Euro H1 | Falling toward a swing-low supportThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.0809 which is a swing-low support.
Stop loss is at 1.0755 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 1.0929 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURUSD-2
EUR/USD Flat Amid Market Uncertainty and Recession FearsThe EUR/USD pair remained stable on Tuesday, showing little movement as traders entered a data-heavy week in the U.S. markets. On Monday, global equities experienced a sharp sell-off, driven by rising recession fears, leading to broad market declines. However, EUR/USD traders are taking a cautious approach, awaiting key U.S. inflation data before committing to any major moves.
Key resistance is at 1.0850, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0950. Support stands at 1.0730, with further levels at 1.0700 and 1.0650.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bullish SetupThe EUR/USD chart shows a textbook setup with the EMA Trading System providing a high-probability long entry.
System Signals
EMA System Status: Bullish Signal with Bullish Trend
Alignment: Confirmed (optimal confluence)
Chart Pattern: Bullish reversal after pullback to dynamic support
Key Technical Elements
The price action shows a clear bullish reversal pattern with an uptrend resuming after testing the 21 EMA support
Background coloring is green, confirming the 21 EMA > 55 EMA relationship (bullish trend)
A green triangle entry signal is visible where the 8 EMA crossed above the 55 EMA
All EMAs are properly aligned in a bullish stack formation (8 > 13 > 21 > 55)
MACD indicators (bottom of chart) show positive momentum with blue line crossing above orange line
Trade Parameters
Entry: 1.08901
Price Target: 1.10028 (1127 ticks/pips gain)
Stop Loss: 1.08356 (545 ticks/pips protection)
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2
Market Context
The EUR/USD is showing strength in an established uptrend. The recent pullback created an ideal entry point as price found support at key EMA levels before resuming its upward trajectory. Volume is supporting the move as indicated by the rising histogram bars below the chart.
This setup aligns perfectly with our MACR strategy parameters, offering a high-probability trade with excellent risk-reward characteristics.
The Confirmed alignment status and clear bullish trend provide strong confluence factors supporting this long position.
EUR/USD at Key Resistance: Is a Major Retrace Coming? 💹📉
In this video, we dive deep into the EUR/USD currency pair and analyze the current market conditions. 📊 At the moment, the pair is overextended and trading into a critical weekly resistance level. 🚨 There's a high probability that the buy orders driving the price higher will interact with the buy stops resting at this zone, potentially triggering a significant retracement. 🔄 Join me as we break down the trend, price action, and market structure, and explore a potential trade idea based on these insights. 🧠💡 Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, this analysis will give you valuable perspectives on how to approach key levels in the market. ⚠️ This is not financial advice—always trade responsibly! ⚠️
Don't forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more market insights! 👍📈✨
EURUSD: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
EURUSD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell EURUSD
Entry Level - 1.0835
Sl - 1.0936
Tp - 1.0653
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Don’t forget: US also faces a government showdown With markets in turmoil, it's easy to overlook the growing risk of a U.S. government shutdown.
A three-week market sell-off intensified today as investors worry that unpredictable policies from the Trump administration are pushing the economy into recession.
The S&P 500 is down 9.1% from its February high, the Nasdaq 14%, and the Russell 2000 18%. A 10% decline is considered a correction.
Bitcoin also dropped below $80,000, while the USD and gold are seeing some weakness.
Meanwhile, Lawmakers have until Friday, March 14, to pass a funding bill. But House Republicans must secure near-unanimous support.
The longest shutdown in history lasted 34 days in 2018 over Trump border wall funding. Now, Democrats again hold key leverage. While Republicans have a House majority, they need Democratic support in the Senate to pass funding. Some see this as a rare chance for Senate Democrats to challenge Trump’s/ Elon Musk’s cuts via the Department of Government Efficiency, though it’s unclear if they will take that risk.
EUR-AUD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-AUD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
Made a bullish breakout
Of the key horizontal level
Of 1.7145 which is now
A support then made a
Bullish rebound so we are
Bullish biased and we
Will be expecting a
Further move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
What to do after you missed a big price move (Example: EUR/USD)There was a big fast move in EUR/USD last week.
The ‘European currencies’ did especially well versus the US dollar, including GBP/USD and USD/CHF as well as the ‘Skandies’ SEK/USD and NOK/USD.
If you rode the move, then job done. If you did ride the move up, you might have taken full profits already - or maybe you are leaving a little bit of the position open to ride any continuation of the move.
But, what to do if you missed it completely?
Explosive moves in the market usually mean traders who were on the ‘losing’ side step out for a while, having lost confidence in their view. For example if you were bearish and the market makes a significant move higher - you’re probably going to be a lot less confident in your bearish view - but perhaps also not ready to take an opposite bullish view. The loss of sellers in the market can see the up-move continue with minimal pullback.
This might suggest buying any small dips to ride the next leg higher, and emotionally it would offer some salvation to capture the second leg of the move even if you missed the first leg. However, what you are doing here is ‘chasing the market’.
One trouble is that after a big move in the market, there is no definitive place to put your stop loss, except at the beginning of the move - which is now far away. That's a bad risk: reward.
It is tempting to place a closer (more manageable) stop loss under lower timeframe levels of support - but then you find yourself trading an unknown strategy that requires different rules to follow because it is based on a lower timeframe.
And indeed, after a sharp move in the market - there is still a chance for a sharp pullback to match. Why? Because buyers quickly take profits on their unexpected quick gains, which will create selling pressure into minimal support - because the next support level is far away.
A sharp pullback would mean an opportunity to buy into the uptrend at a lower level, closer to the previous support. But then the flipside of the sharp pullback is that it raises questions over the sustainability of the initial move.
Probably the biggest takeaway here is not to think about this ‘explosive’ move in isolation.
Instead of forcing a trade, consider:
1. Waiting for the right setup in the same market. If your strategy is based on structured breakouts, wait for the next clean consolidation or pattern before re-engaging. A big move often leads to a new setup—but forcing a trade in the middle of a volatile move isn’t a strategy, it’s FOMO.
2. Looking at uncorrelated markets. Just because EUR/USD already made a big move doesn’t mean you have to trade it now. If you want to be in at the start of a move, shift focus to another market that hasn’t yet made its move.
3. Sticking to your edge. If your strategy works over hundreds of trades, don’t abandon it just because one market moved without you. The next opportunity will come—if not in this market, then in another.
Again, the best trades don’t come from reacting to what already happened, but from positioning for what’s about to happen. If you missed the move, accept it, reset, and wait for the next high-quality setup—whether in the same market or somewhere else.
EURUSD on its 1W MA200 after 5 months.The EURUSD pair hit on Friday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 5 months (since October 03 2024). This is a major Resistance level which initiated a strong -4.00% decline on December 28 2023.
In fact -4.00% declines have been quite common for EURUSD in the past 2 years. However, the pair's strongest Resistance level has been the 1M MA100 (red trend-line) which has formed both market tops on October 01 2024 and July 18 2023.
As a result, the most optimal sell entry would be when the 1W RSI hits its Resistance Zone, with the price probably close to the 1M MA100 within the Lower Highs Zone. On the long-term, the R/R has shifted dramatically in favor of selling right now. If the rejection does happen on the 1W MA200 eventually and won't close any 1W candle above it, we have a short-term Target at 1.04600 (-4.00% decline) and if the rejection takes place higher, we will be expecting a bottom near parity with a technical Target at 1.00500 (Lower Lows Zone).
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Euro can rebound up from support line to 1.1000 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at this chart, we can see that a few days ago, the price entered a range, where it immediately broke through the 1.0425 support level, which aligned with the buyer zone, and then moved to the upper part of the range. After trading near this area for some time, the price dropped back to the buyer zone, reaching the support line before starting to rise again. Soon, the Euro broke the 1.0425 level once more and later exited the range, continuing its upward movement. Not long after, the price climbed to the 1.0805 support level, which coincided with a support area. It traded around this level for a while before breaking through it as well. Following that, the Euro reached the resistance line, reversed, and corrected back to the support area, where it found support again. Recently, it rebounded and started moving upward. Given this, I expect a further rebound from the support line and a breakout above the resistance line. Based on this scenario, my TP is set at 1.1000 points Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can drop to $1.0700, breaking support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price started to trades inside a broadening wedge, where it at once bounced up from support level to resistance line.
Then Euro some time traded in a range, and then dropped to support line of wedge, breaking $1.0420 level.
After this, Euro turned around and made strong upward movement to resistance line of a broadening wedge.
Also, it broke $1.0420 level and soon exited from broadening wedge and broke $1.0770 level too.
Next, Euro continued to move up inside rising channel, where it rose from support level to resistance line.
Possibly, price can rise a little in a channel and then bounce down to $1.0700, breaking support level and exit from channel.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
GBPUSD Retracing Before the Next Bullish Wave
GBPUSD is currently experiencing rejection from a key resistance zone between the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, around 1.288. This suggests that the pair is undergoing a healthy correction before resuming its bullish trend. A small retest to the downside could provide buyers with a better entry point before the next strong upward move. If support holds around 1.260, GBPUSD may gather momentum for another bullish rally.
Fundamentally, the pair remains supported by recent market sentiment favoring the British pound. Positive economic data from the UK and expectations around the Bank of England's policy stance could provide further upside pressure. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar's strength or weakness will also play a crucial role, particularly as traders anticipate upcoming Federal Reserve decisions and inflation data. Any signs of economic slowdown in the U.S. could push GBPUSD higher.
From a technical perspective, traders should closely watch the 1.260 level as a potential retest zone. If this level holds, we could see renewed buying pressure targeting new highs beyond 1.288. A breakout above this resistance could accelerate gains, opening the door for further bullish movement. Keeping an eye on market volume and price action at key Fibonacci levels will be crucial for identifying the best trade opportunities.
EURUSD: testing the 1,08 resistanceThe Non-farm payroll figures were the ones that the market closely watched, posted on Friday. The NFP for February was 151K in February. The figure was slightly below the market estimate of 160K. The unemployment rate in February was 4,1%, by 1 pp higher from the previous month. The average hourly earnings increased by 0,3% for the month and 4% on a yearly basis. As for other data macro posted for the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for February was standing at 50,3, a bit below market consensus of 50,5. The US ISM Services PMI in February was standing at 53,5 which was a bit higher from forecasted 52,6.
The ECB held a meeting during the previous week, and decided to further decrease its facility rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2,5%. Inflation rate in the Euro Zone in February, preliminary for the month was 0,5%, leading to 2,4% on a yearly basis. At the same time, core inflation was 2,6% y/y. All figures were in line with market estimates. The unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in January was without change from the previous month, at 6,2%. The market forecast was expecting a bit higher figure, of 6,3%. The HCOB Composite PMI final in February for Germany was standing at 50,4, below market consensus of 51. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was 50,2 in February and was in line with market estimates. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone in January was standing higher by 0,8% for the month and 1,8% for the year. Both figures were a bit higher from market expectations. The third estimate of EuroZone GDP growth for the Q4 was 0,2% for the quarter, bringing the GDP growth on a yearly basis to the level of 1,2%. This was better from the market estimate of 0,9%.
One of the beneficiaries of the uncertainty over new US Administration moves are EU markets. The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps, for one more time, while the NFP figures in the US showed a bit of slowdown. This was more than enough for markets to favor EUR currency during the previous week, trading with the uptrend during the whole week. The currency pair started the previous week around the level of 1,038, and was strongly pushed to the upside, and highest weekly level at 1,088. This was a strong weekly move, while eurusd ended the week at 1,083. The strong resistance level at 1,08 was last time tested in November 2024. The RSI currently stands at a strongly overbought market side. The MA50 started its convergence toward the MA200. There is still a distance between two lines, so the cross will be postponed for the future period.
After a strong move to the upside, where the overbought market side was clearly reached, some short reversals are probable in the coming period. For the week ahead, it could be expected that the market will continue testing the 1,08 resistance line for the potential toward the downside. On the opposite side, there is some small probability for the move toward the 1,09, the next resistance level, but some stronger moves should not be expected, based on current charts.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Balance of Trade for Germany in January, Industrial Production in January for Germany, Industrial Production in the Euro Zone in January, Inflation rate in February for Germany,
USD: JOTL`s Job Openings in January, Inflation Rate in February, Producers Price Index in February, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for March
MarketBreakdown | EURUSD, USDCHF, EURAUD, US30
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #EURUSD weekly time frame 🇪🇺🇺🇸
After multiple attempts to violate a key daily horizontal resistance,
EURUSD was rejected.
It looks like the underlined blue area will keep being a strong supply area.
Probabilities will be high to see a pullback from that.
2️⃣ #USDCHF daily time frame 🇺🇸🇨🇭
The price reached a significant daily demand cluster on Friday.
That zone concentrates huge buying volumes.
I think that the pair is going to start a correctional movement soon.
3️⃣ #EURAUD weekly time frame 🇪🇺🇦🇺
The market did not manage to break a key daily horizontal resistance level.
We see a strong bearish pressure after the market opening today.
Chances are high that the market will continue falling.
4️⃣ #US30 1 hour time frame 🇬🇧🇨🇦
I see a nice gap down opening.
With a high probability, it is going to be filled soon.
Expect an intraday bullish movement.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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Fatigue in EUR/USD: Time to Sell the Rallies?Last week, EUR/USD saw an explosive rise, breaking above my 1.06 target and even surpassing the next resistance at 1.08.
However, signs of fatigue are emerging, and there appears to be significant selling liquidity around the 1.09 level.
With the DXY currently in a support zone and potentially set for an upward reversal, I expect EUR/USD to decline and correct its 500-pip rally.
A break back below 1.08 would confirm this scenario, potentially leading to a test of the 1.06 zone.
Selling rallies near 1.09 could offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.0778, a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.0927, a swing high resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.0651, below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
FX Pre Market Analysis - Is the EUR/USD explosion slowing down?In this week's pre market analysis video, I go over the completed EUR/USD trade and what I'm looking for moving forward. The EUR/USD had an explosive bullish move last week however, there could be indications of momentum slow down.
Currently holding short at 1.0815 and would like to see us stay below 1.0900 - 1.9500 max for a pullback towards 1.06000.
The long term perspective could indicate a pullback out of a large triangle formation, followed by equal or new lows below 1.0000.
Good Luck and Trade Safe.
#EURUSD 1DAYEURUSD (1D Timeframe) Analysis
Market Structure:
The price is currently facing resistance and has formed a sell engulfing pattern, indicating potential bearish pressure. This suggests that sellers are gaining control and a downward move may be expected from this level.
Forecast:
A sell opportunity may arise if the price continues to respect the resistance level and confirms bearish momentum.
Key Levels to Watch:
- Entry Zone: A sell position can be considered near the resistance zone after confirmation of bearish price action.
- Risk Management:
- Stop Loss: Placed above the resistance zone to manage risk.
- Take Profit: Target key support levels based on previous price action.
Market Sentiment:
The formation of a sell engulfing pattern at resistance indicates strong selling interest. Confirmation of bearish momentum can provide a better validation for a sell setup.
CADJPY - Take Advantage of This Clean Correction!CADJPY Daily Timeframe
CADJPY has shown a clear impulse in July 2024. We are now in a massive correction, consisting of 3 major waves, ABC. It appears we have almost completed Wave B and now we are anticipating wave C.
We expect wave C to push up to the corrective highs where we have the 61.8 fib.
Here are some key things to watch:
- Wave Structure: Ensure that Wave B has completed its corrective pattern
- Wave C Confirmation: Look for a strong bullish impulse off the lows of Wave B.
- Volume & Momentum: A rise in volume and bullish divergence in RSI/MACD could confirm Wave C is underway.
Confirmation for Wave C:
Break of Structure (BOS) / Trendline Break
When identifying confirmation for Wave C, a Break of Structure (BOS) or a Trendline Break is one of the strongest signals that the corrective phase is ending.
Break of Structure (BOS) – Key Levels to Watch
Wave B typically forms lower highs and lower lows. A break above the last lower high signals a bullish shift.
Look for a decisive close above the previous swing high on the 4H or daily timeframe. A weak break (with wicks) may indicate hesitation.
A higher low after the break adds extra confirmation.
Trendline Break – Reversal Signal
If Wave B formed a descending trendline, watch for a clean breakout with strong bullish candles (not just wicks).
Retest of the trendline as support after the breakout strengthens the case for Wave C starting.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for Wave C to start using the techniques listed above
- Once entered, keep stops below wave B
- Targets: 107 (500pips), 112 (1000pips)
Goodluck and as always trade safe!
See below for our previous swing setups:
Swing Setup 1
Swing Setup 2
Swing Setup 3
NZDJPY - 2025 Plan. Make It Your Best Year Yet!Here we have the 2 Day chart for NZDJPY.
We've seen a massive impulse mid 2024. We are now in an ABC correction.
We are currently in wave B of the correction, subwave B. Expecting subwave C to complete wave B.
We're looking for a rejection of the fib zone and a drop of over 700pips.
Trade idea:
- Watch for rejection of fib zone
- Once rejection appears, enter with stops above the highs
- Targets: 86 (350pips), 83 (700pips)
Once we've completed this move down, we'll be looking for longs. We'll update this setup if there's enough engagement.
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
AUDJPY - Growing SHORTS! Big Move Ahead!In one of our last AUDJPY analysis, we indicated that price looked foppish. Since then, we've had almost a 2000pip drop!
That big drop can be marked as wave 1 in our new bearish impulsive trend.
We are now in Wave 2, which is an ABC correction. We have completed Wave A (3 waves). We are now in Wave B (3 waves). We're currently in subwave b of wave B. Expecting subwave c to appear very soon.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for bearish price action on lower timeframe
- You can use trendline break, fibs or BOS to find the reversal point
- When entered, put stops above subwave B.
- Target: 91 (750pips)
4Week Chart
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
See our previous setups below: