EURUSD: On the 1 year HL support. Rebound expected.EURUSD turned oversold oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 28.128, MACD = -0.006, ADX = 71.753) as the price even crossed under the 0.618 Fibonacci level and is approaching the HL Zone, the lower level of which started 1 year ago (on the October 3rd 2023 low). The 1D RSI is oversold for the 3rd time since then, which is alone a huge bullish signal. We expect at least a short term rebound to test the 1D MA50 (TP = 1.09800).
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Eurusd-4
EUR/USD calm as Lagarde says disinflation on the right trackThe euro is showing limited movement on Tuesday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0806, down 0.07% on the day. Earlier, the euro fell as low as 1.0800, its lowest level since Aug. 2.
The European Central Bank has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycle and has trimmed 75 basis points this year. The key interest rate has been brought down to 3.25%, its lowest level since February 2023. There is room for further cuts, as the eurozone economy is struggling and inflation has dropped to 1.6%, comfortably below the ECB’s target of 2%.
ECB members are sounding optimistic about deflation, which is necessary for the central bank to continue cutting rates. ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir said on Monday that he expects inflation to drop to the 2% target in 2025. Kazimir said he was “increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing”.
This optimistic view was echoed by ECB President Lagarde on Tuesday. Lagarde reiterated that she expected the inflation target to be reached in 2025 and that the inflation numbers were “relatively reassuring”. Still, Lagarde added a note of caution, saying that services inflation was at 3.9% and the inflation battle was not yet won.
The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in the final two meetings of the year, but by how much? The Fed showed its aggressive side last month when it started its rate-cutting cycle with a jumbo cut of 50 basis points. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that the September rate decision was a “close call” and she expected further rate cuts in order to prevent the labor market from continuing to weaken.
EUR/USD tested resistance at 1.0833 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.0854
1.0793 and 1.0772 are providing support
EURUSD The Target Is UP! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.0807
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 1.0748
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.0902
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Best Level to Short USDCAD TP +260 pips🔸Hello traders, let's review the 8hour chart for USDCAD today. Strong
V-shape recovery in progress off the lows, however sentiment getting
extremely overbought and also we are closing in on heavy overhead supply.
🔸Key mirror S/R detected at 3620, bears will target this level on the
re-test so it's a logical target for the short sellers from overhead resistance.
🔸Recommended strategy for USDCAD traders: focus on short selling high near 3880 price cluster SL fixed at 60 pips TP1 +140 pips TP2 +260 pips final exit at 3620. Expecting rejection from overhead resistance and re-test of
the mirror S/R level at 3620. good luck traders.
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Levels discussed on 22nd October Livestream22nd October
DXY: retracing, testing 103.80 support level, needs to stay above 103.60, to continue uptrend to 104.20.
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6015 SL 20 TP 40
AUDUSD: Stays below 0.67, Sell 0.6680 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Retracing, Look to test and reject trendline, Sell 1.3025 SL 20 TP 50
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.0780 support level or 1.0870 resistance level
USDJPY: Buy 151.15 SL 40 TP 65
USDCHF: Sell 0.8630 SL 10 TP 20
USDCAD: Buy 1.3860 SL 20 TP 60
Gold: Look for retracement possibly to 2715, buy on dip, for 2750 target
EURUSD: Strong Bearish Bias! Sell!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 1.08016
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: (READ DESCRIPTION)EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Momentum in Focus
Pivot Point: 1.0840
The pivot point at 1.0840 acts as a crucial resistance level for the EUR/USD pair. As long as the price remains below this level, a bearish outlook is favored in the near term.
Our Preference: Short Positions
Recommended Trade:
Short positions are preferred as long as the price stays below the 1.0840 pivot. The expectation is for a downward move toward key support levels.
Target Levels for Downside Movement:
First Target: 1.0800
This is the initial support level, where traders may consider taking profits or evaluating a potential further decline.
Second Target: 1.0780
If the first target is breached, the pair could extend its losses toward 1.0780, signaling further downside pressure.
Alternative Scenario: Upside Risks
If the price rises above 1.0840:
Bullish Outlook:
First Target: 1.0855
Second Target: 1.0870
These levels represent potential resistance areas that could be tested in the event of a bullish reversal.
Technical Insights:
Bearish Signal:
As long as the resistance at 1.0840 remains intact, the likelihood of a break below 1.0800 is significant. The downside momentum appears strong, with the price struggling to breach higher resistance levels.
EURUSD Swing longWe've had a nice long downward move on this pair and I think it's about time for a new leg upward. Start to buy this pair around here. As you can see from pervious lows there's no real rush, it tends to wallow before making a a bigger move. DCA / Grid (Mean reversion) entry approach to this trade.
EURUSD Is Trading Under The Pressure Of A Strong DollarHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.08600 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.08600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 22.10.2024Not much has changed since yesterday so will follow the same plan
15m Swing, Internal Bearish
Corrective push to the upside but I don't think it will last. Nearest 15m supply to look for shorts marked on the chart. Looks like price creating more internal liquidity before targeting 15m Swing weak.
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0849
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0869
why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.0810
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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EUR/USD: Watch for the Rebound!EUR/USD began the week on a bearish note, hitting 12-week lows near 1.0800 as the US dollar remains strong, supported by solid economic fundamentals and rising US yields. Key support levels are at 1.0811 and 1.0775, while major resistance is seen at 1.0930 and 1.1040. The macroeconomic backdrop favors the dollar, with the Fed remaining cautious on rate cuts, and the ECB, despite a recent rate cut, facing weak growth and declining inflation. A drop below 1.0800 could accelerate losses, while a recovery above 1.0875 would be the first positive signal.
EURUSD H4 I Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.0775, which is an overlap support that aligns with 161.8% Fibo extension
Our take profit will be at 1.0866, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0720, which is an overlap support level.
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#EURUSD - 22 OctI was wrong on the move for EURUSD yesterday as it sold down to new lows. The buy levels given were good for scalps only as price consolidated within the PZ for some time before the break lower.
I have no strong views for today TBH. I do see Friday's bullish candle as buyers are present. Thus despite yesterday's strong sell down, I see market is trying to find a bottom. 1.0808 is a strong double support, thus could act as a possible bounce level but in view of the bearish price action yesterday, one would need to see the reaction and require a bullish confirmation to do so. 1.0741, the next strong level would be a level I will look for a more probable bottom. On the short side, if EURUSD recover to the top of the PZ 1.0840 and is rejected by it, one could look for short opportunities for a move lower.
The euro lost its upward momentum due to recession fears
Worries about a potential recession in the eurozone, coupled with the ECB's decision to implement further rate cuts, are negatively impacting the sentiment toward the euro. Spain's September CPI (YoY) dropped to 1.5%, marking the lowest since April 2021, while France's CPI (YoY) came in at 1.1%, falling short of the market consensus of 1.2%. Moreover, Germany's ZEW Current Conditions in October plummeted to -86.9, reaching the lowest since May 2020, intensifying concerns about the Eurozone economy.
EURUSD briefly breached the descending channel’s upper bound but failed to hold the upward momentum, falling to 1.0810. If EURUSD maintains a downtrend within the channel, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches the channel’s upper bound again and rises above EMA21, the price could advance toward 1.0940.
EUR/USD lower, ECB’s Kazimir confident in ‘disinflation path’The euro has edged lower on Monday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0838, down 0.24% on the day.
The European Central Bank lowered its key interest rate last week by a 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first back-to-back rate cuts since December 2011. The rate cut was the third time the ECB has lowered rates this year, as it has been aggressive in its rate-cutting cycling, totaling 75 basis points.
The rate statement from last week’s meeting noted that the “disinflationary process is well on track” and that the inflation outlook had improved due to “recent downside surprises” in economic activity. The September inflation report, released just before the rate announcement on Thursday, indicated that inflation dropped to 1.7% y/y, down from 1.8% in August. This was a milestone as it was the first time inflation has dropped below the ECB’s target of 2% since July 2021.
The optimistic stance was reiterated by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who said on Monday that he expects inflation to drop to the 2% target in 2025. Kazimir said he was “increasingly confident that the disinflation path is on a solid footing” which would allow the ECB to continue cutting interest rates.
The ECB remains somewhat cautious, particularly over wage growth and services inflation which have been stubbornly high and are upside risks to the inflation outlook. Still, after three rate cuts this year it’s clear that the direction of the rate path is down and the markets expect the ECB to continue trimming rates right through to March 2025.
EUR/USD has pushed below support at 1.0854 and is testing support at 1.0837. Below, there is support at 1.0808
1.0884 and 1.0900 are the next resistance lines
Why EURUSD is Plummeting and How You Can Take Advantage of ItI am adopting a bearish bias on EUR/USD and will leverage probabilities derived from statistical and historical data to position myself for short trades.
By analyzing past market trends and current economic indicators, I aim to make informed decisions that enhance my trading success.
Key Fundamentals Supporting a Bearish Outlook:
- Interest Rate Differentials: The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to maintain higher interest rates, which strengthens the USD against the EUR, especially as the European Central Bank (ECB) may consider rate cuts in response to economic challenges.
- Economic Performance: Recent economic data indicates that the Eurozone is facing significant headwinds, with disappointing growth figures that negatively impact market sentiment.
- Market Sentiment: Current market sentiment leans bearish towards the euro, with many traders already positioned short. This collective positioning could lead to further downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
These elements provide a solid foundation for my bearish outlook, making it an opportune moment to enter short positions.
1W:
HOURLY ENTRY:
If you require additional clarification, or wish to share your thoughts, don’t hesitate to drop a comment below!
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 1.0865
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 1.0846
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EUR/USD remains rooted in bearish trendThe EUR/USD's brighter start faded as the session wore on, with the US dollar rebounding across the board. Today’s macro calendar has been quite quiet apart from that bigger than expected rate cut by China’s central bank we saw overnight. In fact, there won’t be much in the way of any important scheduled data release until Thursday’s publication of the PMI numbers from the Eurozone and around the world. This should allow the focus to turn to the US presidential election.
In the eurozone, the only notable data release was German PPI, which came in at -1.4% YoY in September, below forecasts of -0.8%. The data points to weak demand and suggests that consumer inflation could fall further, thus allowing more rate cuts by the ECB. This is clearly another piece of data that is negative for the euro.
Later this week, the focus for euro traders is expected to focus on the global PMI data release scheduled for Thursday, October 24. The eurozone's manufacturing sector, which has been in contraction for two years, is of particular concern, and weak PMI figures could place further pressure on the euro.
Additionally, attention is turning toward the US presidential election, where Donald Trump is gaining ground in the polls. A potential Trump victory could further strengthen the US dollar, particularly due to his hawkish stance on tariffs targeting European and Mexican car imports.
Indeed, the Trump trade is already gaining momentum after the latest opinion polls and odds trackers point to an increasing likelihood of him winning the US presidential election. Trump’s protectionist policies should be bad news for the Eurozone as compared to a Harris win. So, if Trump’s odds of success increases over the next couple of weeks, then, assuming everything else being equal, we could see the EUR/USD weaken as a result.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD remains in a bearish trend, with short-term resistance at 1.0870 (200-day moving average) seems to be holding today. Further key resistance levels come in at 1.0900 and 1.0950. On the downside, the August low of 1.0777 is the next bearish target, followed by the 1.0700 handle.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Euro will make move down and then rebound up from wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price declined to mirror line and then started to grow. In a short time, the price broke the 1.1000 level, made a correction to the resistance area, and then continued to move up to the seller zone. When it reached this area, the price soon turned around and dropped to the mirror line. Euro some time traded near this line and then fell to the 1.1000 level, breaking the mirror line. Also then, the price started to trades inside the wedge, where it first rose between the mirror line to the seller zone again. When the Euro reached this area, it turned around and made a downward impulse, thereby breaking 1.1175 and 1.1000 levels, after which made retest and continued to fall to the support line of the wedge. At the moment, the price trades very close to the resistance line of the wedge, so, for this case, I think that the Euro can little decline and then rebound up, thereby exiting from the wedge. For this case, I set my TP at 1.095 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
#EURUSD 1HEUR/USD 1-Hour Chart Analysis:
On the EUR/USD 1-hour chart, the price has reached a key support level, signaling a potential area for a bullish reversal. The market has shown resilience at this level multiple times, indicating strong buying interest from traders.
Forecast:
- **Buy** near the support level, as the price is expected to bounce back from this zone.
- This support level is likely to hold, making it a good entry point for a potential upward movement.
- Watch for bullish price action, such as candlestick patterns or increased buying volume, to confirm the reversal and the continuation of the uptrend.
You can adjust it to match your strategy as needed!