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EUR TRY

Turkish Lira sells the rumour of a rate hike: buy the news?Hello traders. I have been in a bit of a pickle this month: between elections in the US and a stalling EUR/USD, my demo took a bit of a hit (more than I care to tell) and one big mistake was to go long SP500 on the NYSE open the very day that a Covid19 vaccine was announced... There was optimism on Wall Street and I was looking for some direction in anything that had candlesticks to its name... I got caught out in a false move AND the platform froze for several hours, before I could work out stops etc. I lost 75k of paper money, which really hurt my pride and my record. I have gone about reconstructing my account and really giving myself a big talk about never trusting the media on 'optimism' stories when it comes to my own trading. Sitting on your hands for several weeks is indeed what you sometimes have to do, but it does become difficult if that has not been necessary for some time. I have looked at Bitcoin, again ignoring media stories but actually genuinely trying to get in on the latest swing high, though now it is showing RSI divergence on the daily and looking like it is struggling, thus I am staying out of that one for now. My other two trades are: USD/MXN long, which looks to be worth holding on to for a wide target, as it is quite oversold and testing former resistance (now support) from 2018 and 2019, around the 20,000-20,100 mark; the second trade is EUR/TRY long, which takes me to the topic of this video. In the rate hike of today, what did the Turkish central bank hope to achieve? Stem inflation and rescue the ongoing currency crisis. Erdogan is somehow changing his tune with the newly appointed governor, probably tired of watching his beloved Lira falling by more than 30 percent this year alone (on top of more losses before that) and forcing a rate hold on the central bank. My contention is that the last few days we say a 10,000+ pip sell-off that was on the anticipation of the hike, whereas action today was quite muted (although still bearish) and that seems to suggest that Lira buying is done - buy the rumour, sell the news - thus it is back to business as before, selling Lira (and watching the decade-old USD/TRY uptrend continue). I go into more detail, so please look at my volume analysis through MSCI iShares Turkey ETF to get a sense of how I am looking at this long trade as a goer. Thanks for watching! See you in my next Francesco (FreeFX)
Long
by Forexistential
2
New Turkish Central Bank Governor has come in guns blazingPedal to the metal It looks like the new Governor to the Turkish Central Bank has put his foot on the gas to stop the Turkish Lira from falling. Let's hope he doesn't run out of gas any time soon. I hope so, but looking at the technical picture all he has done this morning is push the rate of the EURTRY back to previous support and back to the mean of the up trend. Selling Gold? How much more Gold will they need to sell to change the trend? And is there any amount of Gold that can change the trend at all. Serious stuff It would be interesting to watch, if it was not for the 80 million Turkish livelihoods that depend on the outcome. This is serious stuff. Best case scenario will be that the trend will turn at the cost of selling some Gold reserves. Worst case scenario is that the trend will continue and that Gold reserves will be depleted. This could lead to massive inflation and poverty. I sincerly hope it doesn't come that far.
by dave25981155
7
EUR/TRY: long trade closed in profit (Demo) as trend at extreme.Hello traders, the readings on RSI and ATR, as well as the angle of the current hyperbolic move, make for difficult incentives for holding a long trade on EUR/TRY: therefore, I closed my trade about 50% through the profit target and made a healthy catch (over 26k). In this video the key points discussed are: - ATR divergence/waning (multi-timeframe analysis); - RSI poss. divergence and also extreme reading (90+) in monthly/weekly; - angle of hyperbolic rise starting to shape toward a vertical, strikingly similar to that of the 2018 move; - extreme oversold reading in the MSCI Turkey ETF iShares and fading sell volume after historic lows warns of Lira-short exhaustion. I also share a news source that is fundamental for Turkish Lira traders - watch the video to the end (no sales, it is a public resource)! Thanks. Stay safe Happy trading Francesco/FreeFX
by Forexistential
EUR/TRY technical and relative strength analysis.In this video I am looking at the relationship between EUR/TRY and the i-shares MSCI Turkey ETF, which allows us to look at volume data as a proxy for momentum in EUR/TRY, specifically addressing the following question: - is the MSCI Turkey ETF selling overdone? - what does the daily and weekly ETF's RSI tell us? - with the index reaching the 2018 lows, is there any more room to sell? The Lira is on an endless devaluation trajectory, but of course there may be room for some correction in the near future before further EUR/TRY (and other Lira pairs) appreciation. Food for thought. Francesco Sani, FreeFX
Long
by Forexistential
EUR/TRY long play, medium-term, using Fib extensions.EUR/TRY is one of the few FX pairs that can truly rival stock-market trending: this (and its parent pair, USD/TRY) has been uptrending almost incessantly for over a decade, something that is quite rare in the fx world - other examples are true outliers such as USD/IRR and USD/ARS, but these are not accessible through your ordinary broker. What I learnt from trading the summer 2018 correction into early 2019 was that this was a short-lived relief move for the Turkish Lira, but the uptrend has since returned with force and seems unstoppable. As I developed the Lira carry trade idea in 2018 and 2019 I managed (on demo) to accrue over £2k of interest by holding short, however I then realised that the pace of upward movement was soon outstripping any profit made by playing the short carry-trade. I stopped trading this pair long-term and only dipped back into it for intra-day trades to the long side, again appreciating that it has near-zero correlation to EUR/USD and is actually truly motivated by Turkish monetary events and speculative positioning of its own making. This means that on a quiet day trading the EUR/USD I could always look over to the EUR/TRY and find opportunities there, short-term, knowing full well that its higher intra-day range is also matched by very poor per-pip value and a very expensive margin requirement tag: all in all. a difficult pair to trade intra-day. This is where I am coming back to it for a slightly longer-term play: this time I am using FIbonacci expansion/extension tools, looking at the monthly line chart from the start of data (2008) up to the hyperbolic peak of summer 2018, then for the retracement down to the bottom of early 2019: the resulting projections give some realistic forecast of price movement into the future. Given that we are constantly breaking new highs, just like stocks or indices have been doing for years, it becomes impossible to use past prices to determine support/resistance zones, thus I am looking into this particular indicator to try gauging on a mathematical basis where we can expect price to reach. My target is actually 10,000 - a strong round-number level by definition - which is about half-way between the two nearest Fib levels, thus a reasonable chance of being filled; the trailing stop is at about 2:! Reward-Risk ratio and the position size is 1M. Let us see how this goes! Time-horizon is variable but I would give it about six weeks, thus until early December or so, to play out. Good luck trading out there. Francesco, FreeFX
Long
by Forexistential
3
EURTRY time to SELL Fundamentally, Turkey is important to stay in NATO , close to EU, supported by Germans, invested heavily in by Europeans and others. Negotiations with Greece will commence (starting in 2 weeks) and after all Turkey has nothing to lose and lot to gain from East Mediterranean Natural gas resources. Take this from a Greek like me, emotions are not good when you trade. Technically, EURTRY looks bearish on the charts too. The 9.00 mark acts as a strong rounded-number resistance level. Peace and prosperity to all and good trding wishes to our friends and followers
Short
by FX_Professor
1
ridethepig | Turkish Lira Strategy🔸 Ceilings and profit taking I am starting to unwind partials in the USDTRY longs with all of these moves so full of energy in the current chapter it wont be long until the retailers and bloomberg crowd are on board. There is lots of thunder and lightening across the global economy, Turkey will catch more than the sniffles but it is prudent we stick to the plan - the same plan since 2018 (yes 2018). In this position, wave 5 was an obvious impulse, because after buyers held support they could then start to promote their positions and adding to winners. The 30% upside once looked miles away and is now shining us right in the face, will sellers dare to come out? Will other sharp speculators riding this for months/quarters want to also take profits? If buyers hold 7.82xx it will trigger the collapsing of local banks, so we make this play with a heavy heart. It would be interesting to investigate further whether we will get the intermediate highs in USDTRY, so lets leave some partials running incase we get capitulation...
by ridethepig
4
The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day MA will continue its upward trendTurkey’s up-and-down relationship with Greece has been causing unwanted tension in the forex market. Even after weeks of conflict between the two countries, it looks like even the announcement that they’re willing to start talks to resolve the issue wouldn’t be enough to ease worries. The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day moving average will continue its upward trend after its surge against the 200-day moving average in early August, and it looks like the tables won’t turn until the countries come up with a definite agreement. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is content with the jumping euro because its president Christine Lagarde postponed her decision on interest rate policies to next week. Moreover, its gross domestic product contracted less than the market expected for the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter. July had seen an 11.8 percent decline, less than the 12.1 percent initially estimated. The notion that the eurozone is improving faster than expected is projected to help the falling lira near-term.
Long
by Financebroker
The European Central Bank is content with the jumping euroTurkey’s up-and-down relationship with Greece has been causing unwanted tension in the forex market. Even after weeks of conflict between the two countries, it looks like even the announcement that they’re willing to start talks to resolve the issue wouldn’t be enough to ease worries. The EUR/TRY pair’s 50-day moving average will continue its upward trend after its surge against the 200-day moving average in early August, and it looks like the tables won’t turn until the countries come up with a definite agreement. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is content with the jumping euro because its president Christine Lagarde postponed her decision on interest rate policies to next week. Moreover, its gross domestic product contracted less than the market expected for the second quarter of 2020 compared to the first quarter. July had seen an 11.8 percent decline, less than the 12.1 percent initially estimated. The notion that the eurozone is improving faster than expected is projected to help the falling lira near-term.
Long
by Financebroker
2
Bearish Divergence on EUR TRYThe CBRT responded to the recent lira weakening by tightening the liquidity conditions in a significant way, although more may need to be done to stabilize the markets. The CBRT first made a press announcement stating that a) liquidity measures introduced to support growth would be phased out; and b) all available instruments would be used to reduce market volatility (suggesting rate hikes could be on the agenda). The Bank then halved the amount of cheap funding (offered at 100bp below the policy rate) to primary dealers. Finally, the Bank did not open the daily 1-week repo auction (with the 8.25% interest rate), forcing banks to borrow from the more costly ON lending facility (with interest rate 9.75%). If the remaining 1-week repos are also not rolled over, then the CBRT’s effective funding rate will increase from 7.50% to 9.75% within a week. Such measures should help to reduce the demand for FX and should slow down the loan growth, mitigating worries over price and financial stability. However, it remains to be seen if they will be enough to restore confidence and to stabilize the markets.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn3984200
Reports for the EU member states’ GDPThe pair failed to break out from a major resistance line, sending the pair lower towards the nearest support line. Most reports for the EU member states’ GDP data will be published today, July 31. Yesterday, the EU’s largest economy already had its GDP results which disappointed investors. Germany’s economy for the second quarter of the fiscal year declined by 10.1%. Expectations for Q2 figures for France, Italy, and Spain’s economic performance were all double-digit declines as well. Spain is expected to suffer the worst decline among the three EU countries who will report today with -16.6%. Meanwhile, France and Italy’s forecast for its second-quarter GDP were -15.3 and -15.0, respectively. Also, the European Union will be posting its bi-monthly report for GDP, and expectations for the figure was at -11.2%. These data will hurt the single currency in the short-term. For the long-term outlook, the European region is expected to recover in Q3 and Q4.
Short
by Financebroker