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EUR/USD: Defensive Ahead of Eurozone CPI Data"The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on previous positive moves and trades with slight bearish momentum in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the spot price attempts to hold above the key level of 1.0600 and remains contingent on the price dynamics of the US Dollar (USD). The tightening stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) further supports higher US Treasury yields, bolstering the USD's appeal for low-priced buying, thus acting as a resistance for the EUR/USD pair. This, coupled with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may not raise rates further, contributes to limiting the spot price. This sentiment was reaffirmed by data showing Germany's consumer inflation slowed down from 4.3% YoY to 3.0% in October, marking the lowest level since August 2021. This decline comes amid looming economic recession risks, indicating the end of the ECB's rate hike cycle. In contrast, markets are evaluating the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates once again in 2023. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance given the challenging US economic recovery and persisting inflation. Thus, the focus will remain on the outcomes of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting. The US central bank will announce its decision on Wednesday, and many anticipate it will maintain the status quo in its second consecutive meeting. Meanwhile, market participants will seek signals about the Fed's future rate hike path, impacting the USD's price dynamics and creating new momentum for the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, Tuesday's release of Eurozone flash CPI data will be scrutinized for short-term opportunities ahead of the US macroeconomic data - Chicago PMI and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index."
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0550 Ahead of German GDP, CPI DataEUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0550 on Monday morning in Europe. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial inflation and GDP data from Germany. Political tensions remain a cause for concern. EUR/USD might face strong resistance around 1.0570-1.0580, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest downward trend, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 200-day SMA converge. If the pair rises above this area and stabilizes there, the next price targets could be 1.0640 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 50%). On the downside, temporary support lies at 1.0530 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0450 (recent low point). EUR/USD rose to 1.0600 at the end of last week but lost momentum and closed almost unchanged on Friday. Early Monday, the pair moved within a tight channel around 1.0550. Short-term technical prospects indicate a lack of directional momentum. Buyers might hesitate to bet on a stable Euro recovery unless the pair breaks the 1.0570-1.0580 barrier. Markets expect Germany's economy to contract by 0.7% annually in the third quarter. Later in the day, Germany's Destatis will release October inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise by 3.6%, down from the 4.3% increase recorded in September. Worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone and increasing signs of slowing inflation have allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its key interest rates. Unless German CPI inflation unexpectedly surges in October, the market is unlikely to reconsider the ECB's interest rate outlook. In an interview with Croatia's state television HRT1 over the weekend, ECB policy maker Boris Vujčić stated, "We have completed the process of raising interest rates." In the latter half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar does not feature any high-impact releases. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 0.7%. The opening gains on Wall Street could potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar, but investors may limit large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Nears 1.0500 Amid ECB Focus"In Asian trading on Thursday, EUR/USD remains defensive, hovering around 1.0560, the lowest in a week, as traders await the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. The currency pair continues its decline for the second consecutive day, extending its retreat from monthly highs. Support was found around the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0560. Daily chart technical indicators paint a mixed picture, with momentum hovering around the midpoint but trending downwards, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) showing a positive slope but also turning south. The pair is currently testing support around 1.0560. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators indicate a bearish trend. The primary support is the upward trendline around 1.0550. As long as the price stays above that level, the Euro's recovery potential remains intact. However, breaking below could incur additional losses, initially targeting 1.0530 and then 1.0500. To shift the technical outlook to bullish, the Euro needs to rise above 1.0610.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Holds Recovery Below 1.0700 Ahead of Eurozone and US PMIEUR/USD continues its recovery but remains below the 1.0700 level early on Tuesday. The pair benefits from the decline in US Treasury yields and the weakness of the US dollar. Positive changes in risk sentiment support the new upward trend. Keep an eye on EU/US PMI data. The EUR/USD exchange rate accelerated its gains on Monday, surpassing the 1.0640 level. It continues to move further away from the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), trending upwards. The daily chart indicates further potential for an increase, with significant resistance at the 55-day SMA around 1.0710. On the 4-hour chart, the pair has broken a significant downtrend line, significantly improving the outlook for the Euro and indicating further potential for price increase. Although the price is still above 1.0595, there is a possibility of more significant gains. Below that level, support appears around 1.0550, represented by the upward trend line from the October lows. Conversely, above 1.0670, the next targets are 1.0695, followed by 1.0710 and 1.0760. Short-term technical indicators suggest further upward movement; however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently above 70, indicating potential consolidation before another price increase. The EUR/USD exchange rate surged on Monday due to the weaker US dollar. The pair broke the downtrend line and rose to 1.0676, the highest level in a month. The outlook for the Euro remains favorable in the Asian trading session, although some consolidation might occur after a 100-pip increase. The sharp decline of the US dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair on Monday. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield initially rose above 5.00% but quickly reversed, dropping sharply to 4.84%. This sharp decline pushed the US dollar index down to 105.51, the lowest level of the day since September 22. Stocks on Wall Street showed mixed reactions as the drop in yields somewhat improved market sentiment. Volatility continues to dominate the bond market ahead of significant issuances. On Tuesday, Eurozone and US PMI data are expected to be released. There is a slight improvement in Eurozone consensus and a slight decrease in the US. The European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting on Thursday, along with important US economic indicators such as GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Steady Amid Dollar WeaknessEUR/USD maintains a higher level but remains below 1.0600 in Wednesday's Asian trading. Risk sentiment prevails, weighing on the US Dollar, especially amid positive data from China. Market focus is on Lagarde's speech and EU/US data. The EUR/USD rate has risen above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which still slopes downward. The Momentum indicator is above 100, signaling positivity for the Euro, though the overall trend remains bearish. On the 4-hour chart, the price is well-supported and above key SMAs, with technical indicators indicating an uptrend. The current resistance level is around 1.0600, and a breach could draw attention to 1.0630. Closing above this level daily would pave the way for further gains. Conversely, dropping below 1.0540 could weaken the Euro, pushing it towards 1.0500. EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, defying positive US data and higher Treasury yields. The pair reached a high of 1.0595 before retracing. ZEW's survey shows positive signs in the region, with the Eurozone's economic sentiment index improving to 2.3 from -8.9 in October, beating market expectations. Germany's ZEW also recovered from -11.4 to -1.1, surpassing the market's consensus of -9. Next week, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to hold its monetary policy meeting, expected to keep rates unchanged for the first time since June 2022. On Tuesday, optimistic US economic data included Retail Sales (up 0.7% in September, compared to the expected 0.3%) and Industrial Production (0.3% vs. 0%). The US Dollar briefly gained from this data but quickly lost momentum. EUR/USD dropped to 1.0540 but then reversed its uptrend. Both US and European bond yields surged, with the US 10-year yield rising to 4.86% from 2.60%, and Germany's equivalent yield increased from 3.40% to 2.88%. Bond markets continued to experience significant fluctuations. If Eurozone rates follow Treasury yields, the impact might be offset, as seen on Tuesday. However, robust US data could limit EUR/USD's upward potential. On Wednesday, Housing Permits, Building Permits, and the Beige Book by the Fed are due. Stay tuned for updates on this dynamic market scenario.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EURUSD and future cooperation predictionsAccording to Politico sources, the deal would impose tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum. The agreement creates a "club of like-minded economies" and aims to impose tariffs on imports from economies deemed to provide subsidies to key sectors such as steel and clean technology. It is said that The US and EU are still negotiating plans to create this "global club" as a solution to transatlantic disputes over aluminum and steel. These tensions date back to the era of former US President Donald Trump. In 2018, Trump imposed high tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from around the world, including the European Union, for national security reasons. According to the EU proposal, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen seeks to get closer to the US to overcome the dispute, with the aim of presenting a united transatlantic front against China. ing. Kwok.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
ECB's Next Move in Inflation Fight: Managing Excess Liquidity Frankfurt, Reuters - In the ongoing fight against inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are gearing up for a significant shift in strategy. They are set to deliberate on ways to address the vast pool of excess liquidity inundating banks, with the possibility of raising reserve requirements emerging as the initial tactic. This pivotal discussion is expected to kick off at the ECB's forthcoming meeting in Athens on October 26 or during an autumn retreat for policymakers. Despite the ECB having already raised interest rates ten times to record levels, inflation still stubbornly hovers above its 2% target. With interest rates likely to remain unchanged until December, policymakers are pivoting their attention to the massive infusion of funds into the banking system through a decade of bond purchases. This surplus liquidity undermines the effectiveness of rate hikes, reduces competition for deposits, and leads to substantial interest payments and potential losses for some central banks. Sources indicate that the debate on curbing excess liquidity will focus on three key areas: revising the mandatory reserves banks maintain at the ECB, unwinding the bond-buying programs, and establishing a new framework for influencing short-term interest rates. While an ECB spokesperson declined to comment, insiders suggest that several policymakers favor increasing the reserve requirement from the current 1% of customer deposits to potentially as high as 3% or 4%. This move would serve the dual purpose of absorbing excess cash from the banking system and reducing interest payouts by the ECB and the eurozone's national central banks. However, some policymakers advocate bundling the decision on reserves with discussions regarding the ECB's asset purchase schemes and interest-rate framework, which could lengthen the decision-making process. Shrinking the 4.8 trillion euro debt pile acquired by the ECB since 2015, mainly to counter deflation risks, poses even greater challenges and market sensitivities. While phasing out the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by not replacing maturing bonds is an option, policymakers are cautious about upsetting financial markets, particularly Italian government bond investors. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently indicated that bond-buying schemes were not on the table at the latest policy meeting, emphasizing the importance of PEPP for policy transmission. While there have been suggestions to sell bonds acquired under the older Asset Purchase Programme, some argue this would result in even larger losses for the ECB. Sources suggest that a decision on bond-buying schemes might not materialize this year and, if it does, may not take effect until early 2024 or later in the spring. Furthermore, debates surrounding the policy framework—whether the ECB should continue to set an interbank rate floor or revert to a corridor system—are expected to extend into 2024, as the volume of excess reserves in banks keeps the ECB effectively locked into a floor system. A study presented at the ECB's summer symposium in Sintra suggested that, now that monetary stimulus is no longer necessary, the ECB could reduce bank liquidity to a range of 521 billion euros to 1.4 trillion euros while still meeting banks' reserve needs." This revised text provides a more engaging and concise summary of the original content, making it more attractive to readers.
by Ayame_Hana
53
EURUSD 1D Hello, everyone! I suggest analyzing three potential scenarios for the development of events on the #EURUSD pair using the higher timeframe. 1 (marked in black on the chart) - Currently, we are in the imbalance zone of the 1D timeframe. Potentially, the price may clear the imbalance and continue moving downwards, possibly making new lows. 2 (marked in red on the chart) - Based on confirmed order flow, we might see the price in the 1.08 zone for liquidity removal, with the potential for a downward move, similar to previous instances marked in red. 3 (marked in green on the chart) - This scenario could become valid if the price reaches and consolidates above the 1.08 level. In this case, the previous order flow would act as continuous liquidity. Have a great day, everyone!
by yes_pls_max
EURTRY LongTechnical Analysis Trend Bullish Weekly Long Daily Long 10H Long 4H Long 2 H Long 30min. LONG Gold Bullish Strategy Bullish My Trading Conditions and my Rules(This are the Rules I follow,and they are no financial adivice for others) Trade Consditions Higher Highs Higher Lows Trade Rules: Taking only Buy Signals Trade Rule 2: Only Buy Signals Trade Rule 3: Exit only, if a Pullback my Stops hit. Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%). Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly NZX Trades Slightly Higher New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low Argentina Indicators Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23 Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23 Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23 Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23 Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23 Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23 Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23 Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22 Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22 The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
1
EURTRY BULLISH Rises further after Turkish inflation dataTurkish lira fell to new marginally lower record low in early Wednesday, as Turkish June inflation data sparked fresh weakness of the currency. Monthly inflation rose by 3.9% in June, below 4.8% consensus and annualized figure was also below expectations (38.2% in June vs 39.4% f/c), while consumer prices were slightly below previous month’s figure (June PPI 40.4% vs May 40.7%). Inflation remains elevated, though significantly below last October’s 85.5%, the highest in over two decades. Turkish lira fell sharply in June (down over 20% vs US dollar, the biggest monthly fall on a record), following re-election of President Erdogan and despite CBRT’s new leadership and turn towards more orthodox approach to monetary policy, as the central bank already raised interest rates after a cycle of cutting rates last year. Trend Bullish
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
1
EURTRY bULLISHStrategy Bullish Higher Highs Higher Lows Retracement (18%) Price above Quartely VWAP Price above Decade VWAP Volatility Bullish Maket Sentiment 92% Bullish Yearly Trend Bullish Quartely Trend Bullish Monthly Bullish Daily Bullish 4H Bullish 2H Bullish 1H Bullish 30 min. Bullish Portfolio Strategy: Volatility/Risk(Per Trade) Position Sizing Risk Management 2: Trailing Stop (Donchian/Turtle Trader)/N(Volatility(Per Day) or (Quarter)*(risk per Trade) William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, also noted that shocks from the El Nino weather pattern could prompt inflation in central and south American regions to cool more slowly than previously expected. "Latin American central banks are unlikely to look through food price shocks given how strong headline inflation and wage growth in the region still are. So, upside inflation surprises could postpone the upcoming monetary easing cycles, or make them more gradual." The Mexican peso slipped 0.4% and was set to snap a four-day winning streak, after touching its highest level since early December 2015 on Wednesday. The MSCI gauge for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) gained 1.3%, led by a 1.4% advance in Brazil's Bovespa IBOV . Foreigners funneled over $22 billion net into emerging market portfolios in June, the largest amount since January, according to data from the Institute of International Finance. A Guatemalan court ordered the suspension of anti-graft presidential candidate Bernardo Arevalo's political party, threatening his place in a run-off vote and prompting U.S. warnings of a challenge to democracy. Elsewhere, the International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved an immediate $189 million disbursement to Zambia following its first review of a $1.3 billion loan programme. Latam FX hits 10-year high on weak dollar as US inflation slows The index for Latin American currencies touched a 10-year high on Wednesday, led by Brazil's real, as the dollar dwindled after a U.S. inflation reading indicated just one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year. The MSCI index for Latam currencies (.MILA00000CUS) jumped 1.6%, hitting its highest level since April 2013. Most currencies hit multi-year highs against a weakening dollar after June U.S. consumer prices rose at their smallest annual pace in over two years. Although talks of rate cuts have intensified in Latam of late, bets on the U.S. rate-hiking cycle coming to an end will likely lead to a favorable interest rates differential. The Mexican peso USDMXN jumped 1%, breaking below the psychological barrier of 17 pesos per dollar, touching an eight year high. Higher crude oil prices also boosted the Mexican peso and top exporter Colombia's peso USDCOP by 0.8%. Copper prices hit 2-1/2-week highs, boosting currencies of main exporters. Chile's peso USDCLP added 0.7% and Peru's sol USDPEN rose 1.3%, to its highest level since November 2020. Peru's central bank is set to decide on policy rates on Thursday. Chile's Finance Minister Mario Marcel said the government now expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 0.2% in 2023, revising its forecast down from a previous estimate of 0.3%. The Brazilian real (BRBY) USDBRL gained 0.8%, touching a one-week high. The rapporteur for Brazil's tax reform bill in the Senate, Eduardo Braga, on Tuesday said that he expects the proposal to be voted on in October in the House. Data showed Brazil's services activity grew by much more than expected in May, paring some losses seen in April despite high interest rates. "Progress on the structural reform agenda and the (Brazil) government decision to maintain the CPI target at 3% have cleared the way for rate cuts; we expect a 50bps cut on August 2," said Lawrence Brainard, chief EM economist at TS Lombard. Meanwhile, Argentine polling firms warned of difficulties accurately predicting the upcoming presidential primaries' results due to low turnout and the emergence of surprise candidates, leaving the October election also uncertain. The MSCI index for Latam stocks (.MILA00000PUS) jumped 2.5%, touching a one-week high, led by a 1.4% advance Brazil's Bovespa IBOV . World's largest meat packer JBS SA JBSS3 jumped 9% after proposing a New York listing. Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a $3 billion, nine-month bailout programme for Pakistan. YEN Oil AUD NZD Asian stocks fall on bad chinese data China Industrial Output Growth Beats Estimates The Chinese economy advanced 6.3% yoy in Q2 of 2023, faster than a 4.5% growth in Q1 but missing market estimates of 7.3%. The latest figures were distorted by a low base of comparison last year when Shanghai and other big cities were in strict lockdown. During H1, the economy grew by 5.5%. China has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for this year after the economy expanded by 3% in 2022 and missed the government's target of about 5.5%. Beijing has shown reluctance to launch greater stimulus, especially as local government debt has soared. In June alone, indicators showed a mixed picture: retail sales rose the least in 5 months, industrial output growth grew for the 14th month, and the urban jobless rate was unchanged at 5.2% but youth unemployment hit a new high of 21.3%. Data released earlier showed shipments from China fell the most in three years, as high inflation in key markets and geopolitics hit foreign demand. A Politburo meeting is expected later this month. Asian Stocks Fall on Weak Chinese Data Asian equity markets fell on Monday as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. The Shanghai Composite led the decline, losing more than 1%. The Shenzhen Component, S&P/ASX 200 and Kospi indexes also tumbled. Meanwhile, Japanese markets are closed for a holiday, while Hong Kong markets will likely be closed for the day due to a typhoon. China Stocks Drop on Weak GDP Data The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to around 3,200 while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.8% to 10,990 on Monday, giving back gains from last week as investors reacted to key data showing China’s economy grew 6.3% in the second quarter, lower than the 7.3% expansion expected by analysts. Meanwhile, China’s industrial production and fixed asset investments increased more than anticipated, while retail sales missed forecasts. Mainland stocks gained last week amid hopes that a faltering post-pandemic recovery would prompt Beijing to offer more pro-growth policy measures. Commodity-linked and financial stocks led the decline, with notable losses from Yunnan Lincang (-3.5%), Zijin Mining (-1.5%), China Shenhua Energy (-4.5%), ICBC (-6%), Ping An Insurance (-1%) and China Merchants Bank (-1.1%).
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
EURARS Long The perfect Bullish Trend45 degress; Andre Kostolany called this conditions as the perfect healthy trend that will continue longer than expected! strategy bullish trend no profit taking The trade is over ,if the trend conditions change Argentina’s experience after the collapse of the peso ten years ago supports the view that Greece, and perhaps other peripheral economies, would ultimately be better off leaving the euro-zone rather than struggling on with the current mix of austerity, bail-outs and debt restructuring. Summary Peronism, a populist movement established by President Juan Peron in the 1940s, remains the dominant political ideology in Argentina, but several parties with varying philosophies now vie for power. Despite its economic might, Argentina has often struggled to meet its international financial obligations, defaulting on its sovereign debt nine times. Argentina has maintained a close partnership with the United States since the Obama administration, but its relations with the rest of South America have been strained over China’s growing influence in the region. Argentina is considered one of the most stable democracies in Latin America, but the government faces several enduring challenges, including endemic corruption and low levels of public trust. In 2020, Argentina ranked 78 out of 180 countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, tying with states including China and Kuwait. What is the state of Argentina’s economy? Argentina is the third-largest economy in Latin America, behind Brazil and Mexico. Its major industries include automobiles, textiles, mining, technology, agriculture, and tourism. Additionally, analysts say there is significant economic potential in the development of renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, and related resources, such as lithium. Argentina has historically shifted between pro-business and populist administrations, which have taken a more heavy-handed role in the economy and increased social spending. Before taking office, Fernandez promised to reverse the austerity measures enacted under Macri. His administration has since increased taxes on exports and high-income households, lowered interest rates, and raised the minimum wage. However, while year-on-year unemployment has fallen recently, the country still has one of the highest inflation rates in the world, and four in ten Argentines live below the national poverty line. Argentina’s top trading partners are the United States, Brazil, and China. The United States is also Argentina’s largest foreign investor, with more than three hundred U.S. companies operating there. In addition, Argentina is a member of several regional trade groups, including the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the Latin American Integration Association, and it is currently a prospective member for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a bloc of the world’s most advanced economies. What are Argentina’s major economic challenges? Argentina’s climate for business and investment has worsened in recent years, weakening due to political dysfunction, price and capital controls, high inflation, debt concerns, and the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2020, foreign investment dropped to $4.1 billion, down 38 percent from the previous year, and several international companies announced they were downsizing or leaving Argentina amid the country’s ongoing recession. The overall economy has shrunk each year since 2018. Argentina was one of the ten wealthiest countries per capita in the early twentieth century. However, economists say that its overreliance on commodity exports and unsustainable government spending fueled frequent boom-bust cycles, resulting in political instability and economic decline in the decades that followed. Successive administrations have struggled to keep the country’s finances in check during periods of economic turmoil. As a result, Argentina has often failed to pay its international creditors; it has defaulted on its sovereign debt nine times over the last two centuries, one of the most frequent in the world to do so. The largest default occurred in December 2001, when the government reneged on nearly $93 billion in loans, causing Argentina to lose access to international debt markets. To restore its ability to borrow, Macri cut export taxes, lifted currency controls, and negotiated a debt settlement with holdout creditors in 2016. While these actions were successful, Argentina lost access again following the country’s default in May 2020. As of December 2020, Argentina’s total national debt was $336 billion, or nearly 90 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Of that, the government owes $45 billion to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and $2.4 billion to the Paris Club, an informal group of private creditors.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
1
EURTRY BULLISHTurkish lira fell to new marginally lower record low in early Wednesday, as Turkish June inflation data sparked fresh weakness of the currency. Monthly inflation rose by 3.9% in June, below 4.8% consensus and annualized figure was also below expectations (38.2% in June vs 39.4% f/c), while consumer prices were slightly below previous month’s figure (June PPI 40.4% vs May 40.7%). Inflation remains elevated, though significantly below last October’s 85.5%, the highest in over two decades.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
2
EURTRY LongTechnical Analysis Trend Bullish Weekly Long Daily Long 10H Long 4H Long 2 H Long 30min. LONG Gold Bullish Strategy Bullish My Trading Conditions and my Rules(This are the Rules I follow,and they are no financial adivice for others) Trade Consditions Higher Highs Higher Lows Trade Rules: Taking only Buy Signals Trade Rule 2: Only Buy Signals Trade Rule 3: Exit only, if a Pullback my Stops hit. Japanese Shares Rise as US Inflation Eases The Nikkei 225 Index jumped 0.8% to above 32,200 while the broader Topix Index gained 0.3% to 2,228 on Thursday, rising from one-month lows and tracking a rally on Wall Street overnight as cooler-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes that the Federal Reserve is closer to the end of its tightening cycle. Investors also bought back technology stocks following days of consolidation, with notable gains from SoftBank Group (1.9%), Advantest (1.4%), Socionext (2.8%), Tokyo Electron (0.6%), Z Holdings (2.8%) and Renesas Electronics (2.5%). Other index heavyweights also advanced, including Sony Group (4.5%), Fast Retailing (1%), Daiichi Sankyo (4.5%), Mitsui & Co (1%) and Eisai Co (1.6%). Australia Inflation Expectations Stable inJuly NZX Trades Slightly Higher New Zealand Factory Activity Shrinks to 7-Month Low Argentina Indicators Industrial Production 1.1 1.8 percent May/23 Industrial Production Mom 1.2 3.2 percent Apr/23 Capacity Utilization 68.9 67.3 percent Apr/23 Changes in Inventories -20633 20148 ARS Million Mar/23 Car Production 53282 54399 Units May/23 Car Registrations 38.6 33.8 Thousand May/23 Leading Economic Index -0.48 -0.28 percent May/23 Corruption Index 38 38 Points Dec/22 Corruption Rank 94 96 Dec/22 The Turkish lira extended losses to new all-time lows of 26.2 per USD, amid increasing signs of a shift to a more orthodox approach and as the central bank reportedly stopped using its reserves to support the currency. On June 22nd, the central bank of Turkey raised interest rates by 650 bps to 15%, marking a reversal from its previous ultra-loose and unorthodox monetary policy although the move fell short of meeting market expectations for a higher rate of 21%. Few days later, policymakers loosened measures designed to boost the lira, including lowering the securities maintenance ratio to 5% from 10% and the threshold for the share of lira deposits to 57% from 60%.
Long
by DaveBrascoFX
One time Hell 🔥 - Two times Paradise 🏝️💼Hello Traders, I'd like to take a moment to discuss a rather peculiar scenario unfolding in the world of Forex, centered on the Turkish Lira (TRY). It's a tale of two paradises – a seeming conundrum where what seems like a hardship for one can be a fortune for another. 🔥 Hell for Turkish people: Firstly, let's understand the current state of Turkey's economy. With ongoing economic uncertainty under President Erdogan, it's a trying time for the Turkish population. The economic policies, coupled with steep inflation rates and the devaluation of the Turkish Lira, are causing a significant amount of strife for locals. In other words, it's a tough environment for the average Turkish citizen - a kind of 'economic hell', if you will. 💼 Paradise for Forex Brokers On the flip side, the very turmoil that's causing despair for the Turkish people is creating a unique set of opportunities for Forex brokers. The Lira's volatility is attracting an increasing number of traders, drawn by the promise of high risk, high reward scenarios. Yet, the Forex market is a fickle beast, and as we see the Lira begin to trade sideways, the profits expected by these traders could be replaced by hefty commission fees, effectively creating a 'broker paradise' of sorts. Not for traders..for brokers! 🏝️ Paradise for Erdogan's Tourist season The second 'paradise' situation can be found in Turkey's tourism industry. Despite the economic challenges, or rather because of them, Turkey will see a surge in foreign tourists. The weakened Lira makes it an affordable destination for many, boosting the local tourism sector. Cheap currency, while problematic domestically, can be a tourist's paradise, offering them more bang for their buck. Especially for Russians, who currently are treated as 'blocked' citizens for European countries. Erdogan must be very happy with a cheap Lira this summer. he will make his moves towards the end of the summer, trust me on this one. 🛑 Don't trade TRY this period So what does this mean for us as traders? It serves as a reminder that markets are multifaceted and that the factors influencing them are interwoven in complex ways. Although the TRY might be attractive due to its high volatility, remember that trading in such conditions can be risky. In the short term, we might see the TRY continue to trade sideways, meaning that the cost of trading might outweigh the benefits. I am already out of my TRY Trades for this reason. Remember, trading is about understanding the dynamics of the market and adapting your strategies accordingly. Stay safe, stay informed, and trade wisely. Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Mine is to sit out this summer and go Long on Turkish lira after the tourist season. 👑President Erdogan, you might just be a Forex genius - although I can't say for sure. It still does not look healthy at all 🔥 Good luck and happy trading! the FXPROFESSOR
by FX_Professor
Türk lirası (USDTRY)- Textbook Entries 🏛️📑Given that I am Long on EURUSD this period i prefer to trade EURTRY instead of USDTRY: Check my post here for targets: Thoughts: Some governments (not the people) prefer their currency cheap, it helps with exports. People choose their government. In this case Erdogan has been re-elected. A cheaper Turkish lira supports the plan of what I will dare to call  'Islamo-China-ization': Cheap currency helps bring tourism and business but does not help the Turks study abroad or buy from abroad.  China for example likes their currency cheap. Erdogan focuses on producing and selling (from goods to guns) instead of importing and at the same time turns the country into a 'claustrophobic anti-Western entity' to achieve so. Off course himself and his bankers are only growing stronger assisting Russians with sanctions and keeping 'one leg in NATO and the other in the East'. Creating an 'enemy or 2 or 3 or 50' helps the cause. Talking about Ottoman empire, Islam and 'kismet' also helps the 'Supreme Leader's' purpose.... but this sounds more like Iran and North Korea than a 'democratic modern nation'. Are people happy in those countries/regimes? These can be dangerous days for the Turkish Lira and the Turkish people. Will the IMF need to step in? Will it want to step in? Will Erdogan accept it? Or will Qatar, the Russians or anyone else (?) run to the rescue for their own interest? Could that be the BRICS? (in any case, there is no such thing as free money) All these questions will remain un-answered until we know the answer. For the time being TRY keeps weakening against the USD and EUR. 26,5 TRY to a EUR is a possibility here. By the way, my last post was a PERFECT entry and it was the third in a row: When a country goes into economic problems and it's leader is a revisionist there lies a danger of war. Ukraine is a battlefield nearby where East and West are 're-shaping borders'. The worst case scenario here would be for Turkey to end up picking a 'camp' and entering a fight, which historically has happened many times in similar situations. (Look at the last 2 links below....) “Old men make war, young men fight and die.” — Winston Churchill I can only wish Turkish people peace and prosperity and may Erdogan find a balance between reality and economy. Young people with 'warm blood' should not waste it for 'dangerous political ambitions' but instead should have access to education, opportunities, jobs and prosperous future. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR Links: Economic unorthodoxy and culture wars : www.theguardian.com The West: www.bbc.com Brics: watcher.guru Russia and Turkey have a Long history of being friends and then fighting: www.reuters.com Turkey and Greece tensions ease: greekcitytimes.com EURTRY PERFECT ENTRIES: www.tradingview.com
Long
by FX_Professor
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