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Euro falls to lowest level all year while dollar risesI wanted to bring to your attention the recent developments in the currency market, specifically the significant weakening of the Euro against the US Dollar. As of today, the Euro has fallen to its weakest level this year, while the Dollar continues to strengthen without any signs of easing. The current situation raises concerns and prompts us to carefully evaluate our trading strategies. The Euro's decline may present an opportunity for those considering a short position on the currency. However, I would like to emphasize the importance of approaching this situation with caution and thorough analysis. Considering the ongoing economic uncertainties and geopolitical factors, it is crucial to assess the potential risks involved in shorting the Euro. While the Dollar's gains have been consistent, it is essential to remember that market dynamics can change rapidly. Therefore, before making any trading decisions, it is advisable to conduct comprehensive research and seek expert advice. In light of the above, I encourage you to closely monitor the Euro-Dollar exchange rate and keep a vigilant eye on any significant market developments. It is always wise to stay informed and adapt our strategies accordingly. Should you require any further assistance or have any questions regarding this matter, please do not hesitate to comment. We are here to support you and provide guidance throughout your trading journey.
Short
by bryandowningqln
Upcoming Short : EUR/USD Strategy with Daily Confirmation I am an indices trader, but this time, I believe that EUR/USD is exhibiting significant potential for a downward movement. To confirm this, I'm looking for a daily candle to close below the orange line on the chart. Once that daily close occurs, I plan to take an aggressive short position. Additionally, if there is any retracement back to the fair value gap, which has currently will act IFVG, I will consider it as an opportunity. Several factors support my bearish outlook, including the alignment of the DXY (Dollar Index) and SMT with the EUR/USD pair on the daily timeframe. Furthermore, there seems to be the formation of a bearish breaker pattern on the daily chart. Therefore, I am eager to capitalize on this trade in the upcoming days, but I require the confirmation of a daily candle close to give me the green light. Once that confirmation occurs, I anticipate a move exceeding 200 pips in the downward direction.
Short
by Crypto_Byte9
ECB's Next Move in Inflation Fight: Managing Excess Liquidity Frankfurt, Reuters - In the ongoing fight against inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are gearing up for a significant shift in strategy. They are set to deliberate on ways to address the vast pool of excess liquidity inundating banks, with the possibility of raising reserve requirements emerging as the initial tactic. This pivotal discussion is expected to kick off at the ECB's forthcoming meeting in Athens on October 26 or during an autumn retreat for policymakers. Despite the ECB having already raised interest rates ten times to record levels, inflation still stubbornly hovers above its 2% target. With interest rates likely to remain unchanged until December, policymakers are pivoting their attention to the massive infusion of funds into the banking system through a decade of bond purchases. This surplus liquidity undermines the effectiveness of rate hikes, reduces competition for deposits, and leads to substantial interest payments and potential losses for some central banks. Sources indicate that the debate on curbing excess liquidity will focus on three key areas: revising the mandatory reserves banks maintain at the ECB, unwinding the bond-buying programs, and establishing a new framework for influencing short-term interest rates. While an ECB spokesperson declined to comment, insiders suggest that several policymakers favor increasing the reserve requirement from the current 1% of customer deposits to potentially as high as 3% or 4%. This move would serve the dual purpose of absorbing excess cash from the banking system and reducing interest payouts by the ECB and the eurozone's national central banks. However, some policymakers advocate bundling the decision on reserves with discussions regarding the ECB's asset purchase schemes and interest-rate framework, which could lengthen the decision-making process. Shrinking the 4.8 trillion euro debt pile acquired by the ECB since 2015, mainly to counter deflation risks, poses even greater challenges and market sensitivities. While phasing out the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by not replacing maturing bonds is an option, policymakers are cautious about upsetting financial markets, particularly Italian government bond investors. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently indicated that bond-buying schemes were not on the table at the latest policy meeting, emphasizing the importance of PEPP for policy transmission. While there have been suggestions to sell bonds acquired under the older Asset Purchase Programme, some argue this would result in even larger losses for the ECB. Sources suggest that a decision on bond-buying schemes might not materialize this year and, if it does, may not take effect until early 2024 or later in the spring. Furthermore, debates surrounding the policy framework—whether the ECB should continue to set an interbank rate floor or revert to a corridor system—are expected to extend into 2024, as the volume of excess reserves in banks keeps the ECB effectively locked into a floor system. A study presented at the ECB's summer symposium in Sintra suggested that, now that monetary stimulus is no longer necessary, the ECB could reduce bank liquidity to a range of 521 billion euros to 1.4 trillion euros while still meeting banks' reserve needs." This revised text provides a more engaging and concise summary of the original content, making it more attractive to readers.
by Ayame_Hana
53
EURUSD Long Term Buy Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart EURUSD DAILY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EURUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUAD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexPlanet20
EURUSD Pair Breaks Out of the Ascending Channel Weekly Analysis of #EURUSD, Monday, September 10, 2023 In the weekly chart of #EURUSD, the price has broken out of the #ascending channel and crossed below the 50-day moving average. Consequently, the market structure appears bearish or corrective. In the current week's trading, if selling pressure continues and the $1.07 rate is breached, the #EURUSD pair could initially move towards the minor support at $1.0635. If the #downward momentum persists, the next target for #EURUSD will be the support range of $1.0530 to $1.0481. So based on this analysis I suggests a bearish or corrective outlook for EURUSD.
Short
by POUSHEINI
2
EUR/USD Prediction on 25.08.2023 The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a country is one of the primary indicators of its economic health. It reflects the total market value of all goods and services produced over a specific time period within a country's borders. When the GDP of a dominant economy within a currency zone, like Germany in the Eurozone, shows a bearish trend, it can have profound effects on the currency, in this case, the Euro (EUR). Dominance of the German Economy in the Eurozone: Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, contributing a significant portion of the zone's aggregate GDP. As a result, its economic performance often serves as a barometer for the entire Eurozone's health. A bearish GDP trend in Germany can, therefore, suggest a potential slowdown across the entire Euro area. Investor Confidence: A declining GDP often points to broader economic issues. This can include declining industrial production, reduced consumer spending, or challenges in the services sector, among other factors. As a consequence, investors might perceive the Eurozone as a riskier investment, leading to capital outflows and a reduced demand for the Euro, thus driving its value down. Monetary Policy Implications: The European Central Bank (ECB) closely monitors economic indicators like the GDP to shape its monetary policy. A bearish GDP trend in Germany might prompt the ECB to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to stimulate growth, such as cutting interest rates or implementing quantitative easing. These measures often lead to a depreciation of the currency as lower interest rates tend to reduce foreign capital inflows seeking higher returns. Trade Balance Implications: Germany is a significant exporter, and a bearish GDP might reflect challenges in its export sector, potentially due to global economic conditions or decreased competitiveness. If German exports decline, it could result in a deteriorating trade balance for the Eurozone, further placing downward pressure on the Euro. Psychological Factor: The financial markets are influenced not only by tangible factors but also by traders' and investors' perceptions. A slowdown in Germany, given its economic stature, can create a bearish sentiment around the Euro, leading market participants to short the currency or look for safer investment alternatives. Potential Ripple Effects: While Germany is the primary focus here, a downturn in its economy could impact its trading partners within the Eurozone. As trade and investment links are dense among Eurozone countries, a slowdown in one major economy can have spill-over effects, creating a feedback loop that amplifies the bearish sentiment.
Short
by mazayafx
EURUSD Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaThe EURUSD has exhibited a bearish trend over an extended period. As we approach high-impact calendar events today that hold the potential to sway the euro's performance, an uptick in market volatility is anticipated. I am actively identifying potential entry levels, and my attention is fixed on a critical resistance threshold. If today's events result in negative data, there's a likelihood of witnessing an upward liquidity sweep towards the resistance level outlined in the video, offering a potential selling opportunity. It's important to note that all details are explained in the video; however, this content should not be misconstrued as financial advice.
Short
by fxtraderanthony
1
EUR/USD re-targets 1.1000 post US-CPIShort(Mid Term : BULLISH EUR/USD looks to regain some fresh buying interest following CPI-led weakness in the US dollar on Wednesday. The movement of the euro's value is expected to closely mirror the behaviour of the US Dollar and will likely be impacted by any differences in approach between the Fed and the ECB with regard to their plans for adjusting interest rates. Moving forward, hawkish ECB-speak continues to favour further rate hikes, although this view appears in contrast to some loss of momentum in economic fundamentals in the region. Eminent issues on the back boiler: Continuation (or not) of the ECB hiking cycle. Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the growth prospects and inflation outlook in the region. Risks of inflation becoming entrenched. EUR/USD levels to watch So far, the pair is gaining 0.28% at 1.0989 and faces the next up-barriers at 1.1095 (2023 high April 26) and 1.1100 (round level) en route to 1.1184 (weekly high March 21 2022). On the other hand, the next contention level aligns at 1.0941 (monthly low May 2), followed by 1.0909 (weekly low April 17) and finally 1.0831 (monthly low April 10). The EUR/USD pair remained under selling pressure throughout the first half of the day, meeting sellers ahead of the 1.1000 figure and hovering at the lower end of its weekly range at 1.0950 ahead of first-tier United States (US) data. The US Dollar retained its latest strength amid a risk-averse environment and, despite Treasury yields, lost momentum. Eurozone (EU) news passed unnoticed. Germany published the final version of its April inflation figures, confirming the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose at an annual pace of 7.2%. The core reading also matched the preliminary estimate at 7.6%. EUR/USD short-term technical outlook The EUR/USD pair daily chart shows that further gains remain unclear. The pair remains below a directionless 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer ones maintain their mildly bullish slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, lack directional strength within neutral levels. In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the technical picture is quite similar. The pair recovered from around a mildly bullish 200 SMA, but a bearish 20 SMA crossing below a directionless 100 SMA provide near-term resistance around 1.1000. Finally, technical indicators turned north but remain within positive levels. If the pair is able to regain and sustain gains above 1.1000, bulls may retake control of the pair. Support levels: 1.0940 1.0890 1.0830 Resistance levels: 1.1000 1.1050 1.1100
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
11
EURUSD - Will The USD Become The Strongest Currency?Analysis: When we take a look at the technicals for EURUSD, price looks as if it's in an upwards trend as we're forming a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating to us that we want to long however this isn't what we see and we actually see early signs of a reversal happening. To begin with we have this downwards trendline. Although it has only been respected twice we expect that it will actually hold again for a third time and we will see price reject off of this area. Another confluence on why we think that this area will hold as resistance is because its been tested multiple times. If we look left we can see that price has come to this area before and we then saw a rejection. This has happened twice now and due to other confluence factors we see this happening again. Our final technical confluence factor that we have is this ascending triangle that we broke out of in may indicating to us that there could be some bearishness on the horizon. We're now retesting this ascending triangle and we expect that it will hold as resistance and that price will reverse back to the downside. A big reason for this setup though is the fundamentals so lets take a look at these too. Fundamentally the EUR is just about the 1st strongest major currency compared to the USD which is the 2nd strongest major currency but these two currencies are very close in strength. Whilst this looks like it goes against our idea if we look a little further we get more important data. As of the most recent filling we saw a decrease in long positions by institutions on the USD but we saw an even bigger decrease in short positions by institutions on the USD indicating that there could be some more bullishness coming to the USD whereas for the EUR we saw a decrease in short positions by institutions but an even bigger decrease in long positions by institutions which is bearish for the EUR. This is why we are actually fundamentally bullish on the USD over the EUR. so along with the technicals that we see we're bearish on the EURUSD. Just a note however, this isn't our favourite setup but it fits our plan. We know our strategy is profitable which is why we're taking this setup. We won't know the result until the end but what we know now is that this setup has an edge in the markets so its worth taking and we're confident in it. With that being said lets see if we get that move that we expect. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
20
EURAUD - EUR Weakness On Its Way?Analysis: Looking at the chart and price action we can clearly see that price is in a downwards trend. We're forming lower lows and lower highs which confirms that we're in a downwards trend. Bearing this being in mind we're only looking for short setups. If we look at the previous lower low we have a strong area to enter from. Whys this? Well this area has held multiple times in the past as both support and resistance so we expect that it will do it again. Also in a downwards trend we'd expect price to pullback to the previous lower low to put in a new lower high before continuing to the downside and this is what we're seeing now. For more added confluence at this area we also have the 61.8% fib retracement level which is often classed as the strongest fib level. We expect that sellers will be sat at this level wanting to push price down further, so this helps out our bearish thesis. We also have a downwards trendline very close by. This trendline has been respected in the past so we expect that it will be respected again and we will see sellers enter into the market pushing price down further. Fundamentally the EUR is the strongest major currency compared to the AUD which is the 6th strongest major currency so this really doesn't go in our favour but in recent news events we've actually see some bullish news come out for the AUD with regards to unemployment claims and other key events whereas for the EUR it's been slightly mixed. This to us looks like early signs that we could be seeing some bullishness for the AUD and some bearishness for the EUR soon, which is why we want to get on this move before it happens so we can catch a great trade. With all of the confluences that we have both technically and fundamentally we have a bias to the downside which is why we're bearish EURAUD. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
32