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$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Anticipating a Slightly Bearish Bias on EURUSD for 02/10/2024.EURUSD Analysis for October 2, 2024: Anticipating a Slightly Bearish Bias As we head into October 2, 2024, the EURUSD currency pair is showing potential for a slightly bearish bias based on the latest fundamental factors and current market conditions. Traders and investors are keeping a close eye on several key drivers that could influence the pair today. In this article, we'll delve into the core reasons for this bearish outlook and highlight the critical elements that may impact the EURUSD price movement. 1. Diverging Economic Data Between the Eurozone and the U.S. One of the primary factors contributing to the slightly bearish sentiment for EURUSD today is the divergence in economic performance between the Eurozone and the U.S. economy. Recent data from the Eurozone, particularly weaker-than-expected manufacturing PMI figures and concerns about stagnation in key economies like Germany, have cast doubt on the region’s growth prospects. This has added pressure on the Euro, potentially pushing it lower against the U.S. Dollar. On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP growth and robust labor market performance. This economic divergence favors the U.S. Dollar, strengthening it against the Euro. 2. Monetary Policy Divergence: ECB vs. Federal Reserve The monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the Federal Reserve is another important factor driving the bearish outlook for EURUSD. The ECB has recently adopted a more cautious stance, signaling that further rate hikes may be limited due to concerns over economic growth. This dovish tone is weighing on the Euro as market participants anticipate a slower pace of tightening. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has maintained a more hawkish approach, with hints of further rate hikes if inflationary pressures persist. This divergence in policy direction increases the appeal of the U.S. Dollar, adding to the downward pressure on EURUSD. 3. Geopolitical Risks in Europe Geopolitical tensions in Europe, including ongoing uncertainty surrounding energy security and the war in Ukraine, continue to weigh on investor sentiment. These factors are likely to keep the Euro under pressure, as risk-averse investors may flock to safe-haven assets like the U.S. Dollar. Any escalation in these tensions could exacerbate the bearish trend for EURUSD. 4. Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, EURUSD appears to be trading below key resistance levels, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The pair has struggled to break above the 1.0600 level, and the downward trendline remains intact. Short-term momentum indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), suggest bearish momentum is building, supporting a case for a further decline. Additionally, with risk sentiment favoring the U.S. Dollar amid global uncertainty, the Euro may struggle to find strong support unless positive economic data or ECB intervention changes the narrative. Conclusion: EURUSD to Maintain a Slightly Bearish Bias Today Given the combination of weaker Eurozone economic data, diverging monetary policies, geopolitical risks, and bearish technical indicators, EURUSD is likely to face a slightly bearish bias on October 2, 2024. Traders should closely monitor developments in Eurozone economic reports and any potential statements from ECB officials for further clues on the pair’s direction. Keywords for SEO: EURUSD analysis, EURUSD forecast, EURUSD today, EURUSD October 2 2024, EURUSD bearish bias, Euro to USD forecast, Forex trading EURUSD, Eurozone economic data, ECB monetary policy, EURUSD technical analysis, EURUSD price action, EURUSD market sentiment, Forex strategy EURUSD, TradingView EURUSD article. By staying informed of these key drivers, traders can better position themselves in the market and make informed decisions regarding the EURUSD pair today.
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by PERFECT_MFG
EURUSD Analysis: Am never ever wrong in the direction !!EURUSD Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias for the Week of 27/09/2024 The EURUSD pair has been at the center of market discussions, with traders carefully watching the latest developments in the global financial landscape. As of 27/09/2024, fundamental and technical factors seem to suggest a slightly bearish bias for the EURUSD this week. In this analysis, we will explore the key drivers behind this potential downward trend, helping traders better understand the currency pair's movements and formulate informed trading strategies. Key Fundamental Factors Impacting EURUSD This Week 1. Divergence in Monetary Policy The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a more cautious stance in recent policy meetings. While inflation pressures persist in the Eurozone, growth concerns have prompted the ECB to hold off on aggressive rate hikes. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reiterated its hawkish stance, signaling potential rate hikes to combat persistent inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy. This divergence in monetary policy favors a stronger U.S. dollar, exerting downward pressure on EURUSD. 2. Eurozone Economic Data Recent data from the Eurozone points to slowing economic growth, particularly in key economies like Germany and France. Manufacturing and services PMIs have disappointed, signaling a potential slowdown in economic activity. Additionally, consumer confidence across the Eurozone has taken a hit, further raising concerns about a prolonged period of sluggish growth. These factors contribute to a weaker euro, supporting the bearish EURUSD narrative. 3. U.S. Economic Resilience On the other side of the Atlantic, the U.S. economy continues to show signs of resilience. Strong labor market data and robust consumer spending have kept the U.S. economy on solid ground, even amid higher interest rates. This positive economic outlook reinforces the Fed's hawkish approach, keeping the U.S. dollar in high demand and applying bearish pressure on EURUSD. 4. Geopolitical Uncertainty Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe, continue to weigh on the euro. As the market assesses the potential impacts of these tensions on Eurozone stability and energy security, the euro faces downward risks. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, as a global safe-haven currency, is likely to benefit from any escalation in geopolitical risks, further supporting a bearish EURUSD outlook. Technical Analysis of EURUSD From a technical perspective, EURUSD has recently struggled to break key resistance levels around 1.1050. The pair has shown weakening momentum on the daily chart, with the 50-day moving average trending lower, signaling a potential continuation of the bearish trend. Support levels around 1.0950 could be tested if the bearish momentum persists. Additionally, key technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD suggest that the pair is approaching oversold territory, indicating that further downside movement may be limited. However, the overall bias remains bearish unless the pair can reclaim higher resistance levels. Conclusion: EURUSD Likely to See a Slight Bearish Bias Based on the fundamental drivers—monetary policy divergence, Eurozone economic slowdown, U.S. economic strength, and geopolitical risks—along with technical analysis, it is reasonable to expect a slightly bearish bias for EURUSD this week (27/09/2024). Traders should keep a close eye on key economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the U.S. for any surprises that could shift the market sentiment. For now, the bearish sentiment appears to have the upper hand, and those trading EURUSD should consider this in their strategies. Keep monitoring market updates for any changes in the macroeconomic landscape that could influence the pair’s trajectory. Keywords: EURUSD analysis, EURUSD forecast, EURUSD bearish bias, EURUSD 27/09/2024, Eurozone economic data, U.S. monetary policy, trading EURUSD, EURUSD technical analysis, EURUSD trend, Euro to USD forecast
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by PERFECT_MFG