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EURUSD-2

Fundamental Market Analysis for October 4, 2024 EURUSDAn event to look out for today: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Unemployment Rate EURUSD: EUR/USD remains on the defensive near 1.1030 on the back of a stronger US dollar during the early Asian session on Friday. Cautious market sentiment ahead of key US economic data is putting pressure on the major pair. All eyes will be on the release of US employment data due for release today. The US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released on Thursday provided some support to the US Dollar (USD). The services PMI rose to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August, beating the market forecast of 51.7, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims in the US rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week ended 28 September. The figure followed the previous week's data of 219,000 (revised from 218,000) and was worse than market expectations of 220,000. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said this week that policymakers are likely to stick to their policy of cutting rates by 25 basis points (bps) going forward. Markets have priced the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at nearly 68.9%, while the probability of a 50 bps rate cut is 31.1%, according to CME FedWatch Tool data. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday may provide some hints on how the US interest rate will move. The US economy is estimated to have added 140,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. If the employment report is weaker than expected, it could prompt the central bank to consider deeper rate cuts, which would put pressure on the US dollar. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers continue to hint that another rate cut could be in the near future. This, in turn, could weaken the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar. Kyle Chapman, currency analyst at Ballinger Group, said, ‘Policy is too tight given the challenging macroeconomic environment and a move to successive rate cuts seems self-evident now that disinflation is in its late stages.’ Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly Sell orders from the current price level
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Euro H4 | Falling to swing-low supportThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher. Buy entry is at 1.1005 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. Stop loss is at 1.0985 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level. Take profit is at 1.1071 which is an overlap resistance. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Long
by FXCM
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is reacting off the support level which is an overlap support and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1017 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level. Stop loss: 1.0955 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that is slightly above the 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Take profit: 1.1080 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance level that is slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Long
by VantageMarkets
Gold is ready for NFP!Gold (XAU/USD) has shown resilience, bouncing back to around $2,640 per ounce after hitting a daily low of $2,638 on Thursday. This recovery was fueled by growing concerns over a potential conflict between Israel and Iran, as well as a stronger US Dollar. On the fundamental side, gold remains influenced by expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy. Last week, the market predicted with over 60% probability a 50 basis point rate cut by November. However, stronger-than-expected US labor market data have reduced these expectations to 35%, boosting the US Dollar and applying bearish pressure on gold, which tends to lose appeal as the dollar strengthens. Technically, gold is in a phase of uncertainty. A break above $2,673, the weekly high, could signal a resumption of the uptrend, with a potential target of $2,700. Conversely, a break below $2,625 could lead to a test of support at $2,600. In the medium to long term, gold maintains a general bullish trend, supported by its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and the global low-interest rate environment.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Faces Pressure as USD Strengthens Ahead of US PCE DataThe EUR/USD pair experienced selling pressure on Friday, reversing part of the gains made in the previous session. The US Dollar (USD) found renewed strength as traders repositioned ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a key measure of inflation that could influence the Federal Reserve's policy outlook. This USD rebound played a significant role in dragging the EUR/USD lower, especially as the Euro approached a critical technical zone. The pair retested a supply area, forming a potential Double Top pattern a classic indicator of weakening momentum and an early sign of a bearish reversal. This technical setup suggests that the recent bullish move might be losing traction. Moreover, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are heavily bullish on the Euro. This often signals a contrarian opportunity, as extreme retail sentiment can precede a market reversal, with institutional traders typically positioning themselves in the opposite direction. With both technical and sentiment indicators aligning, we are anticipating a retracement in the EUR/USD pair. The current USD strength, coupled with a bearish chart pattern and aggressive retail optimism, supports the likelihood of a pullback in the near term. The release of the PCE inflation data could act as a catalyst, potentially increasing market volatility and applying additional pressure on the Euro. In summary, we expect the EUR/USD to face further downside risks as the USD gains traction. The technical setup and market sentiment suggest that the pair could retrace from current levels, especially if the upcoming US inflation data favors continued USD strength. We remain cautious and are watching for opportunities to position for a retracement. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EURUSD Further Up Trend potentialEURUSD has been in a bullish trend, and the recent impulse move down, followed by a pullback that took out liquidity below the 1.1100 support level, could signal the end of a correction. This behaviour is typical in bullish markets, where price pulls back to gather liquidity before resuming the upward trend. Given the overall bullish sentiment, there is a strong potential for a continuation of the trend. With strong bullish momentum, the market may be set to break through last month's high. The target is the resistance zone around 1.12000
Long
by RTED_Investing
2
EUR/USD 1H Long: Targeting 1.1130 - 1.1160 Ahead of ADP DataOn the 1-hour timeframe, EUR/USD is showing signs of potential reversal after a period of consolidation. The pair is currently trading near a key support zone under the FibCloud, indicating a potential opportunity for a bullish move. I’m positioning for a long trade, targeting the 1.1130 - 1.1160 range. If I get spiked out due to upcoming news, I will look to reenter the trade once conditions stabilize. Technical Analysis: • The price is testing support while hovering below the FibCloud, suggesting a potential breakout to the upside. • Recent consolidation after a series of declines could lead to a corrective bounce. • My target is the 1.1130 - 1.1160 zone, with stops placed below the recent swing low to manage risk. I will reenter if volatility from news spikes me out. Fundamental Analysis: Today’s news calendar is packed with significant events, particularly the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 14:15 UTC, which could influence volatility in the USD and subsequently impact EUR/USD price action. This release will provide insight into the U.S. labor market ahead of the NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) data, and traders should be prepared for potential swings in either direction. Other key events include several FOMC members speaking throughout the day, which may offer further insight into the Fed’s outlook. Risk Management: Given the potential impact of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data and other news, it is crucial to stay vigilant. I’m managing risk by placing stops below the recent swing low and will monitor volatility closely. Should the trade spike me out due to news, I will reassess and potentially reenter if the setup remains valid. • Stop-Loss: Below the recent swing low to protect from downside risk. • Reentry Plan: If stopped out due to news, I’ll look for confirmation before reentering long positions. EUR/USD presents a long opportunity targeting 1.1130 - 1.1160, but it’s essential to remain flexible given the high-impact news on the horizon. I’ll be prepared to reenter the market if needed, and proper risk management will be key to navigating any unexpected moves. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Long
by AR33_
EURUSD Will Grow! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 30m Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 1.103. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 1.105 level soon. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Long
by SignalProvider
1
XAU/USD : Let's go for SHORT! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that today the price faced a correction after reaching the key supply level at $2663 and is currently trading around $2654. Keep in mind that the shadow of war still looms over the market, so it's best to minimize your trading risk. At the moment, I expect further declines in gold to lower levels. The downside targets are $2647, $2644, and $2640, respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
6
GBP/USD : More Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around the 1.326 level. Given the current trend, I expect to see further declines in this pair. The first key target is the liquidity pool below 1.32370. This analysis will be updated, folks! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
3
USD/JPY : First Long, Then SHORT ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that after a sharp decline, the price created a large liquidity gap, which has just been filled at the moment. Currently, the price is trading around the 145.660 level, and after an initial bullish move, I’m expecting a further correction. So, first a LONG position, then a SHORT! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
10
EUR/USD : Another Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that, as per the previous analysis, the price faced selling pressure after filling the FVG and collecting liquidity above 1.12. So far, it has dropped over 160 pips down to 1.10500! If the price stabilizes below 1.10700, we can expect further declines in EUR/USD. This analysis will be updated, folks! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
7
EUR/USD Decline, USD Gains Momentum as Strong Job DataThe US labor market continues to exhibit strength, bolstering the US dollar as recent data beats expectations. The US JOLTS Job Openings report, released on Tuesday, showed a surprising increase of 329K job openings, rising from a revised 7.711 million in July to 8.040 million in August. This unexpected surge reinforces the resilience of the US economy, providing near-term support to the US dollar. Additionally, today's ADP private sector survey reported that 143K jobs were added in September, exceeding the 120K forecast, while August's reading was revised upward from 99K to 103K. These positive labor market signals have intensified the dollar's bullish momentum, particularly against the euro. As we previously forecasted for EUR/USD, the price rejected our key Supply area and has already reached the first take-profit target. With the pair edging closer to our second target, the US dollar's strength looks set to drive EUR/USD lower, with the next potential support sitting at the 1.09500 area. Strong US Labor Data Drives Dollar Higher The JOLTS and ADP reports reflect the robustness of the US labor market, providing the Federal Reserve with more room to maintain higher interest rates. With job openings and private sector employment both outperforming expectations, market sentiment is increasingly favoring the US dollar as investors anticipate the Fed may continue its hawkish stance. The surge in job openings suggests that demand for labor remains high, which could keep inflationary pressures elevated and justify further rate hikes or prolonged tight monetary policy. Likewise, the ADP data highlights sustained private-sector job growth, reinforcing the overall strength of the labor market and lending further support to the greenback. EUR/USD Under Pressure: Aiming for 1.09500? On the technical front, EUR/USD remains under pressure after rejecting the Supply area as anticipated in our earlier forecast. The pair has already hit the first take-profit level, and further downside appears likely if today's US Unemployment Claims report comes in better than expected. A less severe unemployment figure compared to the forecast would strengthen the dollar further, pushing EUR/USD toward the 1.09500 support zone. The pair has been trending lower due to a combination of strong US economic data and a weaker euro, as the European Central Bank (ECB) takes a more cautious approach to monetary policy. This divergence between the Fed and the ECB has weighed heavily on the euro, and with US data continuing to outperform, the trend could persist in the near term. Key Data to Watch: US Unemployment Claims Today, the market will focus on the release of US Unemployment Claims data, which could further influence the direction of EUR/USD. Should the report come in better than forecast, indicating a continued decline in unemployment, the dollar would likely strengthen further, pushing the pair closer to the 1.09500 mark. In conclusion, the combination of strong US labor data and hawkish expectations for the Federal Reserve is fueling dollar strength, pressuring EUR/USD lower. If today's unemployment claims report aligns with the recent positive trend in US employment, a continuation of the bearish momentum could drive the pair to our next target. Traders should watch the unemployment claims release for further confirmation of this downward move. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
BTCUSD: How to trade ?Today’s analysis for BTCUSDT based on the chart shows a potential continuation of bearish momentum. The price has been rejected at a resistance level around $63,000, highlighted by the red arrow and labeled "Resist". The current price is hovering around $61,100, and we observe that BTCUSDT is struggling to break back above this resistance zone. Key Points: Resistance: $63,000 is acting as a strong resistance level. Support: There is a crucial support zone around $54,300, as shown in the green area on the chart. Strategy: Bearish Scenario: If BTCUSDT fails to break above the resistance around $63,000, a further drop towards the support level at $54,300 is likely. Consider short positions below the resistance level with a target near the support zone. Stop Loss: Set above $63,000 to mitigate risks in case of a breakout. Bullish Scenario: If there is a clean break above the $63,000 resistance level, the next upside target could be around $66,000 or higher, invalidating the bearish outlook. The overall sentiment remains cautious as investors monitor price action around key resistance and support zones.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Suyouu
3
Rebound of EURUSD to the lower boundary H4. 03.10.2024Rebound of EURUSD to the lower boundary Euro is forming a correction downwards and judging by the options, will be taken out to the area of 1.1000. This analysis was shown in advance in a private channel for subscribers when a deep correction downwards was confirmed, and later clarified by options. From the lower boundary near 1.10 we will catch buys when confirmed. Cumulative delta rising on a decline is a sign of a pullback and continuation of the decline, so I am not in a hurry and waiting for a rebound with confirmation of a reversal. OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by KovachTrader
US Dollar Index Climbs to 101.00 as Powell Signals Rate CutsThe US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen close to the 101.00 level following remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who indicated that future rate cuts would be implemented gradually. This rise comes as no surprise, as the DXY has rebounded from a key demand area that was previously identified. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bearish on the US Dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—have shifted toward long positions, further supporting the currency's strength. This bullish sentiment in the US Dollar is reinforced by the fundamental backdrop. Today, the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings reports could further fuel the DXY’s upward momentum. A positive outcome from these key economic indicators would indicate continued resilience in the US economy, bolstering expectations for the Fed to maintain its gradual approach to rate adjustments, which in turn supports the USD. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is a key gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector, and a strong reading would reflect ongoing economic expansion, likely pushing the DXY higher. Similarly, the JOLTS Job Openings data provides insights into labor market strength, and a robust figure would further cement the case for a stronger US Dollar. Technically, the DXY’s recovery from the demand area, combined with the shift in institutional positioning, points to a sustained bullish outlook for the US Dollar. With smart money moving to the long side and retailers still bearish, the DXY could continue its climb, especially if today's economic data aligns with market expectations. In conclusion, the US Dollar Index is experiencing a bullish run following Powell’s comments on gradual rate cuts, and the momentum is likely to be reinforced by positive ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data. As retail traders remain bearish and institutional investors shift toward the long side, the DXY could see further gains in the near term, particularly if economic data supports the Fed’s cautious but optimistic outlook.
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXN1
7
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx