Is EUR/USD oversold? Time to Buy?Is EUR/USD oversold? Time to Buy?
EUR/USD has been experiencing a robust downtrend on the 30-minute chart since 30 September. This bearish movement was triggered after the pair encountered a significant resistance area, forming a double top configuration on the daily chart.
From a 30-minute perspective, EUR/USD has remained on the same side of the 200-period moving average for 710 candles, indicating that the pair may be in an oversold condition and that the downtrend could be maturing. Statistically, most directional movements typically accumulate between 300 and 400 candles on one side of the 200-period moving average.
Shift from Seller to Buyer Interest:
Since the inception of the downtrend, this marks the first instance where EUR/USD has made an upward move that corresponds to the preceding downward move. This development signals a potential shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish and could also be interpreted as a bullish engulfing pattern.
Currently, EUR/USD is situated in the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level on the 30-minute chart, which may serve as a support zone.
Key Levels to Monitor:
The main areas of interest for today are 1.0830 and 1.0850, which have the potential to support the price action. A buying opportunity could materialise if EUR/USD manages to break above 1.0855. Should this occur, it may lead to an upward movement towards the 1.0945 area later this week.
Conversely, an alternative scenario may unfold if EUR/USD breaks below 1.0820, which could prompt a decline towards the 1.0775 region within the week.
Treading Carefully Amidst Potential Changes
In summary, while EUR/USD is currently entrenched in a downtrend, emerging indicators and patterns suggest the possibility of a trend reversal. Traders should remain vigilant around the critical levels mentioned, as these will be pivotal in determining the pair's next movements.
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Eurusd-4
XAU/USD : $2700 Reached, What's Next ? (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that gold has finally managed to break above the $2700 level, just as we anticipated in our previous analysis. Currently, it is consolidating above this level. Note that the $2714 level is a key supply zone (based on important Fibonacci ratios) for gold, which is why the price reacted to it. However, at the moment, gold is trading around $2711, and I still expect further growth from gold unless I see otherwise on the chart, in which case I’ll update you. The next short-term targets for gold are $2727 and $2743.7. Keep an eye on how the price reacts to these levels. Also, the most important support zone for gold is between $2673 and $2688.7.
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EUR/USD (READ DESCRIPTION)Pivot Point: 1.0845
The pivot at 1.0845 serves as a critical support level for the EUR/USD pair. If the price holds above this level, it signals the potential for further upside movement. The technical outlook suggests a bullish bias as long as this support remains intact.
Our Preference: Long Positions
Recommended Trade:
Long positions are preferred as long as the price remains above the pivot at 1.0845. This suggests that the pair could rally to test higher resistance levels.
Target Levels for Upside Movement:
First Target: 1.0880
This level acts as an intermediate resistance, where traders may consider taking profit or assess the strength of the bullish momentum.
Second Target: 1.0900
If the first resistance at 1.0880 is surpassed, the next target is 1.0900, representing a continuation of the bullish trend.
Alternative Scenario: Downside Risks
If the price drops below 1.0845:
A break below this pivot would open the door to a downside move.
Bearish Outlook:
First Target: 1.0825
Second Target: 1.0810
These levels represent potential areas of support in a bearish scenario, indicating further downward movement.
Technical Insights:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI is mixed but holding above its neutral area, signaling a cautious bullish sentiment. If the RSI continues to rise, it could confirm increasing buying interest.
Support Zone Strength:
The 1.0845 level has provided stability, allowing the price to form a base for potential upward movement, increasing the likelihood of a bullish continuation.
Moving Averages:
If EUR/USD rises above key moving averages, such as the 20-period or 50-period, it would provide further confirmation of the bullish scenario. A crossover in these averages may signal a stronger upward trend.
Momentum Indicators:
Indicators like the MACD remain positive, supporting a continuation of the upward momentum. If a bullish crossover occurs, it will likely further solidify the upward trajectory.
EURUSD Bearish Bias with Key Resistance at 1.0915EURUSD
The price is currently below the resistance zone near 1.0915, which has acted as a pivot in recent movements. The pair remains in a downtrend, with previous highs indicating a double-top formation.
If the price fails to break above 1.0915, the downtrend is likely to continue, with potential support around 1.0680.
The demand zone is around 1.0680 and the ascending trendline may provide strong support, potentially leading to a rebound.
Direction:
Bearish: As long as the price remains below 1.0915, the direction favors a continuation towards lower support levels.
Bullish: A break above 1.0915 and sustained stability could signal a shift to bullish momentum, but this remains less likely in the current trend.
For now, the bias remains bearish, targeting the demand zone around 1.0680.
Key levels:
Pivot line: 1.0885
Support Lines: 1.0793, 1.0680, 1.0616
Resistance Lines: 1.0995, 1.1082, 1.1141
Trend Outlook:
Bearish while under 1.0915
Bullish By stability above 1.0915
EURUSD Potential LongAs EURUSD stalls at the immediate demand level talked about in the previously shared idea, our expectation was to see bullish price action print, which was delivered with Friday closing very bullish. While this was expected, it does not appear the buy move is ready as there are still some bears lingering in this market.
With this in mind, my anticipation for this week is to see the Fiber trade above last Thursday's high (1.0874) where we have sell-stops sitting in the interim. Clearing this liquidity should be sufficient in seeing price roll deeper into that demand where we expect to see the bulls take charge for a bit, 1.0808 being the price of interest for buying.
Should price print as predicted, we should have a retracement buy move play into our hands.
See y'all mid-week,GLGT!!
LloydFx
Levels discussed on Livestream 21 October21st October
DXY: needs to stay above 103.40 to continue uptrend to 103.90, beyond that 104.20
NZDUSD: Sell 0.6040 SL 30 TP 60
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6635 SL 20 TP 60
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2950 SL 30 TP 130
EURUSD: Look for reaction at 1.08-1.0780 support level
USDJPY: Buy 150.50 SL 30 TP 120 (Hesitation at 150.90-151)
USDCHF: Buy 0.8680 SL 35 TP 70
USDCAD: Could climb higher, looking for reaction around 1.39
Gold: Look for retracement to complete, then continue uptrend to 2750 (needs to stay above 2700)
EURUSD: Local Correction Ahead! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.08668
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EUR/USD Approaching Key Support LevelEUR/USD Approaching Key Support Level
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates as expected, marking the third reduction this year. According to Trading Economics, market participants speculate there could be another rate cut in December. This dovish stance is weakening the euro, as the ECB signals deteriorating economic prospects in the Eurozone.
In contrast, the U.S. dollar remains strong, supported by:
→ Robust economic data, including retail sales figures that exceeded expectations last week.
→ Expectations that Trump may win the next U.S. election, with his proposed trade and tax policies likely to support the dollar.
As a result, EUR/USD continued its decline last week, with the pair falling by about 2.5% since the start of October. Will the downtrend persist?
Today's technical analysis of the EUR/USD daily chart shows that the pair is approaching a key support line (marked in blue), connecting significant lows from 2023-2024 (highlighted by arrows).
Additional support may come from:
→ The psychological level of 1.0800;
→ A previous significant low near 1.0777.
Thus, the EUR/USD area formed by these lines could present challenges to the developing bearish trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Can EURUSD continue to fall?EUR/USD is currently hovering around 1.0860 after an earlier rally, with stability in the Asian session. Notably, concerns about the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November have been dismissed, as recent data suggests that the US economy is still recovering.
On the 1D chart, we can clearly see that after the price fell out of the uptrend channel and approached the support level of 1.0800, EUR/USD has reversed again. Currently, the price is hovering around 1.0865 and interacting with the 34 and 89 EMAs, combined with resistance at 1.0960. These factors suggest that the downtrend is still in place. My personal prediction is that EUR/USD is likely to continue falling and may hit a lower low around 1.0700 in the near term.
Now the realization phase is taking shape we are waiting for confirmation with the prospect of strengthening the purpose.
EURUSD: in the oversold territoryThe major event for the EU economy was a further decrease of reference interest rates by ECB members. At their meeting, the ECB decided to cut interest rates by another 25 bps, with possibility of another rate cut till the end of this year, due to drop in inflation, and also, decreasing business activity within the EU. The wholesale prices dropped by -0,3% in Germany in September, leading to an annual drop of -1,6%. The industrial production in the Euro Zone was higher by 1,8% in August for the month, bringing the total increase to 0,1% on a yearly basis. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany was standing at 13,1 for October, while the ZEW Economic Conditions were down to -86,9. The Inflation rate in the Euro Zone final for September was 2,7% and in line with a forecast.
The US Retail Sales were up by 0,4% in September for the month. Retail sales excluding autos were higher by 0,5% for the same month. Retail sales increased by 1,7% in September y/y, which was a bit higher from 1,6% forecasted by the market. At the same time, the industrial production in the US was down by -0,6% in September on a yearly basis. Building Permits preliminary for September reached 1.428B, which was down by 2,9% for the month.
Decrease of interest rates by the ECB members, and weakening of inflation in the US, pushed the eurusd currency pair to the lower grounds during the previous week. The currency pair started the previous week around the level of 1,930 and moved to the lowest weekly level at 1,0812. This move represents the continuation of the last three winning weeks for the USD, which moved from levels around 1,12 resistance, down to 1,08 support. Still, Friday's trading session was closed at the level of 1,0871. The RSI clearly entered into the oversold territory, and reverted a bit to the level of 33 as of the end of the week. The moving average of 50 days is further slowing down its divergence from MA200, however, a clear convergence has not yet started. It might take some time in the future, until the cross of two lines occurs.
A clear oversold market side is the first signal that the market exhausted its potential for the downside and that short term reversal might be expected in the coming period. Considering that there is no currently significant macro data scheduled for the week ahead, which could strongly move the market to one side, some stronger moves should not be expected. Current charts are implying the probability for eurusd to revert a bit toward the 1,09 levels, most probably toward the 1,095. There is no current indication for the higher grounds. On the opposite side, there might be just a modest move toward the 1,08 support line, however, charts are pointing to a lower probability of such an occurrence during the week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: PPI in September for Germany, ECB President Lagarde speech, HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for October in Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate for October in Germany,
USD: Home Sales in September, Durable Goods Orders in September, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final in October.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: (READ DESCRIPTION)
Pivot Point: 1.0650
The pivot at 1.0650 serves as a key level of support. This level will play a crucial role in determining the near-term direction of the EUR/USD pair. The current technical setup suggests that the pair could see a significant upward movement if it holds above this pivot.
Our Preference: Long Positions
Recommended Trade:
Long positions are favored as long as the price stays above the pivot point at 1.0650. The expectation is that the pair will move upward, testing higher resistance levels.
Target Levels for Upside Movement:
First Target: 1.1000
This level represents an intermediate resistance where traders might take profit or evaluate the continuation of the bullish momentum.
Second Target: 1.1200
If the first resistance is breached, EUR/USD could extend its gains toward the 1.1200 level, indicating a stronger bullish continuation.
Alternative Scenario: Downside Risks
If the price fails to hold above 1.0650:
Bearish Outlook: A break below the pivot point could lead to a downside move, targeting the following levels:
First Target: 1.0500
Second Target: 1.0450
These levels represent potential areas of support if the bearish scenario unfolds, marking a significant downward trend.
Technical Insights:
RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The RSI has recently landed around the 30% zone, which is often considered oversold. This suggests that selling pressure may be waning, and a reversal to the upside could be in progress. A rising RSI typically confirms growing buying interest.
Support Zone Strength:
The 1.0650 level has acted as a solid support zone in the past, and the price appears to be bouncing off this level, reinforcing the probability of a bullish reversal.
Moving Averages:
Should the pair break above its short-term moving averages, such as the 20-period or 50-period moving averages, it would further confirm the bullish scenario. A crossover of these averages could serve as a signal for an upward trend continuation.
Momentum Indicators:
Momentum indicators like the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) could signal a bullish crossover soon, which would add to the bullish sentiment. The price also remains above key moving averages, providing additional upward pressure.
EURUSD expected to rebound on an oversold 1D RSI.The EURUSD pair made a straight hit on our 1.08350 Target (September 23 idea, see chart below) following the 1.12000 Double Top rejection:
Right now the price sits below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having failed to recover it in the past 2 days. This is however the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Low, which is where the February 14 2024 correction reversed.
At the same time, the 1D RSI turned oversold last Thursday, which is an even bigger bullish indication. For the past 2 years (since September 27 2022), every time the RSI got oversold (below 30.00), it was a very strong buy signal as the price reversed.
On the February 14 Low it reversed to the 0.618 Fib (blue), so currently our minimum target on this buy opportunity is 1.10550.
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EURUSD - Macro View...Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 EURUSD has been overall bullish, trading inside the flat rising channel in blue.
Moreover, it is approaching a demand zone marked in green.
🏹 The highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the demand zone and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 21.10.202415m Swing, Internal,Fractal Bearish
We now have mitigated the premium of the 15m swing structure
What expected is, internal 15m bearish order flow to continue and internal unmitigated supply to hold. Or Asia high get swept and bearish momentum kick in. But we are now in Daily internal unmitigated demand zone and bullish reaction is very likely.
On my analysis from Friday, I said Friday's Daily candle could close as inside bar and that happened. What I now expect is, price to mitigate upper 4H Supply and also 15m Supply nested in 4H Supply, give us another 4H fractal fake bullish break, sweep the low, use as fuel for bullish leg. But as we trade the fact and not the expectations, that is my long plans once HTF switched to Bullish, and I will look for quick shorts once 4H supply mitigated or follow the 15m bearish of once i am convinced.
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 1.0865 an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.0833, an overlap support.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0897, which is an overlap resistance."
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#EURUSD - 21 OctI was bullish EURUSD on Friday, despite the many days of selling in EURUSD and the plan given worked perfectly. I said EURUSD will see a move higher to 1.0863 before any down move would occur. Indeed, EURUSD trended up over 40 pips for the day, closing at 1.0863 as given. And today it hit the strong level at 1.0873. Is sell coming? Is this just a pullback before further downside or will we see further upside?
1.0873 strong level traded could see a pullback, but overall, I am cautiously bullish for another move higher. Look for longs at 1.0837/47 for a move higher, to 1.0900.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot point which is a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support level which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 1.0896
1st Support: 1.0834
1st Resistance: 1.0955
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EU Double Top Breaks Rising Support, 300+ Pip Sell Set-Up!Here I have FX:EURUSD on the Daily Chart!
After last weeks Double Top was Confirmed, we see Price make a Bearish Break to and through the Rising Support created by the April, June and August Lows.
-The Testing Candle alone generates ~500K in Selling Volume making the Rising Support weak enough to then Break Down to where price sits now.
Applying the Fibonacci Retracement Tool from the Higher High @ 1.12138 to the Lower Low @ 1.08107, we can see a couple things:
*23.6% Level sits right at the 200 EMA which is curving down and Price is now trading Below
*38.2% Level sits right in the center of the Resistance Zone created from the March Highs
*50% Level is at the Higher Low that was Broken to Confirm the Double Top
I suspect that Price will need to Retest the Break of Rising Support before it can continue to Push Down!
Potential Set-Up: Sell Entry
1.09058 (23.6%) - 1.09647 (38.2%)
SL - 1.10112 (50%)
TP - 1.0665
EUR/USD Eyeing Key Resistance Zones for BreakoutEUR/USD has been on a steady upward trajectory, supported by a clear trendline that has provided consistent buying interest. The current structure indicates a potential bullish continuation after a brief consolidation or pullback.
The pair is now targeting key resistance levels at 1.09012 and 1.09365. The first challenge for the bulls is breaking through 1.09012, a strong resistance that has been tested previously. A successful breach of this level could lead to a rapid move towards the major resistance at 1.09365.
The chart suggests that any retracement towards the trendline or the dashed horizontal support will likely attract more buyers, offering a high-probability setup for further upside. Should this retracement occur, buyers might seek opportunities near 1.08552 before attempting another push higher.
If the price breaks above 1.09365, we could see a continuation of the broader bullish trend, potentially heading towards 1.1000 or higher. However, failure to maintain the upward momentum around these key resistance levels could lead to a deeper correction.
We should watch for price action around 1.09012 for confirmation of a breakout, while keeping an eye on the trendline as a guide for support.
EUR/USD Pauses After Four-Day Slide as USD Rally EasesThe EUR/USD pair takes a breather on Friday, following a prolonged four-day losing streak, as the US Dollar's (USD) strong rally shows signs of slowing. The Euro attempts to stabilize after a tough week, with the pair hovering slightly higher, supported by a momentary pause in the USD’s upward momentum. Despite this pause, the outlook for the Greenback remains positive, particularly after Thursday’s encouraging US economic data, which continues to reinforce the idea of a resilient American economy.
USD Momentum Eases After Strong Economic Data
The US Dollar has experienced a robust run in recent weeks, driven by a strong economy and expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. However, the rally took a pause on Friday, despite the release of better-than-expected US economic data. September’s Retail Sales increased by 0.4%, surpassing market forecasts, while the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 came in lower than anticipated at 241,000, compared to an expected 260,000. These figures underscored the strength of the US labor market and consumer spending, further bolstering the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining elevated interest rates.
Even though the positive data continues to favor the USD, the currency’s upward trajectory has temporarily slowed, allowing the EUR/USD pair to consolidate after a sharp decline earlier in the week. This pause in the Greenback's rally offers the Euro some relief, though the broader trend remains USD-favorable in the near term.
Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Prepares for a Potential Rebound
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is showing early signs of a potential bullish rebound. The pair has bounced from a critical demand area, suggesting that buying interest is emerging at these lower price levels. Furthermore, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a significant divergence between retail and institutional sentiment. While retail traders remain predominantly bearish, large institutional investors—commonly referred to as "smart money"—have begun to increase their long positions on the Euro. This discrepancy in positioning could signal a reversal in market direction, potentially favoring the Euro in the near term.
Seasonality patterns also support a possible recovery in the EUR/USD, as historical data suggests that the Euro tends to perform well during this period of the year. Taken together, the technical indicators and seasonal trends point toward a possible bullish setup, where traders might look to enter long positions, anticipating further upside movement.
Conclusion: EUR/USD Seeks Stability as USD Rally Temporarily Stalls
The EUR/USD pair has found some much-needed support after several days of losses, as the relentless USD rally slows down following strong US economic data. Despite the positive fundamentals supporting the Greenback, technical indicators hint that the Euro may be on the verge of a recovery. The rebound from key demand levels, coupled with institutional long positioning and supportive seasonality, suggests that the EUR/USD could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders should remain vigilant, as the pair’s next move will depend on evolving market conditions and the upcoming data releases that could further influence the direction of both currencies.
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