EURSEK
Swedish Krona time for a big bounceING bank keeps spreading fear about the SKrona. "Their central bank is dovish, will put it under pressure".
They announced yesterday they reached their targets of 10.60, this could be when every one takes profit.
On the higher time frames, we can see there is a resistance in this area, might be a little higher depends how you draw it, but it is approximately in that area.
So I am not aiming for the SEK to gain strength long term, but I am betting on a bounce.
Also, the EURO is no longer on an upity upitytrend, might dump soon. The SEK right now is not super negative, it is neutral (and at ING traders target and at resistance), until the 12 March (When the Swedish bonds mature). I see no reason to short the SEK until then.
If it is neutral and the euro bearish well...
The euro has been in a bear market for almost 1 year now. A dump looks imminent.
a micro analysis on eursekfollowing our last analysis on eursek where we expect a big drop, we expect eursek to behave the very same way it did the last two peaks before drop last months. to target the exact point of reversal during those endless ascending move (generally heralding an important reversal) we want to see two things :
1) the upper bollinger band on 4h time frame must draw an upper parabolic maximum
2)the price curve must in a last attempt (typical stop loss hunting) impulsively touch this point and reverse immediately
regarding how eursek is near of such a situation this should take place this monday or at the latest thursday with a flat monday to bring confusion first.
we shall do nothing before seeing that, if it crosses badly this upper bollinger band we won't be caught, if it falls even without doing so we won't believe in the reality of the fall, experience on eursek tells us to be cautious and act if and only if those two conditions are met before
eursek, all or nothingeursek has been perfectly bouncing on a support 3 times with a bounce losing intensity each time it hit the support, then it broke and started confidently a down move inside a new channel below. of course now we have through a perfect alignment a retest by below of this previous support, exactly at this point the DMI reaches an extreme value, we do not see how eursek can do anything else than dropping sharply now, this move is also supported by what we see on noksek, usdsek, eurnok and eurusd. this is very simple, if eursek surprisingly cross confidently the 1.53 1.54 area, we will see it coming very soon and then we freeze everything, the loss will be minimal, otherwise we can short eursek massively from where it stands
EUR/SEK - LONG TERM BEARISH OPPORTUNITYIt's been 5 months now since EUR/SEK has been sailing under the Daily 50 EMA.
It has now also broken the Daily 200 EMA.
What we can expect to happen next is a complete breakout of the 200 EMA and the beginning of a long term bearish move.
The confirmation that we need is for the price to fail to move and find support back above the Daily 200 or 50 EMA.
If it successfully consolidates under it, then we have a go for a push higher down.
This is my own analysis. You should never ever, even if it's the most profesionnal trader, take his words blindly. Do your own analysis and enter the trade on your own terms.
Trade safe.