EUR/RUB 4H Chart: Upside momentum likely The common European currency has declined significantly against the Russian Ruble after reaching its high mark at 80.00 in April. The currency pair reversed from the upper boundary of a dominant ascending channel on April 12 and has since reached the bottom border of its channel.
During the last month, the exchange rate has been bouncing between the borders of a medium-term triangle. Currently, the combination of the three SMAs is providing support for the rate near the 73.28 mark.
Given that the 55-, 100-, and 200-days simple moving averages are located below the price, a breakout through the upside of the aforementioned triangle is likely to occur during within the next trading sessions.
EURRUB
EUR/RUB 1H Chart: Pair falls below strong supportThe bearish momentum which guided the EUR/RUB exchange rate during the first part of May changed its direction later in that month. As a result, the pair formed a new ascending channel. The latest wave down from the upper channel line was guided by the 200-period (4H) SMA.
By Thursday morning, the pair had fallen below the 55-, 100– and 200-period SMAs on both the 1H and 4H charts. This suggests that some downside risks might still dominate the market this week.
The nearest support is provided by the senior channel line and the 100-day SMA at 72.50. In case this cluster is broken, the Euro is likely to target the 200-day SMA near 70.80. Conversely, a bullish reversal near 72.70 should result in a surge up to the upper channel line near 75.00.
EUR/RUB 4H Chart: Rate approaches junior channelThe Euro strengthened significantly against the Russian Ruble mid-April. The pair surged unexpectedly 12.80% within four days, thus shooting past the upper boundary of a two-year channel near 78.00. This move proved to be a false breakout, as the pair returned within this channel and began easing its strong bullish momentum.
As apparent on the chart, the Euro is gradually approaching the bottom boundary of a shorter-term channel formed in December, 2016. Given that the pair is located below the 55-, 100– and 200-period SMA, its is likely that the current bearish momentum continues until this junior channel and the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement are reached near 71.55 this month.
At the time, technical indicators on the daily time-frame would be located in the oversold territory, thus pointing to a reversal and subsequent surge in price.
EUR/RUB 1H Chart: Pair bullish in medium termFollowing the massive 13% surge which occurred early in April, the common European currency has been trading in an descending wedge against the Russian Ruble.
It seems that this pattern might soon reach its maturity, thus resulting in a breakout and a subsequent surge in this direction. Given that the pair entered the wedge from below, the most likely scenario is a breakout to the upside in the medium term. It is still likely that the pair is pushed slightly lower this week. The most probable downside target is the 73.00 area where the 55-day and 200-period (on the 4H time-frame) SMAs are located.
In case the bullish sentiment continue to prevail, the Euro should appreciate towards the 76.00 area in a week’s time.
EUR/RUB - Bullish Falling WedgeEUR/RUB - Bullish Falling Wedge
.-Volume descending
.-Euro-zone GDP Flash may impact quotation on May 15th, 2018. Forecast 2.5 , previous 2.7
.-Euro-zone Inflation may impact quotation on May 16th, 2018.Forecast 1.2 , previous 1.3
EUR/RUB 1H Chart: Pair trades sideways after massive surgeEUR/RUB shot up considerably two weeks ago when it appreciated 12.98% in the course of three trading sessions. As a result, the Euro made a false breakout from a senior channel valid since late 2016.
The rate has since edged lower, but nevertheless failed to breach the 74.96 area on several occasions. This has left the rate in a range between this level and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 76.51. The pair was supported by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs at 75.60 mid-Thursday.
Technical indicators demonstrate that there is still some upside potential in the market. Thus, the Euro might use the aforementioned support to push higher towards the senior channel or the 61.80% Fibo retracement at 79.75 and 80.65, respectively.
However, the bearish sentiment should eventually take the upper hand. The pair has to breach 74.70 to the downside in order to confirm this scenario.
EUR/RUB 1H Chart: Bulls lose momentumThe common European currency has been strengthening against the Russian Ruble for the past few weeks. This movement has been bound in a medium-term ascending triangle. The upper boundary of this pattern is a 2017/2018 high of 72.00.
It seems that the prevailing bullish sentiment has allayed, as the pair has failed to overcome the 71.50 mark during the last two weeks. As a result, a downward-sloping trend-line was drawn.
This lack of strong upside momentum suggests that bulls are unlikely to push as high as the 72.00 area. Thus, the Euro might continue respecting the aforementioned trend-line and edge lower down to the bottom triangle line located in the 69.20/40 area. This scenario could be confirmed with a breakout of the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 70.80.
EURRUB 4H Chart: Continues to surge The common European currency has been trading in a long-term ascending channel against the Russian Ruble. The pair bounced off the lower boundary of a dominant channel on April 19, 2017, and has since reached a new high.
A strong support cluster set by the weekly pivot point with the combination of the 55– and the 200-hour SMAs was providing support near 69.70 as it can be observed on the chart.
As for near future, the EUR/RUB currency exchange rate is likely to continue moving upwards for a test of the upper boundary of a junior pattern where the monthly PP is located.
EUR/RUB 4H Chart: Stopped reboundThe common European currency recently revealed a large scale ascending channel pattern against the Russian Ruble. The pattern was discovered, as the currency exchange rate did a rebound against the lower trend line of the pattern.
Moreover, the rebound has occurred in a small scale channel up pattern. However, the pattern has already encountered the resistance of a medium term channel down pattern. In general, the situation is quite complicated.
In regards to the short and medium term, one should look at the region near the 69.50 mark. If a rebound occurs, a new medium scale pattern will develop. On the other hand the pair might decline down to a massive scale support, which on Tuesday was located at the 69.00 mark.
EUR/RUB 4H Chart: Channel UpThe common European currency is surging against the Ruble in an ascending channel pattern. Although the pair has already bounced off the upper trend line of the channel, it has not begun to form a new short term descending pattern. Instead the Euro found support in the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 67.71 level against the Ruble. As a result a surge began, which is reaching for the next Fibonacci retracement level above the 0.72 mark. However, market participants should be careful, as a decline of the pair, before reaching the retracement level, is a highly possible scenario.
Long EURRUB - mid term setupLooking forward for a reversal in Euro / Ruble pair in a short time around low 60s levels.
Watching for a MA(14), as even 1 bar breakout can result a change of movement.
To be continue with UPDs after mid-March expiration.
Our initial target is at 80 lvl.