above this level, signaling a potential longer-term bullish push if broken. The current price action suggests buyers may step in from this support, aiming first for 3333 and then possibly extending to 3348. Based on the chart setup and price structure: 🟢 Buy Setup (From Support Zone): - Entry: Around 3318–3315 (current price area) - Stop Loss (SL): 3305 (just below the support zone to allow some buffer) - Take Profits (TPs): - TP1: 3333 (near key point resistance — secure partials here) - TP2: 3348 (major resistance zone — potential full target) --- 🔐 Risk Management Suggestion: - Risk-to-reward ratio: ~1:1 for TP1, ~2:1 for TP2 - Once TP1 is hit, consider moving SL to entry to secure the trade.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
6
EuroDollar : When Does the Dust Settle? Tariffs 25'Rather quiet to begin the week as the EuroDollar remains unchanged during the Initial 3 sessions of the week. A "Doji" Daily Candle printed, informing us those of us more technically minded to write off the day's price behavior and look to preceding candles for indication of future direction. It is important to note the longer top wick of 38.5 pips versus the 23.5 pips bottom wick. We can observe yet another daily candle wicking into the Weekly level 1.087. This Price remains very important in the short term because it may facilitate a pullback on EurUsd to the downside. This follows a historic Week of volatility for the EuroDollar as Trumps Tariffs shook the markets to say the least. If we are considering Bullish targets for the week, Daily Level 1.093 , or even Daily Level 1.098 which would be the most generous for buyers. When fundamentals are this strong, it's more difficult to discount those larger, irrational moves that you see in the markets sometimes. So although one could argue how over-extended the EuroDollar is, we must remember the game we are playing. In Considering Bearish targets, a retest of Daily Support level 1.0786 seems reasonable. A Deeper retracement could see price around 1.0694 , the beginning of Last Tuesdays very clean bullish NY session. A pullback seems technically sound, considering the outlier and extent of last weeks upside move. Job Openings on Tuesday is the appetizer to the Inflation CPI data on Wednesday which will surely see some volatility rock these already rattled markets. CPI/Inflation is forecasted to Cool for the Dollar which technically supports more strength for the Euro and a further upside push for this pair. Please Leave a rocket or comment if you enjoyed this Analysis. Have a good trading week !
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
1
"STOXX50/EURO50" Index Market Money Heist (Day / Swing Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "STOXX50/EURO50" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green MA Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸"Take profit and treat yourself, traders. You deserve it!💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the MA breakout then make your move at (4500) - Bearish profits await!" however I advise to Place sell stop orders above the Moving average (or) after the Support level Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most NEAREST (or) SWING low or high level for Pullback entries. 📌I strongly advise you to set an "alert (Alarm)" on your chart so you can see when the breakout entry occurs. Stop Loss 🛑: "🔊 Yo, listen up! 🗣️ If you're lookin' to get in on a sell stop order, don't even think about settin' that stop loss till after the breakout 🚀. You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you to 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just don't say I didn't warn you ⚠️. You're playin' with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine 👊." 📌Thief SL placed at the nearest/swing High or Low level Using the 4H timeframe (4800) Day/Swing trade basis. 📌SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 4200 (or) Escape Before the Target "STOXX50/EURO50" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Day / Swing Trade) is currently experiencing a Bearish trend.., driven by several key factors.👇👇👇 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Geopolitical and News Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Index-Specific Analysis, Positioning and future trend targets... go ahead to check 👉👉👉🔗🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
VELOCITY:STOXX50Short
by Thief_Trader
EUR /USD) bearish trand analysis Read The ChaptianSMC Trading point update This chart presents a technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on a 1-hour timeframe. Here's the breakdown and idea behind the analysis: Chart Analysis Summary: 1. Trend Structure: The price was in a downtrend, moving within a descending channel. Recently, the price has rejected the upper boundary of the channel (noted as "down reject"). There's a 200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) acting as dynamic support around the 1.09086 level. Mr SMC Trading point 2. Support Zone: A strong demand zone (highlighted in yellow) is visible near the 1.08183 area. This zone aligns with previous structure support and a potential reversal point. 3. RSI Indicator: RSI is around 49, showing a neutral to slightly bearish momentum. No overbought/oversold signals yet, suggesting room for further downside before a reversal. 4. Projection Idea: The analyst expects a possible short-term drop into the yellow support zone (target: 1.08183). After reaching the target, a bullish reversal is anticipated, aiming for a breakout above the downtrend with a rally towards the 1.10500+ zone. Trading Idea: Short-Term Bearish Move: Sell toward 1.08183 if price confirms rejection of the trendline or 200 EMA. Medium-Term Bullish Reversal: Watch for bullish confirmation (e.g., engulfing candle, RSI divergence) at the 1.08183 zone to go long toward higher highs. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
2
"STOXX50 / EURO 50" Indices Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade)🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑💰✈️ Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "STOXX50 / EURO 50" Index CFD Market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Book Profits Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉 Entry 📈 : "The vault is wide open! Swipe the Bearish loot at any price - the heist is on! however I advise to Place sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe most recent or swing, low or high level. Stop Loss 🛑: (5450) Thief SL placed at the recent/swing high or low level Using the 2H timeframe swing / day trade basis. SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many multiple orders you have to take. Target 🎯: 5200 (or) Escape Before the Target 🧲Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰. "STOXX50 / EURO 50" Index CFD Market Heist Plan (Swing/Day) is currently experiencing a bearishness,., driven by several key factors. 📰🗞️Get & Read the Fundamental, Macro, COT Report, Quantitative Analysis, Sentimental Outlook, Intermarket Analysis, Future trend targets.. go ahead to check 🔎👉👉👉🔗 ⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏 As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions, we recommend the following: Avoid taking new trades during news releases Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits 💖Supporting our robbery plan 💥Hit the Boost Button💥 will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀 I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
ICMARKETS:STOXX50Short
by Thief_Trader
EURUSD Bearish Correction Resistance Rejection Support TargeTTrading point update This chart provides a technical analysis of EUR/USD on the 3-hour timeframe with key insights: Analysis & Expectations 1. Overbought Condition & Rejection Price reached a strong resistance zone (highlighted in yellow) around 1.11425 - 1.10751, leading to a sharp rejection. The RSI is in the overbought zone (~68.43) and showing a downward slope, indicating a potential bearish correction. Mr SMC Trading point 2. Expected Bearish Correction A potential drop is expected toward the support level around 1.08501 - 1.07925, aligning with past price action. The 200 EMA (1.07757) also serves as a significant support level, reinforcing a possible retracement. 3. Target Levels Short-term Bearish Target: 1.08501 (Support level) Key Support Zone: 1.07925 - 1.07757 (Near 200 EMA) Conclusion The analysis suggests a bearish retracement after the strong bullish move. Traders may look for short opportunities targeting the support level and 200 EMA while watching for confirmation signals before entering. Pales support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Short
by SMC-Trading-Point
1
Euro Rises Above $1.09 Despite Tariff ThreatsThe euro climbed above $1.09, showing unexpected strength after President Trump announced 20% tariffs on all EU imports. ◉ Fundamental Rationale ● The currency got a boost because the U.S. dollar weakened. Trump’s tariffs made trade tensions worse and worried people about slower economic growth. ● Also, new numbers showed Eurozone inflation fell to 2.2% in March, the lowest since November 2024. ● This lower inflation means the European Central Bank doesn’t need to raise interest rates, making the euro more appealing to investors. ◉ Technical Observation ● From a technical perspective, an inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, hinting at a possible trend reversal. ● A breakout above $1.095 could pave the way for stronger bullish momentum.
Long
by NaranjCapital
Euro at Critical Demand – Is the Trend About to Flip?Euro reached an important zone for my setup, triggering a long position. Although it’s still trending below the fibcloud on the 4H timeframe, we’ve seen a solid 0.5% recovery from the recent low. I’m looking for this area to hold as support, with defined risk in case the setup invalidates. Technicals: • Price tapped into a major 4H support level where liquidity historically steps in. • The current move marks a 0.5% bounce from the low, showing early signs of demand. • Still trading below the fibcloud, but a reclaim of that zone would open the path toward 1.0850. • Setup includes a stop-loss below the most recent wick low, with a clear structure to build a higher low. Fundamentals: EUR-side strength: • ECB maintains a slower pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed. • Growth and inflation in the Eurozone are still challenges, but the ECB’s hawkish stance continues to support medium-term EUR strength. • The ECB may hike another 150 bps to reach a 4% terminal rate, which favors EUR upside. USD-side risks: • Trump announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all car imports, including from the EU-adding geopolitical and trade uncertainty. • Traders remain cautious around further escalation in US-EU trade tensions. • US Initial Jobless Claims later today could bring weakness to the dollar if the data disappoints. In short, while the USD remains resilient, the EUR fundamentals and the current technical zone make this a compelling spot for a bounce. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Long
by AR33_
Euro/USD faces rejection - Is a Bounce from Key Support Next?The EUR/USD remains in a daily downtrend and has now rejected from its previous lower high, confirming it as a strong resistance level. After sweeping the liquidity above this zone, the pair faced selling pressure and has started to decline, signaling a potential continuation of the bearish trend. However, there is a key area of interest below—the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, which are currently aligning with a major support zone. This confluence makes the area a potential bounce zone, where buyers may step in to defend the level. If price finds support here, it could trigger a bullish reaction, offering a chance for a short-term reversal or even a shift in momentum. Thanks for your support. - Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis! - Drop a like and leave a comment!
by Youriverse
18
Gold Bearish Setup–Head & Shoulders Breakdown target 2990This setup on the 1-hour chart of XAUUSD presents a head and shoulders pattern, which is a well-known reversal formation indicating a potential bearish move. Key Observations: 1. Head and Shoulders Formation - The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are clearly marked. - The neckline of the pattern has already been broken, confirming the bearish bias. - Price is currently retesting the neckline, which often acts as resistance after a breakout. 2. Sell Entry Zone (3028 Region) - The marked sell entry is positioned around 3028, which aligns with the neckline retest. - If price rejects this level, it confirms seller dominance and increases the probability of a continuation downward. - A strong rejection candle at this level could be a good confirmation to enter a short position. 3. Bearish Targets: - First Target: 3004 - This level represents a strong demand zone where buyers previously stepped in. - A reaction may occur here, but if momentum remains bearish, price could continue lower. - Second Target: 2988 - This is a deeper support area where price could head if selling pressure remains strong. - This level aligns with previous liquidity zones and a key structure support area. Bearish Confirmation Signals to Watch: - Rejection candles (wicks, bearish engulfing, or pin bars) at 3028 - Break of minor support levels with strong volume - Failure of buyers to reclaim the neckline zone (3028 region) Invalidation of Bearish Bias: - If gold closes above 3028 and sustains above this level, it could invalidate the bearish setup. - A break above the right shoulder zone would signal potential bullish continuation. Sell Entry: Around 3028 (Neckline Retest) First Target: 3004 (Initial Support Zone) Second Target: 2988 (Major Support Level)
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
1
EUROUSD TRADING POINT UPDATE > READ THE CHAPTIAN Buddy'S dear friend SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ Euro USD Traders SMC-Trading Point update you on New technical analysis setup for Euro USD ) Euro USD Technical patterns support level pullback up trend 📈🚀 1.08254 strong 🪨 support level target 🎯 point Resistance level 1.09580 good luck 💯💯 Key Resistance level 1.09580 Key Support 1.08254 Mr SMC Trading point Palee support boost 🚀 analysis follow)
Long
by SMC-Trading-Point
EURUSD Bulls Eyeing FOMC–Will Powell’s Dovish Tone Fuel a Rally?As we approach the much-anticipated FOMC rate decision and Powell’s press conference , market sentiment is shifting, and EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) traders are closely watching for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next move . With recent economic data pointing to signs of slowing growth and cooling inflation, the Fed might adopt a more dovish tone , fueling further upside for EURUSD . Key Factors Driving the Bullish Outlook : Inflation & Economic Data : CPI and PPI data indicate a gradual cooling of inflation, which strengthens the case for a potential rate cut later this year. If Powell acknowledges this shift, it could weigh on the dollar. Market Pricing of Rate Cuts : Investors are already pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts for 2024. A dovish Powell could accelerate these expectations, weakening USD and pushing the EURUSD higher. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Now let's take a look at the EURUSD chart on the 2-hour time frame . EURUSD is moving near the Resistance zone($1.0983-$1.0916) and Yearly Resistance(1) . Regarding Elliott Wave theory , it seems that EURUSD has managed to complete the main wave 4 . The structure of the main wave 4 is the Double Three Correction(WXY) . The main wave 5 is likely to complete near the upper line of the ascending channel(possible) and Monthly Resistance(4) . I expect EURUSD to rise in the coming hours to the targets I have indicated on the chart, although the Federal Reserve Conference could create long shadows , but I think the supply and demand zones will still work but still pay more attention to money management today . Note: If EURUSD can break below the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) , there is a possibility of further decline in EURUSD. Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree. Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 2-hour time frame. Be sure to follow the updated ideas. Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
3
EUROUSD 4H LONG (ALL Targets DONE)This position worked perfectly. Now it is important to wait for the correction structure, as it was indicated in the previous update post: Considering the current formations on the 1D TF, the probability of price growth to the current maximum increases multiple times. Locally, I expect to see a price correction (a rollback next week) and preferably with a depiction of a bullish imbalance. After which, you can work long for a whole month until 1.12758
by PHONKTRADER
EUR/USD – Bullish, But Time to Breathe!🚀 EUR/USD – Bullish, But Time to Breathe! 🚀 “Momentum is strong, but even the best trends need to take a breath before the next leg up.” 🔥 Key Insights: ✅ Bullish Structure Intact – No reason to fight the trend. ✅ Overextended Move – Markets don’t go up in a straight line; pullbacks create better entries. ✅ Healthy Retracement = Stronger Continuation – Chasing here is risky, waiting for a dip is smart. 💡 The Plan: Wait for a Pullback Before Longs – Let price reset, don’t rush in. Watch Volume Profile & CDV for Buyer Confirmation – Smart money leaves clues. Ideal Entry = Lower Support Levels Holding – We want a strong base for the next move up. “Patience is key. Let the market give you the perfect entry—not every green candle is a buy!” 🚀💶 I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions. My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all, but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups. If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge. I have a long list of my proven technique below: 🎯 ZENUSDT.P: Patience & Profitability | %230 Reaction from the Sniper Entry 🐶 DOGEUSDT.P: Next Move 🎨 RENDERUSDT.P: Opportunity of the Month 💎 ETHUSDT.P: Where to Retrace 🟢 BNBUSDT.P: Potential Surge 📊 BTC Dominance: Reaction Zone 🌊 WAVESUSDT.P: Demand Zone Potential 🟣 UNIUSDT.P: Long-Term Trade 🔵 XRPUSDT.P: Entry Zones 🔗 LINKUSDT.P: Follow The River 📈 BTCUSDT.P: Two Key Demand Zones 🟩 POLUSDT: Bullish Momentum 🌟 PENDLEUSDT.P: Where Opportunity Meets Precision 🔥 BTCUSDT.P: Liquidation of Highly Leveraged Longs 🌊 SOLUSDT.P: SOL's Dip - Your Opportunity 🐸 1000PEPEUSDT.P: Prime Bounce Zone Unlocked 🚀 ETHUSDT.P: Set to Explode - Don't Miss This Game Changer 🤖 IQUSDT: Smart Plan ⚡️ PONDUSDT: A Trade Not Taken Is Better Than a Losing One 💼 STMXUSDT: 2 Buying Areas 🐢 TURBOUSDT: Buy Zones and Buyer Presence 🌍 ICPUSDT.P: Massive Upside Potential | Check the Trade Update For Seeing Results 🟠 IDEXUSDT: Spot Buy Area | %26 Profit if You Trade with MSB 📌 USUALUSDT: Buyers Are Active + %70 Profit in Total 🌟 FORTHUSDT: Sniper Entry +%26 Reaction 🐳 QKCUSDT: Sniper Entry +%57 Reaction 📊 BTC.D: Retest of Key Area Highly Likely I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
Long
by UmutTrades
BTC/USD Bullish Breakout Setup – Targets & Stop-Loss StrategyThis BTC/USD 4-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle formation, with price respecting both the ascending trendline and descending resistance. The price is currently near the support of the triangle and could make another move toward equilibrium before testing the upper trendline. Key levels and target - Resistance at 90,726 (target area ). - Support at the ascending trendline and weak low at 78,913. - A breakout above the triangle resistance could lead to bullish momentum toward 94,818 . A reaction at equilibrium may decide whether BTC continues consolidating or breaks out. Keep an eye on volume and momentum for confirmation. 1. 90,726 – A key resistance level and the first bullish target. 2. 94,818 – If BTC breaks above the first target, this level could be the next upside resistance. 83,500 – A safer stop-loss level below recent swing lows, reducing the chances of getting stopped out by short-term volatility. A breakout above the symmetrical triangle with strong momentum could push BTC toward these levels. Watch for confirmation at the equilibrium zone and a successful breakout for further upside movement.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Will We See the Euro Trading Below Par?CME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) #Microfutures Since the US election last November, the Euro currency has lost ground against the US dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate sliding from 1.08 to as low as 1.02. A combination of new policies from the Trump administration aims to strengthen the dollar. Recent efforts to end the geopolitical crisis will not support the euro. On the contrary, they could push the European common currency below the critical 1-dollar level. Quick Review of the EUR/USD Price Trend The euro has swung widely against central bank policies and geopolitical events: • 2020: The Fed implemented massive stimulus measures in response to the pandemic. Lowering interest rates and increasing money supply reduced the value of the USD • 2021: The faster vaccine rollout and quicker reopening of the US economy boosted economic growth and investor sentiment towards the USD • 2022: (1) The Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation, making the USD more attractive to investors compared to the Euro. (2) Europe faced an energy crisis due to its dependence on Russian gas. This crisis led to economic uncertainty and weakened the euro. (3) Ongoing geopolitical tensions created economic instability in Europe, further weakening the euro against the USD • Q4 2022 and 2023: European Central Bank abandoned its long-held zero-rate policy in September 2022. It raised rates eight times to 4.00%. These actions narrowed the interest rate differentials between the US and Europe, and helped the euro rebound • 2024: The EUR/USD moved mainly sideways in the range of 1.06 and 1.12. Fed easing and rebounds of US inflation contributed to the mild volatility. • Q4 2024 to Current. Dollar ascended quickly after the election win of Donald Trump. Investors expect strong dollar with the support of the new America First policies Ukraine Peace Talks and Possible Outcomes On February 12th, Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to immediately start negotiations to end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On February 18th, US and Russian officials held peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The two sides agreed to create a high-level team to lead the Ukraine peace talks. Neither Ukraine nor the EU participated in the meeting. How the peace talks would progress remain highly uncertain. Using Game Theory, we could break them down into two mutually exclusive and collectively inclusive outcomes: • Peace: US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU sign a peace agreement to end the conflict and ensure long-lasting peace. Whether it will be a fair treaty is a hotly debated topic. • No-Peace: Peace talks break down. The 3-year-long conflict continues. This could last for years but eventually will lead to a win/loss outcome or a draw. From an investing perspective, “No-Peace” is equivalent to “Risk On”. It may imply higher gold prices, higher energy costs and lower equity value. Meanwhile, “Peace” means “Risk Off”. We may see declining gold, lower oil and gas, and rising stock prices. However, it would be difficult to pick the price direction if we can’t predict the outcome. Peace or No Peace – A Steep Cost for Europe For better or worse, the recent events are a wakeup call to European countries. The US had defense spending totaling $967 billion in 2024, which is 3.49% of its GDP. For a comparison, the total defense spending for EU member states reached $358 billion in 2024. This represents around 1.9% of the EU's GDP • The US accounted for 73% of the defense spending in the 32 countries in NATO • Since 2022, the US contributed to 2/3 of all the financial aids sending to Ukraine The US administration intends to cut its financial support. Europe will have to increase defense spending dramatically. In a worst case, a complete breakdown in Cross-Atlantic relations could see the US exiting NATO and all US troops withdrawing from Europe. How much is the spending gap? In 2024, Russia had defense budget of $462 billion, or 6.7% of its GDP. Ukraine had defense budget of $40 billion, or 22% of its GDP. • EU plus Ukraine spent $64 billion less than Russia in defense budget. In my opinion, in a Peace scenario and with reduced US involvement, the EU defense budget must surpass that of Russia to ensure Ukraine to stay on top. I find this to be 2.5% of GDP. This means a 32% increase or $471 billion in total defense spending. For No-Peace, the EU will be fighting an active war. NATO will need to maintain a standing army of 1 million troops and rebuild an entire defense industry. In this scenario, I feel that the defense budget needs to double 5% of GDP. budget to raise a large army and rebuild an entire defense industry. This means a 163% increase or $942 billion in total defense spending. If the above numbers sound outrageous, Israel, a country constantly fighting for its survival, will serve as a good refence point. In 2024, Israel's defense spending amounted to 117.5 billion Israeli shekels (around $32.5 billion USD), which is 6.7% of its GDP. The EU has an estimated GDP growth at 0.9% in 2024 and a forecast growth of 1.5% in 2025. The defense budget increase will cause mandatory cuts in non-defense spending. The combined effect will be negative, pushing GDP growth into a negative territory. In my opinion, re-arming Europe is critical to its survival. However, defense buildup comes at a steep cost. The expectations of lower GDP growth will push the value of Euro currency lower, likely below the 1-dollar critical level. Commitment of Traders shows diminishing bullish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 11th, total Open Interest (OI) for CME Euro FX Futures is 622,873 contracts. “Asset Manager” (i.e., hedge funds) own 338,182 in Long, 177,937 in Short and 35,597 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 1.9:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 1,014 while increasing short positions by 2,249. • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on the Euro. Trade Setup with Micro Euro/USD Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the CME Micro Euro/USD Futures ($M6E). M6E contracts have a notional value of 12,500 euro. With February 19th settlement price of 1.0435, each March contract (M6EH5) has a notional value of $13,044. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $260. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March M6E contract and the euro drops to $0.99. A short futures position would gain $668.75 (= (1.0435 – 0.99) x $12500). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +257% (= 668.75 / 260). The risk of shorting euro futures is rising euro. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set a stop-loss at 1.06 when entering the short order at 1.0435. If euro rebounds, the maximum loss would be $206.25 ( = (1.06 – 1.0435) *12500). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
DXY - Looking to Big PictureWhen we look back, when Trump first came, Dxy showed a 5.5% increase, Dxy goes to 103.5. And Trump Dxy is too expensive, the dollar is too expensive, it should fall, the statements started. Then Dxy's 14% decrease went to 88.5. Now Dxy is around 102. I bought it directly as a fractal from August 15, 2016. If Dxy comes to around 104 until the election, the rapid increase with Trump's arrival corresponds to 110s. It has been an expected area for a long time and when Trump Dxy is at 110s, similarly, if the decrease starts with him saying the dollar is too expensive, it goes to 94s, fractal. Here, my hopes begin and I say that it is still expensive at those levels, we will go down to 86s. This means a 4-year never-ending mega bull. I applied the same fractal to the euro, and the much-anticipated 1.02s are here again. If I can get a fund, I will look for swing shorts at 1.12s. The fractal and events looked pretty good to me. It also fit the channel nicely. FX:EURUSD
TVC:DXY
by mooniron
1
**DXY Approaching Key Resistance – Potential Sell Setup**This DXY 1-hour chart suggests a potential sell opportunity around the 108.400 resistance zone. The price is approaching the marked "Possible to sell zone," and the analysis indicates waiting for bearish confirmation before entering a short position. Key Observations: - **Resistance Zone:** 108.400 area acts as a key resistance, previously causing reversals. - **Bearish Confirmation:** Suggested before entering a sell position. - **Downside Targets:** - **First Target:** 107.749 - **Second Target:** 107.444 - **Final Target:** 106.951 If price rejects this resistance with bearish price action, it could confirm a short setup. Conversely, a breakout above 108.400 may invalidate the bearish outlook.
TVC:DXYShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1