The disappointing results from the EU member statesThe pair will continue to move lower in the following days towards a major support line. Investors of the single currency were whipsawed following the disappointing results from the EU member states which ended the EUR/SEK rally. A month after the coronavirus became pandemic, analysts gave an outlook to economies who suffered from the “Global Lockdown”. The outlook for Germany was a decline of 4.2% for fiscal 2020. Meanwhile, a recovery is expected in 2021 wherein the EU’s largest economy is expected to expand by 5.8%. However, six (6) months after these projections, analysts have now revised their initial forecast and downgraded Germany’s recovery. The economic contraction for 2020 is now expected to reach -5.4%. Meanwhile, recovery by 2021 was slower at 4.7%. This means that it will take another year for Germany to recover from the financial turmoil brought by COVID-19.
EURSEK
EURO_SWEDISH CRONA STRUCUTRE ANALYSIS|LONG
EUR_SEK BOKOKE THE RESISTANCE. SPIKED. RETESTED SUPPORT.
NOW BROKE OUT OF RESISTANCE.
It might move in a triangle fashion
Consolidating for an upwards move
Pick it up from the support levels outlined
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The admission of international students in SwedenThe pair will reverse back towards a strong support line after it failed to break out from an uptrend resistance line. The admission of international students in Sweden was up by 13.0% despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic. The 2018-2019 batch has contributed around $122 million in the Swedish economy. The government said the increase in the number of admitted international students for 2020-2021 could further increase this figure. This, in turn, will help the Swedish economy to recover faster from the pandemic. Meanwhile, recent figures from Germany showed continuous concerns by investors over the near-term recovery of the EU’s largest economy. Unemployment was still high and employment change for September was negative 8K. Also, retail sales YoY confirmed a downtrend pattern in the report. This suggests that Germany is yet to fully recover from the economic effect of the coronavirus pandemic.
USD/SEK and EUR/SEK Breakout Trades!USDNOK has been one of my favourite Dollar pairs I have kept tabs on ever since the DXY was showing signs of a reversal. This market structure analysis can be used for ANY MARKET since ALL MARKETS move the same three ways.
USDNOK was in a long downtrend with multiple lower highs and lower lows. Price then began to base/range/consolidate. This was a sign that the downtrend was over or was exhausting as no new lower lows were being made. Scrolling back, price did find support at an important support/flip zone of 8.60.
The trigger for an entry is the breakout. We wanted a nice clean and strong breakout. This occurred with today's daily candle. Placing my stop loss just below the daily candle, and targeting the 9.20 zone. A good risk vs reward set up.
EURSEK is very similar. A lot of market structure confluences. We have had the break out too. Notice the large sell off and buyers stepping in on the retest already.
Similar approach: A stop loss below the daily breakout, and targeting the 10.55 zone.
As a bonus, I was watching USDNOK too.
We had a nice long downtrend with multiple swings, which hit a large support/flip zone at 8.70. From here, I was watching for an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern. Unfortunately, we did not get that. BUT we did get a close above the previous lower high (9.0355) zone meaning the downtrend is officially over.
What I would like to see now is our first HIGHER LOW in this new uptrend, and this will provide us with an opportunity to enter, and we can place our stop loss below this higher low. Ideally, we would like this higher low to be formed with a retest of the breakout zone.
Swedish approach with its coronavirus managementCompared to other currencies in the region, the Swedish krona has had more chances against the euro in the previous sessions. However, the tides are somehow shifting, and the common currency is expected to redeem itself against Swedish krona. The strength of the single currency is mainly to the risk appetite reignited by the recent progress made by Washington and Beijing. Meanwhile, it’s widely known that Sweden took a rather different approach with its coronavirus management, a move that was criticized by most experts around the globe. But just recently, it was reported that Sweden’s coronavirus strategist was fired from his post after emails were leaked to the public. Reports said that the messages show that the country’s chief epidemiologist appeared to ask questions whether a higher death rate among the older people might be acceptable if it would help the country achieve herd immunity, the news sparked outrage among the people.
The euro is set to redeem itself against the Swedish kronaAfter weeks of bearish waters, the trading pair is expected to sail in bullish markets as the euro sets its eyes on the highly anticipated non-farm payroll in the United States. The results of the report will strengthen the currency, allowing it to make a comeback against the Swedish krona. The decision of the Swedish government to leave it's economy-wide open despite the pandemic is argued by many as the reason for the Swedish krona’s strength. Earlier this year, the Swedish krona was pinned down by the euro, but over the summer, it has staged a successful recovery. Now, as the pandemic continues to affect millions of lives around the world, the euro could have an upper hand in the coming days thanks to positive news ahead. The weak stance of the greenback is one of the reasons why the euro could strengthen further as investors would then prefer other major currencies.
EURSEK attempt to break support 🦐The market on the daily chart is inside a descending channel and recently created a bear flag that retrace from the previous move till the 0.618 fib level.
Currently the price tested the 4h structure and made few attempt to break it.
If the market will manage to break and close below it we can set a nice short order according with our strategy.
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Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis, please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
EUR/SEK - Retest H4 Short - But Not IdealThis is a great zone to short the retest, but the problem is the consolidation prior to the move up to retest. When you get that consolidation, you can assume it will act as support on the way back down. When price fails to build supports before retesting a level, it sets up a higher probability short opportunity. You can also assume the move up will have more power because it has had time for accumulation/forming of structure. Build up pressure and the pop is usually more powerful.
SEK likely to strenghten further against EUR.The SEK comes from weak valuations compared to other
currencies, mostly because of the negative interest rate
policy of Swedens reserve bank, the Riksbank.
The zero percent interest rate policy has been considered a failed policy and is therefore not very likely to be revisited by the Riksbank. Simultanously, weaker member nations within the European union (EU) project forces EU to lend and give money to the weaker nations in order to keep them within the EUR project.
These two dynamics should be favorable to the SEK.
Trade setup
The EUR/SEK recently had a retracement which provides a good opertunity to short EUR/SEK. I set my stop-loss just above the retracement peak at 10.326. My initial profit target is around the recent low around 10.21 and my second profit target is just above the major trend line since Marce 2013 plotted on the price chart.
EUR/SEK: I'm Bullish Long: Possible Bull Run?Right now on the EUR/SEK, I am willing to say I think a possible bull run is about the happen. It looks like resistance been going on for a while prior to the next positive wedge and looking at the different time periods, it may burst quite soon. As always, everything I say is on an opinion based basis. Please do your own due diligence and invest at your own risk. This isn't meant to be taken as actionable financial advice in any way, shape or form.
Sweden’s central bank announcementEarlier this month, Sweden’s central bank announced that it will be expanding its quantitative easing program. The news ultimately weakened the run of bearish investors in the trading sessions. However, bulls didn’t immediately take control of the pair as the euro also faced headwinds then. Luckily for them, the direction of the pair is looking pretty bullish once again thanks to the strong investor confidence in the eurozone. The euro to Swedish krona exchange rate’s prices are now widely on track to reach their resistance soon. Looking at the chart, it appears that the Swedish krona first had a grip on the pair. Although bears ultimately lost control, allowing bulls to regain their footing. If the pair climbs towards its resistance, bulls will once again force the 50-day moving average higher towards the 200-day moving average. But as of writing, the pair is in bearish territories considering that the 200-day MA is still dominant.