Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.11613.Colleagues, the price is in the correction of wave “2”. I believe that the upward five-wave impulse is not yet complete. In any case, I think that the price will still reach the maximum of wave “1” at 1.11613.
The question is how far will the correction of wave “2” go or is it over? There is no way to know for sure, so I don't recommend selling. I think we should stick to long positions.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
EURUSD-2
GBP/USD at a Crossroads: Imminent Breakout or Bull Trap?The weekly chart of GBP/USD shows a strong recovery following the late-April correction, which brought the price down to a key demand zone between 1.2550 and 1.2600. The bounce was sharp and decisive, but the pair is now facing resistance between 1.3000 and 1.3150 — a previously sold area marked by a visible supply block in red.
The current weekly candle reflects a bullish reaction, but the overall structure suggests a potential exhaustion zone for upward momentum. Price action reveals a series of lower highs in the short term, and while the RSI is bouncing, it remains far from overbought, hinting that this move may be just a technical rebound.
From a trading perspective, a confirmed weakness around the 1.3000–1.3150 zone could offer short opportunities with an initial target near 1.2700 and, if extended, down to 1.2550 — a key dynamic support area. On the flip side, a clean breakout above 1.3150 with strong volume and a weekly close would open the door for a new bullish leg toward 1.3300–1.3400.
Conclusion: GBP/USD is currently at a critical juncture. The next directional move will depend on how price reacts to this resistance zone: a confirmed rejection could trigger renewed selling pressure, while a confirmed breakout may reignite the bullish trend.
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EUR/USD?
EUR/USD has broken above the resistance zone and is currently trading above the breakout level.
A pullback to the broken level is expected before the next bullish move.
Once the pullback is complete, we anticipate a continuation of the uptrend toward the specified target. Holding above the broken resistance would reinforce the bullish outlook.
Will EUR/USD maintain momentum after the pullback? Share your views below!
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EURUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is approaching our sell entry at 1.1327, aligning with the 161.8% Fibo extension and 2005 Fibo projection.
Our take profit will be at 1.1143, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1477, a pullback resistance.
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FX Liquidity 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Shock. Long EUR/USD?Liquidity Seizes Up: Dealers Report Conditions 'Worse Than Covid' Amid Tariff Turmoil
The intricate plumbing of the global foreign exchange market, typically the world's deepest and most liquid financial arena, experienced a severe blockage in recent days, with dealers reporting liquidity conditions even more challenging than during the peak of the Covid-19 crisis in early 2020. Triggered by the sudden announcement of potential sweeping tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, the ability to execute large trades without significantly moving prices evaporated, creating treacherous conditions for market participants before a temporary pause on the tariff implementation offered a brief respite.
Reports indicate that available liquidity for a single transaction, or "clip," in major currency pairs plummeted to lows around $20 million. While this figure might still sound substantial, it represents a dramatic reduction from the norms in the multi-trillion dollar-a-day spot FX market, where clips of $50 million, $100 million, or even more could typically be absorbed with minimal market impact, especially in benchmark pairs like EUR/USD.
This liquidity drought occurred paradoxically alongside a spike in overall trading volumes. Both algorithmic trading systems and human traders on principal desks were highly active, reacting to the news flow and heightened volatility. However, this surge in activity masked a fundamental deterioration in market quality. High volume accompanied by low liquidity signifies frantic, often smaller, trades occurring across widening bid-ask spreads, with market makers unwilling or unable to provide firm quotes for substantial sizes. It's the market equivalent of a crowded room where everyone is shouting, but no one is willing to make a firm commitment.
Why 'Worse Than Covid'? Unpacking Dealer Sentiment
The comparison to the Covid-19 crisis is stark and revealing. The initial wave of the pandemic in March 2020 caused unprecedented volatility across all asset classes as the world grappled with lockdowns and economic shutdowns. FX liquidity certainly suffered then, with spreads widening dramatically. However, dealers suggest the current environment, driven by tariff uncertainty, felt different, and arguably worse, for several reasons:
1. Nature of the Shock: Covid-19, while devastating, was primarily a health crisis with economic consequences. Central banks globally responded with massive, coordinated liquidity injections and policy easing, providing a clear backstop (even if the initial shock was severe). The tariff announcement, however, represents a political and policy shock. Its potential impact is multifaceted – affecting inflation, growth, supply chains, corporate earnings, and international relations – and far harder to model. The policy path forward, including potential retaliation from other countries, is deeply uncertain.
2. Central Bank Reaction Function: During Covid, the playbook for central banks was relatively clear: provide liquidity and ease financial conditions. In response to potential tariffs, the central bank reaction is much less certain. Tariffs could be inflationary (raising import costs), potentially pushing central banks towards tighter policy, while simultaneously being negative for growth, which might argue for easing. This ambiguity makes it harder for markets to price in a predictable policy response, adding another layer of uncertainty that dampens risk appetite and liquidity provision.
3. Fundamental Uncertainty vs. Panic: While Covid induced panic, the underlying driver was identifiable. The tariff threat introduces deep uncertainty about the fundamental rules of global trade. This makes it exceptionally difficult for market makers, who provide liquidity, to price risk accurately. When risk becomes unquantifiable, the natural reaction is to withdraw, reduce quote sizes, and widen spreads significantly to avoid being caught on the wrong side of a large, unhedged position.
The Tariff Trigger: A Wrench in the Works
Donald Trump's proposal for a "reciprocal" or blanket tariff system, potentially starting at 10% on all imports with higher rates for specific countries, fundamentally challenges the existing global trade framework. The announcement immediately forced market participants to reassess:
• Inflation Outlook: Tariffs directly increase the cost of imported goods, potentially fueling inflation and impacting interest rate expectations.
• Economic Growth: Trade wars can disrupt supply chains, raise business costs, reduce export competitiveness (due to retaliation), and dampen consumer and business confidence, weighing on growth.
• Currency Valuations: Currencies of countries heavily reliant on exports to the US, or those potentially facing steep retaliatory tariffs, came under pressure. The US dollar itself experienced volatility as markets weighed the inflationary impact against the potential growth slowdown and risk-aversion flows.
This complex interplay of factors, combined with the political uncertainty surrounding the implementation and potential scope of such policies, created a perfect storm for volatility. Algorithmic systems, programmed based on historical correlations and data, struggled to navigate a potential regime shift driven by policy pronouncements. Human traders, facing heightened risk and uncertainty, became more cautious. Liquidity providers, facing the risk of being adversely selected (i.e., only trading when the market is about to move sharply against them), drastically reduced their exposure.
The Impact: Beyond the Trading Desks
The evaporation of liquidity has real-world consequences:
• Increased Transaction Costs: Corporates needing to hedge currency exposure for international trade face higher costs (wider spreads).
• Execution Risk: Asset managers rebalancing global portfolios find it harder and more expensive to execute large trades, potentially suffering significant slippage (the difference between the expected execution price and the actual price).
• Systemic Risk: In highly leveraged markets, poor liquidity can exacerbate sell-offs. Margin calls, as reportedly seen alongside the tariff news, can force leveraged players to liquidate positions rapidly into an illiquid market, potentially triggering a domino effect.
The temporary pause in the tariff implementation announced subsequently provided some relief, likely allowing liquidity to recover partially from the extreme lows. However, the underlying uncertainty hasn't disappeared. Until there is greater clarity on the future direction of US trade policy, the FX market is likely to remain susceptible to bouts of nervousness and reduced liquidity.
Should You Long EUR/USD Based on This? A Cautious No.
While the liquidity situation is dire and reflects significant market stress, using poor FX liquidity itself as a primary reason to take a directional view, such as longing EUR/USD, is generally flawed logic.
Here's why:
1. Liquidity is Not Direction: Market liquidity reflects the ease and cost of transacting, not necessarily the fundamental direction of an asset price. Poor liquidity is a symptom of high volatility, uncertainty, and risk aversion. While these factors can influence currency direction (e.g., risk aversion often benefits perceived safe-haven currencies), the liquidity state itself isn't the driver. Both buyers and sellers face the same poor liquidity.
2. Universal Impact: The reported liquidity crunch affected the global spot FX market. While specific pairs might have been hit harder at times, the underlying issue was broad-based risk aversion and dealer pullback, impacting EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, and others. It doesn't inherently favor the Euro over the Dollar.
3. Focus on Fundamentals and Sentiment: A decision to long EUR/USD should be based on a broader analysis of:
o Relative Monetary Policy: Expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) versus the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
o Economic Outlook: Growth prospects in the Eurozone versus the United States.
o Risk Sentiment: Is the broader market mood risk-on (often favoring EUR) or risk-off (which can sometimes favor USD, though the tariff news complicated this)?
o Tariff Impact Analysis: How would the proposed tariffs, if implemented, differentially impact the Eurozone and US economies? Would potential EU retaliation harm the US more, or vice-versa?
4. Increased Trading Risk: Poor liquidity makes any trade riskier and more expensive. Spreads are wider, meaning entry and exit costs are higher. Slippage on stop-loss orders or take-profit orders is more likely. Executing large sizes is challenging. Therefore, even if you have a strong fundamental view to long EUR/USD, the current liquidity environment makes executing and managing that trade significantly more difficult and costly.
Conclusion
The recent seizure in FX liquidity, reportedly surpassing the severity seen during the Covid crisis onset, underscores the market's extreme sensitivity to geopolitical and policy uncertainty. The threat of sweeping tariffs injected a level of unpredictability that forced liquidity providers to retreat, even amidst high trading volumes. While the temporary pause offers breathing room, the fragility remains. For traders, this environment demands heightened caution, smaller position sizes, and wider stop-losses. Critically, basing directional trades like longing EUR/USD solely on the state of market liquidity is misguided. Such decisions must stem from a thorough analysis of economic fundamentals, policy outlooks, and risk sentiment, while acknowledging that poor liquidity significantly raises the cost and risk of executing any strategy.
EUR-USD Swing Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD grew nicely
Today but will soon hit
A horizontal resistance
Level of 1.1279 so after
The retest we will be
Expecting a local bearish
Correction and a move down
Sell!
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EURUSD POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPPotential Trade Setup on EURUSD
EURUSD is on a strong 3-week rally correction that was almost got rejected on Friday due to the UK and US GDP data that came pretty strong and weak respectively.
That said, I am still quite anticipating for a possible correction to continue towards the 50% fib level at 1.0650, before we can start looking for a possible buy entry in the long term.
Trading Plan:
1. BUY if the resistance gets broken and retest successfully.
2. SELL if the current region acts as resistance for rejection towards the downside with an engulfing called on the 4H chart.
Targets:
1. Can be 1:2 for either entries.
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) indicates an Overbought but easing gradually towards the 50 level.
Please like, follow, and comment!!
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Trade Responsibly!
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Don't Let It Slip Away: Dragon Signal Active on EUR/USDHi traders! Analyzing EUR/USD on the 1H timeframe, spotting a potential Dragon pattern with long opportunity:
🔹 Entry: 1.0956
🔹 TP: 1.11367
🔹 SL: 1.07787
Price action has formed a classic Dragon pattern — two symmetrical legs and a clear head, with the neckline (the hump) being retested as support. Currently, the pair is testing the neckline zone just above the 200 EMA. RSI is mid-range and curving up, showing early signs of bullish momentum.
If the neckline holds, we may see a strong bullish wave toward 1.1136. This pattern often leads to explosive upside moves once confirmed.
⚠️ DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice. Every trader must evaluate their own risk and strategy.
EUR/USD Clears Resistance, Eyes 1.1200 RetestThe euro jumped +1.66% on the day, decisively clearing the key 1.0940 resistance level with a powerful bullish candle that now opens the door to a retest of the August 2024 high near 1.1200.
🔹 MACD remains in bullish territory, reaffirming upward momentum
🔹 RSI is climbing near 69, approaching overbought but not flashing reversal yet
🔹 Price now trades well above the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, both rising
Momentum is clearly in the bulls' favor. As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.0940, pullbacks may be seen as buying opportunities ahead of a potential break toward 1.1200.
Trend shift confirmed. Bulls back in charge.
-MW
XAU/USD: Ready for another Fall? (READ THE CAPTION)By examining the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that yesterday the price once again moved exactly as expected, hitting all four targets: $3022, $3016, $3010, and $3000, and even dropped further to $2956, resulting in a total return of over 700 pips!
Currently, gold is trading around $3003, and if the price stabilizes below $3014, we can expect further downside.
All key demand and supply zones are marked on the chart and are fully tradable.
If the drop continues, the next bearish targets will be $2997, $2991, $2984, and $2976, respectively.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Euro may continue to move up inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. We can see how the pair spent a long time inside a wide range, repeatedly testing the buyer zone between 1.0365 - 1.0400 points. After multiple rebounds and false breakouts, Euro finally broke through the resistance and started forming a strong upward channel. The bullish structure was further confirmed when the price respected the support line of the channel and created a new higher low near 1.0885, which now acts as the current support level. This level also coincides with the bottom of the seller zone, which was recently flipped into support. Price reacted with a sharp impulse up, breaking the consolidation range and confirming continued bullish pressure. Now Euro is approaching the middle of the channel and gaining strength again. I expect the pair to make a slight pull-back to the support area, followed by a continuation of the upward trend toward TP1 - 1.1250 points, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel. As long as EUR remains above 1.0885 points and respects the bullish structure, I’m looking for another leg higher. The chart structure supports the bullish case, and the upward momentum is clearly in play. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 1.10999 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 1.10273.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Expecting Bearish Continuation! Here is Why:
Balance of buyers and sellers on the EURUSD pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the sellers, therefore is it only natural that we go short on the pair.
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EURUSD Will Go Down From Resistance! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 1.104.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 1.091 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Euro Steady as EU Retaliates on TariffsThe euro hovered around 1.0980 on Thursday, supported by rising trade tensions and renewed political stability in the Eurozone. Sentiment favored the currency after China raised tariffs on all U.S. goods to 84% from 34%, retaliating against Washington’s hike to 104% on Chinese imports. The European Commission also approved retaliatory tariffs on €21 billion worth of U.S. goods, including soybeans, motorcycles, and orange juice. The escalation pushed investors away from typical safe havens like the dollar and Treasuries. Political stability in Germany further supported the euro, as the CDU/CSU and SPD finalized a coalition, clearing the way for Friedrich Merz to become Chancellor next month. The ECB is also expected to cut rates by 25 basis points later this month.
Key resistance is at 1.1020, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1150. Support lies at 1.0880, then 1.0810 and 1.0730.
EURUSD LIVE TRADE EDUCATIONAL BREAK DOWNEUR/USD holds gains below 1.1000 ahead of US CPI release
EUR/USD is tirmimng gains while below 1.1000 in the European session on Thursday. The Euro gains on the German coalition deal and Trump's 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs. Meanwhile, the US Dollar finds demand on profit-booknig ahead of the US CPI data release.
WHY GBPUSD BULLISH ?/ DETAILED ANALYSISGBPUSD has successfully completed a textbook retest of a major demand zone around 1.2650–1.2700, and we’re now seeing signs of bullish strength returning to the pair. After a corrective move from recent highs, price respected this zone with high precision, forming a strong bullish rejection candle that signals a potential reversal. With the market pushing back above 1.2850, we now have a clean higher low structure forming, indicating the next bullish leg is likely in play.
Technically, the 12H chart structure aligns well with a bullish continuation model. Price broke structure to the upside, came back to retest the neckline of the previous impulse leg, and is now bouncing with solid momentum. This is a classic demand zone reaction paired with a clean V-recovery pattern. As long as GBPUSD holds above 1.2700, I am targeting the 1.3400–1.3460 region in the coming weeks. The risk-reward setup here is highly favorable, with clearly defined invalidation below 1.2650 and upside potential aligned with macro sentiment.
On the fundamental side, GBP remains supported by persistent wage growth and sticky inflation in the UK economy, leading the market to price in fewer near-term rate cuts from the Bank of England. Meanwhile, the US dollar has started to show cracks as softer inflation data and slower NFP numbers last week are reducing expectations for further Fed tightening. This divergence in policy outlook between the BoE and the Fed is fueling GBPUSD upside, especially as the pair trades around key psychological levels.
Overall, with a strong confluence of technical bounce from demand, bullish fundamentals, and market sentiment shifting toward risk-on, GBPUSD looks well-positioned for further upside. A break and hold above 1.2900 will likely accelerate the move toward 1.3460. I'll be watching closely for momentum continuation setups as the pair builds bullish pressure in this zone.
BTC/USD more sells incoming? 66k?!Good morning traders, I’m back again with another beauty guys!! I’m sure everyone is asking what’s happening in the markets recently, well Trump(era) is happening.
Back to the charts, here I have a 1 hour TF, yesterday we saw very big moves in price following the news that the tariffs are on hold, but that doesn’t or shouldn’t take always our market sentiments and our biases we had coming into this new week.
This setup is basically a continuation set up but for now I’m only focusing on the relative equal lows because we understand that’s there is sell stops resting below those lows. For the rest of the day we can expect price to deliver lower price for the rest of the week but my question is this…can price drop to the 66k level?
Good luck traders and remember we study price and time not technical analysis!
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as a pullback support.
Pivot: 1.1024
1st Support: 1.0939
1st Resistance: 1.1089
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