EUR TRY
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Previous forecast at workThe EUR/TRY currency pair breached the falling wedge south. The rate has been trading south and reached the psychological level at 6.25.
Given that the exchange rate is pressured by the 55-, 100– and 200-hour SMAs, the general direction is expected to remain south within the scope of the next week. It is likely that this decline is bounded in a descending channel.
It is the unlikely case that some bullish pressure still prevails in the market, the Euro should not exceed the 200-hour SMA, currently located at 6.4372.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Falling wedge in sightThe European common currency has been appreciating against the Turkish Lira for five weeks. This movement has been bounded in a falling wedge.
As apparent on the chart, the exchange rate is trading near the support cluster formed by the 55-, 100–. 200-hour SMAs and the Fibonacci 38.20% retracement in the 6.9843/7.0499 range. It is expected that the pair will breach given support and trade down to the lower wedge line located circa 6.70.
However, if given support cluster holds, a breakout from the pattern could occur and the pair could jump towards the psychological level at 7.3500/7/4000.
EURTRY/USDTRY: Bottom of the rangeEURTRY (and $USDTRY) look to be at the bottom of the range here, and might end up evolving into a trend opportunity over time.
I'm long risking small but with very good risk/reward since the invalidation for this trade is small (a drop under 6.87).
$USDTRY offers the same setup pretty much but I like the crosspair more, slightly better r/r.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Turkish Central Bank Raises Interest Rates To 24%Hello my dear Turkish lira traders & everyone else who's interested in the ongoing Turkish Lira crisis.
Big news today:
-The Turkish central bank sharply raises interest rates to 24 percent, stating that there was still an upside risk to the inflation outlook from what it called a deterioration in pricing behavior, despite weaker domestic demand conditions. Economists had calculcated only with 22 percent
-Leading to that decision, Erdogan today critized the central bank again for its mismanagement of the crisis, in the end still stating that the central bank is independent
=> That's why, even though mainstream media is writing stuff like: 'Central Bank defies Erdogan', I don't buy this. I don't think the central bank would've done this without 'green light' by Erdogan
-On other news: Erdogan has appointed himself chairman of the country’s sovereign wealth fund and completely changed its board, naming Finance Minister Berat Albayrak as his deputy, the country’s Official Gazette said on Wednesday.
-In a decision announced earlier on Thursday, he ruled that property sales and rental agreements must be made in lira, putting an end to such deals in foreign currencies.
This leads to much room for an equilibrium between the ranges of 6.8 and 5.68. Have fun watching! ;)
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About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
Lira crisis: continues tightening between 5.8 & 7 Dollars +NewsHello my dear Turkish Lira traders & everyone else who is interested in the ongoing Turkish Lira crisis.
As always, we look at the fundamental news first, and second at the technical analysis.
Important fundamentals:
-The Turkish government has ruled that exporters might convert 80% of their foreign exchange revenue into Lira within 180 days
-The central bank has already announced tightening policy coming next week, and thus, has set the bar pretty high (president Erdogan is, at least in front of the camera, against interest rate hikes)
-Potential war in Idlib/Syria: The Turkish society sees Syrian refugees already as a drain on the economy, connecting it to the demise of the Lira. Obviously another attack in Syria, which leeds to another inflush of refugees, could lead to further tentions. Germany's foreign minister is visiting Turkey right now in order for potential help in the attack scenario
Have fun watching! ;)
If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Crypto Analyses + occiasionnally Lira analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss.
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
EUR/TRY 1H Chart: Upside potential apparentThe Euro has been trading in an ascending channel against the Turkish Lira since the beginning of current week.
As apparent on the chart, the Euro has reached the upper boundary of this pattern. In addition, technical indicators are in favour of bullish scenario. These two factors allow to think that a breakout is due in the nearest future.
Traders should look out for the 0.00% Fiboncacci retracement at the 8.103 mark. In case, this mark is not breached, it is likely that the bearish sentiment takes over the pair.
Lira on the way back to 7!Hello my dear Lira traders & interested people! ;)
The lira sell-off continues guys.
Fundamental news which affected the price:
-Moodys downgraded 20 more Turkish banks
-Berat Albayrak, finance minister, doesn't see Turkey in a crisis
-The fall in Peso also intensified the selling, not just in Lira, but also in other emerging market currencies
Have fun watching! ;)
If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss.
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
Economic Warfare? Lira in 4H equilibriumHello my dear Lira traders! :)
Fundamentals: The language between the US & Turkey is getting harsher. National security advisor John Bolton came out and said that Turkey is making a huge mistake by not releasing pastor Brunson. Ibrahim Kalin, spokesperson for president Erdogan, is now speaking of 'economic warfare' against a NATO ally.
Technical Analysis: We're in an equilibrium between the ranges of 6 & 6.2. Should we break higher, we have 6.33 as the upper wick of the previous move to take out first.
Have fun watching! ;)
If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Crypto Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss.
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
LIRA CONSOLIDATION -IMF HELP GETTING DISCUSSEDHello my dear USD/TRY traders, hope you're doing fine guys! ;)
In today's video, we're gonna be looking at the fundamentals, and will analyse the pair in the end. Important was:
-Trump is not backing
-Also the FED is concerned about the rapid collapse of the Lira
-Sigmar Gabrial (former German foreign minister) & Andrea Nahles (current chief of the German Social Democrats) are bringing economic help for Turkey to the table
-Mesale Tolu, German-Turkish journalist, who was released from prison, may leave the country
Have fun watching! ;)
If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Crypto Analyses! I wish you a good trading! :) No matter what you do, please set your stop loss.
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
Lira takes a breather -equilibrium between $7 and $5.8 possibleHello my dear USD/TRY traders, hope you're doing fine guys! :)
Since the last time we spoke, USD/TRY spiraled to 7 Dollars, which is seeing many traders jumping on the train. So obviously a correction here had to come and is very normal. We have retraced back to 5.68 with the wicks -and now we're gonna wait and see, what pattern we get at the top.
Fundamental news that had an effect were:
Qatar pledging help to Turkey
The central bank/government curbing the possbility of banks to lend money tot short sellers from 50% to 25%
Turkey responding with tarrifs to US consumer goods
If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Analyses!
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.
Bullflag > Turkish PresidentHello guys, hope you're doing fantastic! ;)
In this special analysis, we look at the fundamentals of what is going on with the Lira, why it's losing so rapidly in value, and also the big picture on the weekly chart. Have fun watching! ;)
If you had some value from my analysis, make sure to like & follow me so you don't miss it next time, I'm doing Daily Crypto Analyses!
About myself: Global citizen & early Bitcoin adopter from Germany. I invested in the 2nd rally from 50 to 1.000 Dollars in BTC.