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EUR/USD FACING SELLING PRESSURE. $DXY MULTIPLE PIVOTS POINTSGood morning everyone. Going to try to keep this short and sweet. DXY, as of about 0830EST, broke through all hourly Camarilla resistance levels. The last being 104.560. The next targets would be at 104.795, 104.833, 104.871, and 104.987. EUR/USD has broken through first 1HR/4HR support level at 1.0782. Next two levels would be 1.0772, and 1.0762. After these levels are broken. I'll look to trade to 1.07. Going into this selloff, we were in a bearish symmetrical triangle. Though I do not rely heavily on indicators, MACD, RSI (both reg. and sto.) are aligning with this downward momentum. Stop loss around previous around 1.0830 which the hour 200-EMA is peaking under. The DXY upward pressure is also supported by the election anticipation of Donald J. Trump winning. Rising 10-year yield is also support the greenback. BOJ is not looking to hike rates this week. Listened to a few earnings calls. Everyone is beating earnings so far. VIX is up. Feels like risk-on but keep in mind that the market made a major move up prior to any reports. Folks getting greedy and anxious going into election and big data week. Let's see if JOLTS today, IJC on Thursaday, and NFP on Friday still show a strong labor market. If so, definitely can forget about a 50 bps cut. 94.8% priced in for a 25 bps cut and 5.2% with no cut. Of course, like Socrates, I'm objective and humble to accept that it's possible for none of this to happen. If we get a break back about 1.0805, a level got from my brother @ThePipAssassin I'm tracking resistance levels at 1.0825, 1.0851, 1.0877, and 1.0919. If we get anywhere near these, believe I'll be looking for 1.10 because I did identify a FVG to the downtrend in DXY. Of couse none of this is to be taken as trading or financial advice. I am simple giving you my own analysis. Trade at your own risk and I encourage everyone to do your own research and check my thoughts. Please give feedback. Going to start doing this a lot more. Follow, like, and share por favor. God is love!
Short
by Arkad2021
Euro got no backboneGuess what... I believe the EURUSD pair is ready for a sell. My decisions to enter a trade are primarily based on my intuitive assessment of the market. While I do rely on certain patterns that have proven effective for me, the actual execution of a trade is often based on a gut feeling—whether or not I like what I see at that moment. However, this particular setup has got me thinking on a more macro level. In my opinion, the USD is on its way to strengthening. With stocks and cryptocurrencies currently trading at such high valuations, I anticipate that a sell-off in these assets could increase USD volume as people take profits and hold cash. I also see potential in buying other USD pairs. I could be wrong, but the EURUSD pair fortunately offers a positive swap fee for sellers, and I’m in no rush—I have plenty of time to see how this plays out.
Short
by vitowodenik
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.09600 back down This week’s EUR/USD (EU) outlook is quite similar to my GU analysis, with the market continuing its bearish trend. I’ll be waiting for price to retrace back to the 16-hour supply zone, where I’ll look for entry opportunities on the lower time frames. My target will be around the demand zone I've marked, which is near some liquidity. Depending on the confluences, I may consider a temporary counter-trend buy, but we’ll see which point of interest (POI) price reacts to first. Confluences for EU Sells: Structure Break: Price has broken to the downside, leaving a clear supply zone. Bearish Market Structure: Overall market structure remains bearish, supporting this pro-trend idea. Bullish DXY: The dollar (DXY) is gaining strength again, increasing the likelihood of stronger bearish pressure on EU. Liquidity: Significant downside liquidity in the form of swing lows and engineered liquidity. P.S. If price breaks through my supply zone and fills the imbalance above, I’ll shift my focus to the 15-hour supply zone to evaluate further sell opportunities.
Short
by Hassan_fx
EUR/USD possible short from 1.12000My analysis for EUR/USD (EU) this week is similar to GBP/USD (GU). The pair has been very bullish and is now approaching key supply areas where I will be looking to sell short-term, just until price reaches another valid demand level. From there, I plan to buy back up, expecting it to create a new leg to the upside. If price breaks through the 20-hour supply zone, there's a 16-hour supply zone just above it that looks more promising, as it's in a premium area. With the news events this week looking favorable and few major risks ("red folders"), Monday might see price slow down and form a distribution pattern. Confluences for EU Sells: - Price has been very bullish, so a retracement is needed to sustain the upward movement. - Recent price action has been very parabolic, resulting in unhealthy market behavior. - There are imbalances and liquidity below that need to be filled. - The 20-hour supply zone presents a potential opportunity for short trades. P.S. If price melts from this zone, I'll look for an Asia high sweep followed by my usual setup. I expect price to fill the imbalance below and tap into my demand area.
Short
by Hassan_fx
EUR/CAD mini upward wave to 1.51(07/31/2024)Bears are controlling CAD, in fact, there is no reason to be bullish on CAD neither Fundamental nor technical! EUR/CAD is on a strong bullish bias. CPI data was positive and made EUR stronger. We are expecting the price to reach 1.51 where the most liquidity has been placed eventually. Our technical view has been shown in the chart. If you like it then Support us by liking, Following, and Sharing. Thanks For Reading Team Fortuna -RC (Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
Long
by fortunamarkets
EUR/USD Price Surge: Analysis and Future Outlook The EUR/USD price has surged significantly over the past 10 days. Let's explore the reasons behind this movement and the potential trends we might face in the coming days. Fundamental Analysis: The EUR/USD exchange rate has seen a significant increase over the past 10 days. This upward trend is primarily supported by a weakening U.S. dollar, driven by several economic factors. Recent inflation data shows that U.S. inflation is slowing down, with the annual inflation rate for June 2024 at 3.0%, a decrease from previous months. This has strengthened expectations of a less restrictive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, with investors anticipating rate cuts in September and possibly in November or December. On the other hand, the euro has been bolstered by the European Central Bank's (ECB) aggressive stance on raising interest rates, improving energy prospects in Europe, and relative weakness in the dollar. Technical Analysis: The EUR/USD chart indicates a potential structural change. Recently, as the price dropped to the lower part of the channel, it found support around the 1.07 level, hitting an upward trendline without making a lower low from the previous wave at 1.06. From that level, the price rose, testing the upper part of the channel and closing the daily and weekly candles at the previous high around 1.09. This is a crucial level; if it breaks with a daily candle, it would confirm the structural change, leading to a potential further rise. Conversely, a rejection at this level could result in a decline. Volume Analysis: In recent sessions, the Point of Control (POC) has consistently been at the beginning of the session, indicating significant volume gaps in the daily candles. The overall POC for the channel is at the 1.08 level, which could act as a support if the price declines. If the price continues to rise, there are many upper areas left to fill from the highs of the previous year. Sentiment Analysis: Current retail sentiment shows a 91% short position against 9% long, with short volumes at a four-year high. However, institutional positions as of the 2024-07-09 COT report indicate 393,029 long contracts against 160,108 short. Dealers, on the other hand, are 275,000 short against 9,478 long. This discrepancy suggests that institutional players are aligned with the market, discouraging short positions. Personal Analysis: In my opinion, the euro's recent rise seems exaggerated given the negative IPC, a rate cut by the ECB, a favorable PPI for the dollar, and Powell's statements indicating it is not yet time to cut rates. I expect a retracement from this level or slightly higher to fill some of the gaps left during the rise, after which the market will decide on the next direction. Powell's speech on Monday will be crucial. However, I wouldn't be surprised by a continued rise, as summer markets can be very unpredictable. If you don't have any open positions, it's wise to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before entering. I hope this analysis has been helpful. If you found it useful, please leave a boost to show your appreciation for the work done.
by jamesbond70
THE RIGHT WAY TO MAKE MONEY THIS WEEKAfter the analyzes sent at the end of last week and the beginning of this week, I received many messages asking for explanations on my sometimes conflicting analyses, so I want to explain my point of view. The lack of incisive news at the beginning of the week and the lowering of volumes that mark the beginning of summer are avoiding major movements on eurusd. My idea is that if the pair breaks and I drop the first sell zone with the line marked in blue we will go straight to the demand zone, otherwise if it bounces we will take the volume at the top and then continue with the descent. I observe the first area very carefully to evaluate a long (you can find my setup among my ideas) otherwise I will set my short vision in case it were to break it in an incisive manner. I hope I have been of help.
Short
by jamesbond70
1
EURUSD Bearish move continued**Monthly Chart** EURUSD is in a large range between 1.11500 and 1.04482 levels from August 2023 to date as per the monthly chart. However, it is still moving in a large long-term bearish directional bias and short-term bullish directional bias. **Weekly Chart** EURUSD weekly candle closed bearish after testing 50% of the previous weekly candle and moved lower in addition to filling the gap that occurred during the weekend due to the EURO election. This provided a clear indication to continue the move lower this week. The next target is around 1.0600 level (the previous weekly swing low). **Daily Chart** The gap was filled just before FOMC announcement last Wednesday, which created a favorable spot to push EURUSD lower. On 21st June there will be EURO PMI results which might generate some reaction near 1.06000 level. We will be looking to short this pair if there is a good pullback with a clear confirmation pattern on lower time frame. The first target will be 1.06000 level and then 1.0500/1.04500 levels. However, we might expect a reaction around 1.0600 level that may push the price higher.
Short
by PropSignals
Euro Slumps on Populist Surge: A Trader's Guide to Uncertainty The European political landscape has just thrown a curveball at the financial markets. A recent poll indicating a rise in populist and eurosceptic parties has sent shockwaves through the system, triggering a significant drop in the euro. This newfound uncertainty presents both risks and opportunities for traders, demanding a strategic shift in approach. The poll results paint a picture of a fractured Europe, with anxieties swirling about the future unity and stability of the European Union. Investors, understandably jittery, have reacted swiftly by pulling back on euro-denominated assets. This has resulted in a sharp decline in the euro's value against other major currencies. The coming days and weeks are likely to be marked by continued volatility in the eurozone, creating a complex environment for traders to navigate. Adaptability is paramount in this climate. With the potential for further political escalation, the euro's depreciation could accelerate. In such a scenario, shorting the euro – essentially betting on its decline – could be a viable strategy. However, this is a tactic that requires meticulous planning and precise timing. Traders must carefully weigh the risks involved against the profit potential. To make informed decisions, staying abreast of developments is crucial. Closely monitoring the political climate and key economic indicators that could influence the euro is essential. Real-time news updates, expert analysis, and access to reliable data sources are your weapons of choice in these turbulent waters. Additionally, implementing robust risk management techniques will be your safety net, protecting your investments from unforeseen market swings. The current situation presents a unique opportunity for astute traders. By evaluating existing positions, considering the potential benefits of shorting the euro, and formulating a well-defined strategy, you can transform these challenges into opportunities. While the path ahead may be unclear, adopting the right approach can empower you to thrive in this volatile market. By following these steps and leveraging our resources, you can transform uncertainty into an advantage and emerge from this market turbulence a winner.
Short
by bryandowningqln
EURUSD - in strong downtrendEURUSD - May 31, 2024 Today EURUSD stays in a downtrend, yesterday`s restoration turned into short-lived and the pair remains on course to attain 1.0800 once more withinside the early buying and selling hours of the month. weekend session. Accordingly, the outlook remains favorable for dealers while EURUSD remains beneath many vital resistance stages and regularly lowering in step with the energetic Trendine line. In addition, with the growing probability that the ECB will lessen hobby fees earlier than the Fed, the opportunity of the EUR/USD trade price persevering with to weaken wishes to be taken into consideration withinside the medium term.
Short
by TheLeader_WOLF
EUR/USDMy plan for EU this week is similar to GU, but with a focus on the nearby supply zone. I will look for a temporary sell-to-buy setup, especially interested in the 3-hour supply zone. However, I will proceed with caution and wait for a distribution to occur within the POI before considering any sells. There is trendline liquidity above the supply, so I expect the zone might get breached to sweep the Asian high. Once price reaches the 11-hour supply zone, it will present a more favorable sell opportunity. If the price drops early, I will wait for it to reach the 10-hour demand. Confluences for EU Sells are as follows: - Price has changed character to the downside. - Price has left a clean 3hr supply that is sitting ontop of some liquidity. - Price left an imbalance below that needs to get filled. - Price has been very bullish and can do with a retracement back down. P.S. If the price reacts to the 3-hour supply, I will look to sell down to fill in some of the imbalance just above the 10-hour demand. At that area, I will shift my bias to buying, following a day trader approach. Have a great trading week ahead guys!
Short
by Hassan_fx
1
EURUSD price is moving sidewaysEURUSD: The EUR nowadays did now no longer decline however as a substitute is shifting up close to the 1.0740 resistance region. This is because of the weakening of the USD. Currently, due to the fact DXY is damaged and is possibly to maintain to weaken, nowadays`s model ace can pay interest to NONFARM. It is anticipated that EURUSD will possibly retest across the 1.0683 region and rebound. Consider in short promoting across the cutting-edge fee region and shopping for again across the 1.0680 guide region
Short
by TheLeader_WOLF