MY EURUSD SHORT IDEA 01/11/2024Direction: Short
SL: 1.0849
Checklist:
- MA 20 going downward
- Break of Trendline
- Fib level
- Bounce from a Support/Resistance
- Penetrate a Support/Resistance
- Edgefinder Score
- Correlation Confluence
- Trading Central Preference
Technical:
1. MA 20 Yellow is falling to MA 100 and 200 (Purple and Red).
2. Red Trendline was broken recently.
3. Price bounced off from a Resistance zone.
4. No FIB level found.
5. Tradingcentral tool signaling DECLINE on Time frames 15m,1h,and 4h but it is bullish and signaling RISE on daily time frame at the moment.
6. Q4 seasonality is bullish actually but with a short term bearish.
Fundamental and economic:
1. I use Edgefinder tool which shows me a score of -1 "Neutral Bearish".
2. We have US elections coming up and regardless of which president wins it’s going to be bullish for USD.
3. US NFP came out horrible 12k but market wants a revision and is in a speculative state.
4. EUR / DE10Y is falling.
5. USD is on the rise after a recovery.
6. VIX spiked a little.
EURUSD-2
EURUSD Short term buy inside a Channel Up.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up.
The price has falled by -0.55%, same amount as the October 25th-28th pull back.
That was a short term buy opportunity that targeted the 0.786 Fibonacci.
The MA200 (1h) is supporting just below.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.08750 (Fibonacci 0.786 level).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is about to turn oversold. That has been the most effective buy signal on the last 3 lows (October 29th, 28th and 23rd).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
XAUUSD IS BACK !With a little more drawdown today and the beginning of next week, XAUUSD has showed everyone what it was capable of the past few days by reaching such high levels ;
It has to bounce on the double uptrend green limit, then go up and wait a little for the 5th of november ;
on this day markets will go nuts for every asset, so it seems like gold might be going for a big rally to the 2780/90s
BTC POSSIBLE NEXT MOVE !With some delay on the time BTC finally decided to come down, it eventually did what we thought, came back to lower KL ;
but with the previous days' big spike up and down, it is now a perfect time for the price to "de-correct" and come back to the 75Ks, before coming back down ;
for now and the newt few weeks, it seems really tough to break 78/79K, probably next year.
US100 TOWARDS THE SKYWe missed the entry yesterday thinking it would bounce way harder than that, it actually took several hours to get back in an uptrend position ;
for now it seems a little corection to the LL is coming after the 15:30 rush ;
after that, US100 is going to the roof and taking the uptrend direction back.
HelenP. I Euro will make small correction and continue move upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics.A few days ago price entered to consolidation, where it at once reached the top part and then dropped to the 1.1040 level, which coincided with the bottom part of the flat with the resistance zone. Then EUR tried to grow, but failed and fell to the resistance zone, after which turned around and in a short time backed up to range. Later price rose to the top part of the consolidation again, where then it reached the trend line and then started to decline. Euro exited from consolidation, breaking the 1.1040 level, and continued to decline. In a short time later, the price fell to the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Soon, the price broke this level and some time traded between, after which rebounded up, breaking the 1.0810 level with the trend line. To this day, the price continues to grow, so, I expect that EURUSD will make the small correction and then continue to grow next. So, that's why I set my goal at 1.0975 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.08480
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSD: Will Keep Falling! Here is Why:
It is essential that we apply multitimeframe technical analysis and there is no better example of why that is the case than the current EURUSD chart which, if analyzed properly, clearly points in the downward direction.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
EUR/USD shows potential (READ DESCRIPTION)Pivot Point: 1.0860
EUR/USD shows potential for an upward move, with projected gains of 27 - 42 pips, supported by a pivot level at 1.0860.
Our Preference: Long Positions
Consider long positions above 1.0860 with the following target levels:
Primary Target: 1.0900 — this level may serve as the first resistance, where some consolidation or minor retracement could occur.
Secondary Target: 1.0915 — if this level is reached, it may indicate stronger bullish momentum, potentially supporting further advances.
Alternative Scenario: Downside Potential
If EUR/USD dips below 1.0860, consider a move lower with targets:
First Target: 1.0845 — an intermediate support level that could act as a buffer for downward momentum.
Second Target: 1.0830 — a more substantial support level that may result in either a consolidation or a sustained bearish push if breached.
Technical Indicators & Analysis
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI indicates consolidation but remains above its neutrality area at 50, suggesting moderate upward momentum.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD may be nearing or above its signal line, reinforcing a slight bullish trend; however, a potential cross below could indicate a return to consolidation or slight bearish pressure.
Moving Averages: EUR/USD is positioned above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, signaling a short-term bullish trend with support for the upside move.
Key Levels & Price Action Outlook
Above 1.0860: A sustained move above this level can support gains toward 1.0900 initially. Consolidation may occur at this level, but continued strength would open up 1.0915, which is a more substantial resistance level and an extended target for long positions.
Below 1.0860: Dropping below this pivot could lead to further declines. 1.0845 may serve as an initial support, and a break here could lead to a test of 1.0830. This deeper level may offer stronger support and could signal either a bottoming for a potential rebound or a continuation of bearish movement.
Pre NFP Trade Analysis1st November
DXY: Stronger NFP, DXY bounce off 103.80 to trade up to 104.60. If 103.80 broken, could trade down to 103.45
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5925 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6545 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 40 TP 120 (DXY Strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0905 SL 25 TP 100 Hesitation at 1.0950 (DXY Weakness)
USDJPY: Sell 151.40 SL 40 TP 200 Hesitation at 150.55 (DXY Weakness)
USDCHF: Buy 0.8710 SL 20 TP 40 (DXY Strength)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3915 SL 15 TP 30 (DXY Weakness)
Gold: Needs to stay below 2760, break 2740 could trade down to 2708
Euro at the bottom of the channelOn the daily time frame, EURUSD reached the bottom of its ascending channel and we saw a temporary positive reaction from it. This reaction point, in addition to being the bottom of the ascending channel, was also an important order block in my daily time frame, which caused the price reaction. The medium-term target is the middle line of the channel.
EURUSD increased sharply: Target 1,095?Hello everyone!
EURUSD is witnessing an impressive increase after a long decline, this pair of money has been stable around the threshold of 1,087 and has not shown signs of stopping.
Looking at the time frames, the strong growth trend of EURUSD brings clear optimism. However, the current pair of money is under the resistance level immediately at 1,088. The passing of this level will lead to an increase in price while maintaining this level will lead to decreasing prices.
With the current situation, it is likely that the 1,0857 milestone may be tested to check the reaction with EMA 34 and 89 lines before the market offers a more definitive direction.
The upcoming goal? 1,090 and further than 1,095.
I wish you a lot of luck and profit!
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.0838, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit will be at 1.0905, a pullback resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0770, which is a multi-swing low support level.
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#EURUSD - 1 NovSmall range choppy day for EURUSD yesterday; it moved higher, hit the first resistance, sold back down to PZ then rallied to close near the highs. Overall, EURUSD is in a resistance zone and IMO, I am cautiously bearish for a move lower before any upside is possible.
EURUSD is much bearish on the monthly (even more than indices) and overall, any bearish daily candle would indicate a potential near term top for further downside. For today, looking at 1.0898 is the level to look for shorts while 1.0812/20 would be levels to look for longs.
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0896
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0952
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0840
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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$EUIRYY -Europe's Inflation Rate (October/2024)ECONOMICS:EUINTR 2%
(October/2024)
+0.3%
source: EUROSTAT
-Annual inflation in the Euro Area accelerated to 2% in October 2024, up from 1.7% in September which was the lowest level since April 2021, and slightly above forecasts of 1.9%, according to preliminary estimates.
This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates.
Inflation has now reached the European Central Bank’s target.
In October, energy cost fell at a slower pace (-4.6% vs -6.1%) and prices rose faster for food, alcohol and tobacco (2.9% vs 2.4%) and non-energy industrial goods (0.5% vs 0.4%).
On the other hand, services inflation steadied at 3.9%.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation rate which excludes prices for energy, food, alcohol and tobacco was unchanged at 2.7%, the lowest since February 2022 but above forecasts of 2.6%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.1% fall in September.
Renewed demand for the Euro | FX ResearchMost of what we've been seeing in recent sessions has been Euro-supportive. Economic data out of the zone has been on the better side of expectations.
Inflation data is pointing up, and ECB speak has been decidedly less dovish.
Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde has said she doesn't expect a Euro area recession in the months ahead.
Otherwise, the yen has been a little better bid today, perhaps after the BOJ signaled it would be prepared to hike rates more if its outlook was met.
Overall, there have been signs of mild U.S. dollar selling, though it’s not enough to be fully convincing, especially with U.S. equity futures pointing south. Month-end flows will also play into things as the day winds down.
There has also been talk of mild U.S. dollar demand on portfolio rebalancing.
All of this comes ahead of today's round of U.S. data and some major event risk in the days ahead, including tomorrow's U.S. jobs report and next week’s U.S. election. As for the remainder of today, we have Canada GDP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, U.S. core PCE, and U.S. initial jobless claims.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger