USD/JPY: Ready for a Rally or a False Recovery?USD/JPY is at a crucial stage, with the price hovering around 143.900. After a bearish move, the market is attempting to recover, aiming for the resistance zone between 149.000 and 151.000.
COT Insight:
COT data shows a slight increase in long positions among speculative traders (+397), while commercials are increasing their short coverage (+539), indicating caution.
Seasonality:
Historically, May has been a slightly bullish month for USD/JPY (+0.42% over the last 10 years), but the trend has been negative in the last 5 years (-0.57%), indicating uncertainty.
Retail Sentiment:
65% of retail traders are long, which could indicate potential bearish pressure in case of opposite moves, given the risk of position liquidation.
Conclusion:
Carefully monitor the price reaction around 144.000. A breakout towards 149.000 could signal a significant move, but the long retail pressure might represent an obstacle.
EURUSD-2
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our sell entry level at 1.1339, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 1.1142, a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss is set at 1.1475, a pullback resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1338
1st Support: 1.1274
1st Resistance: 1.1376
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR-USD Support Cluster! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair is
About to retest a support
Cluster of the rising and
Horizontal support lines
Around 1.1257 so after
The retest we will be
Expecting a local bullish
Rebound and a move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD: Bullish trend intact unless this pattern breaks.EURUSD remains marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.708, MACD = 0.008, ADX = 33.048) as in spite of correction of the last 2 weeks, the Bullish Megaphone remains intact with the price almost on its bottom. This maintains the bullish trend for at least another +7.80% bullish wave (TP = 1.21450). If the Megaphone breaks, the pattern and thus the trade are negated, and the trend turns bearish aiming at the 1D MA50, so the risk of going long now is very low.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
EUR/AUD Forms Bearish Lower High for Next Leg Down!Timeframe: 1-Hour (H1)
Ideal for swing or position-based intraday trades.
Entry Area (Supply Zone):
Price is reacting from 1.75850 – 1.75970 — strong resistance from prior structure.
Bearish Pattern:
Clear lower highs and supply test failure with rejection — confirms sellers' control.
Stop Loss:
Placed just above the resistance zone near 1.75976.
Target Zone (Demand):
Final green demand zone around 1.73880 – 1.74000 — key support and recent low.
Bearish Wave Projection:
Marked by consistent lower lows and tight bearish continuation structure.
Risk-to-Reward:
Very healthy setup with approx. 1:3+ RRR (ideal for professional entries).
==================================================================
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1425
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1533
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.1267
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
EURO - Price can start fall to support line of pennant patternHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price traded inside triangle, where it declined below $1.1310 level, but then made upward umpulse.
Price exited from triangle pattern and broke the $1.1425 level, after which it entered to pennant pattern.
In pennant, Euro reached the resistance line, after which it turned around and in a short time declined to the $1.1310 level, breaking $1.1425
Then the price some time traded between these two levels and later dropped to the support line of the pennant.
But recently it backed up and now traded very close to resistance line of pennant, so, I think it can rise a little.
After this movement, in my opinion, Euro can start to decline to $1.1300 support line of pennant.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Euro will exit from pennant and grow to resistance levelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at this chart, we can see how the price, after a strong upward impulse, the price entered into a consolidation phase, forming a classic upward pennant pattern. Throughout this structure, the price repeatedly respected both the support line and resistance line, tightening inside the pennant while still holding above the support level at 1.1300. This zone, between 1.1280 and 1.1300, marked as the buyer zone, has acted as a strong floor multiple times. Every touch to this area sparked bullish reactions, and most recently, we can see the rice once again starting to grow after dipping into this zone. On the upper side, the resistance level at 1.1430 coincides with the breakout target of the pennant, and also lies just below the seller zone, making it a logical TP 1 area for bulls. The current price action suggests that after a minor pull-back, the price may test the lower pennant edge and then rebound, potentially initiating an impulsive breakout toward 1.1430. Given this structure and the strong base forming around 1.1300, I expect Euro will grow upward toward my TP 1 at the 1.1430 level, thereby exiting from the pennant. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURAUD DETAILED ANALYSIS BULLISH OR BEARISHEURAUD is currently trading around 1.75600, forming a classic falling wedge pattern on the 12-hour timeframe. This structure typically signals a bullish reversal, and with price compressing near the wedge’s apex, the likelihood of a breakout to the upside increases significantly. Momentum is slowing on the downside, while buyers are beginning to show signs of re-entering the market, suggesting the pair is gearing up for a potential bullish surge toward the 1.85600 level.
Fundamentally, the euro is holding firm amid persistent inflation data from the eurozone, increasing speculation that the ECB might remain hawkish longer than expected. On the other hand, the Australian dollar is facing pressure due to softer commodity demand and cautious rhetoric from the RBA. This divergence in central bank outlooks favors euro strength in the near term. Today's minor beat on euro PMI data and lackluster performance in Aussie retail sales reinforces the strength of this directional bias.
Technically, this falling wedge is forming after a strong bullish impulsive leg, which adds further credibility to the reversal setup. Buyers have successfully defended the 1.7500 psychological zone, and a breakout above the wedge resistance could trigger a sharp rally. A move above 1.7600 would likely act as confirmation for bulls, opening the door for a measured move toward the 1.85600 target area.
As long as price holds above the 1.7400 region, this remains a high-probability bullish setup with a strong risk-reward profile. Traders will be closely watching for volume increase and price rejection candles at resistance to confirm the breakout. This is a prime example of a technical and fundamental confluence setup that professional traders look for when positioning for medium-term swing trades.
What is Next for EUR/USD? FenzoFx—EUR/USD formed a hammer candlestick pattern during the London session, above the 50-period simple moving average. The critical support level that stands between the bull and the bear market rests at $1.1327.
The bullish trend is likely to resume if the price remains above the support level. In this scenario, the next target could be the previous day's high at $1.1380, followed by $1.1450.
Weak Low in Trading RangeVery weak low in this range shown at the horizontal ray. I expect this to be taken out at some point to "grab" liquidity. Fairly large HVN also though which could suggest a bounce as buyers defend.
When this range breaks I am unsure if it will break up or down. EUR/USD trading fairly high and dollar sentiment seems to be picking up a little, so I think it will break low, however the technical outlook says it will break up.
As mentioned previously, on the daily/weekly chart we have one half of a very clean head and shoulders and the exact mirror image on the DXY chart. So lets see.
EURUSD update 7.05.2025Short-term growth to the resistance zone (~1.1400-1.1420),
Then, there was a reversal and impulsive fall—a break of support, further decline to levels below 1.1200, possibly to a Value Area Low.
Conclusion:
This is a bearish scenario, with a trap for longists at the resistance area and an emphasis on liquidity capture under support levels.
Best regards, EXCAVO
_____________________
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
DeGRAM | EURUSD bulls held the channel📊 Technical Analysis
● EUR/USD broke a falling‑wedge top right on rising‑channel support at 1.1270, flipping the pattern bullish.
● Holding above 1.1300 targets 1.1380; a clean break opens the 1.147‑1.155 supply, while downside is contained by 1.1270.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● USD softened on renewed tariff‑related uncertainty, giving the euro room to rebound.
● FXStreet flags fresh EUR/USD demand above 1.1300 as traders fade the greenback ahead of the Fed decision.
✨ Summary
Wedge breakout plus a weaker USD underpin a short‑term long bias: objectives 1.1380 → 1.1470‑1.1550; invalidate on a close below 1.1270.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
GOLD - Bullish Structure with Potential Continuation PlayThe current 1-hour chart of Gold (XAU/USD) demonstrates a clean bullish structure supported by an ascending channel and multiple unmitigated Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) acting as potential demand zones. This setup highlights the strength of the ongoing uptrend and offers insights into a high-probability continuation entry should price retrace.
Market Context and Trend Structure:
Following a prolonged downtrend visible in the earlier part of the chart, Gold reversed decisively with a bullish break of structure. Since then, price has been consistently printing higher highs and higher lows while respecting an ascending parallel channel. This channel, marked by two trendlines, encapsulates the short-term bullish momentum.
The current move is strong and impulsive, suggesting that institutional order flow is behind this leg. Candles are elongated with minimal wicks on the upside, reinforcing the idea of aggressive buying pressure.
Key Demand Zones and FVG Analysis:
Three major Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) have formed along the recent bullish leg, each potentially acting as a zone of reaccumulation. These FVGs are marked in green and correspond to areas where price left inefficiency after strong upward moves without immediate retracements.
* The most recent FVG, located just beneath current price, aligns with a minor structure support zone and overlaps partially with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. This area stands out as a prime candidate for a bullish continuation entry, particularly if price retraces and shows signs of holding.
* The middle FVG, slightly lower in the structure, represents a deeper mitigation level and could serve as a secondary entry in case the initial zone fails to hold.
* The lowest FVG is a broader inefficiency zone that formed near the base of the bullish reversal. If price returns this far, it would likely signify a temporary shift in momentum or deeper liquidity hunt before another leg upward.
Channel Structure and Momentum:
The ascending channel has been respected throughout the rally, offering visual confirmation of trend strength and the rhythm of pullbacks. The current price is near the upper boundary of the channel, and a short-term retracement is a logical expectation before continuation.
A pullback into the FVG + lower channel region would represent a convergence of structure, imbalance, and trendline support. These overlapping technical elements enhance the probability of a bounce from this zone.
Projected Path:
The chart also suggests a conservative bullish continuation projection, aiming toward the zone marked around 3449.12. This level appears to be a measured move extension and a safer target in relation to the overall structure. However, the note on the chart implies that the all-time high (ATH) could also be in play if momentum continues and market conditions remain supportive.
The key here is the behavior around the nearest FVG. If price retraces and holds this area—potentially forming a bullish engulfing or confirmation on lower timeframes—it may offer an ideal continuation entry with minimal drawdown.
Conclusion:
This Gold 1-hour chart reflects a strong bullish structure with clear institutional footprints left in the form of unmitigated FVGs. The alignment of ascending channel support and bullish imbalances creates a favorable setup for continuation traders. Watching the immediate FVG zone will be critical, as it may define the next impulsive leg toward higher targets. If that zone fails, deeper FVGs below offer secondary opportunities while maintaining the bullish bias as long as structural higher lows remain intact.
EURUSD – Quiet but Building for a Break?Unlike the wild volatility in Gold, EURUSD has been relatively calm over the past two weeks.
After a sharp spike above 1.1500, reaching a high near 1.1570, the pair corrected and settled into a tight consolidation, fluctuating within just 1%.
Current Setup:
• Price recently reversed from the 1.1280 support and is now pushing towards the 1.1420 resistance.
• Bulls can watch for a breakout above this resistance, which could open the door for a retest of the 1.1570 high.
• As long as 1.1280 holds, the strategy is to buy the dips.
For now, the range is tight, but a breakout could offer some opportunities.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
GBP/USD: Is the Bullish Impulse Over?The daily chart shows a significant bullish impulse that encountered strong resistance in the 1.3350 - 1.3400 area, where multiple supply levels and an important institutional selling zone are located. The bearish structure remains intact below this level, suggesting a potential decline towards the key support at 1.3100 - 1.3150. The short bias strengthens with the confirmation of resistance and the formation of a potential reversal.
COT Report (USD Index and GBP/USD)
USD Index: Non-commercial traders are slightly increasing long positions (+397) while reducing short positions (-128). This suggests a potential recovery of dollar strength, supporting a bearish move on GBP/USD.
GBP/USD: Non-commercials have significantly increased short positions (+6,426) and reduced long positions (-2,957), indicating a bearish sentiment. Commercials also show a slight increase in short positions (+5,070), confirming potential weakness in the pound.
Retail Sentiment
57% of retail traders are short on GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2916, while 43% are long at 1.3343. This imbalance could indicate a market attempt to capture stops above recent highs before a reversal.
Seasonality
Historically, the month of May shows a negative performance for GBP/USD. The 5, 10, and 15-year seasonal data indicate a consistent decline during this period, supporting the hypothesis of bearish pressure.
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 7, 2025 EURUSDEURUSD:
EUR/USD failed to hold on Tuesday, marking a new short-term consolidation range near the key 1.1300 mark as traders wait for a reason to move. The key event this week is the Federal Reserve (Fed) rate announcement in the middle of the week, which has pinned investor sentiment to the pole for now.
The Fed's upcoming rate decision on Wednesday remains the focus of markets this week. While many expect the Fed to maintain current rates, investors will be closely monitoring comments from policymakers, especially Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, for any signs that the shift to a rate-cutting cycle may occur sooner than expected.
Recently, the Fed has been facing increasing pressure to lower interest rates. Market participants have consistently sought lower funding costs, and the Trump administration has been particularly vocal in insisting that the Fed must cut rates to ease the cost of servicing US debt. However, this stance runs counter to the Fed's dual mandate of promoting full employment and controlling price stability, which President Donald Trump does not appear to be taking into account.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1330, TP 1.1440