EURO to Dollar down Fundamentally the Euro is weak against the USD: crisis in Italy, problems in Greece, the last IFO projection (for exports) negative, zero interest rates, ...
The technical analysis confirms this view.
From 1.23$ (per Euro) it fell rapidly and reached the support zone between 1.14 and 1.16$.
On the lower side of this zone is a fib retracement 38,2%; above there is another fib retracement from the lowering trend at 78.6%.
This should be a strong support level.
The relative strength index RSI signals oversold reaction - a consolidation is probable.
From this deep level the Euro could recover and rise up to 1.20$ before tumbling back and falling even deeper than before; this time heading the parity with the USD.
In EW theory the third wave (C) is often the final corrective wave. But I can also imagine that another wave (D) and (E) could follow before the final countdown for the EURO will have started.
In the long run I think the Euro will lose against the majority of fiat currencies. I don´t think that the Euro-System is solid.
