EURUSD-2
EURUSD 13 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - US PPI, Tariffs & Peace TalksThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 13 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
The EUR/USD’s rise yesterday, despite hotter-than-expected U.S. CPI data, reflects a complex interplay of technical, geopolitical, and market sentiment factors.
Initial CPI Shock and Subsequent Rebound
The U.S. CPI rose 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), with core CPI hitting 0.3% MoM, triggering an immediate USD rally and EUR/USD dips.
Fed Policy Expectations vs. Market Positioning
Despite the CPI spike, Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed urgency for rate hikes, stating the Fed is “close but not there yet” on inflation. This tempered fears of aggressive tightening and limited USD upside.
Geopolitical De-escalation and Risk Sentiment
Reports of a potential territory swap deal reduced geopolitical risk aversion, weakening the USD’s safe-haven appeal and supporting the Euro.
Diverging Central Bank Policies
While the Fed’s cautious stance limited USD gains, the ECB’s restrictive policy (rates at 2.75% vs. Fed’s 4.5%) and improving Eurozone PMI data (manufacturing: 46.6; services: 51.3) supported EUR strength.
The EUR/USD rally was a corrective rebound driven by:
Technical triggers after oversold conditions.
Powell’s refusal to escalate hawkish rhetoric.
Geopolitical optimism overshadowing inflation risks.
Relative Eurozone resilience amid global trade uncertainties.
While CPI data initially favored the USD, the market’s focus shifted to policy stability and risk sentiment, allowing the Euro to recover. However, sustained EUR strength hinges on ECB rate cuts and tariff developments.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bullish targeting the Liquidity above the Feb 5 and then Jan 30 before any considerable pullback to then continue to target the Weak 4H Swing High.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Sweeping Swing High
2️⃣
🔹With yesterday economic and geopolitics news, we had a mixed moves based on investors sentiment and their appetite to risk.
🔹INT structure continuing Bullish aligning with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase.
🔹Currently price in the process of creating a 15m Bullish Swing (BOS).
3️⃣
🔹With current Bullish INT Structure and the expected Bullish BOS on 15m and it’s alignment with the 4H Bullish Swing continuation phase, expectations is set to continue Bullish to facilitate the 4H Bullish move.
🔹Having in mind that after the 15m Bullish BOS we will have a pullback which will provide opportunities to Long as Shorts currently are not viable for me.
EURUSD (2H) - High Volatility and Bearish MomentumOANDA:EURUSD
📶 Technical Analysis:
Weekly Chart
🟢 The overall trend has been consistently bearish since October 2024, indicating a longer-term downtrend
🟢 A strong level of support has been broken and tested at 1.0500, indicating potential for further bearish movement.
🟠 In the past three weeks, volatility has significantly increased, due to a combination of fundamental factors.
Daily Chart
🟢 The overall trend has been bearish since October 2024, reinforcing a larger downside momentum.
4-Hour Chart
🟡 There was a bullish trend early in 2025, but it was broken, and bearish momentum took over by the end of January.
🔴 The February opening gap, influenced by Trump tariffs, caused a strong bullish volatility before a reversal took place.
2-Hour Chart
🟢 A reversal pattern in the form of a double top is visible, suggesting that the bullish momentum has ended. This pattern has been confirmed by two lower highs and two lower lows.
🟡 Watch for a retest of the 1.035 resistance level and confirmation of the double top pattern.
🟢 A break below the recent low at 1.030 would suggest continued bearish movement.
🟠 The next strong support level on the daily chart is around 1.022, where the price could potentially stall or reverse if it moves lower.
🆕 Fundamental Analysis:
🟢 The EUR/USD dropped to near 1.0360 after the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January.
🟡 US Labor Market: The economy added 143K jobs, fewer than expected (170K), but the Unemployment Rate dropped to 4% (better than the expected 4.1%).
🟡 The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in its June meeting, but this is uncertain due to mixed signals from the labor market. Chair Powell indicated that any rate adjustments will depend on real progress in inflation or weakness in the labor market.
🟢 President Trump warned of potential tariffs on European goods, which could hurt the Eurozone economy. The Eurozone is facing increased uncertainty, with concerns about higher US tariffs negatively affecting growth.
🟢 EUR/USD faces continued selling pressure, as the Eurozone's economic outlook remains weak, especially with the risk of US tariffs and a dovish ECB.
🔤 Summary:
🟡 Neutral Position Above Red Trend Line: If the price breaks above the red trend line, it could signal a shift to a neutral position, requiring fresh analysis for clearer direction.
🟢 Bearish Continuation Confirmation: As long as the price remains below resistance and the double top formation holds, a bearish continuation is likely.
🟡 Watch for Key Breaks: Pay attention to the break below 1.030 and how price reacts to the 1.022 support level for further confirmation of the bearish trend.
Trump-Putin call sparks euro rallyThe euro surged to session highs after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 90-minute call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, during which they agreed to visit each other and initiate negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trump stated that peace talks would begin “immediately.”
Technically, the euro rebounded from downtrend support, keeping attention on a potential breakout at the January range of 1.02–1.05. Bears potentially remain vulnerable as long as the pair holds above the 1.02 level.
Shortly after his conversation with Putin, Trump spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Zelensky later confirmed the discussion, describing it as “meaningful” and mentioning plans for a new agreement on security, economic cooperation, and resource partnerships.
EURUSD: Channel Up aiming at 1.05750EURUSD is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.912, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 23.143) as it has been ranging inside a Channel Up for the past month. The pair is now forming a Golden Cross on the 1H timeframe and based on the last one formed on the previous bullish wave (Jan 17th), it should now rise to a new HH. We expect a symmetric +2.70% rise on that move (TP = 1.05750).
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Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has broken out of the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0389
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.0331
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
Take profit: 1.0457
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
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Scenario on EURUSD 12.2.2025On the EURUSD market, I would see the following scenarios. I think that if a floor were to be established, then the sfp at the price of 1.02424 should follow, from here the price could rebound upwards. If the market does not react to this level, then we have the last option and that is the sfp at the price of 1.01958. Then we only have the monthly level, which if it does not hold, I would look for an entry into the long until somewhere below this level, otherwise I see short positions first around the price 1.04650 and then around the monthly level at the price of 1.05795.
+200 pips Best Level to Short EURNZD from Resistance🔸Hello traders, let's review the H1 chart for EURNZD today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiweek range, closing in on heavy S/R
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in EURNZD.
🔸Heavy overhead mirror S/R zone at 8370/8380 expecting reversal
from overhead resistance. current bid is 8355 so final push required
before we can get a decent entry on sell side.
🔸Recommended strategy for EURNZD traders: focus on short selling any rips/rallies near MS/R 8370/8380 price is currently trading near premium levels and is almost maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears +90 TP2 bears +180 pips final exit 8190 keep in mind this is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit both targets. good luck traders!
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EUR/USD 4H Elliott Wave Analysis**
The chart depicts a contracting triangle formation, possibly wave 4, as part of the broader impulsive wave sequence. Key invalidation levels are marked at **1.08372** and **1.04690**. A breakout above or below these levels will confirm the next move. If the pattern holds, wave 5 could target the lower support zone around **1.00169**. Watch for price action near the boundaries!"
!
EURUSD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The market is trading on 1.0325 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.0373
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USD/JPY : Another Bearish Move Ahead ? Let's see! (READ CAPTION)By analyzing the daily USD/JPY chart, we can see that, as expected from the previous analysis, the price continued its downtrend, correcting down to 151.
Currently, USD/JPY is trading around 153.620, and I expect it to resume its decline soon from the current zone (153.68 - 155.3).
This analysis will be updated as price action develops. The next potential bearish targets are 152.70, 151.70, and 151.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
DeGRAM | EURUSD decline in the channelEURUSD is in a descending channel between trend lines.
Price has reached the upper boundary of the channel and dynamic resistance and is now holding under the 62% retracement level.
The chart has broken the descending structure, but the ascending one has not been formed yet.
The indicators on the 1H Timeframe indicate local overbought and a bearish divergence has formed.
We expect a decline in the channel after a retest of the upper boundary.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound in the channelEURUSD is in a descending channel between trend lines.
The price is moving from the lower boundary of the channel and dynamic support, which previously acted as a rebound point.
The chart is holding above the 62% retracement level.
We expect a bounce in the channel.
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Consolidation, Demand Zones✅ Daily Timeframe Insights:
The EUR/USD has been consolidating between the 25% and 75% levels of its range. A potential upside continuation is expected if the demand zone at the bottom of the range holds. We’re eyeing a breakout of key levels for a bullish push.
✅ Weekly Timeframe Overview:
The EUR/USD is poised to target the previous week's high, supported by a weekly structural shift. This aligns with a broader retracement from liquidity lows, indicating strong momentum for further upside in the short term.
✅ Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance at 1.04670 (December high) is critical for further bullish confirmation.
Immediate downside risk arises if the current demand zone fails to hold.
✅ Economic Impact:
Today’s inflation data release will likely drive significant volatility. Traders should prepare for rapid price action and adjust strategies accordingly.
⚙️ Technical Tools & Key Concepts Used:
Liquidity zones
Supply & demand analysis
Fibonacci retracements (0.5 and 0.618 levels)
Weekly and daily fractal structure shifts
🚀 Forecast Summary:
While the bullish trend remains intact, news events like inflation figures could create temporary volatility or even reversals. For now, EUR/USD’s demand zones remain in control, favoring upside continuation. A break below key levels would signal short-term bearish opportunities.
Tags:
#EURUSD #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #PriceAction #TradingStrategy
EUR/USD Steady as Markets Await Key US Inflation ReportEUR/USD trades near 1.0450, with the dollar index steady at 108 on Wednesday, as markets await a key inflation report. January CPI is expected to show core inflation rising to 0.3% from 0.2% MoM, while annual inflation may ease to 3.1% from 3.2%. Fed Chair Powell told Congress the Fed isn’t rushing to cut rates, citing economic strength and inflation risks. He warned that premature easing could stall inflation progress, while delays could harm growth. Markets also assess the impact of Trump’s latest tariff hike.
From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0400, with further resistance levels at 1.0460 and 1.0515 if the price breaks above. On the downside, the initial support is at 1.0275, followed by additional support levels at 1.0220 and 1.0180.
EURUSD - There are two levels ahead.- If we can't break through the monthly highs, we'll fall.
It will be a great short with a clear target.
- breakout of the slope on the third touch on the 4h 1h bottom
if you like the idea, please "Like" it. This is the best "Thanks!" for the author 😊 P.S. Always do your own analysis before a trade. Put a stop loss. Fix profits in installments. Withdraw profits in fiat and please yourself and your friends.
EURUSD Is Going Up! Buy!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.032.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.034 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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EURUSD 12 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday Analysis - CPI, Powell & TariffThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 12 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
In my Weekly Analysis, tariffs continue to dominate the narrative, yet market reactions have become the primary focus. The critical question is whether investors have grown accustomed to tariff-related news—leading to muted responses—or if the persistent tariff war rhetoric will trigger renewed market anxiety.
Notably, Powell’s testimony yesterday failed to offer any fresh insights; however, there is hope that today’s session might shed some light on future policy directions. Additionally, the USD’s weakness observed at the close of trading yesterday appears to have been driven more by reports of a territorial swap in Ukraine’s peace deal—and possibly an initial leak of the CPI data—rather than by Powell’s remarks.
Today’s CPI report is expected to be a significant driver of market volatility. Investors are eagerly anticipating softer CPI numbers, which could encourage the Fed to consider not only an earlier rate cut but potentially two cuts this year, contrasting with the current market consensus of just one. While tariffs are clearly contributing to upward inflationary pressures and prompting a cautious stance from the Fed, the immediate volatility is likely to stem from the CPI data. The market will be closely watching whether the tariffs are being employed as a negotiating tactic—or if they signal an intentional escalation towards a trade war.
Markets face a tug-of-war between CPI-driven rate hopes and tariff-induced risks. While CPI may spark a tactical rally if soft, tariffs remain the swing factor – any escalation (e.g., new retaliatory measures) would overshadow short-term data. Position for choppy trading until Trump’s tariff strategy crystallizes.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹The reaction from the recent 4H Demand Zone formed a Bullish CHoCH and a fresh Demand zone where price can pullback to after tapping the recent 4H Supply Zone.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to Bearish to target the Weak INT Low as long LTFs turning Bearish.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹At Swing Premium
2️⃣
🔹With yesterday PA, price failed to continue Bearish and created a Bullish i-BOS.
🔹Price reached the 4H supply as anticipated and mitigated the 15m Supply within the 4H to maybe initiate the Bullish INT Structure pullback phase and if the swing is going to continue Bearish there is a high probability to target the Strong INT Low.
🔹The current Bullish i-BOS aligns with the 4H Swing where we have also a high probability that we can target the 15m Strong Swing High.
🔹With the inconsistency of Time frames alignments, a clear direction is difficult to identify which requires a sit back and watch till we have a clear direction.
3️⃣
🔹From an intraday perspective, expectations are set to Bearish to facilitate the Bullish INT Structure pullback.
🔹Today’s CPI, Powell and Tariffs talks will have high volatility that could direct me tomorrow or next week for a clearer direction move.
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H4 chart, price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.03623, which aligns with a pullback support level.
A strong bullish reaction from this level could drive price toward our take profit at 1.04609, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.02627, below a key support zone, ensuring room for market fluctuations
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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook Amid CPI Data ReleaseEUR/USD is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with an anticipated level of 1.03960. If momentum strengthens beyond this point, the next key level to watch is 1.04260. With the upcoming CPI data release today, any negative impact on the USD could further support bullish movement, increasing the probability of reaching the second level at 1.04260.
EUR/USD Bullish Outlook Following Bat Pattern CompletionThe EUR/USD 1-hour chart displays a completed Bat harmonic pattern, with price reversing near the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level, suggesting a potential bullish move. Key trade levels include a support zone at 1.02911 and targets at 1.03394 (T1) and 1.03784 (T2).
Current consolidation above the pattern's completion point indicates potential continuation to the upside, with confirmation needed via a breakout above the highlighted zone. A stop-loss below 1.02911 is advised to manage risk. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish setup.