EUR TRY
EUR/TRY: Shake It Up, Şekerim! 💃💃💃It’s 2007, you are sitting at home watching the Eurovision Song Contest and this dude from Turkey, Kenan Doğulu, completely rocks the show with his song “Shake It Up, Şekerim (my sugar)”! Fast forward 14 years, a lot of shaking is happening in the Turkish Lira against which the Euro gained massively recently. As it stands right now, we expect the Euro to hit prices of 10₺ and above. Only condition for this scenario to realize is that we do not fall below 8.3344₺. However, with the current surge, we are more than well-positioned to attack the 10₺ mark.
Happy trading!
EUR/TRY: Underrated Paradise 🌅Turkey is mostly known for its long history, culture, amazing cuisine and for stunning landscapes, but we have found out that it is also a great place for investments! As we have indicated in the chart, there is a trading zone between 8.630697₺ - 8.145568₺, in which we have entered this market on the long position. We expect the course to further increase sharply. Since we have only recently left the trading zone, there is still time to hop on the moving train!
Check out our other analyses, too!
EUR/TRY Back To SupportHuge sell off on the EUR this past week, I was looking at this as a chance to long back up to resistance as it is oversold but looking at the bigger picture I think it is best to hold off at the moment. The situation is very bearish and there will certainly be swing trading opportunities here but the trend is going down and longing anything here seems like a big risk not worth taking.
Looking at monthly and weekly timeframes you see this is retracing back to the previous peak from August 2018, if it reaches this point that would be the perfect time to be longing this. Although it may not go as far as this, we are now at 0.618 Fibonacci and as this is currently oversold it could reject this area and level off before rising again back towards the all time high.
With this in mind it makes sense to hold off a trade on this pair and some other EUR pairs until the situation unfolds. Once it does it could open up some very profitable opportunities.
EUR/TRY Buy ContinuationFor demonstration and educational purposes only. Overall trend is bullish on higher timeframe. Previous month selling was anticipated correction. Note price is sitting at a key demand zone, 50% of previous impulse. Trade at your own risk, perform your own analysis, and use proper risk management.
EURTRY Buy Setup!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow.
on H4: EURTRY is sitting around strong trendline in brown so we will be looking for trend-following buy setups on lower timeframes.
on H1: EURTRY formed a trendline in red.
Trigger: Waiting for a momentum candle close above the gray area to buy.
and until the buy is activated, this one would be overall bearish and can still dive a little below the brown trendline.
As price approaches our upper green supply, we will be looking for sell setups.
Good luck!
Turkish Lira sells the rumour of a rate hike: buy the news?Hello traders.
I have been in a bit of a pickle this month: between elections in the US and a stalling EUR/USD,
my demo took a bit of a hit (more than I care to tell) and one big mistake was to go long SP500
on the NYSE open the very day that a Covid19 vaccine was announced... There was optimism on
Wall Street and I was looking for some direction in anything that had candlesticks to its name...
I got caught out in a false move AND the platform froze for several hours, before I could work out
stops etc. I lost 75k of paper money, which really hurt my pride and my record.
I have gone about reconstructing my account and really giving myself a big talk about never trusting
the media on 'optimism' stories when it comes to my own trading. Sitting on your hands for several
weeks is indeed what you sometimes have to do, but it does become difficult if that has not been
necessary for some time.
I have looked at Bitcoin, again ignoring media stories but actually genuinely trying to get in on the
latest swing high, though now it is showing RSI divergence on the daily and looking like it is struggling,
thus I am staying out of that one for now.
My other two trades are: USD/MXN long, which looks to be worth holding on to for a wide target, as
it is quite oversold and testing former resistance (now support) from 2018 and 2019, around the 20,000-20,100 mark;
the second trade is EUR/TRY long, which takes me to the topic of this video.
In the rate hike of today, what did the Turkish central bank hope to achieve? Stem inflation and rescue the ongoing
currency crisis. Erdogan is somehow changing his tune with the newly appointed governor, probably tired of watching
his beloved Lira falling by more than 30 percent this year alone (on top of more losses before that) and forcing a rate hold
on the central bank.
My contention is that the last few days we say a 10,000+ pip sell-off that was on the anticipation of the hike, whereas action
today was quite muted (although still bearish) and that seems to suggest that Lira buying is done - buy the rumour, sell the news -
thus it is back to business as before, selling Lira (and watching the decade-old USD/TRY uptrend continue).
I go into more detail, so please look at my volume analysis through MSCI iShares Turkey ETF to get a sense of how I am looking at
this long trade as a goer.
Thanks for watching!
See you in my next
Francesco (FreeFX)
New Turkish Central Bank Governor has come in guns blazingPedal to the metal
It looks like the new Governor to the Turkish Central Bank has put his foot on the gas to stop the Turkish Lira from falling.
Let's hope he doesn't run out of gas any time soon.
I hope so, but looking at the technical picture all he has done this morning is push the rate of the EURTRY back to previous support and back to the mean of the up trend.
Selling Gold?
How much more Gold will they need to sell to change the trend?
And is there any amount of Gold that can change the trend at all.
Serious stuff
It would be interesting to watch, if it was not for the 80 million Turkish livelihoods that depend on the outcome. This is serious stuff. Best case scenario will be that the trend will turn at the cost of selling some Gold reserves. Worst case scenario is that the trend will continue and that Gold reserves will be depleted. This could lead to massive inflation and poverty. I sincerly hope it doesn't come that far.
EURO - TURKISH LIRA | $EURTRY - PARABOLIC CURVE FORMATIONEURO - TURKISH LIRA | I used 2 methods: The Purple color is a Parabolic Curve Step-Like Formation and The Blue one is Livermore's Speculative Chart.
$EURTRY will top @ 16 and will break the parabolic formation followed by a 80% correction. So 80% correction from 16 will bring $EURTRY to 3.
EUR/TRY: long trade closed in profit (Demo) as trend at extreme.Hello traders,
the readings on RSI and ATR, as well as the angle of the current hyperbolic move, make for difficult incentives for
holding a long trade on EUR/TRY: therefore, I closed my trade about 50% through the profit target and made a healthy
catch (over 26k).
In this video the key points discussed are:
- ATR divergence/waning (multi-timeframe analysis);
- RSI poss. divergence and also extreme reading (90+) in monthly/weekly;
- angle of hyperbolic rise starting to shape toward a vertical, strikingly similar to that of the 2018 move;
- extreme oversold reading in the MSCI Turkey ETF iShares and fading sell volume after historic lows warns of Lira-short exhaustion.
I also share a news source that is fundamental for Turkish Lira traders - watch the video to the end (no sales, it is a public resource)!
Thanks.
Stay safe
Happy trading
Francesco/FreeFX
EUR/USD long-term analysis: wait and see!EUR/USD is just keeping within the upper boundary of a 12-year downtrend channel
and volume in FX futures is inconclusive, though it seems that there is plenty of
ammunition for sellers to keep it there.
In this video I explain why I am neutral, and also show how trading EUR/TRY makes
sense as the two pairs have very little correlation.
Take care!
Francesco