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Eurusd-3

EUR/USD Bearish Setup: QM + Breakout Play Targeting Demand Zone!Hello guys! I think eurusd is bearish! why? A Range: Market consolidated in a tight horizontal range before breaking out. QM Pattern: A lower high and lower low structure indicates potential for a trend reversal. Neckline Break: Bearish confirmation with a strong break and close below neckline support. Retest Zone: Price is now revisiting the QM supply zone, offering a high-probability short setup. Bearish Projection: The next expected move is a drop toward the S&D (Support & Demand) zone between 1.12640 and 1.11900, which aligns with historical demand and previous accumulation. ________________________ 🎯 Bearish Target Zone: First TP: 1.12640 Final TP: 1.11900 - 1.12080 (Demand Zone)
Short
by melikatrader94
23
Why Gold Is Pulling Back Now – May 2025 Update⚡️After surging above $3,500/oz in late April, gold has since declined over 8%, recently breaking below key levels and now trading near $3,210. The retracement reflects fading panic buying and growing attention to fundamental drivers: U.S. monetary policy, the strong dollar, easing geopolitical risks, and completed trade agreements. Here’s a breakdown of the leading catalysts and their current impact (ranked 0–10). 1. Fed “Higher for Longer” Bias Strength: 9/10 The Fed kept interest rates at 4.25–4.50% at its June policy meeting and reiterated its cautious stance. The absence of cuts combined with persistent inflation pressure is lifting real yields and undercutting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. 2. U.S. Dollar Resurgence Strength: 8/10The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 101 as investors digest the Fed’s hawkish tone. A stronger dollar reduces global gold demand, especially from non-USD buyers. 3. U.S.–China Trade Agreement Reached in Switzerland Strength: 7.5/10 A formal trade deal was announced in Geneva in May, easing longstanding tariff tensions. While specific tariff rollback details are pending, markets welcomed the de-escalation, pushing investors away from gold and into risk assets. 4. U.S.–U.K. Trade Deal Signed Strength: 7/10 The U.S. and U.K. finalized a bilateral trade agreement in early May, boosting global sentiment and further reducing the geopolitical premium priced into gold. 5. India–Pakistan Border De-escalation Strength: 6.5/10 After brief clashes in Kashmir in mid-May, both sides have since released statements of restraint. The calm has helped cap gold’s safe-haven bids. 6. Iran–U.S. Nuclear Talks Update Strength: 6/10 Talks resumed in Vienna in May with cautious optimism. While no concrete deal has been signed, progress and diplomatic language from both sides have eased fears of escalation. 7. Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Developments Strength: 5.5/10 Localized ceasefires in eastern Ukraine, brokered by Turkey and the UN, have lowered near-term geopolitical risk. However, skepticism remains around long-term stability. 8. ETF Inflows & Institutional Demand Strength: 5/10 ETF inflows slowed in May (up just 48.2 tonnes), reflecting waning retail momentum. Still, central bank buying—especially from China—offers a medium-term cushion. Catalyst Strength Rankings (May 2025) 🔸Fed “higher for longer” bias 9 🔸U.S. dollar rebound 8 🔸U.S.–China trade agreement 5.5 🔸U.S.–U.K. trade deal signed 5 🔸India–Pakistan border easing 6.5 🔸Iran–U.S. nuclear diplomacy 6 🔸Russia–Ukraine ceasefire 5.5 🔸Global gold ETF & central-bank inflows 5 Where Next for Gold? ⚡️Current price: ~$3,210/oz 📉Recent support levels broken: $3,300 and $3,250 🎯Next technical floor: $3,150/oz ✨Upside triggers: Renewed dollar weakness, inflation surprise, or geopolitical flare-up Gold’s recent drop reflects the market's rotation out of fear-driven trades into yield-bearing and risk assets. While the Fed and the dollar remain dominant forces, any shock—whether geopolitical or inflationary—could quickly reignite interest in gold as a hedge.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ProjectSyndicate
15
EURUSD Selloff Hits Key Support — Hold or Fail?Following Bessent’s announcement on China, EURUSD extended its decline into this week. Now, the long-term trendline that began in 2008 is being retested. Downward pressure remains high, and the retreat may continue today. However, the former supply zone at 1.1050–1.11 could provide significant support, especially with the help of the long-term trendline. Bessent stated that for 90 days, U.S. tariffs on China will be reduced from 145% to 30%, and China will lower tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. While the market had expected some positive developments, this move went far beyond those expectations. As a result, momentum currently favors EURUSD bears. If the support zone fails, bearish momentum could accelerate, targeting the 1.07 area in the coming weeks. However, as long as the support holds, bears should proceed with caution.
by ftdsystem
4
DeGRAM | EURUSD retest of the support level📊 Technical Analysis ● Price is testing the confluence of the blue corrective channel floor, the long‑term rising‑channel base and the 1.11 support, replicating April’s launch point. ● A close above the blue channel roof (~1.127) would confirm a break and target the mid‑channel 1.134 resistance, then the supply zone / upper rail near 1.140; bias is invalidated on a sustained close below 1.11. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● US initial claims jumped to 252 k (5‑week high) while two FOMC voters signalled readiness to cut if labour softens, pressuring yields and the USD. ● ECB’s Lane said inflation is “on track” but emphasised data‑dependence beyond June, tempering easing expectations and underpinning euro rates. ✨ Summary Channel‑base retest + weaker US data versus cautious ECB keep the short‑term long in play: objectives 1.134 → 1.140, cut if < 1.11. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
1
EURUSD - double scenario So I develop a strategy on 6E1! that I post to you. I identified a H&S that seems to have broken the neck with a bearish retest in the area of ​​1.14. Theoretically the daily left shoulder volumes are "decreasing" confirming a potential bearish H&S structure, furthermore we are under the POC bullish leg that was touched with the retest, the short scenario should be confirmed with the break of the micro support (under the retest candle) going to confirm a hypothesis of an ABC retracement of Elliott after an impulse with a target around 1.10, the POC area of ​​the previous accumulation phase. The long scenario instead is more attributable to a triangle pattern with volume compression, any overcoming of the POC and the first resistance area around 1.14 with the break of the descending line should confirm this scenario with a potential target in the upper POC area around 1.20... Thank you in advance for any contribution to this analysis.
CME:6E1!Short
by flyhorse
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 12, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is retreating from the gains made in the previous session, trading near 1.12400 in Monday's Asian session. The Euro (EUR) has been under pressure since European Central Bank (ECB) official Olli Rehn said last week that the ECB may consider cutting interest rates at its next meeting, provided that upcoming forecasts confirm a continued trend of disinflation and slowing economic growth. Despite this, EUR/USD found some support thanks to optimism surrounding the trade talks between the US and China that took place in Geneva. Both sides reported “substantial progress” after two days of talks aimed at de-escalating the ongoing trade dispute. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called the talks an “important first step” in stabilizing bilateral relations, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed his sentiment, noting significant progress. Markets are now awaiting Washington's response to the European Commission's proposed countermeasures against U.S. tariffs. On Thursday, the Commission launched a public consultation that outlined potential tariffs on up to 95 billion euros worth of imports from the U.S. if trade talks break down. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have noted the risk of stagflation, and Fed Chairman Michael Barr has warned that higher tariffs could disrupt supply chains, leading to higher inflation, lower growth and higher unemployment. Investors remain cautious as further escalation of trade tensions could pose serious problems for the US economy. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.12300, SL 1.11900, TP 1.13000
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USD/CAD: The US Dollar in a Trap! Ready for a Rebound?Technical Overview: The monthly chart of USD/CAD shows a weakening phase of the US dollar against the Canadian dollar. Currently, the price is located at a key support zone around 1.3800. The RSI suggests a potential technical rebound, but the bearish structure remains intact until the resistance at 1.4000 is broken. Seasonality: According to seasonal trend data, the month of May historically shows a slightly positive trend for USD/CAD: 20 years: +0.0017 15 years: -0.0027 10 years: +0.0014 5 years: +0.0039 2 years: -0.0020 This trend highlights a historical short-term weakness (2 years), while over longer periods, the movement is marginally positive. COT Report: COT data shows an increase in long positions on the dollar (+2,158 contracts), while short positions also increased (+2,817 contracts). This suggests uncertainty among institutional traders, with a slight inclination towards short positions. Market Sentiment: Data indicates that 65% of retail traders are short on USD/CAD, while only 35% are long. This could signal a potential squeeze if the price breaks above resistance levels. Operational Conclusion: Considering the bearish pressure and technical structure, a prudent strategy could include: Long Entry: Above 1.4000 with confirmation on lower timeframes. Stop Loss: Below 1.3800 to minimize exposure to false breakouts. Primary Target: 1.4200, then 1.4400. Alternative Strategy: If the price rejects the 1.4000 resistance, consider shorting towards 1.3700.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
3
EURUSD TechnicalsFalling wedge pattern on the EUR/USD 4-hour timeframe. # Typically a bullish reversal or continuation pattern. # Both support and resistance lines are sloping downward and converging. # Often declines during the formation, which aligns with what’s visible here. 📈 Implications: Bullish Bias: A breakout above the upper resistance trendline usually signals a reversal to the upside. Confirmation: Wait for a breakout with volume to confirm the pattern. False breakouts can happen. Target: The initial target after a breakout is often the height of the wedge projected upward from the breakout point. RSI: Currently near oversold levels (~36), suggesting potential upward momentum. ✅ What to Watch For: Breakout above the upper trendline with a bullish candle and increased volume. A retest of the broken trendline (now support) for a more conservative entry.
Long
by xxChartWhizxx
My thoughts on EUR/USDSince January 31st, EUR/USD had been in a bullish trend--a bullish channel in the 4H and 1D. I knew we were about to break out of this bullish trend. I had been anticipating a very strong reversal for a while, given we recently retested the top of another stronger Trendline. A much more reliable channel. the channel I speak of is the 3M, 1M and 1W timeframe channels, they are bearish. We once again hit the resistance of this monthly channel, while, at the same time being in a bullish trend in the 4H and 1D timeframes. So obviously I presumed the 4H bullish trend would end and reverse-which it has and did. This monthly bearish channel has been active for 14-17 years and has perfectly retested the support and resistances numerous times--making it a valid A+ setup in my book. To further this, on the 4H-1D timeframes, while we were still inside this 4H bullish channel, we saw a perfect Head and Shoulders pattern and quickly got our confirmation when it crossed the neckline. All of this indicates we will see strong selling pressure very soon. So, where are we headed exactly? Well we know that we have FVGs and strong Supports. key areas for TPs are 1.09, 1.06, and on the monthly as low as 0.82. If you guys have any questions feel free to ask. And share your thoughts and opinions on EUR/USD--thanks :) Example Short Orders SL 1.137 Limit order 1.255 TP1 1.09 TP2 1.06 TP3 1.02 TP4 0.82 (Maybe i am wrong, but if I am it will be the first time in 17 years for EUR/USD.. I like the odds) OANDA:EURUSD
Short
by SethGoforth
4
EUR/USD — Smart Money Concept (SMC) AnalysisStrategy Framework: SMC (CHOCH, POI, Supply/Demand Zones) --- Key Concepts on Chart CHOCH (Change of Character) Confirmed bullish CHOCH from higher timeframe demand zone (orange). Signals intent of bullish reversal. ✅ Strong Demand Zone (Yellow Box) H4 demand zone holds — price swept liquidity below recent swing low and respected demand. ✅ Target Supply Zones (Marked in Yellow) 1st target: 1.1450 – 1.1500 2nd target: 1.1550 (High timeframe supply) ✅ Elliott Wave Context Wave (4) completion + bullish impulse toward Wave (5) continuation possible — aligning with SMC bias. Entry Idea: > Long after confirmed CHOCH & mitigation of minor demand zone (~1.1240 – 1.1260) Target 1: > 1.1420–1.1450 Supply Zone Target 2: > 1.1500–1.1550 Higher Supply Zone Invalidation (Stop Loss): > Below major demand (
Long
by Greenfireforex
EURUSD Will Explode! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1278 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market. Target - 1.1344 Recommended Stop Loss - 1.1236 About Used Indicators: Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Long
by AnabelSignals
1
XAU/USD: Gold Regains Strength After Pullback – New Highs Ahead?By analyzing the gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that yesterday, as expected, gold surged above $3400, reaching as high as $3439 before facing strong selling pressure, dropping sharply to $3359. Currently, gold is trading around $3385, and if the price can hold above $3366, we may expect further bullish momentum. I believe gold is setting up for another move above $3400, potentially aiming to break into new highs once again. THE LATEST ANALYSIS : Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by ArmanShabanTrading
53
BTC – One last pushmarket context and structure This BTCUSDT 4-hour chart from BYBIT provides a broader perspective on BTC’s ongoing uptrend, emphasizing the role of fair value gaps in guiding price behavior. After a prolonged period of sideways action and consolidation, BTC initiates a sharp bullish impulse that breaks previous structure and introduces fresh momentum into the market. Each leg higher is followed by a corrective phase, during which multiple fair value gaps (FVGs) are formed. These FVGs serve as structural inefficiencies left by aggressive buying pressure and outline key zones of interest for future price interaction. fair value gaps and institutional demand The chart identifies three key FVGs that have influenced BTC’s price action. The lowest FVG, created during the initial breakout below the 89,000 zone, is the origin of this current bullish leg and reflects strong institutional involvement. The mid-level FVG, created as BTC pushed through the 94,000–96,000 region, marks another significant shift in order flow. The most recent FVG, created just prior to the most recent impulse, lies just beneath the 98,000 level and represents a more immediate zone of demand. Price is currently trading above this uppermost FVG, indicating that it may act as a reaccumulation zone if price retraces. liquidity dynamics and continuation thesis The projection drawn on the chart suggests a short-term retracement back into the upper FVG before a potential continuation higher. This idea is rooted in the expectation that institutional participants will revisit unfilled orders left within the FVG before driving price upward toward new liquidity pools. The light blue shaded zone indicates the potential target range for this continuation. The market has consistently respected prior FVGs, confirming their role as reliable demand zones and reinforcing the current bullish bias. price behavior and structural clarity BTC’s price action on this timeframe is characterized by impulse–correction cycles with clearly defined inefficiencies. Each impulse leaves behind an FVG, which is either fully or partially mitigated during pullbacks. The most recent bullish leg has created an unmitigated FVG directly beneath current price, suggesting that if a retracement occurs, it is likely to interact with this gap before continuing the upward trajectory. This behavioral pattern of clean imbalances followed by targeted mitigation is a strong indicator of organized institutional involvement in the market. interpretation and tactical insight The chart outlines a strategic approach to navigating BTC’s current bullish structure. Rather than entering impulsively, the analysis encourages waiting for price to retrace into identified imbalance zones where the probability of sustained movement is higher. Fair value gaps provide a roadmap for understanding where price is likely to react and continue. In this case, if BTC revisits the nearest FVG and holds that level, it sets the stage for continuation toward the 101,000–102,000 zone, in line with the drawn projection. The setup remains aligned with smart money trading methodology, where price is guided by liquidity and imbalance mechanics.
Long
by Louigi_24
44
EUR/USD: Bearish Structure Intact — Lower Lows Ahead? (READ)By analyzing the #EURUSD chart on the 3-day timeframe, we can see that the price is currently trading around 1.136. If the price manages to stay below the 1.1414 level, we can expect further downside from this pair. The possible bearish targets are 1.128, 1.11480, and 1.10 respectively. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Short
by ArmanShabanTrading
15
USD/JPY : More Bullish Move Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that the price moved exactly as expected — first correcting down to the 142.5 area, and then rallying strongly to hit the 146.2 target. Currently, this pair is trading around 145.2, and if the price can hold above 145, we can still expect further upside movement on USDJPY. The next potential targets are 148.7 and 150 respectively. This analysis will be updated. The total return of this analysis so far has been over 720 pips! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
4