Long EURUSD, target 1.10-1.113
EUR/USD is currently near the resistance level. Today, we need to pay attention to the support near 1.088 and the resistance near 1.094.
Judging from the current situation, today's strategy will be based on low long positions. I will tell you when to trade. Stay tuned.
I will release more strategies later, including OIL, gold, GBPUSD, BTC, etc. If you are trading, you can follow me, if you have any questions, you can tell me, and I will help you answer them
EUR TRY
300+ percent return with EURTRY vs simple EURUSDDo you find the spread cost of trading the euro against the Turkish lira worthwhile? With this kind of crazy return of over 300% in the last five years, you'd probably say no. So how did you miss this type of trade? And we all focus on the simple euro against the U.S. dollar trade EUR/USD on Oanda.
20 Reasons BUY EURUSD 🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️
1:✨Eagle eye: bullish trend also filled corrective wave
2:📆Monthly: after a valid low price goes to a corrective back
formaatting a builduo here in favor of bulls
3:📅Weekly: choch done also make support with proper lower high low
4:🕛Daily: bullish structure here stating an impulsive move
😇7 Dimension analysis
🟢 analysis time frame: daily
5: 1 Price Structure: bullish
6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: record session count and correction done
7: 3 Volume: bullish volume is in power
8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: protected 40 areas also bullish formation here long consolidation
9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: walking on the band and middle band support
10: 6 Strength ADX: sharp bear dmi up, but bulls are still in power
11: 7 Sentiment ROC: eur stronge
✔️ Entry Time Frame: h1
12: Entry TF Structure: right now is bearish, but based on sentiments and bigger tf, we are seeking buy entries only
13: entry move: impulsive
14: Support resistance base: h4 d1
15: FIB: trigger event done
☑️ final comments: test entry. If it confirms, add 2nd entry at the upper side breakout
16: 💡decision: buy
17: 🚀Entry: 1.07609
18: ✋Stop losel:1.0773
19: 🎯Take profit:1.089
20: 😊Risk to reward Ratio: 1:5
🕛 Excepted Duration: 2 days
EURUSD ROAD TO 1.16 AND BEYOND!The EURUSD IS LOOKING PROMISING!
Many positive economic data and a recovery in its economy has been surrounding the EURUSD lately. As US has attempted to drag the EURUSD down with its rapid increase in interest rates the EURUSD has had a strong recovery as well.
On september the EURUSD was at a price of $0.99 for the first time since 2002! IT WAS A NO BRAINER BUY IF YOU SAW IT AT THOSE PRICES!!!
Here are other factors that are influencing on its rise:
Strong economic data: The Eurozone has recently seen positive economic data. This suggests that the Eurozone economy is recovering from the previous economic attack, which may support the value of the euro.
Interest rate differentials: The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates low, while the US Federal Reserve has been alarmingly increasing interest rates. This could make the euro relatively more attractive compared to the US dollar, as investors seek higher returns on their investments.
Weakness in the US dollar: The US dollar has weakened against other major currencies recently, in part due to concerns about rising inflation and the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more. This has made the euro relatively more valuable in comparison.
Have a nice day!
EURUSD: Buy at low levels
On the 30-minute chart, we can see that the recent lows have been steadily rising, indicating an upward bias in the trend. On the 1-hour chart, the current market is near support (which was previously a resistance level, but was broken through yesterday and has now become a support level). As long as there is no significant break below this level, buying at these low levels is possible.
The target reference point is the previous high, with a potential break above targeting around 1.08. Support below is at 1.065-1.063.
Turkish Lira - Doesn't look good...Already vulnerable, Turkey’s economy now faces massive earthquake recovery costs:
After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. Just six months earlier, in June 2022, the economy was on the brink: Turkey was facing a potential balance of payments crisis, meaning it would be unable to redeem foreign currency debts and pay the bills for imported goods. The credit default swap premium, paid annually to guarantee redemption of five-year dollar-denominated eurobonds, was hovering over 9% — the highest level since the 2001 banking crisis — and sovereign credit ratings for external loans were the lowest they had been in 20 years. In the months that followed, things slowly began to improve as Turkey benefited from stronger global economic conditions coupled with new domestic corporate capital restrictions, informal cash inflows from abroad, and better-than-expected winter weather, all of which provided a temporary reprieve from the country’s long-standing economic woes.
But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and neighboring Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, registering magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, just hours apart. As of Feb. 13, the total death toll in Turkey was over 30,000; tens of thousands more have been injured, thousands of buildings have been destroyed, and the total physical damage and loss of future growth is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars.
The total cost of the destruction caused by earthquakes is still unclear, but it will not be less than $10 billion and it could be much more — as much as $84 billion, according to one estimate from Turkish business group Turkonfed, or around 10% of GDP. More than 8,000 residential and commercial buildings collapsed. These will need to be rebuilt and many others will have to be repaired or replaced if construction standards are tightened. Public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and government offices have been heavily damaged. Intercity gas, oil, and electricity lines need to be repaired as well. Some strategic infrastructure, like the Tarsus-Gaziantep Highway, İskenderun Port, and Hatay Airport, was moderately damaged, although the Kirkuk-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelines were reportedly not. No information has been released yet about the Iskenderun steel factory and the Dörtyol gas terminal. There are critical energy production facilities in the region as well, such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant; Afşin-Elbistan thermal power plant; and Berke, Aslantaş, Atatürk, Keban, and Karakaya dams. So far no significant damage to these has been reported either.
In addition to reconstruction, there are other costs as well, like living expenses for the thousands of people affected by the earthquakes. The total population of the region is 13.4 million. Most of them are safe; however, their work conditions will change. At least half a million of them will need state support to meet their basic needs — food, accommodation, and heating. Medical and educational expenses must be taken into account as well, and the earthquakes will also affect their ability to work and consume. So far, the Turkish government has allocated an initial $5.3 billion in disaster relief.
The upcoming elections remain a major source of uncertainty :
Erdogan’s Hit and Run Election – Turkey’s opposition bloc is now left one tinny short of a six-pack. Some say Aksener is now becoming a valuable piece on Erdogan's chess board.
After a dozen meetings between its half-dozen constituents, the Nation’s Alliance failed to reach a unanimous selection of a presidential candidate to challenge Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May’s national ballot. Exasperated IYI Party leader Meral Aksener walked out of talks on Friday, unable or unwilling to accept that Turkey's Gandhi Kemal Kilicdaroglu was the optimal choice to run as Erdogan’s opponent. She has a point. She’s not alone.
A loose coalition had been assembled to establish unity and prioritise the ousting of Erdogan at the expense of party fealty, but they neither came, saw nor conquered. Instead, as Erdogan crowed, ‘They sat, they talked and they dispersed’. The damage to the opposition’s electoral prospects is substantial but is it irreparable?
By rights, given the myriad crises besetting Turkey right now and the economic omnishambles over which Erdogan has presided for two decades, a united opposition should be able to nominate a chimpanzee or a block of feta cheese to stand against Erdogan and secure a landslide. If only it were that simple.
IMF/NATO/ The West:
In this stage the Turkish Lira might become even more vulnerable if Erdogan insists on not deciding where his country belongs. Turkey keeps blocking Sweden's Nato membership bid which makes things more difficult in his relations with the Western block whereas he remains 'Trapped in Putin's Embrace''
In a few words: The dangers on the Turkish Lira have increased dramatically and the country could be entering into a much volatile and fragile election period amidst grown uncertainty. It looks to me that the West can not trust Erdogan and unless he makes a move closer to NATO and the Western allies things could become gloomier.
(remember: Former POTUS Donald Trump, who owns a Trump tower in Turkey and is a friend of Erdogan had threatened to ‘devastate’ Turkey’s economy. which still kind of looks like a valid scenario of the 'West' trying to get rid of Erdogan by weakening his economy).
So now, especially after the earthquake Turkey's economy is more vulnerable and Erdogan's games between 'east and west' could be a grave danger for the Turkish Lira.
Who is more affected?
The people of Turkey. Lira's weakening has become a struggle for Turkish citizens in recent years and things could become even worse. Then again, it's the same people who will soon vote what they think is better for them and their future.
Our condolences to all the families affected from the earthquakes. Such an unbelievable tragedy can make one think how small we stand in front of nature.
May the people in the affected areas receive all the assistance the international community can offer and may their leadership look for what's best for it's people.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
ps. i hope this post/idea doesn't go as well as the last one: and may instead can be another epic rebound:
Turkish lira - Will take a Break then Higher to 26,5 per Euro Turkish Lira at 20 and our trade is now complete:
Perfect (re) entry at 15,8 before that Breakout: and it was a 'perfect entry':
Let's not forget the also perfect first entry here: www.tradingview.com
Trading wise i must admit, these EURTRY trades have been fantastic for us but at the same time it's a worrying sutuation for Turkish people (maybe not so much for Erdogan but i really don't want to go into politics nor to analyse his thinking or decision making).
High inflation will keep Turkish people paying more for their imports and make it impossible for most to get education abroad or buy a German car.
At the same time it will make it easier (in a degree) for Turkey to produce and export but that will also be affected sooner or later because we do live in a 'connected world' and producing also demands importing (energy, material, goods, technology etc)
Elections are coming next year and volatility of all kinds is already on:
www.hrw.org
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
My chart shows that the price may drop to 18.49 before a new test of the 20 Liras resistance (rounded psychological resistance of the strongest kind).
Once and if price goes over 20 Lira /euro then 26,5 will be a key level to watch out for.
Can the price drop back to normal levels of 12 to 15,5 ?
Only if political situation normalizes and things go smoothly in Turkiye.
Then again, Erdogan is full of surprises...which is probably not a good thing.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Ps. Putin and the US all want Turkey 'close' and the country is trying to balance itself with a leg on each side. Historically Turkey takes 'sides' once the winner is clear but that will take time at a period where time is ticking out for Turkish people's prosperity. It doesn't look good to me.
EURTRY $EURTRY Initial LongEURTRY $EURTRY Initial Long. This is a pure momentum signal just as are every other signal I post. ZERO other factors are considered in producing this signal.
Entry reasons: EURTRY is showing momentum and confluence of mean reversion crossing up the 70 day price mean.
Exits and SL: TP and SL on chart. Move SL on TP. After TP2, trail with 0.5xATR step and 1.5xATR offset.
EUR/TRY LOOKING BEARISH, THIS IS WHYI am aware of the current geopolitical problems in the world and especially in Turkey.
Also the economy of Turkey has had a very hard time.
In 2023 there seem to be re-elections. Maybe if they get rid of Erdogan there can be a future.
Also 2023 is like the holy grail year for the Turks because they can "pump the oil out of the ground", because of a so called 100-year contract ending.
Anyhow, returning to the chart what I see is a double top and a breakout downward from a parabolic move.
I would be comfortable to buy some Turkish Lira at these levels, looking at those signs and the current risk level.
EURTRY - Forex PerfectionFirstly, a Perfect entry:
Secondly and most importantly:
EURTRY Long perfectly hedged the EURUSD Short from 1,23 to parity:
Not sure how impressed anyone might be but hey: professor proved the nickname with this set...
Not to mention that is also hedges EURAUD Short now (that has replaced EURUSD short):
Been killing it, couldn't have asked for more.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR
Keep in touch for More!
Turkish Lira - The Perfect EntryBeen a great timing but after all that's how I try to stand out.
Much of my audience is 'Crypto only', others are 'against trading with leverage' and the worst category is ' I trade leverage but I have no idea how to do it right'...
All 3 categories have an EXPIRATION DATE:
Crypto only will lack understanding of the markets and I'm afraid to say the x100 x1000 are probably history.
The 'No leverage' category has no means to go short... Expiration almost guaranteed
Lastly the 'aggressive' ones with no knowledge or even worse when they 'Think they know' but they don't, now that's GUARANTEED Expiration.
EURTRY Trade, perfect execution on May 9 :https://www.tradingview.com/chart/EURTRY/mUBPkt7E-EURTRY-Inflation-Beast-is-Back/
1. Fundamentals were strong (just read the post then and the reasoning)
2. Technically: Breakout, equals perfect entry
3. Risk management: reasonable risk
4. RRR: Totally worth the risk
28 days later, 33 times the risk and still going strong
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR
PS. Erdogan is becoming dangerous.. for Turkey and the Turks. barış, kardeşler
EURTRY - Ready for the Next One? 😺Allow us the Happy face and the good mood because simply, this was a PERFECT ANALYSIS and EXECUTION!
We are referring to this idea of ours back in May 9th (yes, we do trade what we post):
x20 in a classic Forex trade is something to be happy for and today we will take some profit.
It's not the first time we get EURTRY right, feel free to check our previous posts below.
FXPROFESSOR STYLE indeed..Who is ready for the next one? 😺
One Love,
the FXProfessor
EURTRY - Stopped at 15,7 (Exactly!)Great trade that was again with a take profit hit at exactly 15,7 level as per our previous idea :
News:
Turkish inflation has reached its highest level since Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to power almost two decades ago as the president’s contentious economic management sparks a surge in prices.
The country’s consumer price index rose 36 per cent year on year in December, according to data released by Turkey’s statistical agency on Monday.
In the meantime, Erdogan is trying to balance between Russia and the West:
-President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan discussed Turkey-Russia relations and regional developments with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a statement by the Presidential Communications Directorate said Sunday.
-At the same time Turkey asks US to set up joint mechanism to resolve differences
Difficult for Turks to find ease and believe but Erdogan is trying:
"I want all my citizens to keep their savings in our own money , to run all their business with our own money, and I recommend this," Erdogan said in a speech in Istanbul.
Hopefully the worst is over but all will depend on what happens in the political front. this game is all about politics.
One Love,
the FXPROFESSOR