USD/JPY in Free Fall: What’s Behind the Break Below 140?🔍 Technical Analysis – USD/JPY
The weekly chart shows a sharp rejection in the macro zone between 155–158, where strong supply is present (highlighted in red). After brushing historical highs, USD/JPY experienced a vertical drop down to 140, decisively breaking through the key zone at 148–146.
Price has now broken the weekly structure and is approaching an area that previously triggered significant rallies (blue zone between 138–141). Monthly support is in danger, with the RSI deeply in oversold territory, but no clear reversal signals just yet.
📊 COT Report – USD Index
Asset Managers: Slight recovery on long positions, but still in neutral territory.
Leverage Money: Increasing net shorts, indicating speculative bets against the dollar.
The divergence between the falling USD Index and speculative positions confirms a growing lack of confidence in the greenback.
📊 COT Report – JPY Futures
Asset Managers: Strong increase in long positions on the yen since December 2024.
Leverage Money: Reinforcing long bias since February 2025.
This confirms that institutional players are accumulating yen, possibly anticipating BoJ interventions or a broader flight-to-safety.
💥 Trade Outlook
USD/JPY is in full bearish breakout mode. If the 140 level breaks decisively, the next technical targets are:
137.00 → historical mid-level support
134.00 → base of the 2023 structure
Keep an eye on the RSI: a bullish divergence with strong volume could trigger a technical rebound. But as long as the overall sentiment remains strongly risk-off, every rally is a selling opportunity.
EURUSD-2
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Bounce Off Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.1426, a pullback support that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.1603, aligning with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
The stop loss is placed at 1.1266, a swing low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURUSD | Short‑Term Pullback Meets First Support ZoneI know a lot of you have been watching EURUSD closely. With recent developments, we could see a modest dip before the next leg up in the euro.
What’s Driving the Dollar
End of Market Indecision
As uncertainty fades, the dollar’s safe‑haven appeal eases. Investors feel more confident stepping into riskier assets.
U.S.–China Dialogue
News that the U.S. and China are ready to resume high‑level talks removes a huge overhang. Less trade‑war fear means less upward pressure on USD.
Solid Economic Data
Last week’s jobless claims and employment figures were far from recession‑level weakness. That supports the dollar in the near term.
Short‑Term Outlook
Putting these factors together, EURUSD may unwind some of its recent gains. Sellers could push price lower into the blue box, which marks our first support area.
Long‑Term Perspective
Even so, remember that President Trump’s ongoing policy surprises tend to rattle confidence in the dollar over time. Once this short‑term pullback is over, the euro stands to resume its broader uptrend.
How to Trade It
Wait for price to dip into the blue box
Look for lower‑time‑frame bullish breaks confirmed by CDV signals
Enter a long only when you see a clean structure shift and volume support
If price breaks below the blue box without a retest, stay out or reassess
This approach keeps risk tight and lets the market prove itself first. Many traders jump in too early. If you follow these steps, you’ll join the move with conviction rather than guesswork. I’ve built my track record by trading exactly this way—patiently and with clear confirmations. Stay tuned and let’s capture the next leg up together.
📌I keep my charts clean and simple because I believe clarity leads to better decisions.
📌My approach is built on years of experience and a solid track record. I don’t claim to know it all but I’m confident in my ability to spot high-probability setups.
📌If you would like to learn how to use the heatmap, cumulative volume delta and volume footprint techniques that I use below to determine very accurate demand regions, you can send me a private message. I help anyone who wants it completely free of charge.
🔑I have a long list of my proven technique below:
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I stopped adding to the list because it's kinda tiring to add 5-10 charts in every move but you can check my profile and see that it goes on..
USDCAD Ready to Collapse? COT Signals a Bearish Storm!🔎 1. COT Context – Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Asset Managers: Consistently net short for most of the period, but since January 2025, there's been a strong recovery—net positions have become progressively less negative. By mid-April, they’re still short, but significantly less so.
Leveraged Money: Also heavily short in December 2024, but showing a clear bullish reversal starting in early 2025, with net positions turning increasingly positive on CAD.
✅ Interpretation: There's been a clear sentiment shift from bearish to bullish on CAD starting late 2024. This adds downward pressure on USDCAD.
💵 2. COT Context – US Dollar Index (USD)
Asset Managers: Consistently long, but reducing their net exposure since late March 2025.
Leveraged Money: Opposite of CAD – heavily short in December 2024, now recovering, though without strong momentum. Positions are hovering around neutral.
⚠️ Interpretation: While CAD grows stronger, USD shows signs of indecision or profit-taking. This amplifies the bearish bias on USDCAD.
📉 3. Technical Analysis – USDCAD
Current Price: 1.38369, right near a strong demand zone between 1.3700 – 1.3830, which has already been tested multiple times.
The current weekly candle is forming a doji or pin bar, hinting at a potential technical bounce.
Key Resistance: 1.45215 (monthly high).
Key Support: 1.3700. A breakdown below this could trigger a move toward 1.3480.
RSI: Neutral to slightly bearish, no major divergences observed.
🧠 Technical Outlook:
If the 1.3700–1.3830 zone holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.4000–1.4100.
If that zone breaks, expect a bearish continuation toward 1.3580–1.3480.
📊 Trade Summary
Fundamental Bias (COT): Bearish USDCAD → Strong CAD, weakening USD.
Technical Bias: Neutral to bearish, potential for short-term bounce before continuation.
🧭 Trade Plan
🎯 Short on pullback toward 1.4000–1.4100 with stop above 1.4150, targeting 1.3600–1.3500.
🎯 Breakout trade below 1.3700 → Enter on daily close confirmation, target 1.3480.
EURUSD CRACK!I first turned bullish on the EUR back in November 2024 after the disastrous election results.
I have always felt the 105 area was a good area to go long, fundamentally going back all the way to 2017. Here is an example.
After 17 years of data, we can all agree that the 105 area was a great value to get long the EUR. Now we see a major CRACK! in the chart with the fundamentals to back it up.
Again, I remind you I am a MACRO Trader. So my trades hold for a long, long time unless the facts change. I don't do 3 pips and i am out crap!
Let this be a WARNING! To the dollar bulls!
Click Boost, follow, subscribe! Let's get to 5,000 followers so I can help them navigate these crazy markets, too. ))
EUR/USD – Pullback Entry After Weekly Breakout🧠 Macro View
LEI rising steadily: 71.5 → 81.15
Endogenous strength improving each month
Exo+LEI composite score: 498.65 → one of the strongest major FX models
USD: Fundamentally weak with dovish Fed, neutral COT
📅 Seasonality
📈 EUR Index bullish throughout April
📉 USD Index bearish all month
🔥 EUR/USD seasonality = strong long bias into April 30
📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart)
Price has broken weekly resistance → now acting as turncoat support
Expecting pullback to 0.382 Fib level (~1.1462) before continuation
Structure + macro + seasonality aligned for high-conviction long
📥 Entry: 1.1462 (Fib 0.382 retracement zone)
⛔ Stop Loss: Below (1.12424)
🎯 Take Profit: Retest high or 1.1583 and beyond (extension optional)
🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2.2+
EUR/USD Breakout Extends Toward 1.15 – Is 1.17 Next?The euro continues its sharp ascent, breaking convincingly above key resistance at 1.1200 and now eyeing the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 1.1745. Momentum remains firmly bullish:
🚀 Price has surged through both the 50- and 200-day SMAs
📈 MACD is accelerating higher, showing strong bullish momentum
📊 RSI is nearing overbought territory at 74.92, but not diverging yet
As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1200, the path of least resistance may remain higher. However, traders should watch for signs of exhaustion near the 1.17 area, a key technical confluence that could slow the rally.
-MW
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 21, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD broke out of a multi-day trading range and hit a new high since February 2022 around 1.1485 during the Asian session on Monday.
Despite “aggressive” comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's trade policy continues to undermine the dollar. Last Wednesday, Powell said the Fed would likely keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged and wait for more clarity before considering any policy adjustments. Meanwhile, Trump's retaliatory tariff announcements undermined investor confidence in U.S. economic growth and drove the dollar to a two-year low early in the new week.
The aforementioned factors largely offset the European Central Bank's (ECB) soft decision last week and served as a tailwind for EUR/USD. On Thursday, the ECB cut interest rates for the seventh time in a year and warned that economic growth would be hit hard by US tariffs, bolstering the case for further policy easing in the coming months.
Moving forward, traders this week will be focused on scheduled speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Tuesday and a number of influential FOMC members this week. In addition, the market's focus will be on the release of flash PMI indices, which could provide new insights into the state of the global economy. This, in turn, may give some impetus to the US dollar and EUR/USD.
Trade recommendation: BUY 1.1520, SL 1.1465 , TP 1.1565.
EURUSD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 1.15020 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 1.15639 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Reversal Coming on EUR/USD"EUR/USD approaching potential reversal zone. Watching for confirmation to short from the top of wave C. Target: previous support. #elliottwave #forextrading #eurusd”
Key Takeaways from the Chart:
1. Current Zone (C Wave):
Price is entering the key resistance/supply zone.
C wave completion is expected here (likely the end of the correction).
2. Bearish Reaction Expected:
You're forecasting a potential reversal from this zone.
A short-term retracement or trend reversal is likely, marked by the red arrow.
3. Trade Plan (Based on Idea):
Wait for Price Action Confirmation in the resistance zone (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar, divergence).
Once confirmed, look for a short entry with a target toward the yellow support box.
Use tight stop-loss above the resistance zone.
EURUSD 3 TARGETS for selling 3 TOPS. The 5 year cheat-sheet!The EURUSD pair opened the week with a strong rally already due to the fundamentals surrounding the recent Tariff news. The 1W RSI is overbought at 74.00 and it hasn't been that high since January 22 2018. That was a long-term Top for EURUSD that initiated a 2-year downtrend until the March 2020 COVID crash and the start of massive rate hiking.
Even the last two times that the RSI came close to such overbought levels, the pair started a 6-month peak formation pattern with 3 Highs that offered solid short entries before the eventual larger downtrend. Those periods were January 30 2023 - July 17 2023 and August 31 2020 - May 24 2021.
Given that EURUSD is now trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and just formed a 1D MA50/ 1W MA50 Bullish Cross, we are closer to High (1) than not, since every time that is formed close to the standard +16.19% rise from the bottom.
For those successive Highs, our long-term sell targets will be 1.12500, 1.13250 and 1.12000 on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level respectively.
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EURUSD: continuously overboughtPrevious week was the relatively calmer one on financial markets, to some extent due to lack of new information regarding trade tariffs. In addition, Friday was a holiday on Western markets, and was a non-working day, same as Monday in the week ahead. Usually, the pre-holiday period is a relatively calmer one on markets. As for macro data posted for the US, the Retail Sales in March were higher by 1,4% a bit higher from market consensus of 1,3%. The Industrial Production in March dropped by -0,3% for the month, while on a yearly basis was standing at 1,3%. Building permits preliminary for March were at the level of 1.482M a bit higher from market estimate of 1,45M. Building permits were by 1,6% higher on a monthly basis.
The major event during the previous week was the ECB meeting and decision on facility rate. For one more time the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In an after the meeting press conference, the SCB President Lagarde expressed some urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions as well as increased disinflationary pressures. The wholesale prices in Germany dropped by -0,2% in March, leading to an increase of 1,3% on a yearly basis. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April in Germany reached the level of -14,0, which was significantly below estimated 9,5. The Inflation rate in the Euro Zone final for March was standing at 0,6%, a bit higher from previous 0,4%, but in line with market expectations. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in march was at the level of 2,2%. The Producers Price Index in Germany in March was -0,2% for the year and -0,7% for the month. Both figures were well below market estimates.
Friday, April 11th, was the critical day from the point of technical analysis, considering that the market pushed the eurusd toward the long term resistance line at 1,14. As expected, the market used the previous week to test this level. The moving range of the currency pair was between 1,1273 and 1,1406. Evidently, at this point of time there was no strength to cross the 1,14 level. The RSI continues to move at the highly overbought market side, above the level of 70. Interesting development occurred with MA lines, where MA 50 crossed the MA 200 from the downside. This formation in technical analysis is called the golden-cross, indicating high potential for a trend reversal, in this case, in the favour of the euro.
The week ahead will start slowly, considering Easter holidays on the Western markets. At the same time, there is no currently important news scheduled for a release. The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April is set for a release, however, the market is not expecting to see some significant change from the previous post. In this sense, there is a higher probability of a relaxation in the eurusd currency pair. The 1,14 level could be shortly tested again, while on the downside, there is equal probability that the 1,12 support level could be tested again.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in Germany in April,
USD: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April, Durable Goods Orders in March, Existing Home Sales in March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April.
DeGRAM | EURUSD Breaks the Downward Wedge📊 Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades in a rising channel, holding support.
- Price broke out of a falling wedge and retested 1.1350, confirming bullish momentum.
- Resistance lies at 1.1500–1.1550.
✨ Summary
Confirmed wedge breakout support EUR/USD growth. Above 1.1350, targets: 1.1500–1.1550 and 1.1650–1.1840 medium term.
-------------------
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OIL – Bearish Setup at FVG + Golden Pocket ConfluenceThis 4H chart of Crude Oil Futures highlights a clean bearish setup forming as price approaches a confluence zone of imbalance and premium pricing. After a sharp downward move, the current rally appears to be a retracement into areas of interest for potential distribution.
---
1. Context & Market Structure:
- The market experienced a significant bearish move, breaking multiple support levels with conviction.
- Price is currently retracing upward, creating the possibility of a lower high in line with bearish market structure.
- The ongoing move looks corrective, setting up a potential return to the dominant trend.
---
2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) & Key Supply Zones:
- Two FVGs are identified on the chart — both marked as areas where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficiencies behind.
- The lower FVG overlaps with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci golden pocket zone, providing a strong confluence for potential rejection.
- The upper FVG aligns with the 0.786 level, representing deeper premium pricing and added confluence for distribution.
---
3. Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
- 0.618–0.65 zone: Coincides with the lower FVG — this is the first area to watch for rejection.
- 0.786 level: Aligns with the upper FVG, making it an extended zone for bearish entries if price pushes higher.
- These Fibonacci levels serve as key retracement zones within the context of bearish continuation.
---
4. Anticipated Move:
- The red arrow illustrates the projected path: price reaching into the FVG and golden pocket confluence, then rejecting to the downside.
- The inefficiencies above act as supply zones where institutional selling may occur.
- The lower purple level (0.28) is a potential magnet for price if the retracement completes and bearish momentum resumes.
---
5. Trade Idea Narrative:
- This is a classic bearish setup where price retraces into premium and inefficiency zones during a downtrend.
- The ideal reaction would involve a shift in lower timeframe structure once the price hits the golden pocket + FVG zone.
- Patience and confirmation are key — watching for rejection patterns or breakdowns within the FVG before commitment.
---
Summary:
Crude Oil is retracing after a sharp drop and is approaching a high-probability reversal zone, where a Fair Value Gap overlaps with the golden pocket. This setup provides a strong narrative for potential bearish continuation, supported by structure, imbalance, and Fibonacci confluence.
GBP/USD in terminal phase? This zone could flip everything!📊 Technical Analysis
Price is currently trading in a strong weekly/monthly resistance zone around 1.3390–1.3400, marked by a dense multi-layer supply area. Historically, this level has caused sharp rejections.
From the lows, price completed a steep bullish leg, breaking through several structures. However:
Momentum seems overstretched.
RSI shows potential overbought signals.
There's a likely bearish target zone between 1.2950 and 1.2850, which is a key demand area.
📌 Trade Setup:
I’m watching for exhaustion signals or bearish confirmations on H1 to short from the current resistance, targeting the grey and turquoise zones below 1.30.
🧾 COT Report – GBP
Large Speculators (Asset Managers) still hold a net short position, although they've reduced exposure in recent months.
Leverage Funds remain slightly long, but without strong conviction.
💵 COT Report – USD
Leverage Funds have turned significantly net long on the dollar (strong green line upward since March).
This supports a bearish view on GBP/USD, as USD strength returns.
📉 Summary:
Price is at a key decision zone. A technical correction is possible. COT data supports this view:
GBP remains weak on the institutional side.
USD is regaining strength.
Bullish Pennant Confirms Breakout: Momentum Builds Toward 1.19The pair has formed a textbook bullish pennant on the 4-hour timeframe following a sharp impulsive move upward. Price action consolidated within a narrowing triangle, signaling accumulation before the next leg higher.
The breakout above the pennant’s resistance suggests continuation of the uptrend, with projected Fibonacci targets at:
1.1781 (1.272 extension)
1.1940 (1.414 extension)
Volume behavior confirms the pattern: declining during the consolidation phase and increasing at the breakout, supporting a strong bullish bias.
Fundamental backdrop:
-The US Dollar faces pressure as markets increasingly price in a potential Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025.
-The ECB maintains a more hawkish stance, reinforcing euro strength relative to USD.
-Eurozone economic data shows signs of inflation stabilization, while US CPI readings remain mixed.
-Capital rotation favors major currencies with resilient monetary policies and macroeconomic stability.
As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1476, the bullish scenario remains intact. A move toward 1.1781 and 1.1940 appears likely. A breakdown below 1.1237 would invalidate the pennant and shift momentum toward support retests.
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.1530, aligning with the 127.2% Fibo extension.
Our take profit will be at 1.1426, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1624, above the 161.8% Fibo extension.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bearish reversal for the Fiber?The price is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1532
1st Support: 1.1198
1st Resistance: 1.1710
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1524
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.1667
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.1201
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
How Smart Money is Positioning in EUR/USD – 5 Scenarios UnfoldedLiquidity Maps & Trap Zones: EUR/USD 1H Breakdown
EUR/USD SMC Analysis – Scenarios Overview
1. Case 1 – Immediate Pump:
The market may pump directly from the current market price (CMP) and take out the external range liquidity resting above the current highs.
2. Case 2 – 15-Min Demand Reaction:
The market could react to the 15-minute demand zone , showing a bullish response and pushing higher toward the 1H supply zone .
3. Case 3 – Inducement & Distribution:
Combined with Case 2, the market may first mitigate the 15-minute demand , then take out the inducement (IdM ) near the 1H supply zone . From there, distribution may begin within that supply range, leading to a drop toward the discount zone .
This would likely involve a fake breakout to the upside (liquidity sweep), trapping buyers and hitting the stop-losses of early sellers before reversing sharply.
4. Case 4 – 1H CHoCH and Triangle Breakdown:
A Change of Character (CHoCH) may occur on the 1H timeframe directly from the current price, leading to a downside move. This scenario would also break the rising triangle pattern , triggering entries from price action traders and increasing market volatility as liquidity accelerates the move downward.
5. Case 5 – 1H Supply Rejection & Free Fall:
The market may react from the 1H supply zone and reject aggressively, resulting in a free fall all the way down to the previous CHoCH level , confirming strong bearish intent from premium to discount.
Thanks for your time..
Week of 4/20/25: EURUSD AnalysisEU had a crazy week of consolidation last week and it was best to stay out until structure was clearer and had a direction.
My direction this week is bullish since all structure is bullish and we are starting to see that demand is in control. If it isn't, expect the lower level 4H POI to be mitigated and then continue the bull run.
Major News:
PMI - Wednesday
Unemployment - Thursday
Thanks for coming, hope you guys have a great week!
Weekly FOREX Forecast: Buy EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD vs USDThis is the FOREX outlook for the week of April 21 - 25th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
Not a lot of movement last week, as price traded in a small range. May see more of the same this coming week, as there are no major news events planned. The USD is still weak, and there may be opportunities to buy against it in the EUR, GBP, AID, NZD, CAD, CHF, AND JPY.
Wait for good confirmation before taking valid buy setups!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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EUR/NZD About to Explode? Traders Are Watching THIS Level!📊 General Analysis of EUR/NZD (Higher Timeframe)
1. 📌 Price Context
The price had a strong bounce from a demand zone (highlighted in light blue) around 1.85.
It then broke through multiple supply zones (gray and maroon) to the upside and is currently hovering near 1.91874.
🔍 Key Zones
🔵 Demand Zone (Support)
Range: 1.8430 – 1.8712
This zone has been tested multiple times, with long wicks to the downside → indicating strong buying interest.
A powerful bullish move originated from this area.
🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance)
Current resistance: 1.9187 – 1.9450
This is where the price is currently paused → potential rejection area.
Monthly upper zone (1M): 1.96 – 2.00
A strong long-term resistance. If reached, we might see profit-taking or even a reversal.
🕯️ Candles & Momentum
The large green candle represents a strong bullish breakout.
The weekly candle (labeled "1W") shows indecision → this could be a pause before continuation or the beginning of a pullback.
🔮 Possible Future Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
If the price decisively breaks above 1.9187, the next target is 1.9600 – 2.0000.
⚠️ Bearish Scenario
If price gets rejected at current levels, it may fall back into the support zone 1.8712 – 1.8500, which has previously shown strength.
📈 Lower Indicator (Likely RSI or Wavetrend)
Currently bouncing from an oversold area.
No clear overbought signals → there’s room for more upside.
🧭 Conclusion
Current trend: Bullish (especially in the short to mid term).
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 1.9187 and 1.96–2.00
Support: 1.8712 and 1.85