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EUR TRY

EUR/TRY long play, medium-term, using Fib extensions.EUR/TRY is one of the few FX pairs that can truly rival stock-market trending: this (and its parent pair, USD/TRY) has been uptrending almost incessantly for over a decade, something that is quite rare in the fx world - other examples are true outliers such as USD/IRR and USD/ARS, but these are not accessible through your ordinary broker. What I learnt from trading the summer 2018 correction into early 2019 was that this was a short-lived relief move for the Turkish Lira, but the uptrend has since returned with force and seems unstoppable. As I developed the Lira carry trade idea in 2018 and 2019 I managed (on demo) to accrue over £2k of interest by holding short, however I then realised that the pace of upward movement was soon outstripping any profit made by playing the short carry-trade. I stopped trading this pair long-term and only dipped back into it for intra-day trades to the long side, again appreciating that it has near-zero correlation to EUR/USD and is actually truly motivated by Turkish monetary events and speculative positioning of its own making. This means that on a quiet day trading the EUR/USD I could always look over to the EUR/TRY and find opportunities there, short-term, knowing full well that its higher intra-day range is also matched by very poor per-pip value and a very expensive margin requirement tag: all in all. a difficult pair to trade intra-day. This is where I am coming back to it for a slightly longer-term play: this time I am using FIbonacci expansion/extension tools, looking at the monthly line chart from the start of data (2008) up to the hyperbolic peak of summer 2018, then for the retracement down to the bottom of early 2019: the resulting projections give some realistic forecast of price movement into the future. Given that we are constantly breaking new highs, just like stocks or indices have been doing for years, it becomes impossible to use past prices to determine support/resistance zones, thus I am looking into this particular indicator to try gauging on a mathematical basis where we can expect price to reach. My target is actually 10,000 - a strong round-number level by definition - which is about half-way between the two nearest Fib levels, thus a reasonable chance of being filled; the trailing stop is at about 2:! Reward-Risk ratio and the position size is 1M. Let us see how this goes! Time-horizon is variable but I would give it about six weeks, thus until early December or so, to play out. Good luck trading out there. Francesco, FreeFX
Long
by Forexistential
3
EURTRY time to SELL Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others. Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources. Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you trade. Technically, EURTRY looks bearish on the charts too. The 9.00 mark acts as a strong rounded-number resistance level. Peace and prosperity to all and good trding wishes to our friends and followers
Short
by FX_Professor
1
ridethepig | Turkish Lira Strategy🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan - the same plan since 2018 (yes 2018). In this position, wave 5 was an obvious impulse, because after buyers held support they could then start to promote their positions and adding to winners. The 30% upside once looked miles away and is now shining us right in the face, will sellers dare to come out? Will other sharp speculators riding this for months/quarters want to also take profits? If buyers hold 7.82xx it will trigger the collapsing of local banks, so we make this play with a heavy heart. It would be interesting to investigate further whether we will get the intermediate highs in USDTRY, so lets leave some partials running incase we get capitulation...
by ridethepig
4
The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day MA will continue its upward trendTurkey’s up-and-down relationship with Greece has been causing unwanted tension in the forex market. Even after weeks of conflict between the two countries, it looks like even the announcement that they’re willing to start talks to resolve the issue wouldn’t be enough to ease worries. The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day moving average will continue its upward trend after its surge against the 200-day moving average in early August, and it looks like the tables won’t turn until the countries come up with a definite agreement. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is content with the jumping euro because its president Christine Lagarde postponed her decision on interest rate policies to next week. Moreover, its gross domestic product contracted less than the market expected for the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter. July had seen an 11.8 percent decline, less than the 12.1 percent initially estimated. The notion that the eurozone is improving faster than expected is projected to help the falling lira near-term.
Long
by Financebroker
The European Central Bank is content with the jumping euroTurkey’s up-and-down relationship with Greece has been causing unwanted tension in the forex market. Even after weeks of conflict between the two countries, it looks like even the announcement that they’re willing to start talks to resolve the issue wouldn’t be enough to ease worries. The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day moving average will continue its upward trend after its surge against the 200-day moving average in early August, and it looks like the tables won’t turn until the countries come up with a definite agreement. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is content with the jumping euro because its president Christine Lagarde postponed her decision on interest rate policies to next week. Moreover, its gross domestic product contracted less than the market expected for the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter. July had seen an 11.8 percent decline, less than the 12.1 percent initially estimated. The notion that the eurozone is improving faster than expected is projected to help the falling lira near-term.
Long
by Financebroker
2
Bearish Divergence on EUR TRYThe CBRT responded to the recent lira weakening by tightening the liquidity conditions in a significant way, although more may need to be done to stabilize the markets. The CBRT first made a press announcement stating that a) liquidity measures introduced to support growth would be phased out; and b) all available instruments would be used to reduce market volatility (suggesting rate hikes could be on the agenda). The Bank then halved the amount of cheap funding (offered at 100bp below the policy rate) to primary dealers. Finally, the Bank did not open the daily 1-week repo auction (with the 8.25% interest rate), forcing banks to borrow from the more costly ON lending facility (with interest rate 9.75%). If the remaining 1-week repos are also not rolled over, then the CBRT’s effective funding rate will increase from 7.50% to 9.75% within a week. Such measures should help to reduce the demand for FX and should slow down the loan growth, mitigating worries over price and financial stability. However, it remains to be seen if they will be enough to restore confidence and to stabilize the markets.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3984200
Reports for the EU member states’ GDPThe pair failed to break out from a major resistance line, sending the pair lower towards the nearest support line. Most reports for the EU member states’ GDP data will be published today, July 31. Yesterday, the EU’s largest economy already had its GDP results which disappointed investors. Germany’s economy for the second quarter of the fiscal year declined by 10.1%. Expectations for Q2 figures for France, Italy, and Spain’s economic performance were all double-digit declines as well. Spain is expected to suffer the worst decline among the three EU countries who will report today with -16.6%. Meanwhile, France and Italy’s forecast for its second-quarter GDP were -15.3 and -15.0, respectively. Also, the European Union will be posting its bi-monthly report for GDP, and expectations for the figure was at -11.2%. These data will hurt the single currency in the short-term. For the long-term outlook, the European region is expected to recover in Q3 and Q4.
Short
by Financebroker
EUR / TRY 7/6/2020Welcome to this analysis on Euro / Turkish Lira. EUR / TRY has been in a massive macro uptrend since 2019, It paused around the highs of the previous uptrend cycle of 2018 at 7.850. Since the 7th of May, the market has gone sideways, it had a pullback to 7.35, re accumulated there, and bounce back to the previous high. Looking at the structure, it looks like it has made a Symmetrical triangle pattern which can also be a handle of a Cup And Handle continuation patter if price closes above the previous high at 7.85. The target of the triangle is at 7.9 and the target of the Cup And Handle is around 8.25. The 2 levels of resistance above the current price are the previous high at 7.85 which used to be a daily close high of the 2018 cycle as well and above that the psychological 8 level which is also the wick highs of 2018 cycle. This trade idea has 2 rewards to risk if it hits the triangle's target and 5.5 R if it hits the target of the Cup And Handles. Good luck trading.
Long
by Trader_Shayan
2
EURTRY waiting for a trigger to sellon DAILY: EURTRY is still sitting around a strong supply zone and All-Time-High so we will be looking for objective sell setups on lower timeframes. on H1: EURTRY broke below our red trendline but we didn't sell yet, as we always wait for a momentum candle close below the last swing for extra confirmation. meanwhile, until the sell is activated, EURTRY would be overall bullish and can still test the upper supply zone before going down.
Short
by TheSignalyst