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Eurtryforecast

EUR/TRY Back To SupportHuge sell off on the EUR this past week, I was looking at this as a chance to long back up to resistance as it is oversold but looking at the bigger picture I think it is best to hold off at the moment. The situation is very bearish and there will certainly be swing trading opportunities here but the trend is going down and longing anything here seems like a big risk not worth taking. Looking at monthly and weekly timeframes you see this is retracing back to the previous peak from August 2018, if it reaches this point that would be the perfect time to be longing this. Although it may not go as far as this, we are now at 0.618 Fibonacci and as this is currently oversold it could reject this area and level off before rising again back towards the all time high. With this in mind it makes sense to hold off a trade on this pair and some other EUR pairs until the situation unfolds. Once it does it could open up some very profitable opportunities.
by olly48
EURTRY setting up nicely for a leg upOne of my favourite pairs this weekend. So much confluence for an upside leg. Let's break it down. 1) Price printed a doji on the last trading day. That is a somewhat sign of reversal. 2) Price printed the doji at a strong area of support . We can see how many times the price has jumped from this area in the past (green circles) 3) Price printed the doji at a strong area of support and right at the 200MA. Now, this is a strong sign for a reversal. Price is supported by horizontal support and the 200MA. 4) Price printed the doji at a strong area of support, right at the 200MA and right at the ascending trendline (red trendline) dating from beginning of this year. This is extremely strong 5) Double bottom. The price of the pair is rejecting the same area it rejected on 5th of July. 6) RSI divergence. We see that the price made a low on 5th of June and 5th of July but the RSI didnt go lower, instead it stayed neutral. On this new low the RSI has actually won strength. Another sign of reversal. Not everything is perfect though: 1) Price is capped by a descending trendline (blue trendline) that has been respected since May. A break of this trendline will totally confirm the leg up. 2) Price is capped by 50MA before it could reach the horizontal resistance. So we will use 50MA as PT1 as it could send the price lower again. Lets look at the 4H chart to get a trading plan : We clearly see the double bottom and the same RSI divergence than on D chart (purple lines). The Price Action is not very clean but we can make 2 different plans. - Plan A: Blue arrows -> Price recovers to the descending trendline where it will also hit the MA50, retraces a bit before continuing higher. - Plan B: Red arrows -> Price breaks the descending trendline and keeps going higher until hitting the 4H resistance area that will also be the 200MA. Price could retrace back to the trendline, it will be also the MA50, before continuing higher. I will wait to see how the pair wakes up on Monday morning but if not much of a change I will buy straight away and exit the trade if a 4H candle breaks and closes below the support and lows of 5th of June. If I am missing anything let me know in the comments!
Long
by MicKi
4
EURTRY - Bearish Swing Due? - What goes up must come down?EURTRY has been clearing up-trending for over a decade. The upside momentum has been significantly stronger in recent years, as seen by the more aggressive trend support lines. How long will the upside continue? Is price finally reaching a high? The main reason for me wanting to open a long-term short on EURTRY is the positive swap rate. I personally believe that these is no other currency pair (offered by retail Forex brokers) that has such an opportunity - an extremely high short swap rate with possible strong downside. A few things to consider... Price is looking over-extended . Recent bullish moves have been euphoric. The swing in January 2017 was almost vertical. From past experience, this generally means that a correction is due, and usually a major correction. Bearish pin bars and inside-bars. The current bullish swing is struggling to form a higher high. 31/07 saw a clear bearish pin bar close. This has been followed by an inside-bar with a bearish break-out. If price continues to remain quiet this week, this weeks candle may close another inside-bar. Possible signal of a shift in momentum? There is a lot of support. If price does start heading South, it may find a lot of support (unless EURTRY plummets). Dynamic support, trend support and horizontal levels have been identified on the chart. The only positive from all this support is that if the EURTRY closes below these support areas, they may then act as resistance, possibly helping price to move lower. Brexit. Yes, that word that frustrates the British (and perhaps the Europeans?). Who knows what this will bring to the EUR and GBP in coming months. A weakening Euro is a possibility but your guess is as good as mine. If the position is stopped-out, I will look for the next opportunity to short the pair. I believe this pair offers potential trades that should not be missed.
Short
by love-the-pips_SamMorton
Back To SupportI'm back with the EURTRY to do a add-to-position. If you have followed me on the EURTRY, it's an idea to consider an increase of position. Just a moment ago, disappointing quarterly jobless average (dec) figures came out of Turkey. With the EU going somewhat stronger, I trust this one over the next week to continue upwards. Be aware that EU is in a strange place after several EU countries is banning Turkey. Also with Holland having election today, and soon France and eventually Germany. In that light, I have a fairly large SL on EURTRY. Don't necessarily do the same, unless you are comfortable with it.
Long
by chastic