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Eurusd-3

GBPJPY UPDATE!!Good day traders, I am back again with an update and this time it's on GBP/JPY. On the 1st of June I posted a setup but I mentioned that I will explain it later because I will be able to make my point clearer and easy to understand. When this setup was posted I had that daily order block in mind, only because I needed to see it revisit the order block for the last time before price could make a run for that internal liquidity resting inside an unfilled FVG(BISI). We can also use that thought as confluence when looking for short term reversals or partial exits. Just by taking a look on the chart I posted again I will put it in the description below, you can see in the sell side of the chart we have a lot of equal lows and ICT teaches us that price looks for relative lows/equal lows and old lows. On the daily TF price is currently inside a bearish order block and what we do not wanna see is price going over the wick of that wick of a candle that was booked on the 29th of May. We are also inside the premium zone of the wick meaning we can expect to run from there to our objectives below. As always my first objective is always the internal liquidity and that is only because that internal liquidity are my LTF | Highs/Lows. On the 4H price is inside a balanced price range again that's in my favour meaning I have to note it. ICT teaches that we always wanna trade towards the direction where all our PD arrays are lining up and in this case, it's in the sellside, I believe we are in the starting phase of ICT's sell model. My name is Teboho Matla but you...you don't know me yet!!
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
Nato and EU meetings could lift EUR/USD further Despite believing the euro is currently overvalued, Bank of America prefers it to the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Bank of America thinks the EUR could be supported leading up to the NATO and EU summits (June 24-27) especially if defense spending is confirmed. German infrastructure spending might also be expected to support the euro. The EUR/USD holds above the 20- and 50-period EMAs at 1.1380–1.1360 and is comfortably above the 200-period EMA. The recent pull-back from 1.14930 has eased momentum slightly. A close above 1.1420 could target 1.1470, then 1.1520. A sustained break below 1.1280 could neutralise the bullish bias.
by BlackBull_Markets
NQ tumbles?Good day traders, I don't know why but I get a bit scared when it comes to analyzing NQ. I always doubt myself with it. On the weekly TF price is trading inside an order block and for the past two weeks price has visited the order block two times. In the two times that price revisited the order block it failed to close above the midpoint indicating the strength of the order block, going into the new week I am going to use the discount zone of the OB+ as my resistance. On the daily TF before I say much, THERE IS A GAP, and price did not trade to it since opening high on the 12th May. That gap is my target and I want to see price go and fill that volume imbalance as ICT calls it. Still on the daily TF...when you read price for past two weeks on NQ, you'll quickly come to a realization that price has been expanding higher since Tuesday 3rd June, but expanding to where?...well liquidity resting above the high of the candle booked on the 29th of May. Now on the 4 hour TF things are opening up and price is becoming clearer and it goes to show the importance of multi time frame analysis. The lows of Tuesday and Thursday make the relative equal lows that are shown on the chart. The internal liquidity shown below is my short term target or TP1. The red triangle represents that 4H inverse FVG and once price is trading below the inverse any movement inside that inverse should show weakness!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
EURUSD: Weekly Overview June 9th 2025Hello Traders, US CPI news is really important and could change the direction of the markets. But I think the Pair would keep its bullish trend for next week too. ********************************************************************* The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones. Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray. You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC. SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings. TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels. ******************************************************************* Role of different zones: GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them. RED: Just Short trades allowed on them. BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them. WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
Long
by AliSignals
Bearish drop?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 1.1406 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 1.1433 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Take profit: 1.1358 Why we like it: There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Short
by VantageMarkets
Skeptic | This Week's Most Profitable Setups: Gold, Forex & SPX!hey, traders, it’s Skeptic ! 😎 Our last watchlist was straight fire, racking up some sweet profits with tons of setups. This week’s looking just as juicy, so stick with me to catch these killer opportunities! 🚖 Welcome to my Weekly Watchlist, where I lay out the markets I’m trading with active triggers—forex pairs, commodities, and CFD indices. No FOMO, no hype, just pure reasoning to keep your trades sharp. Let’s jump in! 📊 DXY (Dollar Index) Let’s kick off with DXY, ‘cause getting this right makes analyzing other indices and pairs a breeze. After multiple failed attempts to break support at 98.8 , it’s still ranging. This is a monthly support, so confirmation of a break needs to come on a monthly or at least weekly chart. Personally, I’m betting it’ll bounce from here. A break above 99.36 gives early confirmation of a rise, but the real deal is breaking resistance at 100 —then you can short USD pairs like EUR/USD . If 98.8 gives way, look for longs, but this monthly zone is tough, so expect some chop! 😬 EURX EURX seems to be in a weak upward channel. A break above 1063 could push us to 1071 . On the flip side, breaking the channel’s midline at 1058 might drag us to the floor or even support at 1049 . So, our EURX game plan is clear. Watchlist Breakdown Let’s hit the watchlist, starting with XAU/USD (Gold ). Triggers here are tricky, but I cloned last week’s downward channel and placed it above—this trick often gives us solid setups. If we bounce off the channel’s floor, a break above resistance at 3340 opens a long. For shorts, I don’t have a trigger yet since the market’s already dumped. If we form a 1-hour range, a break below its floor could trigger a short targeting 3249 or the previous channel’s midline. Now, XAG/USD (Silver) —no triggers this week. Our long trigger from last week’s analysis at 33.68 smashed it, spiking 8%! 🎉 That’s a lock even Bitcoin traders would drool over, but in Skeptic Lab :) Next, EUR/USD. The long trigger is set at a break above resistance at 1.14555 , which lines up with the DXY support break I mentioned. Heads-up: this trade won’t be easy. Reduce risk ‘cause we’re in for a big fight at this level—wild swings and tight stop losses get hunted fast. Stay sharp! 😤 GBP/USD Update My GBP/USD long got stopped out, so let’s break it down. I went long after a resistance break, with crazy uptrend momentum and RSI hitting overbought (which I see as a long confirmation). Everything looked dope except my stop loss placement. The prior move was so sharp that my stop had to be wide, tanking my R/R. It hit the box ceiling target but then dumped, nailing my stop. Lesson? Either jump in before the main momentum or let the move play out and skip it. Mid-move entries with big stops? Recipe for pain... SPX 500 Our SPX 500 long trigger from breaking the box ceiling already fired and seems to have pulled back. My target’s 6128.55 , and my open position has a stop loss below 5952.51. If you missed last week’s trade, a new trigger could be a 1-hour resistance break at 6014.20 . If you’re already long, no need to double up. Final Note my max risk per trade is 1%, and I suggest you stick to that or lower. I’m cooking up a Money management guide soon, diving deep into why it’s the key to outpacing 90% of traders and boosting your odds of consistent profits. Stay tuned! 🚨 No FOMO, and have an awesome week! 💬 Let’s Talk! If this watchlist lit a spark, hit that boost—it means a ton! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to tackle? Drop it in the comments. Thanks for rolling with me—keep trading smart! ✌️
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
1
Economic data in the eurozone was mixed.The EUR/USD trended higher in a volatile fashion this week, gaining 0.41% on a weekly basis. It briefly reached a six-week high of 1.1495 on Thursday but retreated to 1.1395 on Friday due to a stronger US dollar. Nevertheless, the euro showed overall robust performance during the week. Analysts were not surprised by the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate cut, but they remained cautious about the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy. Although the ECB believes trade tensions have eased, analysts argue that the eurozone has not fully escaped risks. If future economic data continues to be weak, the euro may face downward pressure. Humans need to breathe, and perfect trading is like breathing—maintaining flexibility without needing to trade every market swing. The secret to profitable trading lies in implementing simple rules: repeating simple tasks consistently and enforcing them strictly over the long term.
Short
by Ashbur
Bitcoin plummets!!Good day traders, I am back with yet another update on BTC/USD. My last update on bitcoin what I was expecting price to do unfortunately did not happen as price was very weak, I had a FVG(SIBI) that I really wanted price to revisit and the two price levels that make up the SIBI are 107752 and 107149. Now that both our sellside liquidity were taken does that mean price is now gonna look for the buyside liquidity? My honest opinion is I don't think because I said 97k is insight and I believe it can still happen and it will according to my HTF perspective. On the daily TF we have clear sight of relative highs that we wanna see price take and that might happen today but my short term objective is the high that was booked on Tuesday. That Tuesday's candlestick has a very large wick and from my time learning with ICT's content, wicks contain a lot of price data that can be used either for entries or exits. 4H- Here we had a shift in market structure lower on Thursday but price has been bullish ever since the shift happened. On this respective TF we have equal highs too, and ICT teaches us to always focus our attention on them mainly because price looks for liquidity and imbalances on the 4 hour TF...should we look closely on the left of our screens or chart, there is an order block from the wick I mentioned above. Again what are the rules of an order block?.. FROM TOMORROW PRICE WILL START TO PLUMMET!!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
EUR/USD Analysis – Possible Scenarios🔹 Price is currently trading around 1.1421, consolidating between key supply and demand zones. 🔴 Supply Zone (Order Block 1H): 1.14360 – 1.14590 📌 Strong bearish reaction from this resistance area. First scenario: rejection from this OB and a move downward. 🔵 Demand Zone (Order Block 4H): 1.13050 – 1.13430 ✅ If price fails to break the resistance, we could see a retracement to this OB. Bullish reaction here may offer long opportunities. 🟢 Fair Value Gap (FVG 1H): 1.11800 – 1.12220 📉 If OB 4H fails to hold, price could drop into this FVG area – a high-liquidity zone for potential reversal. 📊 Possible Scenarios: 1️⃣ Break and hold above OB 1H → price may extend toward next OB zone at 1.15150 – 1.15400 2️⃣ Rejection from OB 1H → pullback to OB 4H → possible long setup if confirmed 3️⃣ Break below OB 4H → deeper move into FVG 1H ‼️ Avoid premature entries – wait for valid confirmations. 🔍 Insight by ProfitaminFX If this outlook aligns with your bias, or if you see it differently, feel free to share your perspective in the comments. Let’s grow together 📈
by ProfitaminFX
EURUSD: heading toward double-top?The jobs data were in the spotlight of the US market during the previous week. The JOLTs job openings in April reached 7,391M, a bit hotter from market forecast of 7,10M. The Non-farm Payrolls in May added 139K new jobs, which was modestly higher from the forecasted 130K. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in May at the level of 4,2%. The average hourly earnings were higher by 0,4% for the month and 3,9% for the year. As for other posted data, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for May was standing at 48,5, modestly below market estimate of 49,5. The ISM Services in May were standing at 49,9, lower from estimated 52,3. Previous week on the European market was marked with an eighth rate cut by 25bps, bringing the reference rate to 2%. Potential further rate cuts will continue to be data-driven. The ECB also cut its inflation forecast till the end of this year to 2%, from 2,3% forecasted previously. At the same time, the posted flash inflation rate in the Euro Zone in May is 1,9% on a yearly basis, which was below market estimate of 2%. The core inflation continues to be a bit elevated, standing at the level of 2,3% y/y in May. EuroZone inflation in May was 0% compared to the previous month. The Producers Price Index in the Euro Zone in May was down by -2,2% for the month, and 0,7% on a yearly basis. The balance of trade in Germany in April had a surplus of euro 14B, which was significantly lower from estimated euro 20,2B. During the previous week the currency pair was moving relatively slowly, within a short range. Fundamentals were shaping the investors sentiment. One one side, the ECB new cut of reference rates, while on the other side were relatively stable jobs data for the US market. The eurusd spent the previous week in a range between 1,1340 and 1,1450. There was a short move toward the 1,1490 on Thursday, but the market was not willing to test the 1,15 level on this occasion. Based on moves, the market is still not ready to move away from 1,14 lines. The RSI continues to move above the level of 50, indicating again that the market is not ready to take the path toward the oversold market side. The MA50 continues to diverge from its MA200 counterpart, without an indication of a potential change of course in the coming period. The week ahead is bringing US inflation data for May as well as inflation expectations from the University of Michigan survey. In case of some negative movements in this segment, the market reaction might be triggered. In this case it could be expected further weakening of the US Dollar against Euro, and a trigger for testing of the 1,15 level. Highs from April this year at 1,1570 might easily become the market target. However, if May inflation holds at levels expected by the market, which could be the most likely scenario, then some short term straightening of US Dollar might take place. The first stop would certainly be the 1,14 level, while the next one stands at 1,1275. It is interesting to mention higher potential for double top formation in the technical analysis, which eurusd is currently modestly forming. In case that the double top is triggered in the coming week or two, then the next level for eurusd could be 1,12 level, where highs from September 2024 stands. However, this scenario, if it occurs, could be revealed within the next few weeks. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: Industrial Production in April in the EuroZone, final inflation rate in May for Germany USD: Inflation rate in May, Producers Price Index in May, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for June.
by XBTFX
6
Euro will correct a little and then continue to move up nextHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing this chart, we can see how the price entered to upward channel, where it at once dropped from the resistance line to the support line and then started to grow. In a short time price rose to the 1.1210 level, broke it, and even rose a little more, but soon turned around and declined to the support line of the channel. Then the Euro made an upward impulse, and then broke the 1.1210 level one more time and continued to grow inside the channel. Later price reached the resistance line of the channel and then corrected, after which, in a short time rose to the support area, breaking the 1.1400 level. But soon the price turned around and dropped to the 1.1210 level, thereby exiting from channel. Next, Euro continued to grow inside the wedge, where it rose to the current support level and soon broke it. After this, the price rose to the resistance line of the wedge and then corrected, after which it made an upward impulse. Price exited from the wedge, and now I think that the Euro can make a correction, after the rise, and then continue to grow next. That's why I set my TP at 1.1560 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀 Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Long
by LegionQ8
7
GBP/USD Is This the Last Dip Before 1.37?🔹 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (Weekly & Daily Charts) Price has broken above the ascending channel highlighted on the weekly chart. The 1.3545 area is currently acting as dynamic resistance — a weekly close above it is crucial to confirm a breakout. Below, we find a bullish order block (demand zone) around 1.3340 – 1.3280, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level. RSI is neutral, showing no bearish divergence at the moment. 🔹 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercial traders: +823 new longs, +363 new shorts → Neutral to bullish positioning. Commercials remain net short, indicating short-term USD strength potential. EUR FX (inverse proxy for USD): Significant reduction in speculative long positions → Less bullish pressure on the Euro, favoring USD strength. 🔹 3. Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD vs. 33% long. This is a bullish contrarian signal, suggesting potential continuation toward the 1.36–1.37 zone. 🔹 4. Seasonality Historically, June tends to be bearish for GBP/USD over the past 5–10 years. However, the first 10 days of the month often start with bullish momentum before correcting in the second half. 🔹 5. Economic Calendar Today: Construction PMI (GBP), ECB Press Conference (EUR), Unemployment Claims (USD). Tomorrow: High potential volatility across all USD pairs. Watch out — upcoming macro data may strongly impact breakout confirmation. 🔹 6. Operational Outlook Primary Bias: Neutral/Bullish with potential for a technical pullback. 📍 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3545 – 1.3593 (Supply zone + 0.0 fib) Support: 1.3340 – 1.3280 (OB + 0.5/0.618 fib) 🧠 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation: Retest of 1.3340 → long targeting 1.3590 / 1.3680 Confirmation on daily close above 1.3550 🔻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Retracement: Rejection below 1.3550 + USD macro strength → drop toward 1.3280 If that breaks → extended move to 1.3170 / 1.3150
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
Corn at the Cliff Edge: Bearish Breakdown or Smart Money Trap?📉 1. Price Action & Technical Context (Weekly Chart – ZC1!) Price is currently sitting around 439'0, after rejecting the 462'2 supply zone (gray block) and confirming rejection from the macro supply area between 472'6–480'0 (red block). The last four weekly candles show a failed recovery attempt (three green candles trapped between two strong red ones), culminating in a bearish breakout below the intermediate demand zone (445'0–442'0). Now, price is back inside the key demand zone between 439'0–433'4, an area with heavy volume and previous significant lows. 🔍 Technical takeaway: Bearish breakout confirmed. Price is testing the last major weekly support before opening the door toward the yearly lows (~420'0). 📊 2. Commitment of Traders (COT Report – May 27, 2025) Non-Commercials (Speculators): Long: 324,377 (▼ -17,952) Short: 344,710 (▼ -9,171) Net Position: -20,333 → Bearish, but the unwinding of both sides suggests profit-taking. Commercials (Institutions): Long: 766,211 (▲ +12,588) Short: 713,647 (▼ -962) Net Position: +52,564 → Increasing → Institutional accumulation. 🔎 Key observation: Commercials are increasing their net longs, while speculators are reducing exposure. This diverges from price action and may signal institutional accumulation under 440. 📉 3. Net Positioning vs Price (COT Chart) The chart shows a clear decline in speculative longs since March, with a new low this week. Meanwhile, commercials are gradually increasing their long exposure, positioning themselves against the current bearish trend. 💡 Combined view: While price keeps dropping, the "smart money" is accumulating → possible bottom forming, though not yet confirmed technically. 🌾 4. Seasonality June Performance: 20-Year Avg: -4.25% 15-Year Avg: +12.31% 5-Year Avg: +1.15% 2-Year Avg: +28.61% 📈 Seasonal Conclusion: The seasonal bias has turned strongly bullish in the last 2–5 years. June–July is often a rally period for Corn following the late-May bottoms — likely tied to U.S. planting season dynamics.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
4
EUR/USD Reversal Imminent? 5 Powerful ReasonsEUR/USD – Tactical Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key Reversal EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal. 📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D) The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550. Recent price behavior indicates: A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection. A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum. The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high. Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area. 🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning USD Index: Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD. Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation. → USD strength building. EUR Futures: Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737). The net long position in EUR continues to weaken. → Increasing risk of EUR retracement. 📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June. The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks. 📊 4. Retail Sentiment Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50). However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal. → A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality. 🧭 5. Macro Context Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth. U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative. → This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term. ✅ Trading Outlook 📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective) 📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180 📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000 ❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460 🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
USD/CHF Setup Breaking Down: Don’t Get Caught Long This TrapUSD/CHF is currently trading at a critical technical and macro-structural juncture. Price is hovering within the weekly support area between 0.8050 and 0.8200, a zone that has historically triggered significant bullish reactions. However, the latest weekly candle closed below the psychological 0.8200 level, showing a clear rejection of upper resistance and signaling a lack of buying strength on the U.S. dollar side. This weak closure undermines the bullish structure and opens the door for a potential continuation of the downtrend—especially if price breaks below the 0.8150 mark on the daily or H4 timeframe. From a seasonal standpoint, June has historically been a bearish month for USD/CHF. Monthly average returns over the past 20, 15, 10, and 5 years confirm steady downside pressure on the dollar against the Swiss franc. Only the 2-year average shows a slight positive bias, but it remains an outlier against the broader seasonal trend. This supports the idea that the recent weakness is not only technical but also cyclical in nature. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reinforces this bearish view. On the Swiss franc side, commercial traders (typically the most informed and hedging-oriented participants) are heavily net long, while non-commercial traders (speculators) remain significantly net short. This imbalance is often seen around reversal points and may indicate rising CHF strength. On the U.S. dollar side, positioning is far more balanced—the Dollar Index COT shows a neutral stance, with non-commercials slightly net long but without any dominant momentum. This confirms there’s currently no structural strength behind the dollar to justify a meaningful rebound in USD/CHF. Lastly, retail sentiment provides a classic contrarian signal: over 90% of retail traders are long on USD/CHF, with only 10% short. This extreme imbalance typically occurs ahead of bearish breakdowns, as institutional players tend to fade overcrowded retail positions. In conclusion, USD/CHF remains vulnerable to further downside. The weekly price action is weak, seasonal trends are dollar-negative, COT positioning favors CHF strength, and retail sentiment is extremely long-biased. All factors align toward a likely bearish continuation, with technical targets in the 0.8080–0.8050 range. The only alternative scenario would require a strong H4/H1 bullish reaction with a reclaim of 0.8220—but at this stage, that appears unlikely without a major macro catalyst.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: 110k RejectionAfter the powerful rally that began in the last quarter of 2024, Bitcoin is now at a critical market juncture. The price has once again reached the 106,000–110,000 USD zone, an area that already showed strong signs of distribution back in February and March 2025. This isn’t just a typical resistance level—it’s a psychologically loaded zone, marked by previous highs and repeated selling pressure. In May, the monthly candle revealed a clear rejection from this zone: a prominent upper wick and a bearish body, signaling the bulls' struggle to sustain new highs. This behavior suggests the beginning of a profit-taking phase or, more likely, a medium-term consolidation. The picture becomes even more complex when we look at the COT Report dated May 27, 2025. Non-commercial institutional traders—speculative funds, hedge funds, and portfolio managers—have significantly increased their short positions, now exceeding 26,800 contracts. Meanwhile, long positions are hovering around 24,500, resulting in a net bearish exposure. The message is clear: smart money isn’t buying the breakout—it's selling into it. Seasonality analysis reinforces this narrative. Historically, June tends to be a weak month for Bitcoin, often followed by renewed strength in the next quarter. The 2025 seasonal curve has mirrored the bullish pattern of 2021 up to May, but now—consistent with historical patterns—is showing signs of slowing. This supports the idea that the market might need a breather before potentially rallying again in Q3. From a technical standpoint, the key levels are well defined. The 95,000–97,000 USD area is the first dynamic support zone, where the price might find short-term relief. However, the more significant support lies between 82,000 and 85,000 USD—this is the origin of the current rally and aligns with the old breakout structure. A return to this level would represent a healthy and natural correction within a still structurally bullish long-term context. In summary, the current outlook calls for caution. Momentum is fading, seasonality is unfavorable, and institutional players are trimming long exposure while adding to shorts. Until the price can consolidate above 110,500 USD, the dominant scenario remains a corrective pullback, with interim targets at 95k and potential drops toward the 85k zone. However, if the market surprises with a strong weekly close above the highs, it could pave the way for a new leg up toward the 125,000–135,000 USD range—potentially fueled by macro catalysts such as ETF inflows, Fed narratives, or broader adoption.
BINANCE:BTCUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EUR/USD - 4H Analysis - High Probability Trade Setup🔍 Bias: Bullish continuation (Wave 5 setup) 📌 Key Confluences: Wave (4) is retracing into a key demand zone with strong volume support. Price is approaching the 71% Fibonacci retracement, a proven institutional entry level. Ichimoku cloud is holding as dynamic support. Wave (5) projection targets 1.1550–1.1600 zone (Swing Range). 🎯 Trade Idea: Buy EUR/USD between 1.1280 – 1.1320 Stop Loss: Below 1.1220 (invalidates wave count) Take Profit: 1.1550 (1:3+ RR) ⚠️ Risk Note: Confirmation via bullish engulfing candle or volume spike would increase the entry's conviction. This setup offers strong confluence for a wave 5 rally, making it a high-probability long trade toward the upper swing range. Follow along for more setups
Long
by jamesibartram