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EURGBP: Anticipating On A Strong Pound In The FutureWelcome traders around the world to this new trading idea! We are looking at the EURGBP pair today and looking for short positions on this pair. The two horizontal black lines do mark a daily gap, which was filled with the latest price moves. Price did form a new peak high during this uptrend and we want price to do a nice top before its breaks down. Trend line is already broken but this has not that much value as price action is my preferred tool. Also in our favor we can see that other GBP/XXX pairs, which have been weak lately are recovering. So correlation indicates that EURGBP will be bearish with a strong Pound in the future. Lets see how this works out and wishing everyone a successful trading week!
Short
by darian_fx
Dollar, 15 years of war, the terrible May & resignation of MayYesterday was quite volatile. Actually, nothing fundamentally new has happened. First of all, the pound has traditionally updated the new local minima. Theresa May’s resignation seems to have already been resolved for the markets. According to The Times, May will announce her resignation today (Boris Johnson probably will take her place). Despite such an obvious fundamental negative, we believe that the worst has already happened and taken into account the current price of a pound by the markets. So, any changes in the UK will benefit the British currency. Therefore, today we will continue to look for points for pound buying on the intraday basis and in the medium-term. Meanwhile, analysts are continuing to assess the potential effect of the trade war escalation between the United States and China. In this regard, quite interesting is the assessment of the chief researcher of the Chinese Center for International Economic Exchanges, who said that the United States and China are moving into a new reality of mutual relations, which can be called “fight and talk”. And it will last not for a month, two months or a year. According to Zhang Yansheng, this state will last for many years and will end no earlier than 2035. According to the expert, exactly that period of time deemed necessary to move from “irrational confrontation” to “rational cooperation”. The forecast is pessimistic, but it makes you think that the current reality is something serious and for a long time. Meanwhile, May was just a nightmare for the technology sector in China. Here is an instance: Tencent Holdings Ltd., Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. the lost over a month is $ 170 billion of capitalization (!!!). A block of data on business activity indices in Europe and the USA was published yesterday. The situation is "not ok" in Europe. The PMI in the manufacturing sector in Germany is still below 50 (value for May 44.3). Germany's IFO Expectations Index is at 4-year lows. So, the main economy of the Eurozone seems frankly unhealthy. At the same time, the Composite PMI index for the Eurozone appeared slightly worse than expected, but it turned out to be above 50 (value for May is 51.6). So, for the euro buyers, there’s nothing to rejoice at. Moreover, the data from the United States appeared even worse. Sales of new houses in the US fell by 6.9% to 673 thousand units in April. At the same time, the PMI index of business activity US manufacturing fell to 50.6 points in May (compared with 52.6 in April). This is the lowest value since September 2009. Against this background, oil continued to crumble. Those readers who listened to our advice and recommendations should have earned good money this week. Our trading positions on the last day of the week did not change much: we will look for points for buying the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we start buying a pound.
by Trade24Fx
Euro & pound weakness, oil and our recommendationsMacroeconomic statistics came out better than expected on Thursday, even the fact that data on Eurozone balance crossed the “+” level did not help the euro. The euro was under pressure and below 1.1200 again. That is not a reason for panic. The US will not impose additional tariffs on European automotive industry’s products it means that the States has decided not to escalate the trade war’s pressure with China. For the euro, this is definitely a good signal. So our position on the euro today is buying EURUSD below 1,1200. The same problems the pound was suffering from. The pound is depressing against euro 9 days in a row. That has not been observed since 2000. Markets are still discounted under another failure on Parliament voting agreement on withdrawal. We recommend staying away with buying the pound even if you noticed that entry points become more attractive. We are waiting for better entry points. However, the most impatient traders could open a long position on the pound starting with current prices. Oil continued to grow yesterday. The reason - the aggravation of the situation in the Middle East. This refers to the increase in tension between the United States and Iran. Despite the fact that oil is going to close the current week with a solid “plus”, we recall that this may be a swan song of an uptrend before a prolonged fall. Recall, International Energy Agency reminds us that things are going not that great on the oil market. The concern about world oil demand reduction in 2019. The sharp increase in oil reserves in the United States (grew by 5.4 million over the week). Our plan for trading on Friday is as follows: we will look for points for buying the euro and the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying gold and the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
US vs China, Trump vs Fed, and a tough week aheadLast week was marked by uncertainty about the resolution of the US and Chinese trade wars. Trump took a rather aggressive stance, resulting in an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 200 billion to 25% China has not responded yet, but only expressed regret. And the experience shows that " respond " is inevitable. For instance, in the form of restrictions on the export of agricultural products from the United States. As for the negotiation process, despite the fact that the Chinese delegation arrived in Washington, it did not achieve success. In our previous reviews, we have already noted that a strong dollar is one of the factors that level the effect of US trade restrictions. We were waiting for Trump to return to the old topic - pressure on the Fed to force the Central Bank to lower interest rates. On Friday, the President of the United States on Twitter collapsed with another piece of criticism on the Fed. In particular, he noted that the Central Bank raised interest rates when there was no real need for this (inflation was quite low), resulting in an overdose of monetary tightening. Further, Trump said that the United States has the potential to literally “take off” in terms of economic growth if the Fed lowers the rate by at least 1%. Not surprisingly, the dollar was under pressure on Friday. If Trump continues to develop this theme, markets may well revise their expectations on the parameters of US monetary policy in the direction of its easing. Moreover, Friday's data on consumer inflation in the United States came out lower than expected and on an annualized basis amounted to exactly 2% (inflationary target of the Fed). So this week we will continue to sell the dollar. But, naturally, we will follow the news development. We note that the UK GDP came out in the framework of forecasts on Friday. The figures for industrial production were pleasantly surprised (+ 0.7% with a forecast of + 0.1%). The buyers of the Canadian dollar were pleased with the data on the labor market in Canada. Changes in the number of employees exceeded the most ambitious and positive expectations: + 106.5K with the forecast of + 10K, the unemployment rate also came out better than expected. So the strengthening of the Canadian currency was fully justified. As for the upcoming week, it is definitely not worth relaxing. News of trade wars and negotiations between the US and China will remain in the center of events, also the macroeconomic statistics (data on the UK labor market on Tuesday, GDP in the Eurozone and consumer inflation in Canada and retail sales in the United States on Wednesday; statistics on Australia’s labor market on Thursday and finally Eurozone inflation statistics on Friday) will be published. Considering how events developed last week, our positions for the current week are as follows: we will look for points to buy the Australian and Canadian dollars and the euro against the dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.
Long
by Trade24Fx
Where investors will run to? OPEC +, it’s time to buy euroQuite unclear statistics on personal income and expenses in the United States appeared on Monday. The first one came out worse than expected, and the second - better. In addition, Europe has reported a low level of consumer confidence. Firstly, the euro is very cheap, and secondly, today we are waiting for data on the GDP of the Eurozone and a data block for Germany. Societe Generale recommends analysts to buy EURUSD with targets of 1.16. The reason - hopes for improving the economic situation in the Eurozone. Nouriel Roubini (American economist, a professor at NYU's Stern School of Business) broke out with apocalyptic predictions about the future recession in the global economy and the early flight of investors into safe assets. Among the possible triggers of global problems, Roubini calls the huge debts accumulated by countries, especially the US, trade wars between the US and China, the bad shape of the Eurozone economy, the political risks of developing countries (Turkey, Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, etc.), as well as unpredictable Trump’s actions on the eve of the 2020 elections in the United States. In this light, we recall our recommendations for buying gold. If investors run, then this is determined by one of their goals. Meanwhile, OPEC + is trying to stop the start of the correction in the oil market. In particular, Russian President Putin announced the fulfillment of the OPEC + deal, none of the participating countries raised the question of whether to withdraw from the deal as well. Recall the deal expires in June. And its non-renewal is fraught with the appearance on the market of an additional 1.2 million b / d. This will definitely lead to a sharp decline in oil prices. Our position on oil this week is unchanged - we look forward to the start of the correction and recommend selling the asset. Another reason for reflection was the information that more than one-third of the 80 respondents (managers at Central Banks owning assets of € 7 trillion) made it clear that they are ready to reduce the share of British assets under their personal control (the results of a Central Banking Publications survey). Given that we are talking about tens of billions of pounds that could potentially be spilled onto the market, this news is very negative for pound buyers. However, while there are no facts, it’s obviously premature to panic. As for our positions, today we are continuing to look for points for selling the dollar against the euro, pound, as well as the Australian and Canadian dollars. In addition, we will buy gold, as well as sell oil and the Russian ruble on the intraday basis.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EUR/USD breakout soon ?Hello traders, This pair has been trading in a narrow range for the recent days where bulls and bears are fighting to take control Bulls aim to break 1.132-3 resistance area in order to keep advancing towards higher levels near 1.139 where sits a 7-month down trend-line. Bears aim to break 1.127-5 support area in order to keep retreating towards lower levels near 1.12-1.118, the YTD low. Watch out for these two levels for a better view. Fundamentally, the risk is still tilted downward as the euro zone is still struggling to recover and expand and the ecb still in accommodating mode not willing to raise rates anytime soon. Trade safe.
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Not the best day for the dollar, split in the ECB, April pound The pound “reacted” to the UK data came out earlier, more than calmly. Meanwhile, investors and traders are betting whether the pound will confirm the existence of the “April Rally” pattern or not. Recall that over the last 13 years (with the exception of the last year), the pound in April strengthened against the dollar. This was perhaps the strongest seasonal trend among the currencies of group 10. The reason for the existence of such a pattern is rather prosaic: many British companies are transnational. Received dividends abroad, they transfer them home, that means, convert them into pounds. This model worked even during the global financial crisis of 2008. But last year, by the end of April, the pound fell against the dollar. The reason is clear - Brexit. At the moment, experts are puzzled if last year was an exception to the rule and the pound will rise again in April. Or Brexit broke the pattern and April is no longer an indication that the pound will grow. Let’s back to yesterday's statistics. Industrial production in the US in March decreased by 0.1% (analysts had expected an increase of 0.2%). In general, this is another alarming signal for the US economy and the dollar in particular. It's going to be more interesting watching the statistics on retail sales in the United States on Thursday. If the data comes out weak, then sales of the dollar, apparently, cannot be avoided. Moreover, Charles Evans, the President, and CEO of the FRB of Chicago said that the scenario in which the Fed does not raise rates until 2020 is quite likely. Another interesting news was the information from Reuters that some ECB politicians believe that the bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic because the weakness of economic growth in China and trade tensions persist. Although the information from Reuters is unofficial, the signal is negative for the euro both in terms of the state of the Eurozone economy and in terms of the fact that in such conditions it is not necessary to expect the ECB’s monetary policy to tighten in the foreseeable future. Let’s talk about macroeconomic statistics. The most important data from China (GDP, industrial production and retail sales) have already been published. All data came out better than expected, which should reassure the markets. In addition, the Eurozone and the UK inflation statistics will be published as well as Canada. It is also worth paying attention to data on the US trade balance. Also on Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to give a speech, that could trigger a surge of volatility in pound pairs. As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying), buying gold and oil in the commodity markets and keep on selling the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
EURNZD Un-happy endingWhats up all! Here we have FX:EURNZD which has been setting up for a very nice short over the two last weeks, we are looking at multiple TVC:EXY pairs as we expect a lot of further weakness to come in the near future due to a struggling EUROZONE. As we can see on the chart, FX:EURNZD has been flirting with the monthly resistance at 1.67-1.674 which it was unable to push above on 3 previous occasions. Currently the pair is trading within a rising wedge is a bearish chart pattern and what we are looking for in this case is for bearish continuation. The first support is our target of 1.63 followed by 1.60 and finally 1.57 Have a great week guys and REMEMBER, a trader is only as success as his risk
Short
by UnknownUnicorn691562
Data on NFP, Brexit and negotiations between US and ChinaData on NFP, Brexit and negotiations between the United States and China Bank of India lowered the rate yesterday, what provoked the sale of the Indian rupee in the foreign exchange market. So those of our readers who followed yesterday's recommendation to buy USDINR should have made good money. The US and China continue to generate positive news about progress in trade negotiations. The president of China announced significant progress. But there is no final version of the contract. Brexit news. From the progress can be noted just the next vote in the Parliament of Great Britain, against the exit without a deal. We look forward to the progress of May, which should consist in requesting a delay from the EU and the duration of this delay. In addition, we observe how the cooperation with the opposition leader Corbyn will end. New idea of May to hold a referendum on the conditions of Brexit still does not find support in the Cabinet of Ministers, but this is another option that needs to be borne in mind. Our trading tactics are unchanged - we buy a pound on descents. Yesterday’s data from the Eurozone was not pleasing unlike Wednesday. We are talking about statistics on production orders in Germany. The indicator literally fell by 8.4% (y / y), which is the strongest fall since 2009. No wonder the optimism of euro buyers has abruptly subsided. But today the EURUSD can receive an upward impulse not because of data from the Eurozone, but from the USA. Today will be published one of the most important statistics on the United States for the month - statistics on the labor market. After the failure figures on the NFP last month (+ 20K with the forecast of + 180K), the indicator is expected to be rehabilitated this month (forecast + 175K). If the data again comes out weak, it will be possible to talk about the trend, and it is extremely alarming and negative for the United States. In general, the chances of achieving the forecast indicators are quite high (if only because the forecast corresponds to the monthly average NFP numbers over the last couple of years). Nevertheless, ADP data published on Wednesday, alarming (the smallest number of jobs in 18 months). And the United States recently could not boast with data (retail sales this week are worse than forecasts and in the negative zone, GDP is revised downwards, etc.). As a result, we are committed to selling the dollar today. But ideally, of course, wait for the numbers on the NFP. Because the data is better than the forecast and may well trigger a growth in demand for the dollar. At the same time, weak data will most likely trigger dollar sales. Recall that the case is not only in the state of the US economy as such, but also in the monetary policy of the Fed. Weak data will be a clear signal not only about the unreasonableness of raising rates in the foreseeable future, but will also signal the Central Bank in favor of lowering the rate to boost economic activity.
Short
by Trade24Fx
Data from ADP is alarming and the Bank of India The Financial Times reported that the United States and China settled most of the issues that prevented the conclusion of an agreement. Myron Brilliant, executive vice president and head of International Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, said: “The deal was agreed on by 90%.” So the end of the trade wars is getting closer. Such news is extremely positively perceived by emerging markets, as well as raw materials markets. In addition, the medium was remembered by a rather extensive block of macroeconomic statistics. Business activity index in Germany, and the Eurozone were better than expected above 50. In addition, retail sales in the Eurozone were better than forecasts (+ 0.4% m / m with a forecast of +0.3 m / m). So the growth of the euro in some ways can be considered natural. Especially when you consider that it was happening against the background of rather weak data from ADP on employment in the US private sector. Instead of the expected + 175K, was only + 129K. Recall that on Friday we are waiting for official statistics on the US labor market. So on the eve of the NFP, these figures are alarming and the dollar was under pressure yesterday. But more about the data on the NFP, we will talk tomorrow. Today we are going to look for points for selling dollar. Despite the rather weak statistics from the UK, the PMI in the services sector was much worse than expected below 50 (means that activity is declining), the pound was growing yesterday. The reason is - Brexit and some progress that has been noted in it. It is about Theresa May's negotiation with the Labor Party. Laborites support for a customs union with the EU. This option of Brexit can be attributed to the most lenient, therefore the pound was growing yesterday, despite the weak data. Our position is unchanged - we buy a pound. In the oil market, the fundamental background generally contributes to short-term purchases: OPEC + restricts supply, but as for demand, news of the progress in negotiations between the United States and China definitely plays into the hands of buyers. We cannot but note that the latest data from the US Department of Energy showed a sharp increase in US oil reserves (more than 7 million barrels), and also recorded the fact of a new record of US oil production - 12.2 million barrels. So there is a risk of a change in sentiment in the oil market to bearish. But for now, the “bulls” are in control. Therefore, our intraday recommendation without changes is. We look for points for buying oil on the intraday basis. Today may be a day of respite before the statistics on the US labor market. We recommend paying attention to the Indian rupee. If the Bank of India lowers the rate, the USDINR may go up. Considering how much it has decreased over the past six months, the USDINR medium-term purchases may well bring in several hundred points of profit. We also recall the feasibility of sales of the Russian ruble. The news background for this is favorable. This refers to the information that Senator Chris Van Hollen (Democrat) and Rubio (Republican) submitted to the lower house of Congress a draft of new sanctions against Russia (this is the so-called "bill from hell", which radically restricts Russia's access to external markets for financial resources).
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
EURNZD tanks to 4-month lowBy Andria Pichidi - November 15, 2018 The Kiwi is doing extremely good the past month, and more precisely after the inflation release on October 16, above expectations at 0.9% in Q3 after the 0.4% q/q rise in Q2. Recently the employment gain on November 7, was well in excess of projections, while the drop in the jobless rate was contrary to projections for a tick higher, supported New Zealand Dollar further, especially due to the global uncertainty, in the political,/geopolitical or even trade front. Today meanwhile, the backdrop of mostly firmer stock markets in Asia, and a rise in US Equity index futures, were also a bullish lead for the relatively higher beta antipodean currency. Outperforming the Euro, at a time in which the Europe remains fraught with risks, as the brinkmanship between Italy and the EU in terms of the budget continues to play out, Brexit uncertainty remains and there are signs of flagging economic growth momentum in the Eurozone. EURNZD continue its strong way down and broke today 4-month low at 1.6567 . This breakout below the 1.6630 Support level, was a key move in the long term, as it represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement since 2017 low but also strong 6-month Support between November 2017- April 2014, before the rebound of the pair up to 1.7900 area. Therefore, as the pair moves for the 3rd consecutive week strongly to the downside, ready to complete 3 black weekly craws, simply adds to the constant deterioration in the outlook. Taking into consideration the constant declines of the price but also on momentum indicators, the pair remains strongly to the bearish outlook, without nearterm corrections signs yet. In the weekly basis, the RSI is at 35 looking to the downside, following a smooth negative slope since Octiber. MACD lines are decreasing to the downside below signal line, confirming the increase of negative bias. In the daily chart, RSI looks oversold. However, the bearish crossover of 20-day SMA to 200-day SMA, and as the MACD keeps extending to the downside, suggest that bears have the ultimate control. The break of 4-month low, opened today the doors for the 1.6235-1.6360 area , set at the latest swing lower ( November 2017) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Further gains could then target the 61.8% Fib. level at 1.5830. However, as the pair remains in a sharp bearish price action, a clear reversal to the upside could only be confirmed with a move above the confluence of 50-week SMA, 20-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level at 1.7100- 1.7170 area . This could open the doors for the continuation of the uptrend again. As mentioned, in a wider picture, the pair remains in a bearish trend, while it confirmed 5 Elliott waves movements and it currently formed a corrective wave to the downside. Daily chart: www.screencast.com Click here to access the HotForex Economic Calendar Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Short
by HotForex
1
EUR/USD on the verge of crashing ?Hello Traders, To sum up recent activities, EUR/USD rallied to 1.144 7 days in a row last week after having bottomed at 1.117 (61.8 fibo level of 2017-2018 uptrend) and stopped the rally around the 50% fibo of the same uptrend. Dovish fed underpinned the euro further more during the rally. However, the next day after the fed it erased most of the gains and continued dropping after very bad PMIs in the euro area pointing to further slowdown in the eurozone. Technically, the pair is back under the trend line shown in the chart and trading below all of its moving averages on hourly,daily and weekly chart. I am extremely bearish on this pair until fundamentals change in the euro area. In the near term bears should break 1.128 level to drag the euro down to 1.12336 (78.6% fibo of 1.117-1.144 up move) and finally test 1.117 (2019 low). On the longer term, I see EUR/USD at 1.1120 and maybe below as long as it's trading between the downward channel. Good luck.
Short
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR/USD rangeEUR/USD has been stuck in a tight range since October between 1.1215 and 1.15. The pair is underpin by trade relief between China and the US and dovish Fed, but an economic slowdown in Europe and brexit is limiting its gains. Uncertainties around the euro zone remain high, but I think that a breakthrough is around the corner. This range will stay until a major change in fundamentals, which will lead to a breakout either up or down. What do you guys think will happen in the near term ? Breakout up or down and why ? Comment your opinions. Thank you
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
EUR/USD, Daily Chart Analysis Jan 29Technical Analysis and Outlook The Euro Dollar, coming off the celebration of its 20th birthday, shows the winning side of the Monday trading session, by ramming through Mean Res 1.1380 with ease. Presently the currency pair is in the no-mans-land territory. On the upside, we see Mean Res 1.1470 as an intermediate stop, while Key Res 1.1540 might be a possible outcome. On the downside, we have established Key Sup 1.1294 as well as completed Inner Currency Dip 1.1238 including Key Sup 1.1218 to be revisited in the near-term. (For more Market Commentary, please visit the TradingSig_dot_com).
by TradingSig
EURUSD 01/27/2019 WEEKLY ANALYSISBearish trend could be defined at 14:00 on Monday when the ECB President gives his speech. On Tuesday we have the UK on brexit talks for a parliamentary vote on Brexit Plan B. Wednesday is going to be an important day because of the CPI YoY release by the US; also, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices YoY will be released in Germany which is a major influence in the Eurozone. Additionally, we have the Fed's monetary policy statement, and Fed's Interest rate decision. For Thursday, we have GDP YoY and QoQ. Finally for Friday, we have NFP and average hourly earnings YoY. Stay tuned for those events and remember to use your SL setup. Trade safe.
by kvallecillo
EURUSD - Draghi, eco indicators sending euro lowerIn spite of all the major banks forecasting higher EURUSD rate for 2019, I believe there is more risk in the eurozone than in US. Namely: - Eurozone industrial production falling - Germany close to technical recession - Brexit, EU parliamentary vote - Mario Draghi admitting eurozone growth slowing down -> rate hike far away. Technicals: -Weekly 61.8 support - Weekly 20 ema resistance Trade idea: - Wait for further slide and see what happens around support
Short
by RobertSoos