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Istanbul defended democracy, but Erdogan is still in powerHello dear Turkish Lira traders, merhaba arkadaslar! ;) Istanbul clearly defended democracy on Sunday, giving the counterpart of the AKP, Ekrem Imamoglu, the majority of the votes, even in districts where the AKP had previously a stronghold. Even though Erdogan was not directly up for election, it was a clear message to the government: If you do not count our votes in the election, we will not stand still . The Istanbul mayoral election, which had closed almost 50:50 in the previous election, now went clearly 54 to 46 towards the CHP in the reelection. What does it now mean for the Lira? => While it is clear that the CHP won Istanbul now -and with it almost one third of Turkey's economy- Erdogan is still the man in the land . He controls almost all political institutions, even up to the legislature. While people are on the streets dancing, at the same time the trials against the Gezi Park supporters like Osman Kavala have started. So, it's back to usual, esp. if the the government intervened before the election to hold the Lira stable: We're currently building a nice Double Bottom on the Daily, which needs to see a break above the Pullback High 'neckline' to see a confirmation. If we see a breakout here above 5,9 TRY, we could easily reach 6 and above, which would make the green line of my big time-frame analysis from Friday the most likely scenario: You can check it out if you want, I'll link it under the description. Selamlar, Deniz from Edgy Can you read the chart yourself, or are you still dependent on other people like myself to read it for you? Are you an 'illiterate in charting'? Do you have a trading plan with sheets, or are you trading from your head? Are you already making gains over the long-term, like a casino, or are you losing over the long-term, because you have no idea what your strategy is? => Those are all important questions, where are I can help you with. I wish you a good trading! :) Edgy is providing online mentorship & trading metrics only. We are not a financial advisor, nor do we hold any formal qualifications in this area. You're trading at your own risk. No matter what you do, please set your stop loss. Please be aware, that you can lose all your money on the online exchanges.
Long
by Edgy_
Disaster cooking in Turkey=> For those who believe in the bearish Turkey story, we are in the early stages of a 5th wave which we mentioned in our previous ideas... it can be seen clearly here and shows how the floodgates for the highs are wide open. From a technical perspective the 5th wave target, the first major target is 7.85 (assuming wave 5 is a 1.00 ratio in length of wave 1). Given the nature of this rally so far there is a very large chance this can extend well beyond the initial targets as far as the 2.168 extension above the highs. It is also worth noting for those following EW that the 5th wave usually marks new highs... confidence in this view will increase above the 161.8% so for those wanting a less aggressive entry you can sit tight and watch closely and good luck to those wanting to pull the trigger early for the next few Quarters in 2019. This is going to be a monstrous move and worth tracking for those interested in watching the EM collapse continue.
Long
by ridethepig
15
USDTRY Double bottom, Part 2 In my previous analysis i showed a potential double bottom on the daily chart which has been playing out so far. The ideal entry, when the triangle would break on the low side, didn't happen. It simply broke upwards and continued the rally since. However, this rally has been very slow so far. It's not always bad, but at this point it needs to accelerate a big more. Like it has been doing the past week or so. Bulls need to show they want to attack the neckline of that double bottom (red zone on the left). So ideally we see a good move up this week, into the resistance zone and make a good bull flag there for a few days. If we see that happen, it will become more likely to see a continuation up for the coming few months. Previous analysis:
by botje11
7
I am affraid it is time to short the Turkish LiraThis trade is not part of my usual price action trading strategy. It is longer-term play based on the Ichimokucloud technicals (kumo turning bullish on eurtry and chikou broke past prices), but also the fundamentals. As the new year has come, prices of essential things like energy and water have doubled for my family living in Turkey. Other bills for the new year still need to come in but are expected to show the same increases. This was to be expected as Turkey has financed almost all energy infrastructure with foreign (USD) debt and USD interest rates are rising. It is mathematically impossible to keep energy rates as low as they were, as total national energy revenues hardly covered interest payments on these foreign loans. As energy prices will rise all other prices will have to rise eventually. If Turkey is to remain competitive as an exporter then in the short term (next half year to year) the TRY will need to depreciate. The down-side is that it will make foreign debt even heavier. It is a tough choice, but I think the powers that be rather have higher inflation of which they can control the reporting of the numbers to the people. Inflation will erode purchasing power, but also all the consumer debt Turkish people have taken on in the form of Taksit (paying in installments). The subsequent devaluation of the TRY will keep the economy going keeping nominal growth figures presentable. There will be no actual growth, but this will not be visible immediately to the man in the street. The devaluation of the Turkish Lira can also be explained as a plot by the West to stop Turkey in its growth. Rich Turks move out of cash into hard assets such as land and real estate fulling the bubble even more. Smart Turks will buy Gold and Silver as holding other currencies then the Turkish Lira has already been frowned upon. So, as it turns out the same is happening in Turkey as is happening all over the world. The rich will get richer as they move into real assets, the poor will get poorer as everything gets more expensive. OK, this has been a pretty negative few on the situation. Honestly, I hope it will not play out. For a more positive outlook, I suggest the following reports by the state-owned TRT World news channel: www.youtube.com www.youtube.com I am hopeful for the long-term outlook for Turkey, knowing the resilience of the Turks (something we have lost here in the west i.m.h.o.) and the fact that Turkey and the Turks have always have had an appreciation for and understanding of real Money in the form of Gold and Silver.
Long
by dave25981155
EUR/TRY LONG IDEA. History can and does repeat itself!Refer to my USD/TRY idea linked to this idea. When I trade one pair, I also like to study the market structure of correlating pairs. USD/TRY and EUR/TRY correlating pairs. In my high level analysis we see that both pairs experienced the nicest nice bounce off the 61.8 fib level and would have been a perfect entry point, as we can see price action was swift to the upside. Also, I used the bars tool simulator, taking a snipped from this pair's history to predict future movement. If history repeats itself, could this move be the future of this pair as well as that of USD/TRY since they correlate? Note, price is still respecting the trendline as well with this idea. Now we know that although in Forex history tends to repeat itself, the market is also dynamic. Many factors can impact price action. Be sure to watch the direction of the Turkish Lira. This idea is for demonstration and educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk. This is not a signal. Price could very well not reach these highs.
Long
by mrsceleste