EUR TRY
The Turkish lira hits its two-year lows against the euroThe Turkish lira hits its two-year lows against the euro and has also crumbled against other currencies. Bearish EURTRY traders have faced levels last seen on the height of the 2018 currency crisis in trading sessions. The main weakness of the lira can be traced to the concerns about the impact of the virus in Turkey. The pandemic has taken a deep chunk out of the Turkish government budget and recent data showed that corporate deals in the country have faltered last month. In just the span of less than two years, the Turkish economy has faced two recession, placing the Turkish lira in a very tough predicament. The pair has a highly bullish tone considering that the 50-day moving average has left the 200-day moving average in the dust. Bullish investors are expected to hold on to the momentum despite the vulnerability of the single currency. Over the past week, news about the virus in Europe has started to show improvements, mainly in Italy and Spain.
EUR/TRY Possible Long OpportunityWe enjoyed selling yesterday, and price eventually closed at last month's high, with a re-test to last month's high. Could this be a re-test for a continuation up? Remember overall we are still in a buy trend and can enjoy short opportunities; however until price breaches trendline it may not be wise to open short positions. Trade with caution and do not get caught in a bear trap.
The Turkish lira is struggling to defend itself against the euroThe Turkish lira is struggling to defend itself against the euro but in recent sessions, its seen slightly rebounding. The reason for the rebound was the recently rolled out stimulus measures to cushion the blow of COVID-19 to the Turkish economy. The number of coronavirus cases in Turkey recently saw a big spike, recording more than 500 new cases just yesterday. The massive surges raise the number of infections to about 2,433 as of writing. While the death toll in Turkey reaches 59. Turkish Health Minister Fahrenttin Koca said that among the 5,000 plus tests that were conducted, it was found that about 561 people were infected by the deadly virus. While in Europe, leaders from the region ditches austerity to help fight the pandemic with full force in terms of cash. A French official said that the countries in Europe are failing to communicate through the response measures, this leaves space for vulnerability for the single currency.
EURTRY - DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - FOREX - EUR TRY EURTRY has seen a very long and very nice up trend. Not long ago we saw some break down in that up trend. As I see it, price action looks to give a 'failure to continue trend' signal as it attempted a short up trend here recently. Red line was the optimal entry, I doubt we will see that level again but we may and in my opinion its still not too late to find a short position. If I were short I would take profits at lines bellow entry with stop at previous high.
Clearly not financial advice.
Bullish breakout for EUR/TRY.Hi traders,
wanted to share with you my chart Analysis. The whole first week of February saw EUR/TRY in a down trend, creating a triangle where at the base we have an area of confluence with the trendline formed in the begining of the year (9th of Jan). Week wise and day wise pair is in a long uptrend.
At the beginning of a Friday session (Europe) we saw tweezers bottom/chopsticks candle pattern (on 30min chart) at the area of confluence giving a clear signal of a change in direction of the trend,eating all the shorts on the way - resulting in catapulting of the price up with a text book example of a bullish breakout.
Perfectly following the description of a bullish breakout out of a triangle, price ascended the same amount as the height of the triangle. Price then pulled back to the broken trendline that became the support.
I closed my longs on top of the chart, and will initiate longs for the following weeks, with a good entry. In my opinion we have a begining of a longer term uptrend.
Thank you for reading.
Lukas
Watch for downside consolidation breakout in EURTRY and USDTRYThere is a potential to trade a downside breakout of the consolidation (lira continues to increase) into wedge/triangle support.
The price target is the rising trendline on both the USD/TRY (near 5.75) and EUR/TRY (just above 6.4). A stop loss goes above the consolidation.
The reward:risk is 1.25:1 to 1.5:1, but over a week or two the rollover would add to the potential profit.
The Turkish lira interest rate is 11.25%. The US rate is 1.75% and the EUR rate is 0%. The short trade picks up the interest rate differential. A long trade pays the interest rate differential. I am not interested in the long, only the short, if it materializes.
EUR/TRY trend turning upwardSuddenly, the Turkish lira is experiencing accelerating weakness. EUR/TRY, for example, has been spinning higher lows and higher highs include this week's fresh breakout. These runs usually continue until some dramatic flourish with the Turkish lira losing a LOT within minutes. I won't be surprised to see a 10%+ move in the coming weeks. Note that those climactic moves are often fadeable.