Eurshort
EUR/USD Under Pressure Post-Disappointing US Data"EUR/USD struggles to find direction on Friday, hovering within a narrow range just below 1.0700. US Consumer Sentiment, falling to 60.4 in November from October's 63.8, adds pressure. Wall Street trades in the red after Thursday's decline, impacting USD demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart drops below 50 as EUR/USD slips below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating short-term downside prospects.
If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100).
On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
EUR/USD Trades at Weekly LowsThe EUR/USD exchange rate remains at a low level and is currently hovering near the weekly bottom, just above the 1.0600 mark. The US Dollar stands firm, nearing its highest level in a week reached on Thursday in response to hawkish comments from some FOMC members, and this has emerged as the key factor exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair. It endeavors to hold above the 1.0600 mark ahead of ECB's Lagarde.
The recent depreciation of the euro/dollar is expected to continThe majority of foreign exchange strategists expect the recent decline in the US dollar to continue throughout the year. The main driver for major currencies for the rest of 2023 is likely to be economic indicators. A stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and rising Treasury yields caused the dollar, which had been rising against other currencies, to fall. This comes on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will end its rate hikes, sending the dollar down nearly 2% from last month's highs.
Analysts expect the current dollar trend to continue. Almost two-thirds, or 28 out of 45 analysts, believe the dollar is likely to remain below current levels against major currencies by the end of the year. We also expect it to weaken against the euro and other G10 currencies over the next 12 months.
Analyst and Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman said: ``The dollar and US yields have been on a strong upward trend over the past two to three months... but we seem to have reached a point where yields and the US dollar peak.'' ” he said. At MUFG, he said: He added that the market is increasingly confident the Fed will complete its rate hikes, making it difficult for yields to reach new highs this year. Recent labor market data shows the U.S. economy is still outperforming other economies, but it's starting to show signs of stress from interest rate hikes over the past year and a half. Still, currency speculators remain mostly net buyers of the dollar, indicating continued support for the dollar.
Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe, explained that the dollar remained tactically long, especially compared to currencies with weaker fundamentals. The eurozone economy shrank by 0.1% last quarter, but the euro is expected to grow by about 4.0% over the next 12 months.
EUR-USD - Keylevels - DailyThe buyers finally managed to have possession of the price for 2 days in a row.
A spectacular comeback, with a Dxy that seems to have more and more problems, the FED pause, and bad data for the dollar +investors who can't wait to sell their dollar to buy everything on the market at a discount.
EURUSD: European stock futures higher; BOE decisionThursday is expected to see a stronger opening for European stock markets after Wall Street saw a big increase on mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates.
After the US Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting, investors grew more confident that the next move in US interest rates would be a decrease rather than an increase. European stocks are predicted to carry on the strong momentum on Wall Street overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%.
As was largely anticipated, the Fed held interest rates constant on Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell did not explicitly commit to the concept of another rate hike, however, in his remarks.
Back in Europe, it was the turn of the Bank of England to make its most recent monetary policy announcement at
EUR/USD Could Rise Back Towards 1.0650/1.0675"Despite negative data from the Eurozone (weaker growth and confidence, lower inflation), the calm Dollar environment warns that EUR/USD could rise again. The range of 1.0520 to 1.0700 appears to be the new short-term range, and EUR/USD might climb towards 1.0650/1.0675, possibly triggered by the US unemployment claims announcement. The data calendar is light, but attention is on the speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. We anticipate he may hint at another rate hike in December, although the current forex market already fully prices in any further ECB tightening measures.
EURUSD: European stock futures edged higherTuesday's opening of European stock markets is anticipated to be higher as investors digest more corporate earnings in advance of the publication of significant growth and inflation data in the area, overshadowing China's dismal activity statistics.
While consumer prices are predicted to rise 3.1% annually in October, down from 4.3% the previous month, the gross domestic product is only likely to grow by 0.2% annually in the third quarter, down from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter.
EUR/USD: Defensive Ahead of Eurozone CPI Data"The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on previous positive moves and trades with slight bearish momentum in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the spot price attempts to hold above the key level of 1.0600 and remains contingent on the price dynamics of the US Dollar (USD).
The tightening stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) further supports higher US Treasury yields, bolstering the USD's appeal for low-priced buying, thus acting as a resistance for the EUR/USD pair. This, coupled with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may not raise rates further, contributes to limiting the spot price. This sentiment was reaffirmed by data showing Germany's consumer inflation slowed down from 4.3% YoY to 3.0% in October, marking the lowest level since August 2021. This decline comes amid looming economic recession risks, indicating the end of the ECB's rate hike cycle. In contrast, markets are evaluating the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates once again in 2023.
Investors seem convinced that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance given the challenging US economic recovery and persisting inflation. Thus, the focus will remain on the outcomes of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting. The US central bank will announce its decision on Wednesday, and many anticipate it will maintain the status quo in its second consecutive meeting.
Meanwhile, market participants will seek signals about the Fed's future rate hike path, impacting the USD's price dynamics and creating new momentum for the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, Tuesday's release of Eurozone flash CPI data will be scrutinized for short-term opportunities ahead of the US macroeconomic data - Chicago PMI and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index."
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0550 Ahead of German GDP, CPI DataEUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0550 on Monday morning in Europe. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial inflation and GDP data from Germany. Political tensions remain a cause for concern. EUR/USD might face strong resistance around 1.0570-1.0580, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest downward trend, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 200-day SMA converge. If the pair rises above this area and stabilizes there, the next price targets could be 1.0640 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 50%).
On the downside, temporary support lies at 1.0530 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0450 (recent low point). EUR/USD rose to 1.0600 at the end of last week but lost momentum and closed almost unchanged on Friday. Early Monday, the pair moved within a tight channel around 1.0550. Short-term technical prospects indicate a lack of directional momentum. Buyers might hesitate to bet on a stable Euro recovery unless the pair breaks the 1.0570-1.0580 barrier.
Markets expect Germany's economy to contract by 0.7% annually in the third quarter. Later in the day, Germany's Destatis will release October inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise by 3.6%, down from the 4.3% increase recorded in September.
Worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone and increasing signs of slowing inflation have allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its key interest rates. Unless German CPI inflation unexpectedly surges in October, the market is unlikely to reconsider the ECB's interest rate outlook.
In an interview with Croatia's state television HRT1 over the weekend, ECB policy maker Boris Vujčić stated, "We have completed the process of raising interest rates."
In the latter half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar does not feature any high-impact releases. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 0.7%. The opening gains on Wall Street could potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar, but investors may limit large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
EURUSD 4H : Still support further decline EURUSD
New forecast
The EUR/USD pair shows an upward tendency to try to move above the support of the ascending channel, noting that the 50 moving average forms continuous negative pressure against the price,
Therefore, these factors encourage us to expect the resumption of the downward trend for today, heading towards testing the 1.0496 and 1.0462 levels mainly, taking into account that breaching 1.0585 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to attempt to return to the upward corrective path again.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.0612 and support line 1.0462.
Additionally ,Today News will affect the market .
resistance line : 1.0562 , 1.0612
support line : 1.0540 , 1.0496
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
EURUSD 4H : Waiting for ECB Interest DecisionEURUSD
New forecast
The price perfectly fulfills my last idea as we said the price will retest and already retested to our target +25 pip but because of the situation may price will be continue at the bearish attempts .
The EUR/USD pair continued to decline to test the support of the ascending channel, and begins the day with a further decline to put pressure on this support and provide signals of direction to resume the main downward trend again, on its way to achieving negative goals that begin with visiting the recently recorded bottom at 1.0496 and 1.0462.
Therefore, a bearish bias will be expected for today, supported by a move below the moving average 50, taking into account that breaching 1.0562 will stop the proposed decline and lead the price to recover again.
The expect range trading for today it will be between the resistance line 1.0562and support line 1.0496.
Additionally ,Today News will affect the market .
resistance line : 1.0562 , 1.0612
support line : 1.0540 , 1.0496
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective and If this post was useful to you , don't forget to subscribe and like ❤️
EUR/USD Nears 1.0500 Amid ECB Focus"In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD remains defensive, hovering around 1.0560, the lowest in a week, as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The currency pair continues its decline for the second consecutive day, extending its retreat from monthly highs. Support was found around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0560. Daily chart technical indicators paint a mixed picture, with momentum hovering around the midpoint but trending downwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a positive slope but also turning south.
The pair is currently testing support around 1.0560. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators indicate a bearish trend. The primary support is the upward trendline around 1.0550. As long as the price stays above that level, the Euro's recovery potential remains intact. However, breaking below could incur additional losses, initially targeting 1.0530 and then 1.0500. To shift the technical outlook to bullish, the Euro needs to rise above 1.0610.
EURUSD SHORT TRADES POTENTIALprice has reversed impulsively from the third touch of a continuation pattern and is currently printing a continuation flag. will be taking the break below the continuation.
happy trading
EUR/USD Holds Recovery Below 1.0700 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMIEUR/USD continues its recovery but remains below the 1.0700 level early on Tuesday. The pair benefits from the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakness of the US dollar. Positive changes in risk sentiment support the new upward trend. Keep an eye on EU/US PMI data.
The EUR/USD exchange rate accelerated its gains on Monday, surpassing the 1.0640 level. It continues to move further away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trending upwards. The daily chart indicates further potential for an increase, with significant resistance at the 55-day SMA around 1.0710.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken a significant downtrend line, significantly improving the outlook for the Euro and indicating further potential for price increase. Although the price is still above 1.0595, there is a possibility of more significant gains. Below that level, support appears around 1.0550, represented by the upward trend line from the October lows. Conversely, above 1.0670, the next targets are 1.0695, followed by 1.0710 and 1.0760.
Short-term technical indicators suggest further upward movement; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 70, indicating potential consolidation before another price increase. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged on Monday due to the weaker US dollar. The pair broke the downtrend line and rose to 1.0676, the highest level in a month. The outlook for the Euro remains favorable in the Asian trading session, although some consolidation might occur after a 100-pip increase.
The sharp decline of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield initially rose above 5.00% but quickly reversed, dropping sharply to 4.84%. This sharp decline pushed the US dollar index down to 105.51, the lowest level of the day since September 22. Stocks on Wall Street showed mixed reactions as the drop in yields somewhat improved market sentiment.
Volatility continues to dominate the bond market ahead of significant issuances. On Tuesday, Eurozone and US PMI data are expected to be released. There is a slight improvement in Eurozone consensus and a slight decrease in the US. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday, along with important US economic indicators such as GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
EUR/USD Steady Amid Dollar WeaknessEUR/USD maintains a higher level but remains below 1.0600 in Wednesday's Asian trading. Risk sentiment prevails, weighing on the US Dollar, especially amid positive data from China. Market focus is on Lagarde's speech and EU/US data. The EUR/USD rate has risen above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which still slopes downward. The Momentum indicator is above 100, signaling positivity for the Euro, though the overall trend remains bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, the price is well-supported and above key SMAs, with technical indicators indicating an uptrend. The current resistance level is around 1.0600, and a breach could draw attention to 1.0630. Closing above this level daily would pave the way for further gains. Conversely, dropping below 1.0540 could weaken the Euro, pushing it towards 1.0500. EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, defying positive US data and higher Treasury yields. The pair reached a high of 1.0595 before retracing.
ZEW's survey shows positive signs in the region, with the Eurozone's economic sentiment index improving to 2.3 from -8.9 in October, beating market expectations. Germany's ZEW also recovered from -11.4 to -1.1, surpassing the market's consensus of -9. Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting, expected to keep rates unchanged for the first time since June 2022.
On Tuesday, optimistic US economic data included Retail Sales (up 0.7% in September, compared to the expected 0.3%) and Industrial Production (0.3% vs. 0%). The US Dollar briefly gained from this data but quickly lost momentum. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0540 but then reversed its uptrend.
Both US and European bond yields surged, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.86% from 2.60%, and Germany's equivalent yield increased from 3.40% to 2.88%. Bond markets continued to experience significant fluctuations. If Eurozone rates follow Treasury yields, the impact might be offset, as seen on Tuesday. However, robust US data could limit EUR/USD's upward potential. On Wednesday, Housing Permits, Building Permits, and the Beige Book by the Fed are due. Stay tuned for updates on this dynamic market scenario.
SHORT EUR/USD analysis Hello traders, last week in the beginning price saw little bit of a retracement higher and we took the liquidity above a short term high than we had a big impulse down due to CPI, coming to this week we may see some retracement into the daily FVG on monday and tuesday before expending lower
EURUSD making a liquidity run Hi, Trader! After clearing the upper liquidity, there's a good chance we might move down towards the three closest liquidity pools.
🧠Short-Term EURUSD Sentiment🔥
According to the latest currency news headlines, short-term sentiment towards the Euro appears slightly downbeat against the US Dollar. While both economies face inflationary headwinds, recent data surprises have painted a relatively weaker picture for the Eurozone bloc.
German industrial orders came in lower than forecast in the latest monthly report, underscoring the challenges manufacturers continue to face from high energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, French GDP growth slowed more than anticipated in Q3, raising concerns that the second largest Eurozone economy may be slowing.
Comments from ECB officials at regional central bank conferences this week reiterated the bank's commitment to further tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. However, they maintained a cautious stance, stressing that future rate decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data. This leaves the policy path somewhat uncertain compared to the more hawkish Fed.
In contrast, US jobless claims came in above expectations last week, pointing to underlying resilience in the labor market. This boosted views that the Federal Reserve remains on track to deliver another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at its November meeting. Fed speakers struck a firm tone that inflation must be cooled through forceful rate actions.
Looking at Eurusd technicals, downside momentum has held above 1.0300 for now. However, near-term rallies continue facing resistance below 1.0500 on cautious short-term sentiment. The outlook could brighten if upcoming Eurozone data surprises higher or there are signs inflation is moderating more quickly than expected. But for now, traders appear to favor positioning for dollar strength on a short-term basis.
Technical key aspects of the short term trend and best entry/exit strategy based on the analysis provided in the TradingView charts:
- The short term trend of EURUSD across the timeframes analyzed (weekly to 4H) remains bearish. Price action has been declining within descending resistance lines and channels.
- Best entry for short trades was suggested to be after a bounce from resistance levels or pullbacks from oversold/oversold levels on indicators like the BB bands. This reduces risk of entering at highs.
- Given volatility in currency pairs, optimal stop loss placement would be above recent swing highs or structural resistance levels, around 20-30 pips above entry to limit downside risk.
- Initial profit targets were identified as lower support levels, around 50-100 pips below entry. This provides a favorable risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2.
- Additional extended profit targets aligned with longer term analysis include monthly or weekly demand zones and support levels offered by structural patterns like descending channels over 100-200 pips lower.
- Traders are advised to exit parts of their position at initial targets and move stops to breakeven on the rest, as well as trail stops closer as the trade moves in their favor, to lock in profits and limit risks of unexpected reversals.
Euro analysis in the short term EURUSD The signal secret was issued in Euro
The market maker with Hunt announced this huge liquidity to other financial institutions under the pretext of fundamental news to wait for a new ceiling in the time of 15 minutes and then fall to the floor of this time.
In my opinion, the unspent QM on the left is the main target to start this downtrend.
Not financial advice.
This 52 Hz whale can make mistakes, but the reward of this trade is high and attractive.
Euro falls to lowest level all year while dollar risesI wanted to bring to your attention the recent developments in the currency market, specifically the significant weakening of the Euro against the US Dollar. As of today, the Euro has fallen to its weakest level this year, while the Dollar continues to strengthen without any signs of easing.
The current situation raises concerns and prompts us to carefully evaluate our trading strategies. The Euro's decline may present an opportunity for those considering a short position on the currency. However, I would like to emphasize the importance of approaching this situation with caution and thorough analysis.
Considering the ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical factors, it is crucial to assess the potential risks involved in shorting the Euro. While the Dollar's gains have been consistent, it is essential to remember that market dynamics can change rapidly. Therefore, before making any trading decisions, it is advisable to conduct comprehensive research and seek expert advice.
In light of the above, I encourage you to closely monitor the Euro-Dollar exchange rate and keep a vigilant eye on any significant market developments. It is always wise to stay informed and adapt our strategies accordingly.
Should you require any further assistance or have any questions regarding this matter, please do not hesitate to comment. We are here to support you and provide guidance throughout your trading journey.
EUR/USD AnalysisEU last friday got a good reaction from the Daily FVG and created a nice leg down I'm exepcting to see a small retracement into the bearish OB and than looking to sell it targeting the first draw of liquidity at 1.05500
EURUSD has a downward trendElsewhere, the euro stood at $1.05625 EURUSD
, down 0.04% so far in Asia after climbing off this week's multi-month low of $1.0488. Investors will be looking ahead to Friday's CPI data out of the euro zone for clues into the state of the bloc's economy.
OANDA:EURUSD SELL 1.0575- 1.0590 ✔️✔️
✔️TP1: 1.0545
✔️TP2: 1.0525
❌SL: 1.0620
