EURUSD Declines: Resistance at 1.07102 & Trading Opportunity!EURUSD is in a strong downtrend, pressured by EMA lines and a descending triangle pattern, with key resistance at 1.07102. If unable to break above this level, the price may continue to decline towards the support zone below 1.055.
This bearish momentum is fueled by USD strength driven by expectations that the Fed will maintain high interest rates, while weak economic indicators from Europe make the Euro less attractive.
This setup creates a trading opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the downward trend. Investors should closely monitor economic data from the U.S. and Europe to identify optimal entry points and make the most of price movements in this currency pair.
Eurusd-3
EURUSD: False Resistance Break Could Add to DeclineAs expected, EURUSD continues to hit new lows, currently hovering around the 1.062 level.
The Euro's retreat has largely been driven by a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar (USD), pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above 106.00, marking multi-month highs. This surge is fueled by market optimism surrounding the so-called “Trump trade,” with investors betting on potential policies under the upcoming Trump administration.
On higher timeframes, EURUSD is testing a solid support level, which might trigger a corrective move. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, we can clearly observe a downtrend, with the 34 and 89 EMA acting as resistance and continuing to weaken the buying side. Therefore, any strong resistance level is likely to maintain control over the market.
Currently, we are watching for a potential false breakout of the trend resistance, with the aim of consolidation. This consolidation is generally forming within a channel, and if sellers maintain control around the 1.605 - 1.068 area, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, we should expect a decline toward key areas of interest in the medium term.
GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
EURUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce off Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our buy entry at 1.0642, a swing low support.
Our take profit will be at 1.0683, a pullback resistance
The stop loss will be placed below the 127.2% Fibo extesnios
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GBPJPY Analysis And Next Market Move Pair Name = GBPJPY
Timeframe = D1
Analysis = technical + fundamentals
Trend = Bullish
Details :-
GBPJPY is looking to hit this main support level. In this move we can see gain UpTo 500Pips+. But first we will confirm that it has hitted the main support level and getting bounce from this level.
Bullish Targets :-
202.000
203.000
EURUSD - markets are waiting for the CPI!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction to the release of the CPI index today, we can see the supply zone and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The placement of this currency pair in the specified demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it.
According to sources, the United Kingdom and the European Union have decided to intensify their efforts to draft and implement a joint defense treaty in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of close relations with the United States and insisted on deepening EU-U.S. cooperation, particularly in trade. He stated, “If the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on the EU, we have both the authority and the capacity to respond accordingly.”
Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, recently spoke with the newspaper Kleine Zeitung about the possibility of a rate cut in the December meeting. He noted that currently, there is no reason to avoid a rate cut, but this does not mean it will definitely happen.
Holzmann stressed that the final decision will be made after receiving the latest forecasts and economic data in December, adding, “There is currently nothing opposing a rate cut, but that does not mean it will automatically take place.”
In other developments, Japanese investors in September recorded their highest purchase of German government bonds since 2018, while continuing to avoid French bonds due to concerns over France’s financial situation. According to Japan’s balance of payments data, released on Monday, Japanese investors acquired a net 859.6 billion yen ($5.6 billion) of German bonds in September. Japanese funds also sold French government bonds for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest selling streak since 2022.
Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first key U.S. economic data post-election, has garnered market attention. While inflation data has been of lesser significance in recent months, this report may impact trading sentiment, especially if the downward inflation trend faces setbacks. The monthly core inflation rate is expected to come in at around 0.30 percent, while the overall monthly inflation is expected at approximately 0.21 percent. Additionally, core annual inflation is likely to hold steady at 3.3 percent, while the overall annual rate could rise to about 2.6 percent.
In the absence of surprises, today’s report is not expected to trigger significant market reactions; however, any upward surprises may have a larger impact. Currently, there is about a 63 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December.
Barclays Bank now forecasts only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year, a shift from its previous forecast of three such cuts in 2025. This adjustment follows recent developments, including Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has updated its own projections for the Fed’s monetary policies next year, expecting the U.S. central bank to initiate quarterly rate cuts starting in March 2025.
EURUSD Eyes Further Drop Amid Downtrend ContinuationThe EURUSD chart illustrates a bearish outlook. The price has broken below a key support level and is now testing previous support as resistance around the 1.0696 level. This retest, if held, could confirm further downside momentum.
The downtrend channel indicates consistent pressure to the downside, with a recent bounce toward the resistance zone marked in red. If EURUSD maintains below this resistance, it could pave the way for a decline toward the next support zone near 1.0522.
The broader context shows a shift from an uptrend to a strong downtrend, aligning with a potential increase in USD strength and bearish sentiment on the Euro.
EUR/USD Trend: Possible Deep Drop To 1.0650?EUR/USD remains under pressure and fell to 1.0750 after Thursday’s rally. The main reason for the decline is the recovery of the US dollar and the cautious sentiment weighing on the pair as traders digest Trump’s victory and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcements.
I am currently monitoring EUR/USD on the 1-hour time frame and I see clear bearish signs. In particular, after peaking at 1.08260, the price fell sharply, breaking the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 1.07545 and 1.07376. Additionally, the EMA 34 and EMA 89 are pointing to a bearish trend as the short-term moving average (EMA 34) is below the long-term moving average (EMA 89). This is a signal that sellers are in control of the market. If price continues to sustain below the 1.07100 - 1.06830 support zone, I expect the pair to drop to deeper support around 1.0600.
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.07800 back downThis week, my analysis for EU is showing slow movement, as it isn't close to any key Points of Interest (POI). However, after the CPI release, I expect a surge in liquidity, which could lead to a retracement in EU. From there, I’ll be looking to enter sell positions at a supply zone I've marked, which previously caused a break of structure to the downside.
There are two potential supply zones to watch: the 9-hour supply zone or the 2-hour supply zone above it. If price begins to slow down and distributes upward, I’ll be cautious. However, if the price continues to drop, I’ll wait for a new supply zone to form or look to enter buy positions from the 3-hour supply zone, as outlined in Scenario B.
Confluences supporting EU sell positions are:
- Price action has been strongly bearish, aligning with a pro-trend idea.
- The DXY has been bullish, which suggests EU could continue to move down.
- Liquidity remains focused to the downside.
- A potential supply zone is identified, providing a possible selling POI.
P.S. If price breaks structure to the downside, I’ll wait for a retest and then follow the downtrend.
Look out for CPI and remain diligent!
#EURUSD - 12112024I was bullish EURUSD yesterday and it played out well. TBH, it did not hit my buy level but we see how PZ capped the high of the day perfectly as it came down almost 100 pips to our price target and we saw the rebound.
For today, I might be wrong, but I am looking for a possible rebound move up, preferably on a test of new lows. Look at 1.0620 double level to trade and base for a long opportunity to 1.0710
An idea for EUR/USDIt seems that the break of the long-term trend line of the euro was done the other day after the election of Trump as the president of the United States. In this range up to 1.06, we can expect to continue the fall. A position with R:R equal to slightly more than 1. It is not very attractive to enter, but you can think about it!
EUR/USD Decline: How US Political Dynamics Favor a Stronger DollThe EUR/USD currency pair may experience further declines as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed optimism tied to recent developments in American politics. Following substantial electoral gains by the Republicans, a robust agenda focusing on tax reforms and spending cuts is expected to gain traction, bolstering confidence in the USD.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) may contemplate reducing interest rates to nearly zero by 2025 if economic growth stagnates as a result of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.
Current price action indicates that after testing the 1.0800 level, the Euro has sharply dropped, continuing its depreciation against the strengthening USD, which has gained support from the positive sentiment surrounding the Republican victory. The Stochastic indicator clearly shows that the DXY is moving out of oversold territory, suggesting further strength ahead for the Dollar.
Additionally, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an increase in long positions among retail traders, while institutional investors—often referred to as smart money—have begun to reduce their long holdings. This shift may signal a potential downturn ahead for the Euro.
Based on our analysis, we have identified a demand zone between 1.0600 and 1.0450, which merits further examination in a weekly context for a clearer rationale behind this zone.
In summary, the outlook for the Euro and other currencies against the DXY appears bearish in the near term, given the current market dynamics and geopolitical factors at play.
Our previous Forecast with Target 1.0800 Pullback.
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EURUSD: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.06447
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Momentum Below Key PivotEUR/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD price is currently consolidating below the pivot line at 1.0680, showing bearish momentum. If this bearish trend continues, the next movement is likely to test support levels below.
Scenarios:
Bearish Scenario: If the price continues to trade below the pivot line (1.0680) and breaks below the immediate support at 1.0616, it may reach down to the next support at 1.0544. A close below 1.0616 would strengthen this bearish outlook.
Bullish Scenario: For a bullish reversal, the price needs to reclaim and stabilize above the resistance line at 1.0739. This move would suggest a shift towards higher targets, potentially testing 1.0861.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 1.0680
Resistance Levels: 1.0739, 1.0780, 1.0861
Support Levels: 1.0616, 1.0544, 1.0470
Trend Outlook: The bearish scenario is currently more accurate as long as the price remains below the pivot line and support levels are tested.
previous idea:
EURUSD Decline: USD Pressure & U.S. Inflation in Focus!EURUSD is sustaining a strong downtrend after breaking out of the upward channel, currently trading below the 89 and 34 EMA levels, creating significant selling pressure.
A key resistance zone is identified around 1.07263; if this level is not breached, the price may continue to fall further.
This downward momentum is fueled by the strength of the USD, as the Fed is expected to keep interest rates high, while the ECB remains cautious with rate hikes, providing limited support for the Euro.
Investors should closely monitor the upcoming U.S. inflation report, as it will be a critical factor in determining the next direction for EURUSD.
Weekly FOREX Forecast: BUY USD vs EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHf JPYThis is an outlook for the week of Nov 4 - 8th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets: EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF and JPY.
The USD is strong and showing no signs of weakness. This video analyses which of the major pairs are the best markets to look for the best setups for the week ahead.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
EUR/USD: Bears Dominate!The EUR/USD pair remained under bearish pressure for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.0720 during Monday’s Asian trading hours. The pair was weighed down by a stronger US dollar and political uncertainty in Germany.
As seen on the 1-hour chart, the technical outlook favors continued downside momentum, with a potential target towards support around 1.0688. A rejection of the 1.0742 resistance could confirm this bearish move, creating an opportunity for short positions.
EUR/USD: Trump's Fiscal PoliciesThe EUR/USD exchange rate is on a three-day decline, trading around 1.0640. Expected fiscal policies under the Trump administration could negatively impact the European economy, adding downward pressure on the Euro. Continued movement in this direction could push the pair toward its November low of 1.0628, and eventually, the yearly low in April around 1.0601. Pressure on EUR/USD has intensified as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) recently surpassed the 105 mark, supported by expectations of an expansionary U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump. Simultaneously, German 10-year yields have fallen to monthly lows near the 2.30% zone, reflecting a context of Euro weakness. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve recently cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 4.75% and 5.00%. Although inflation is approaching the 2% target and the labor market shows signs of slowing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has taken a cautious stance on December's policy decision, noting that economic uncertainty makes it challenging to provide clear guidance. In Europe, the ECB recently cut the deposit rate to 3.25% but has adopted a cautious approach to future cuts, awaiting upcoming economic data. Meanwhile, the Trump administration may introduce new tariffs on European and Chinese goods and promote expansionary fiscal policies, indirectly supporting inflation and providing the Fed with additional reasons to keep rates steady or pause further cuts. In terms of market positioning, net short positions in the Euro have decreased to 21.6K contracts but remain significant.
Euro struggling to catch a bid | FX ResearchThe euro has been getting slammed of late and is once again standing out as a clear underperformer on this Monday.
There are two drivers behind the weakness worth highlighting.
The first is the uncertain political climate in Germany. The German Chancellor has said he'd be open to moving up a parliamentary confidence vote by several weeks to before Christmas, potentially speeding up an early federal election.
The second driver is the fear around the Trump presidency and the impact tariffs will have on the single currency. The FT reported that Robert Lighthizer could once again be appointed as the U.S. Trade Representative. Lighthizer is viewed as a staunch protectionist, which could translate to aggressive tariffs on imports into the U.S.
As for the rest of the currency market, the dollar has been mostly bid, though some of the risk-correlated FX markets have been finding some offsetting demand as U.S. equities continue to push record highs. For the remainder of the day, all will be quiet on the calendar front with the U.S. bond market closed in observance of Veterans Day.
Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
EURUSD: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.06244
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
EURUSD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 1.0904 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.0862
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Macro Chart The macroeconomic situation forms a favorable background for assets valued in US dollars, with a tendency of their growth There comes a moment of domination of foreign currencies and displacement of the dollar. Shares of European companies will also show strong growth. The euro may have a noticeable impact on economic activity in the region and the structure of expenditures of the population.