Interest rate cuts to Post-Soviet record low ratesDiscussions about possible interest rate cuts to Post-Soviet record low rates have surfaced, this places the disadvantage towards the Russian ruble in the foreign exchange market. The euro to Russian ruble trading pair is now widely projected to climb to its resistance level despite the support that bears should have gotten from the commodity market. Looking at the charts, it’s evident that the pair is highly bullish considering that the 50-day moving average is significantly higher than the 200-day moving average. The weak economic prospects from the IMF for the outcome of the Russian economy are raising speculations on whether the central bank will step in to offset the alarming economic slump. Bullish investors of the pair are closely waiting for the Bank of Russia’s interest rate decision that is due later this week around Friday. This will be monumental as the bank has previously raised its short-term rates to counter inflation.
EURRUB
EUR/RUB will continue to move higher in the following daysThe pair will continue to move higher in the following days after a strong bounce back from a key support line. Brussels is considering opening the European Union’s external borders on July 01. The move is expected to propel the economy of the largest trading bloc after the slow down brought by the “Great Lockdown”. Aside from this, the EU Commission already allotted $826.0 billion for its economic aid. Meanwhile, in Russia, the coronavirus economic impact is yet to be felt. Russia’s Q1 GDP growth slowed down to 1.6%. However, a grimmer Q2 result is expected by analysts at -9.5%. Furthermore, the third and fourth quarter figures are also expected to be in negative territory at 6.3% and 5.2%, respectively. Russia will also suffer from the increased oil production cut in the coming months. The OPEC+ punished Moscow’s failure to live up to its promise to decrease oil production back in February, which resulted in oil prices trading below zero.
EUR/RUB SCENARIO. BREAKOUT EXPECTATION. SMALL LOCAL LONG The pair is trading in the triangle which is also a bullish flag. With the oil that low and the ruble being an oil currency, one might expect a bullish breakout.
There is a small local long inside the triangle, but I would actually hold it, waiting for the bullish breakout and add to the position then as the positive balance of the first one will give me a good average price.
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The euro slumps following the recent newsThe euro slumps following the recent news about a court ruling that challenges the participation of Germany, one of the biggest economies in the eurozone, in the unified stimulus program for the block. Actually, looking at the fundamentals, it appears that the odds are in favor of bearish investors as oil prices bounce back and investors continue to worry about the gloomy sentiment regarding the global recovery. The Russian ruble is projected to strengthen soon as prices of crude in the commodity market gains yet again, with the WTI crude oil futures climbing to beyond the $25 mark this Wednesday. Take note that the Russian ruble is a commodity currency and its direction is correlated with the stability of the crude market. Moreover, the Russian economy proves its robustness as it records stronger than projected figures from the previous reports. And later this week, investors also waiting for further guidance from scheduled reports from Russia.
EUR RUB its seems to start a down trend movementbecause of breaking the support line, and double top reaching , and the Higher High wasn't higher than the previous high, and also the MACD and RSI movement , my idea is a Downtrend movement.
please dont use this technical Analyze for short positions, its long, and dont forget to take a Stop loss for 1% of wrong movement.
EUR/RUB Symmetrical triangle. Trends Reversal zones. On the graph, we see a symmetrical triangle that has been forming since 2014.
A symmetrical triangle is a figure of uncertainty. The percentage of up / down in the ratio of 50/50. The price is clamped. This year will be the denouement of the global movement.
Now the price is in a downward channel , have come close to the trend line of the triangle (green line), which will act as a support.
Pay attention to the main trend and secondary trends. I graphically depicted. Particular attention to the main trend (orange trend line) , not paying attention to the local downtrend now, we are in an uptrend.
Breaking down a downtrend secondary trend (triangle resistance, red line) will mean a reversal of the local downtrend and the formation of a new uptrend. The full development of the potential of this triangle is 90%.
All the pivot zones on which the formation of one or another potential movement and target depends, I showed on the chart.
EUR/RUB failed to breakout from a major resistance lineThe pair failed to breakout from a major resistance line after its four (4) day rally. Croatia will take over the presidency of the European Council on June 30, 2020. Croatia said its strategy will be based on the main pillars: “A Europe that develops”; “A Europe that connects”; “A Europe that protects”; and “An influential Europe”. However, the “influential” part of it is at stake. Russia backs the ruling party of the Croatian Democratic Union. Croatia also considers Russia as its third-largest trading partner. It is also one of the largest importers of Russia’s liquified natural gas. Meanwhile, Serbia bought Russia’s Pantsir S1 air-defense system. Serbia is one of the five candidate countries for EU membership. In line with this, the EU cut its budget for Kaliningrad Transit Scheme. The transit allows Russian citizens in the exclave Russian territory to travel in Lithuania by road towards mainland Russia.
ridethepig | RUB Market Commentary 2020.02.19As widely expected USDRUB selling off from the 64.2x highs and a good time to collect half our chips from the table. Well done sellers, a textbook zigzag and flawless trade since the channel breakup so far. The spike was a textbook flushout with US sanctions acting as the catalyst.
For those tracking the previous diagrams the flows are wide open in the range, actively playing it makes complete sense to me in this environment:
Eventually expecting the grind towards the lows, risk sentiment around the COVID-19 will continue in the driving seat for further action here. Tracking closely 62.7x lows.
Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming!
EUR/RUB will continue to fall lower in the following daysThe pair will continue to fall lower in the following days after it failed to breakout from a downtrend channel resistance line. Geopolitics have changed following the election of US President Donald Trump. He became the face of populist leaders rising across the world. This became problematic with traditional allies, specifically with the European Union. Germany has since then increased its ties with China while France move closer with Russia. President Emmanuel Macron went on saying distancing to Russia was a major error for the EU. 2019 has been a challenging year for the EU’s foreign policy. This was after Russia increased its holding of Crimea, a Ukrainian territory. Ukraine is an official candidate of EU enlargement policy. Meanwhile, Belarus and Serbia are moving closer to Russia. These countries were in talks with the EU to become future candidates for accession on the largest trading bloc in the world.
EURRUB | A Possible Mid-Term BUY Area.Hi,
Slowly I start to add some mid-term (weeks, months) trading & investment opportunities into my TradingView account.
The first one which looks technically pretty nice is EURRUB. Pretty soon you can start building your long position on EURRUB and it starts from the round number 70. Obviously, do your own research, read fundamentals and etc.
Technical criteria are:
1. Previously worked resistance becomes support.
In 2017, this level worked 2 to 3* times as a resistance level. Actually, it has worked also as a support level - in 2016 July and 2015 October-November
2. The round number 70 should act as a support level
3. The black trendlines make this wide support area much stronger
4. Weekly EMA200 acts as a support level.
5. Minor trendline (blue) third touch matching exactly with the blue box. This minor trendline is also a lower trendline from the bullish chart pattern "Falling Wedge". It is just information because patterns are only then valid when the breakout has occurred!
6.(!) Wait for a bullish candlestick formation to be more secure.
As said, do your own research and if this matching with mine then you are ready to build your long position!
Please, take a second to support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only fee from You!
Best regards,
Vaido
EURRUB: Sell opportunity on 1W.The pair has been trading inside a very clear 1W Channel Down (RSI = 42.482, MACD = -0.781, Highs/Lows = -0.2727) since the start of 2019. Clear Lower Highs (for sell entries) and Lower Lows (for exits). Such is the most recent rejection at 73.3540. We are short targeting 71.700 which is the 1M Support (Resistance until April 2018, Support since and until this April). This is a cautious trade as despite the marginal cross of this 1M Support on April 22, it still has the capacity to initiate a new long term bullish sequence above 79.00 - 80.00.
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EUR/RUB 1H Chart: Previous forecast at workThe previous forecast worked, and the EUR/RUB currency pair has reached the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel located circa 74.70.
As apparent on the chart, the exchange rate is trading near given channel line. From a theoretical point of view, a reversal north should occur in the nearest future. An important resistance level to look out for is the Fibonacci 23.60% retracement at 76.71.
By the large, it is expected that the currency pair targets the upper trend line located in the 83.50/85.00 range.
However, technical indicators suggest that this advance might not be immediate, and the pair could re-test the lower channel line.
EUR/RUB 1H Chart: Downside potential likelyThe common European currency has declined significantly against the Russian Ruble after the pair reversed from the upper boundary of a long-term ascending channel at 81.77.
Currently, the exchange rate is re-testing the support level formed by the weekly S1 at the 75.17 mark. Given that the 55– and 100-hour SMAs are located above the price, a breakout through the support level is likely to occur within the next trading sessions.
By the large, it is expected that the currency pair continues its decrease until the lower channel line in the 74.50/75.00 range is reached.
EURRUB: Monthly Channel Up near a Higher Low. Long.EURRUB is trading on a very long term 1M Channel Up (RSI = 58.841, MACD = 1.999, Highs/Lows = 1.2013, B/BP = 6.7532), which is near pricing a Higher Low (est. 74.855). Buying here is a good long term investment with three targets, 80.645, 81.965 and 82.930.