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EUR TRY

EURTRY BULLISHTurkish lira fell to new marginally lower record low in early Wednesday, as Turkish June inflation data sparked fresh weakness of the currency. Monthly inflation rose by 3.9% in June, below 4.8% consensus and annualized figure was also below expectations (38.2% in June vs 39.4% f/c), while consumer prices were slightly below previous month’s figure (June PPI 40.4% vs May 40.7%). Inflation remains elevated, though significantly below last October’s 85.5%, the highest in over two decades.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
2
EURTRY LongTechnical Analysis Trend Bullish Weekly Long Daily Long 10H Long 4H Long 2 H Long 30min. LONG Gold Bullish Strategy Bullish My Trading Conditions and my Rules(This are the Rules I follow,and they are no financial adivice for others) Trade Consditions Higher Highs Higher Lows Trade Rules: Taking only Buy Signals Trade Rule 2: Only Buy Signals Trade Rule 3: Exit only, if a Pullback my Stops hit. Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%). Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly NZX Trades Slightly Higher New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low Argentina Indicators Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23 Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23 Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23 Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23 Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23 Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23 Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23 Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22 Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22 The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
One time Hell 🔥 - Two times Paradise 🏝️💼Hello Traders, I'd like to take a moment to discuss a rather peculiar scenario unfolding in the world of Forex, centered on the Turkish Lira (TRY). It's a tale of two paradises – a seeming conundrum where what seems like a hardship for one can be a fortune for another. 🔥 Hell for Turkish people: Firstly, let's understand the current state of Turkey's economy. With ongoing economic uncertainty under President Erdogan, it's a trying time for the Turkish population. The economic policies, coupled with steep inflation rates and the devaluation of the Turkish Lira, are causing a significant amount of strife for locals. In other words, it's a tough environment for the average Turkish citizen - a kind of 'economic hell', if you will. 💼 Paradise for Forex Brokers On the flip side, the very turmoil that's causing despair for the Turkish people is creating a unique set of opportunities for Forex brokers. The Lira's volatility is attracting an increasing number of traders, drawn by the promise of high risk, high reward scenarios. Yet, the Forex market is a fickle beast, and as we see the Lira begin to trade sideways, the profits expected by these traders could be replaced by hefty commission fees, effectively creating a 'broker paradise' of sorts. Not for traders..for brokers! 🏝️ Paradise for Erdogan's Tourist season The second 'paradise' situation can be found in Turkey's tourism industry. Despite the economic challenges, or rather because of them, Turkey will see a surge in foreign tourists. The weakened Lira makes it an affordable destination for many, boosting the local tourism sector. Cheap currency, while problematic domestically, can be a tourist's paradise, offering them more bang for their buck. Especially for Russians, who currently are treated as 'blocked' citizens for European countries. Erdogan must be very happy with a cheap Lira this summer. he will make his moves towards the end of the summer, trust me on this one. 🛑 Don't trade TRY this period So what does this mean for us as traders? It serves as a reminder that markets are multifaceted and that the factors influencing them are interwoven in complex ways. Although the TRY might be attractive due to its high volatility, remember that trading in such conditions can be risky. In the short term, we might see the TRY continue to trade sideways, meaning that the cost of trading might outweigh the benefits. I am already out of my TRY Trades for this reason. Remember, trading is about understanding the dynamics of the market and adapting your strategies accordingly. Stay safe, stay informed, and trade wisely. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Mine is to sit out this summer and go Long on Turkish lira after the tourist season. 👑President Erdogan, you might just be a Forex genius - although I can't say for sure. It still does not look healthy at all 🔥 Good luck and happy trading! the FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
Türk lirası (USDTRY)- Textbook Entries 🏛️📑Given that I am Long on EURUSD this period i prefer to trade EURTRY instead of USDTRY: Check my post here for targets: Thoughts: Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports. People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected. A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I will dare to call  'Islamo-China-ization': Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad.  China for example likes their currency cheap. Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'. Creating an 'enemy or 2 or 3 or 50' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. Are people happy in those countries/regimes? These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people. Will the IMF need to step in? Will it want to step in? Will Erdogan accept it? Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?) run to the rescue for their own interest? Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money) All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer. For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR. 26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here. By the way, my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row: When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'. The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations. (Look at the last 2 links below....) “Old men make war, young men fight and die.” — Winston Churchill I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy. Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Links: Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : www.theguardian.com The West: www.bbc.com Brics: watcher.guru Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: www.reuters.com Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES: www.tradingview.com
Long
by FX_Professor
15
EURTRY- Textbook Entries 🏛️📑Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports. People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected. A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I call 'Islamo-Chinaization': Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad. China for example likes their currency cheap. Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'. Creating an 'enemy or 2' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people. Will the IMF need to step in? Will it want to step in? Will Erdogan accept it? Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?) run to the rescue for their own interest? Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money) All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer. For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR. 26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here. By the way, my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row: When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'. The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations. (Look at the last 2 links below....) “Old men make war, young men fight and die.” — Winston Churchill I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy. Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 🌅 Links: Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : www.theguardian.com The West: www.bbc.com Brics: watcher.guru Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: www.reuters.com Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES:
Long
by FX_Professor
6
Erdogan win most lucrative trade of EURTRY continuesI'm writing to you today to discuss the recent election results in Turkey and how they have impacted the value of the Turkish lira. As you may know, President Erdogan's party suffered a significant setback in the recent local elections, which has caused a drop in the value of the Turkish lira. While this news may concern some, it presents a unique opportunity for forex traders like us to invest in the Turkish lira at a lower value. He just won again today! I encourage you to take advantage of this opportunity and invest in the Turkish lira. With the right strategy and analysis, you could see a significant investment return. As always, doing your research and making informed decisions regarding forex trading is essential. But with the current situation in Turkey, there's never been a better time to consider investing in the Turkish lira. Thank you for your time, and happy trading!
Long
by bryandowningqln
Go long on EURUSD, this will enable you to profit from it In the 30-minute chart, there is currently a pullback after an uptrend, while in the 2-hour chart, there are clear bullish signals and the MACD indicator is about to form a golden cross, presenting a great opportunity to go long. Yesterday, I shared these ideas with my friends , who were the first to see my strategies. In addition, I also have trading strategies for Bitcoin, gold, crude oil, GBPUSD, and USDCNY, all of which are medium-term strategies and excellent for those who prefer to trade on a medium-term basis. Of course, if you prefer to trade quickly, you can still find trading opportunities from the charts. Traders, if you like my sharing, please follow and support me. I will post more interesting trading information involving gold, crude oil, forex, cryptocurrency, and stocks. If you have any questions, please leave a message in the comment section, and I will answer them for you.
Long
by EagleEyeStrategy
Long EURUSD, target 1.10-1.113 EUR/USD is currently near the resistance level. Today, we need to pay attention to the support near 1.088 and the resistance near 1.094. Judging from the current situation, today's strategy will be based on low long positions. I will tell you when to trade. Stay tuned. I will release more strategies later, including OIL, gold, GBPUSD, BTC, etc. If you are trading, you can follow me, if you have any questions, you can tell me, and I will help you answer them
Long
by EagleEyeStrategy
20 Reasons BUY EURUSD 🔆MULTI-TIME FRAME TOP-DOWN ANALYSIS OVERVIEW☀️ 1:✨Eagle eye: bullish trend also filled corrective wave 2:📆Monthly: after a valid low price goes to a corrective back formaatting a builduo here in favor of bulls 3:📅Weekly: choch done also make support with proper lower high low 4:🕛Daily: bullish structure here stating an impulsive move 😇7 Dimension analysis 🟢 analysis time frame: daily 5: 1 Price Structure: bullish 6: 2 Pattern Candle Chart: record session count and correction done 7: 3 Volume: bullish volume is in power 8: 4 Momentum UNCONVENTIONAL Rsi: protected 40 areas also bullish formation here long consolidation 9: 5 Volatility measure Bollinger bands: walking on the band and middle band support 10: 6 Strength ADX: sharp bear dmi up, but bulls are still in power 11: 7 Sentiment ROC: eur stronge ✔️ Entry Time Frame: h1 12: Entry TF Structure: right now is bearish, but based on sentiments and bigger tf, we are seeking buy entries only 13: entry move: impulsive 14: Support resistance base: h4 d1 15: FIB: trigger event done ☑️ final comments: test entry. If it confirms, add 2nd entry at the upper side breakout 16: 💡decision: buy 17: 🚀Entry: 1.07609 18: ✋Stop losel:1.0773 19: 🎯Take profit:1.089 20: 😊Risk to reward Ratio: 1:5 🕛 Excepted Duration: 2 days
Long
by Optimum369
EURUSD ROAD TO 1.16 AND BEYOND!The EURUSD IS LOOKING PROMISING! Many positive economic data and a recovery in its economy has been surrounding the EURUSD lately. As US has attempted to drag the EURUSD down with its rapid increase in interest rates the EURUSD has had a strong recovery as well. On september the EURUSD was at a price of $0.99 for the first time since 2002! IT WAS A NO BRAINER BUY IF YOU SAW IT AT THOSE PRICES!!! Here are other factors that are influencing on its rise: Strong economic data: The Eurozone has recently seen positive economic data. This suggests that the Eurozone economy is recovering from the previous economic attack, which may support the value of the euro. Interest rate differentials: The European Central Bank (ECB) has kept interest rates low, while the US Federal Reserve has been alarmingly increasing interest rates. This could make the euro relatively more attractive compared to the US dollar, as investors seek higher returns on their investments. Weakness in the US dollar: The US dollar has weakened against other major currencies recently, in part due to concerns about rising inflation and the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more. This has made the euro relatively more valuable in comparison. Have a nice day!
Long
by CryptoGao1
EURUSD: Buy at low levels On the 30-minute chart, we can see that the recent lows have been steadily rising, indicating an upward bias in the trend. On the 1-hour chart, the current market is near support (which was previously a resistance level, but was broken through yesterday and has now become a support level). As long as there is no significant break below this level, buying at these low levels is possible. The target reference point is the previous high, with a potential break above targeting around 1.08. Support below is at 1.065-1.063.
Long
by triumphing
4
Turkish Lira - Doesn't look good...Already vulnerable, Turkey’s economy now faces massive earthquake recovery costs: After a difficult year, things finally seemed to be looking up for Turkey’s beleaguered economy in early 2023. Just six months earlier, in June 2022, the economy was on the brink: Turkey was facing a potential balance of payments crisis, meaning it would be unable to redeem foreign currency debts and pay the bills for imported goods. The credit default swap premium, paid annually to guarantee redemption of five-year dollar-denominated eurobonds, was hovering over 9% — the highest level since the 2001 banking crisis — and sovereign credit ratings for external loans were the lowest they had been in 20 years. In the months that followed, things slowly began to improve as Turkey benefited from stronger global economic conditions coupled with new domestic corporate capital restrictions, informal cash inflows from abroad, and better-than-expected winter weather, all of which provided a temporary reprieve from the country’s long-standing economic woes. But then on Feb. 6 the worst happened: Turkey and neighboring Syria were hit by a pair of massive earthquakes, registering magnitudes of 7.8 and 7.5, just hours apart. As of Feb. 13, the total death toll in Turkey was over 30,000; tens of thousands more have been injured, thousands of buildings have been destroyed, and the total physical damage and loss of future growth is estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. The total cost of the destruction caused by earthquakes is still unclear, but it will not be less than $10 billion and it could be much more — as much as $84 billion, according to one estimate from Turkish business group Turkonfed, or around 10% of GDP. More than 8,000 residential and commercial buildings collapsed. These will need to be rebuilt and many others will have to be repaired or replaced if construction standards are tightened. Public buildings such as schools, hospitals, and government offices have been heavily damaged. Intercity gas, oil, and electricity lines need to be repaired as well. Some strategic infrastructure, like the Tarsus-Gaziantep Highway, İskenderun Port, and Hatay Airport, was moderately damaged, although the Kirkuk-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipelines were reportedly not. No information has been released yet about the Iskenderun steel factory and the Dörtyol gas terminal. There are critical energy production facilities in the region as well, such as the Akkuyu nuclear power plant; Afşin-Elbistan thermal power plant; and Berke, Aslantaş, Atatürk, Keban, and Karakaya dams. So far no significant damage to these has been reported either. In addition to reconstruction, there are other costs as well, like living expenses for the thousands of people affected by the earthquakes. The total population of the region is 13.4 million. Most of them are safe; however, their work conditions will change. At least half a million of them will need state support to meet their basic needs — food, accommodation, and heating. Medical and educational expenses must be taken into account as well, and the earthquakes will also affect their ability to work and consume. So far, the Turkish government has allocated an initial $5.3 billion in disaster relief. The upcoming elections remain a major source of uncertainty : Erdogan’s Hit and Run Election – Turkey’s opposition bloc is now left one tinny short of a six-pack. Some say Aksener is now becoming a valuable piece on Erdogan's chess board. After a dozen meetings between its half-dozen constituents, the Nation’s Alliance failed to reach a unanimous selection of a presidential candidate to challenge Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in May’s national ballot. Exasperated IYI Party leader Meral Aksener walked out of talks on Friday, unable or unwilling to accept that Turkey's Gandhi Kemal Kilicdaroglu was the optimal choice to run as Erdogan’s opponent. She has a point. She’s not alone. A loose coalition had been assembled to establish unity and prioritise the ousting of Erdogan at the expense of party fealty, but they neither came, saw nor conquered. Instead, as Erdogan crowed, ‘They sat, they talked and they dispersed’. The damage to the opposition’s electoral prospects is substantial but is it irreparable? By rights, given the myriad crises besetting Turkey right now and the economic omnishambles over which Erdogan has presided for two decades, a united opposition should be able to nominate a chimpanzee or a block of feta cheese to stand against Erdogan and secure a landslide. If only it were that simple. IMF/NATO/ The West: In this stage the Turkish Lira might become even more vulnerable if Erdogan insists on not deciding where his country belongs. Turkey keeps blocking Sweden's Nato membership bid which makes things more difficult in his relations with the Western block whereas he remains 'Trapped in Putin's Embrace'' In a few words: The dangers on the Turkish Lira have increased dramatically and the country could be entering into a much volatile and fragile election period amidst grown uncertainty. It looks to me that the West can not trust Erdogan and unless he makes a move closer to NATO and the Western allies things could become gloomier. (remember: Former POTUS Donald Trump, who owns a Trump tower in Turkey and is a friend of Erdogan had threatened to ‘devastate’ Turkey’s economy. which still kind of looks like a valid scenario of the 'West' trying to get rid of Erdogan by weakening his economy). So now, especially after the earthquake Turkey's economy is more vulnerable and Erdogan's games between 'east and west' could be a grave danger for the Turkish Lira. Who is more affected? The people of Turkey. Lira's weakening has become a struggle for Turkish citizens in recent years and things could become even worse. Then again, it's the same people who will soon vote what they think is better for them and their future. Our condolences to all the families affected from the earthquakes. Such an unbelievable tragedy can make one think how small we stand in front of nature. May the people in the affected areas receive all the assistance the international community can offer and may their leadership look for what's best for it's people. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR ps. i hope this post/idea doesn't go as well as the last one: and may instead can be another epic rebound:
Long
by FX_Professor
15
Turkish lira - Will take a Break then Higher to 26,5 per Euro Turkish Lira at 20 and our trade is now complete: Perfect (re) entry at 15,8 before that Breakout: and it was a 'perfect entry': Let's not forget the also perfect first entry here: www.tradingview.com Trading wise i must admit, these EURTRY trades have been fantastic for us but at the same time it's a worrying sutuation for Turkish people (maybe not so much for Erdogan but i really don't want to go into politics nor to analyse his thinking or decision making). High inflation will keep Turkish people paying more for their imports and make it impossible for most to get education abroad or buy a German car. At the same time it will make it easier (in a degree) for Turkey to produce and export but that will also be affected sooner or later because we do live in a 'connected world' and producing also demands importing (energy, material, goods, technology etc) Elections are coming next year and volatility of all kinds is already on: www.hrw.org TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: My chart shows that the price may drop to 18.49 before a new test of the 20 Liras resistance (rounded psychological resistance of the strongest kind). Once and if price goes over 20 Lira /euro then 26,5 will be a key level to watch out for. Can the price drop back to normal levels of 12 to 15,5 ? Only if political situation normalizes and things go smoothly in Turkiye. Then again, Erdogan is full of surprises...which is probably not a good thing. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Ps. Putin and the US all want Turkey 'close' and the country is trying to balance itself with a leg on each side. Historically Turkey takes 'sides' once the winner is clear but that will take time at a period where time is ticking out for Turkish people's prosperity. It doesn't look good to me.
by FX_Professor
7