EURUSD: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding above a key level of 1.13750 So a bullish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next high. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
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EURUSD-2
Bitcoin Analysis Anticipated Bullish Rebound Toward $95,000! This 15-minute Bitcoin (BTC/USD) recent price action around key support and resistance zones. After a sharp dip to the lower green support area (~$92,500), the price is showing signs of a bullish reversal. The forecasted trajectory (highlighted in yellow) anticipates a corrective move before resuming an upward climb toward the $95,000 resistance target. Previous consolidation phases and a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern are also noted, suggesting a technical recovery is underway. Traders are watching for confirmation of this bullish setup.
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.1425, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.1145,a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1574, which is a swing high resistance level.
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EurUsd- Pay attention to 1.1310Recap:
As discussed in last week's update, EURUSD bulls started losing momentum, and a correction became likely.
Current situation:
• The move from 1.1400 to 1.1577 appears to have been a blow-off top.
• Price is now stuck in the middle of the range, showing signs of weakness.
Key level to watch:
• 1.1310 is critical support.
• A confirmed break below could open the path toward the 1.1100 area.
Trading plan:
➡️ I am closely monitoring the 1.1310 zone for a potential breakdown and continuation lower.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
EURUSD: NFP and Jobs data are comingThe previous week was the relatively calmer one, when it comes to economic news. The S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April reached the level of 51,2 slightly above market expectation of 51. At the same time, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for April was standing at 50,7, above market consensus of 49,1. The US new home sales were higher by 7,4% in March on a monthly basis, and was significantly above forecast of 0,2%. At the same time, existing home sales dropped by -5,9% in March for the month, which was higher from expected -3%.The Durable goods orders in March were higher by 9,2% for the month, again significantly higher from expected 2%. The week-end brought the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April figures, at the level of 52,2, which was a bit higher from expected 50,8. Consumer inflation expectations show strong uptrend, at the final April level of 6,5%, higher from previously expected 5%. At the same time, there has been an increase in five-year inflation expectations at the level of 4,4%, again higher from the previous post of 4,1%.
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April in Germany was standing at 48, modestly above market consensus of 47,6. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at the level of 48,7 and in line with market expectations. The Balance of Trade in the Euro Zone reached euro 24B in April which was highly above the forecasted euro 15,1B. The Ifo Business Climate in April in Germany reached the level of 86,9, and was surprisingly higher from expected 85,5.
At the start of the week, markets were testing the long term resistance line at 1,1460. The highest weekly level reached on Monday was 1,1540. Soon, the market reverted back, so for the rest of the week, 1,1315 was the minimum level. The currency pair ended the week at 1,1364. The RSI modestly moved from the overbought market side, toward the level of 62, not showing the clear sign that it is ready for a clear reversal. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, after the lines made the so-called golden cross a week ago.
Volatility will continue also in a week ahead. Some of the currently most important data for the US economy will be posted - Jobs data for March will be released on Tuesday, and the Non-farm payrolls and Unemployment rate in April, on Friday. This is promising another challenging end of the week for trading. As per current charts, the markets will continue to test the 1,1460 resistance level, which is a historically significant level. Accounting for trades from the previous week, the sentiment of the market holds the upside. Still, depending on the data which will be released, the market could turn toward the down-side in the week ahead, which would lead the eurusd toward the 1,12 support line. In case of a negative news, there is also some probability for the 1,15 to be tested again. At this moment, the 1,1460 resistance should be closely watched in terms of a technical analysis, because in case of its clear breach toward the upside, it will open a clear road for eurusd toward the 1,22 in the future period, as the next significant resistance level.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for May, Retail Sales in Germany in March, Unemployment rate in Germany in March, GDP Growth rate flash for Q1 in Germany and in the EuroZone, Inflation rate in Germany and in the Euro Zone in April,
USD: Jobs data for March on Tuesday, April 29th, GDP Growth rate for Q1 preliminary data, PCE Price Index for March, Personal Income and Personal Spending in March will be posted on Wednesday, April 30th, ISM Manufacturing PMI in April, Non-farm Payrolls in April and Unemployment rate in April will be posted on Friday, May 2nd.
DeGRAM | EURUSD Under the Upper Limit of the Range📊 Technical Analysis
EURUSD formed a bearish takeover and returned under the trend line.
Trading below $1.1405 leaves the potential to reach $1.12.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
Germany cut its 2025 growth outlook to near-zero as tariff uncertainty bites.
✨ Summary
Weak eurozone data and Trump's tariffs imposition provide a technical basis for a fall towards $1.12.
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BTC - FVG + Golden Pocket Confluence = Short SetupA strategic high-timeframe imbalance meeting Fibonacci retracement, setting up a potential bearish reaction.
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1. FVG + Golden Pocket — High-Value Supply Zone
The red shaded area defines a significant confluence:
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): Left behind by an aggressive drop, representing inefficiency where price is likely to react.
- Golden Pocket (0.618–0.65): High-probability Fibonacci retracement level, often acting as a magnet for liquidity before continuation.
This zone is primed to act as strong supply if price retraces into it.
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2. 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci Retracement — Prime Rejection Zone
This Fib pocket offers:
- A technical level where aggressive buyers previously failed to hold ground.
- A common area where institutional players offload positions, triggering sell-offs.
A reaction inside this range aligns with broader bearish continuation expectations.
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3. FVG Rebalance — Liquidity Collection
As price fills the inefficiency:
- It completes the rebalancing process, removing the incentive for further upward movement.
- Typically, liquidity grabs inside the FVG precede a sharp move back toward lower liquidity zones.
This supports the short bias post-rebalancing.
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4. Expected Price Behavior — Liquidity Trap Mechanics
The projected move mirrors classical smart money behavior:
- Step 1: Induce late buyers into the FVG + Golden Pocket area.
- Step 2: Trigger a quick rejection after liquidity collection.
- Step 3: Resume downward pressure as imbalance is resolved.
The entire flow is designed to punish inefficient entries and reward patience.
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5. Market Context Alignment
- FVG and Golden Pocket together strengthen the case for a precise, controlled rejection.
- Emphasis on liquidity-driven movements keeps the focus sharp on execution and timing.
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6. Summary:
- FVG + Golden Pocket = Strong Supply Confluence
- High-Probability Short Setup Based on Rebalancing and Liquidity Collection
- Structured, Smart Money-Driven Price Behavior Expected
Tactically clean setup following liquidity engineering and imbalance theories.
Skeptic | EUR/USD 4H Range Breakout: Key Long & Short TriggersEUR/USD on the 4-hour timeframe is currently trapped in a consolidation box, where a breakout above the ceiling or below the floor could provide excellent trading opportunities. I’m Skeptic , and in this analysis, we’ll dive into EUR/USD across multiple timeframes to identify key long and short triggers. Stick with me until the end for a complete breakdown! 🚀
Daily Timeframe: Uptrend Context 🟢
On the daily chart, EUR/USD remains within an uptrend channel , maintaining a bullish major trend. Recently, after hitting the channel’s upper resistance, the pair corrected toward the midline, a critical support zone within the channel. However, the reaction at the midline lacked strong bullish momentum, leading to a 4-hour range consolidation . This could signal the end of the correction, potentially setting the stage for a continuation of the downmove toward the lower channel boundary.
4-Hour Timeframe: Range Dynamics 🔍
On the 4H chart, EUR/USD is oscillating between 1.13904 (resistance) and 1.13153 (support) . A key observation: after the initial bounce from the 1.13153 support to 1.13904, subsequent tests of this support failed to push back to 1.13904. This indicates waning buyer strength at the 1.13153 support, increasing the likelihood of a breakout below. Additionally, while bullish candles in this range are larger, we’re seeing smaller, frequent green candles, suggesting buyer exhaustion within the box.
For traders eyeing a short setup , this weakening support at 1.13153 offers a compelling opportunity. You can take on slightly higher risk by placing a sell-stop order below 1.13153 instead of waiting for a confirmed breakout candle (this is my personal approach). A short trigger would be validated by a break below 1.13153, with RSI entering oversold as a strong confirmation. Short targets: 1.12692, with a potential extension to 1.12006.
For a long setup , a breakout above 1.13904 could signal a resumption of bullish momentum, targeting the upper channel boundary on the daily chart. Wait for a confirmed breakout before entering long to avoid false signals.
DXY Correlation: Additional Confirmation 📈
Let’s also consider the US Dollar Index (DXY). After a recent rally, DXY has entered a time-based correction, visible as a pullback to a descending yellow trendline. A break below DXY’s support at 99.195 would reinforce our EUR/USD long setup, while a breakout above the trendline and 99.876 would strengthen our EUR/USD short setup. Both scenarios offer sharp price movements with attractive risk-to-reward (R/R) ratios, making these triggers highly actionable.
Final Thoughts 🙌
Thanks for joining me in this detailed EUR/USD analysis! I’m Skeptic, and I share daily forex and crypto insights. If you found this useful, please follow for more content! 🔥
EURUSD: Local Bearish Bias! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.13761 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EUR/USD W Closure Very Bearish , Best 2 Places For Sell Cleared Here is my opinion on EUR/USD , If we checked weekly time frame , we will see that we have a great bearish price action , and on lower time frames we have avery good bearish price action also , so i think we can sell this pair from the places i mentioned with small sl , and target will be from 100 to 250 pips .
EURUSD below its 4H MA50 signals more selling.The EURUSD pair broke last Wednesday below its 4H MA50 for the first time since the start of April and is now consolidating under it. Within its 3-month Channel Up, this has always been a signal of more downtrend to come as it was technically halfway through the Bearish Legs of the pattern.
Given that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is the medium-term Support, our Target is at 1.12500, just above the Internal Higher Lows trend-line. Check also the 4H RSI sequences between these 3 Bearish Legs. It is exactly ranging between the levels it did half-way through those Legs.
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EUR/USD SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on EUR/USD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 1.103.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EURUSD time for correctionMonthly
On the monthly timeframe, we came to the Premium zone and captured Monthly Fractal High, where previously there was predominance from the sell side.
Weekly
Price has formed a Weekly FVG, indicating strong dominance from the buy side. However, it is important to understand WHERE this has led us ? The current quotes are interesting for sellers. Hence, we should assume that the price may receive a counter offer from the sell side. It is logical to assume potential points A and B in this context.
Daily
Price has formed primary signs of change in the price delivery state:
- Bullish PD Array disrespecting
- BISI forming
- CISD forming
All this indicates a shift of initiative to the selling side, so it is logical to expect a continuation of the downward movement after interaction with the marked PD Array.
Also, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the price is within the Inside Bar for the 3rd day already. This means that recently the price has been held within the same values, which indicates a balance of power between buyers and sellers at the current quotes. In such a situation, all we have to do is to find the optimal area to continue the downward price formation.
GOLD - FVG-Based Long & Short Setup Within Range ContextPrice action remains range-bound with well-defined FVG zones acting as both support and resistance, offering reactive trading opportunities on both sides.
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1. Upper FVG as Resistance — Short Setup Trigger Zone
The highlighted upper green zone marks:
- Fair Value Gap (FVG): A clear inefficiency from the previous bearish impulse.
- Structural Significance: Price has struggled to break and hold above, showing signs of supply reactivation.
This zone is likely to attract sellers upon revisit, offering a clean risk-defined short opportunity.
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2. Lower FVG as Support — Long Setup Zone
The lower blue zone serves as:
- FVG Rebalance Area: A region where price previously left inefficiency, now acting as strong support.
- Accumulation Interest: Smart money often reloads in such imbalanced areas on retests.
This zone is optimal for positioning into the next bullish leg should price dip lower.
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3. Liquidity Sweep Mechanics — Trap Both Sides
The market structure hints at:
- Step 1: Induce buyers into breakout longs into resistance.
- Step 2: Reverse from FVG, triggering short entries and trapping longs.
- Step 3: Collect liquidity from lower range, potentially initiating new accumulation.
This movement pattern is characteristic of engineered liquidity grabs in both directions.
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4. Mid-Range Reaction — Key Pivot Area
Price currently hovers around the mid-range zone:
- Serving as a temporary balance point before volatility expansion.
- Acting as a launchpad for the next impulsive move, depending on order flow dominance.
Patience here is key — waiting for clean confirmations near FVGs provides optimal entry quality.
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5. Summary:
- Upper FVG Resistance → Short Bias
- Lower FVG Support → Long Bias
- Structured Reactions Around Imbalances Suggest Smart Money Activity
This is a dual-sided setup ideal for reaction-based traders awaiting price confirmation at extremes.
USDCAD | Technical Rebound or Final Stop Before the Crash?USDCAD is currently in a highly delicate phase: the price has reached a key weekly demand zone between 1.3720–1.3820, which overlaps with a strong Fibonacci retracement cluster (0.705–0.78) of the previous bullish leg. So far, the reaction has been muted, but price compression and fading volatility suggest a potential short-term rebound.
However, looking at the bigger picture, the macro and positioning signals are flashing red for the US dollar:
📊 COT Report: Non-Commercials are significantly increasing short positions on USD and reducing shorts on CAD → bearish bias on USDCAD
🧠 Retail sentiment: Most retail traders are long on USDCAD → contrarian bearish bias
🗓️ Seasonality: May is historically negative for the USD and positive for the CAD → further confirms the short thesis
Only a structural recovery above 1.4150 on the weekly close would invalidate the bearish setup. Until then, any retracement towards 1.3980–1.4050 should be seen as an opportunity to sell strength.
🎯 Key Levels:
Sell zone: 1.3980–1.4050
Invalidation: Weekly close > 1.4150
Targets: 1.3720 – 1.3550
🔔 Critical note: When everyone is long, often the only direction left is down.
EURUSD Technical Analysis! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.1364 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.1417
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 29, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is down to 1.14150 in the early Asian session on Tuesday. The euro (EUR) is weakening against the US dollar (USD) amid rising bets for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June. Investors expect further US trade policy developments ahead of the release of the much-anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.
US President Donald Trump said progress is being made and he has spoken to Chinese President Xi Jinping, although Beijing denies that trade talks are underway. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he spoke with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs.
On Monday, Bessent said the U.S. government is in contact with China, but it is up to Beijing to take the first step to de-escalate the tariff fight with the U.S. over the trade imbalance between the two countries. Investors will be keeping a close eye on the US-China relationship. Trump's chaotic trade policies have undermined faith in US assets and the common currency has become an alternative destination for investors' cash. Any signs of an escalating trade war between the US and China could have a negative impact on the US dollar and serve as a tailwind for EUR/USD.
On Saturday, Reuters reported that ECB policymakers are increasingly confident of cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues to fall. On Monday, ECB chief Olli Rehn said the central bank may cut interest rates below the neutral level that keeps the economy in balance.
Trading recommendation: SELL 1.13800, SL 1.14000 , TP 1.13000
EUR/USD racing towards new highs? The market sends clear signalsThe EUR/USD pair is confirming a very strong bullish structure. On the weekly chart, the price is positioned above a key supply zone between 1.1350 and 1.1450, after strongly breaking through previous resistances.
The current consolidation at the top of the range suggests a potential continuation to the upside, with a first target at 1.1500 and an extended target at 1.1600.
Retail market sentiment shows a clear majority of short positions on EUR/USD.
This supports a contrarian bullish view, as historically, retail tends to be positioned against the prevailing trend.
COT report data further strengthens this outlook.
The US Dollar Index (USD Index) shows an increase in short positions among institutional traders, indicating a possible phase of dollar weakness.
Conversely, the Euro FX shows a significant increase in long positions from both non-commercial and commercial traders, highlighting institutional interest in buying the euro.
From a seasonal perspective, May tends to be neutral or slightly negative for the euro, while June historically favors moderate dollar strength.
This suggests that EUR/USD could still have room to rise over the coming weeks, but it will be important to monitor for signs of bullish exhaustion towards the end of May.
In summary, the current context favors further upside on EUR/USD as long as the price remains above the 1.1300 support.
However, it will be crucial to watch for the first signs of weakness as we approach June.
EURUSD: Weak Market & Bearish Forecast
The price of EURUSD will most likely collapse soon enough, due to the supply beginning to exceed demand which we can see by looking at the chart of the pair.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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BTCUSD MARKET MOVEMENT BTCUSD current price. 94448
Support 1 .. 91231
Support 2.. 88681
Target 1.. 96000
Target 2... 99534
Youare likely looking for a move up towards 99534, with 91231 and 88681 acting as your SUPPORT ZONES in case of a pullback.
QUICK VIEW ;
. Price is closer to your target than the support.
.As long as BTCUSD holds above 91231, your bullish target stays valid.
.If it drops below 88681, youy might want to re_evaluate the trade.
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing.
This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound.
Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points.
The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650.
Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones.
From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments:
Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection.
Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667).
The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift.
📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short.
Summary:
The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate.
We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone.
COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal.
However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000.
Current Strategy:
Slight bullish bias above 5,500.
Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650.
Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023.
Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450.
Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
Falling towards pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is fallling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 1.1192
1st Support: 1.1051
1st Resistance: 1.1512
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