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Eurtrytradeplan

EUR/TRY Back To SupportHuge sell off on the EUR this past week, I was looking at this as a chance to long back up to resistance as it is oversold but looking at the bigger picture I think it is best to hold off at the moment. The situation is very bearish and there will certainly be swing trading opportunities here but the trend is going down and longing anything here seems like a big risk not worth taking. Looking at monthly and weekly timeframes you see this is retracing back to the previous peak from August 2018, if it reaches this point that would be the perfect time to be longing this. Although it may not go as far as this, we are now at 0.618 Fibonacci and as this is currently oversold it could reject this area and level off before rising again back towards the all time high. With this in mind it makes sense to hold off a trade on this pair and some other EUR pairs until the situation unfolds. Once it does it could open up some very profitable opportunities.
by olly48
EURTRY setting up nicely for a leg upOne of my favourite pairs this weekend. So much confluence for an upside leg. Let's break it down. 1) Price printed a doji on the last trading day. That is a somewhat sign of reversal. 2) Price printed the doji at a strong area of support . We can see how many times the price has jumped from this area in the past (green circles) 3) Price printed the doji at a strong area of support and right at the 200MA. Now, this is a strong sign for a reversal. Price is supported by horizontal support and the 200MA. 4) Price printed the doji at a strong area of support, right at the 200MA and right at the ascending trendline (red trendline) dating from beginning of this year. This is extremely strong 5) Double bottom. The price of the pair is rejecting the same area it rejected on 5th of July. 6) RSI divergence. We see that the price made a low on 5th of June and 5th of July but the RSI didnt go lower, instead it stayed neutral. On this new low the RSI has actually won strength. Another sign of reversal. Not everything is perfect though: 1) Price is capped by a descending trendline (blue trendline) that has been respected since May. A break of this trendline will totally confirm the leg up. 2) Price is capped by 50MA before it could reach the horizontal resistance. So we will use 50MA as PT1 as it could send the price lower again. Lets look at the 4H chart to get a trading plan : We clearly see the double bottom and the same RSI divergence than on D chart (purple lines). The Price Action is not very clean but we can make 2 different plans. - Plan A: Blue arrows -> Price recovers to the descending trendline where it will also hit the MA50, retraces a bit before continuing higher. - Plan B: Red arrows -> Price breaks the descending trendline and keeps going higher until hitting the 4H resistance area that will also be the 200MA. Price could retrace back to the trendline, it will be also the MA50, before continuing higher. I will wait to see how the pair wakes up on Monday morning but if not much of a change I will buy straight away and exit the trade if a 4H candle breaks and closes below the support and lows of 5th of June. If I am missing anything let me know in the comments!
Long
by MicKi
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