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A Volatile Bearish Trend: AI-Assisted 4-Hour Analysis of EUR-USDDear Esteemed TradingView Members, I n the world of financial trading, precision and insight are invaluable assets. In today's dynamic market environment, it's imperative to embrace the right tools that provide clarity amid the ever-shifting tides of economic forces. I n this piece, I delve into the intricate currency trading, focusing on the EUR-USD market. To capture the essence of this dynamic market, I've chosen to examine it through the lens of 4-hour candles. The rationale behind this choice is rooted in the recent uptick in EUR volatility. While lower timeframes may drown you in noise, the 4-hour candles offer an equilibrium, making it easier to discern patterns and identify emerging trends. W hy 4-hour candles, you ask? Well, because they're versatile. Whether you're a swing trader, day trader, or even planning longer-term positions, these candles are a reliable tool in your arsenal. They filter out the commotion and provide a steady view of the market's ebbs and flows. I looked at recent developments, and I saw a bearish trend that persisted until November 1, 2023. However, it's essential to note that the trend didn't seamlessly transition to a bullish one; instead, it appears to be exploring potential support levels. What's intriguing is the gradual deceleration of the decline, as evidenced by the volume indicator. V olume plays a pivotal role in assessing market health, and traders frequently employ indicators like On-Balance-Volume (OBV) to confirm their analyses. Our chart showcases a possible demand zone, spanning from $1.044 to $1.052, accentuated by a prominent blue rectangle. This range is more than just a potential support zone; it's an indicator of market sentiment and a battleground of supply and demand. O BV, the blue indicator at the bottom of the chart, corroborates the significance of this zone. It started a noticeable ascent on October 3, 2023, coinciding with the EUR price's descent into this area. This rise indicates a considerable demand that might be a precursor to multiple bullish surges, emerging from this very platform. Yet, each of these attempted upswings met the resolute barrier of the ascending resistance line, denoted by the striking purple trendline, nudging the price back toward the aforementioned demand zone. T his oscillation serves to intensify the latent buying potential within the zone. However, it also reveals that the demand isn't robust enough yet to trigger a full-scale shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. The latest encounter with the resistance line on November 6, 2023, adds another layer to the analysis. A t this juncture, our Random Forests machine-learning technique enters the fray. It paints a picture of a potential retreat in price towards the historical support zone. Remarkably, OBV barely budged in response to this rejection, suggesting that there's a substantial interest sandwiched between the resistance and support levels. This interest might lead to the execution of limit orders, propelling the EUR price downwards to the demand zone. T o further enrich our analysis, the Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) algorithm highlights a crucial point. It indicates that the EUR price has begun to veer away from Exponential Moving Average (EMA) graphs in a manner that typically hints at weakness in the local bullish trend. This divergence could signify a probable return to the overarching bearish trend or, at the very least, a period of consolidation—a characteristic often observed on-demand platforms. I n the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, precision is the compass and insight of the North Star. As the EUR-USD market continues to unveil its secrets, your mission is to decode them with sophistication, warmth, and genuine expertise. S tay tuned for more insights, and remember, in the world of trading, adaptability is the key to success. It is not a financial advice. You are responsible for your funds. Take care of retaining volume more than fast gains. Do your research. The idea proposes only possibilities, and the market might act in a different way. Historic results don't guarantee future results. AI isn't omniscient. Warm Regards, Ely
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by Elysian_Mind
EUR/USD Extends Upside Momentum Above 1.0700The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0700 in the early Asian trading session on Tuesday. Lower US Treasury bond yields are exerting pressure on the US Dollar (USD), providing some support for this currency pair. However, concerns about economic downturn in the Eurozone may limit the Euro's upward trajectory. The EUR/USD exchange rate has increased for the second consecutive day and is holding above the 20-day and 55-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a modest bullish trend. However, closing below 1.0615 would negate positive prospects. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing the short-term downtrend line around 1,0705, while staying above the support zone at 1,0655. Technical indicators are not providing clear signals. A breakout above 1,0710 would open up opportunities for further strength, with subsequent targets at 1,0735 and then the previous high near 1,0760. On the other hand, an acceleration of the downside may occur if the pair breaks below 1,0650, initially targeting 1,0635 and then 1,0610.
by Larissa-Trader
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EUR/USD Maintains Modest Gains Near 1.0700"EUR/USD is holding slight gains near the 1.0700 mark in European trading on Monday. The US dollar started the new week on a defensive note, despite higher US bond yields. Traders are awaiting GDP data for the Eurozone and US inflation figures later in the week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has dipped below 50, while EUR/USD falls below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
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EUR/USD Maintains Position Below 1.0700The EUR/USD pair kicked off the new week on a positive note during the early Monday trading hours in Asia. The recovery of this currency pair is supported by the prevailing weakness of the US Dollar (USD). Having bounced from last week's low of 1.0656, the pair remains constrained below the resistance level of 1.0700. Currently, the main currency pair is trading around 1.0690, marking a 0.04% increase for the day. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 60.4 in November from 63.8 in October. The 12-month inflation expectations for the US increased to 4.4% from 4.2%, while the 5-year expectations rose to 3.2% from 3.0%. A crucial upcoming event is the release of the CPI report for October. A better-than-expected outcome from this report could heighten the probability of the Fed raising interest rates again in December. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that if further policy tightening is deemed appropriate, the central bank would not hesitate to do so. On the other hand, the European Commission will release its economic growth forecast on Monday, with downward adjustments expected for the 2024 growth outlook. Preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone for Q3 is also due, with a quarterly estimate of a 0.1% decrease and an anticipated 0.1% increase on a yearly basis. Additionally, some ECB figures, including Lagarde, De Guindos, Lane, and Villeroy, may reiterate that any discussions about interest rate cuts are premature. The International Monetary Fund stated last week that rapidly rising wages in the euro area could lead to prolonged inflation, suggesting that the European Central Bank should maintain interest rates at or around record highs in the coming year to alleviate pressure on prices. However, the market anticipates a rate cut, possibly as early as April, with a total of 90 basis points of cuts priced in by the end of next year. What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
by Larissa-Trader
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EUR/USD Under Pressure Post-Disappointing US Data"EUR/USD struggles to find direction on Friday, hovering within a narrow range just below 1.0700. US Consumer Sentiment, falling to 60.4 in November from October's 63.8, adds pressure. Wall Street trades in the red after Thursday's decline, impacting USD demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart drops below 50 as EUR/USD slips below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating short-term downside prospects. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
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The recent depreciation of the euro/dollar is expected to continThe majority of foreign exchange strategists expect the recent decline in the US dollar to continue throughout the year. The main driver for major currencies for the rest of 2023 is likely to be economic indicators. A stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and rising Treasury yields caused the dollar, which had been rising against other currencies, to fall. This comes on expectations that the US Federal Reserve will end its rate hikes, sending the dollar down nearly 2% from last month's highs. Analysts expect the current dollar trend to continue. Almost two-thirds, or 28 out of 45 analysts, believe the dollar is likely to remain below current levels against major currencies by the end of the year. We also expect it to weaken against the euro and other G10 currencies over the next 12 months. Analyst and Senior Currency Analyst Lee Hardman said: ``The dollar and US yields have been on a strong upward trend over the past two to three months... but we seem to have reached a point where yields and the US dollar peak.'' ” he said. At MUFG, he said: He added that the market is increasingly confident the Fed will complete its rate hikes, making it difficult for yields to reach new highs this year. Recent labor market data shows the U.S. economy is still outperforming other economies, but it's starting to show signs of stress from interest rate hikes over the past year and a half. Still, currency speculators remain mostly net buyers of the dollar, indicating continued support for the dollar. Simon Harvey, head of currency analysis at Monex Europe, explained that the dollar remained tactically long, especially compared to currencies with weaker fundamentals. The eurozone economy shrank by 0.1% last quarter, but the euro is expected to grow by about 4.0% over the next 12 months.
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by AstronautPioneer
EURUSD: European stock futures higher; BOE decisionThursday is expected to see a stronger opening for European stock markets after Wall Street saw a big increase on mounting expectations that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates. After the US Federal Reserve's most recent policy-setting meeting, investors grew more confident that the next move in US interest rates would be a decrease rather than an increase. European stocks are predicted to carry on the strong momentum on Wall Street overnight, with the Nasdaq Composite up 1.6%. As was largely anticipated, the Fed held interest rates constant on Wednesday. Chairman Jerome Powell did not explicitly commit to the concept of another rate hike, however, in his remarks. Back in Europe, it was the turn of the Bank of England to make its most recent monetary policy announcement at
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by TrategySherpa
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EUR/USD Could Rise Back Towards 1.0650/1.0675"Despite negative data from the Eurozone (weaker growth and confidence, lower inflation), the calm Dollar environment warns that EUR/USD could rise again. The range of 1.0520 to 1.0700 appears to be the new short-term range, and EUR/USD might climb towards 1.0650/1.0675, possibly triggered by the US unemployment claims announcement. The data calendar is light, but attention is on the speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. We anticipate he may hint at another rate hike in December, although the current forex market already fully prices in any further ECB tightening measures.
by Gwen_Humuna
EURUSD: European stock futures edged higherTuesday's opening of European stock markets is anticipated to be higher as investors digest more corporate earnings in advance of the publication of significant growth and inflation data in the area, overshadowing China's dismal activity statistics. While consumer prices are predicted to rise 3.1% annually in October, down from 4.3% the previous month, the gross domestic product is only likely to grow by 0.2% annually in the third quarter, down from 0.5% growth in the previous quarter.
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by TrategySherpa
EUR/USD: Defensive Ahead of Eurozone CPI Data"The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on previous positive moves and trades with slight bearish momentum in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the spot price attempts to hold above the key level of 1.0600 and remains contingent on the price dynamics of the US Dollar (USD). The tightening stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) further supports higher US Treasury yields, bolstering the USD's appeal for low-priced buying, thus acting as a resistance for the EUR/USD pair. This, coupled with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may not raise rates further, contributes to limiting the spot price. This sentiment was reaffirmed by data showing Germany's consumer inflation slowed down from 4.3% YoY to 3.0% in October, marking the lowest level since August 2021. This decline comes amid looming economic recession risks, indicating the end of the ECB's rate hike cycle. In contrast, markets are evaluating the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates once again in 2023. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance given the challenging US economic recovery and persisting inflation. Thus, the focus will remain on the outcomes of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting. The US central bank will announce its decision on Wednesday, and many anticipate it will maintain the status quo in its second consecutive meeting. Meanwhile, market participants will seek signals about the Fed's future rate hike path, impacting the USD's price dynamics and creating new momentum for the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, Tuesday's release of Eurozone flash CPI data will be scrutinized for short-term opportunities ahead of the US macroeconomic data - Chicago PMI and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index."
by Gwen_Humuna
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EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0550 Ahead of German GDP, CPI DataEUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0550 on Monday morning in Europe. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial inflation and GDP data from Germany. Political tensions remain a cause for concern. EUR/USD might face strong resistance around 1.0570-1.0580, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest downward trend, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 200-day SMA converge. If the pair rises above this area and stabilizes there, the next price targets could be 1.0640 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 50%). On the downside, temporary support lies at 1.0530 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0450 (recent low point). EUR/USD rose to 1.0600 at the end of last week but lost momentum and closed almost unchanged on Friday. Early Monday, the pair moved within a tight channel around 1.0550. Short-term technical prospects indicate a lack of directional momentum. Buyers might hesitate to bet on a stable Euro recovery unless the pair breaks the 1.0570-1.0580 barrier. Markets expect Germany's economy to contract by 0.7% annually in the third quarter. Later in the day, Germany's Destatis will release October inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise by 3.6%, down from the 4.3% increase recorded in September. Worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone and increasing signs of slowing inflation have allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its key interest rates. Unless German CPI inflation unexpectedly surges in October, the market is unlikely to reconsider the ECB's interest rate outlook. In an interview with Croatia's state television HRT1 over the weekend, ECB policy maker Boris Vujčić stated, "We have completed the process of raising interest rates." In the latter half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar does not feature any high-impact releases. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 0.7%. The opening gains on Wall Street could potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar, but investors may limit large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Nears 1.0500 Amid ECB Focus"In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD remains defensive, hovering around 1.0560, the lowest in a week, as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The currency pair continues its decline for the second consecutive day, extending its retreat from monthly highs. Support was found around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0560. Daily chart technical indicators paint a mixed picture, with momentum hovering around the midpoint but trending downwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a positive slope but also turning south. The pair is currently testing support around 1.0560. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators indicate a bearish trend. The primary support is the upward trendline around 1.0550. As long as the price stays above that level, the Euro's recovery potential remains intact. However, breaking below could incur additional losses, initially targeting 1.0530 and then 1.0500. To shift the technical outlook to bullish, the Euro needs to rise above 1.0610.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Holds Recovery Below 1.0700 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMIEUR/USD continues its recovery but remains below the 1.0700 level early on Tuesday. The pair benefits from the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakness of the US dollar. Positive changes in risk sentiment support the new upward trend. Keep an eye on EU/US PMI data. The EUR/USD exchange rate accelerated its gains on Monday, surpassing the 1.0640 level. It continues to move further away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trending upwards. The daily chart indicates further potential for an increase, with significant resistance at the 55-day SMA around 1.0710. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken a significant downtrend line, significantly improving the outlook for the Euro and indicating further potential for price increase. Although the price is still above 1.0595, there is a possibility of more significant gains. Below that level, support appears around 1.0550, represented by the upward trend line from the October lows. Conversely, above 1.0670, the next targets are 1.0695, followed by 1.0710 and 1.0760. Short-term technical indicators suggest further upward movement; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 70, indicating potential consolidation before another price increase. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged on Monday due to the weaker US dollar. The pair broke the downtrend line and rose to 1.0676, the highest level in a month. The outlook for the Euro remains favorable in the Asian trading session, although some consolidation might occur after a 100-pip increase. The sharp decline of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield initially rose above 5.00% but quickly reversed, dropping sharply to 4.84%. This sharp decline pushed the US dollar index down to 105.51, the lowest level of the day since September 22. Stocks on Wall Street showed mixed reactions as the drop in yields somewhat improved market sentiment. Volatility continues to dominate the bond market ahead of significant issuances. On Tuesday, Eurozone and US PMI data are expected to be released. There is a slight improvement in Eurozone consensus and a slight decrease in the US. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday, along with important US economic indicators such as GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Steady Amid Dollar WeaknessEUR/USD maintains a higher level but remains below 1.0600 in Wednesday's Asian trading. Risk sentiment prevails, weighing on the US Dollar, especially amid positive data from China. Market focus is on Lagarde's speech and EU/US data. The EUR/USD rate has risen above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which still slopes downward. The Momentum indicator is above 100, signaling positivity for the Euro, though the overall trend remains bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the price is well-supported and above key SMAs, with technical indicators indicating an uptrend. The current resistance level is around 1.0600, and a breach could draw attention to 1.0630. Closing above this level daily would pave the way for further gains. Conversely, dropping below 1.0540 could weaken the Euro, pushing it towards 1.0500. EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, defying positive US data and higher Treasury yields. The pair reached a high of 1.0595 before retracing. ZEW's survey shows positive signs in the region, with the Eurozone's economic sentiment index improving to 2.3 from -8.9 in October, beating market expectations. Germany's ZEW also recovered from -11.4 to -1.1, surpassing the market's consensus of -9. Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting, expected to keep rates unchanged for the first time since June 2022. On Tuesday, optimistic US economic data included Retail Sales (up 0.7% in September, compared to the expected 0.3%) and Industrial Production (0.3% vs. 0%). The US Dollar briefly gained from this data but quickly lost momentum. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0540 but then reversed its uptrend. Both US and European bond yields surged, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.86% from 2.60%, and Germany's equivalent yield increased from 3.40% to 2.88%. Bond markets continued to experience significant fluctuations. If Eurozone rates follow Treasury yields, the impact might be offset, as seen on Tuesday. However, robust US data could limit EUR/USD's upward potential. On Wednesday, Housing Permits, Building Permits, and the Beige Book by the Fed are due. Stay tuned for updates on this dynamic market scenario.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
🧠Short-Term EURUSD Sentiment🔥 According to the latest currency news headlines, short-term sentiment towards the Euro appears slightly downbeat against the US Dollar. While both economies face inflationary headwinds, recent data surprises have painted a relatively weaker picture for the Eurozone bloc. German industrial orders came in lower than forecast in the latest monthly report, underscoring the challenges manufacturers continue to face from high energy costs and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, French GDP growth slowed more than anticipated in Q3, raising concerns that the second largest Eurozone economy may be slowing. Comments from ECB officials at regional central bank conferences this week reiterated the bank's commitment to further tightening of monetary policy in the coming months. However, they maintained a cautious stance, stressing that future rate decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data. This leaves the policy path somewhat uncertain compared to the more hawkish Fed. In contrast, US jobless claims came in above expectations last week, pointing to underlying resilience in the labor market. This boosted views that the Federal Reserve remains on track to deliver another supersized 75 basis point rate hike at its November meeting. Fed speakers struck a firm tone that inflation must be cooled through forceful rate actions. Looking at Eurusd technicals, downside momentum has held above 1.0300 for now. However, near-term rallies continue facing resistance below 1.0500 on cautious short-term sentiment. The outlook could brighten if upcoming Eurozone data surprises higher or there are signs inflation is moderating more quickly than expected. But for now, traders appear to favor positioning for dollar strength on a short-term basis. Technical key aspects of the short term trend and best entry/exit strategy based on the analysis provided in the TradingView charts: - The short term trend of EURUSD across the timeframes analyzed (weekly to 4H) remains bearish. Price action has been declining within descending resistance lines and channels. - Best entry for short trades was suggested to be after a bounce from resistance levels or pullbacks from oversold/oversold levels on indicators like the BB bands. This reduces risk of entering at highs. - Given volatility in currency pairs, optimal stop loss placement would be above recent swing highs or structural resistance levels, around 20-30 pips above entry to limit downside risk. - Initial profit targets were identified as lower support levels, around 50-100 pips below entry. This provides a favorable risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. - Additional extended profit targets aligned with longer term analysis include monthly or weekly demand zones and support levels offered by structural patterns like descending channels over 100-200 pips lower. - Traders are advised to exit parts of their position at initial targets and move stops to breakeven on the rest, as well as trail stops closer as the trade moves in their favor, to lock in profits and limit risks of unexpected reversals.
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by artotrading