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Eurusd-4

EURUSD: False Resistance Break Could Add to DeclineAs expected, EURUSD continues to hit new lows, currently hovering around the 1.062 level. The Euro's retreat has largely been driven by a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar (USD), pushing the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) above 106.00, marking multi-month highs. This surge is fueled by market optimism surrounding the so-called “Trump trade,” with investors betting on potential policies under the upcoming Trump administration. On higher timeframes, EURUSD is testing a solid support level, which might trigger a corrective move. However, on the 4-hour timeframe, we can clearly observe a downtrend, with the 34 and 89 EMA acting as resistance and continuing to weaken the buying side. Therefore, any strong resistance level is likely to maintain control over the market. Currently, we are watching for a potential false breakout of the trend resistance, with the aim of consolidation. This consolidation is generally forming within a channel, and if sellers maintain control around the 1.605 - 1.068 area, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, we should expect a decline toward key areas of interest in the medium term.
Short
by Bentradegold
EURUSD - markets are waiting for the CPI!The EURUSD currency pair is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term descending channel. In case of an upward correction to the release of the CPI index today, we can see the supply zone and sell within those zones with the appropriate risk reward. The placement of this currency pair in the specified demand zone will provide us with the opportunity to buy it. According to sources, the United Kingdom and the European Union have decided to intensify their efforts to draft and implement a joint defense treaty in response to Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz emphasized the importance of close relations with the United States and insisted on deepening EU-U.S. cooperation, particularly in trade. He stated, “If the Trump administration decides to impose tariffs on the EU, we have both the authority and the capacity to respond accordingly.” Robert Holzmann, Governor of the Austrian Central Bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, recently spoke with the newspaper Kleine Zeitung about the possibility of a rate cut in the December meeting. He noted that currently, there is no reason to avoid a rate cut, but this does not mean it will definitely happen. Holzmann stressed that the final decision will be made after receiving the latest forecasts and economic data in December, adding, “There is currently nothing opposing a rate cut, but that does not mean it will automatically take place.” In other developments, Japanese investors in September recorded their highest purchase of German government bonds since 2018, while continuing to avoid French bonds due to concerns over France’s financial situation. According to Japan’s balance of payments data, released on Monday, Japanese investors acquired a net 859.6 billion yen ($5.6 billion) of German bonds in September. Japanese funds also sold French government bonds for the fifth consecutive month, marking the longest selling streak since 2022. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, the first key U.S. economic data post-election, has garnered market attention. While inflation data has been of lesser significance in recent months, this report may impact trading sentiment, especially if the downward inflation trend faces setbacks. The monthly core inflation rate is expected to come in at around 0.30 percent, while the overall monthly inflation is expected at approximately 0.21 percent. Additionally, core annual inflation is likely to hold steady at 3.3 percent, while the overall annual rate could rise to about 2.6 percent. In the absence of surprises, today’s report is not expected to trigger significant market reactions; however, any upward surprises may have a larger impact. Currently, there is about a 63 percent probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. Barclays Bank now forecasts only one 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year, a shift from its previous forecast of three such cuts in 2025. This adjustment follows recent developments, including Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president and the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs has updated its own projections for the Fed’s monetary policies next year, expecting the U.S. central bank to initiate quarterly rate cuts starting in March 2025.
Long
by Ali_PSND
Fundamental Market Analysis for November 13, 2024 EURUSDThe Euro-dollar pair remains under pressure on Wednesday, holding just above the 1.06000 level during Asian trading hours. This will mark the fourth consecutive day of losses for the Euro as the pair continues to experience downward momentum. The main factor contributing to the recent EUR/USD weakness is the strength of the US Dollar (USD). The implementation of US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed fiscal policy could stimulate investment, increase government spending and boost labor demand. However, such a surge in economic activity could also increase inflation risks. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated Tuesday that the central bank remains confident in its fight against transitory inflation, but cautioned that it is too early to declare complete victory. Kashkari also noted that the Fed will refrain from modeling the economic impact of Trump's policies until there is more clarity on the specifics of those policies. Traders are now focused on the upcoming release of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday for further guidance on future U.S. policy. The core consumer price index (CPI) for October is expected to rise 2.6% year-over-year and core CPI is expected to rise 3.3%. According to a recent study by the London School of Economics and Political Science, imposing 10 percent tariffs on all imported goods, as advocated by Trump, could have a 0.1 percent negative impact on European Union (EU) gross domestic product (GDP). This potential slowdown in economic growth in Europe could further reduce the Euro's momentum against the US Dollar. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
gold 5 waves complete now abc correction in progress🔸Hello guys, today let's review 6hour price chart for gold. The 5 wave bullish impulse is complete now we are entering ABC correction. 🔸Wave1 was 2335/2472, Wave2 2472/2372, Wave3 2371/2653, Wave4 2653/2605, Wave5 2605/2770, now ABC correction, currently A in progress 2770/2525. 🔸Recommended strategy for gold traders: higher risk bounce play once A completes and transitions into B bounce, BUY/HOLD 2525 exit at 2678. Lower risk sell side setup: B completes near 2678 short sell into bounce exit at 2383 once C completes into liquidity order block zone. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
11
XAU/USD : More Fall Ahead ? (READ THE CAPTION)We can observe that after reaching $2699 again, gold faced selling pressure and has corrected down to $2659 so far. Considering that both the New York and Canadian markets are closed today, we are likely to see the next significant move tomorrow. Considering the current price trajectory, we need to see how gold reacts if it declines further to the $2649 level. If this level does not hold as support, there is a high likelihood that gold will first hit the $2643 target and then continue dropping to $2630 and $2616. THE MAIN IDEA : Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
18
GOLD: Waiting for the CPI release!After the recent breakdown of the critical $2,600 threshold, Gold (XAU/USD) has regained ground, reclaiming this level despite the persistent strengthening of the US Dollar and rising US Treasury yields. However, technically, XAU/USD shows bearish potential: on the daily chart, the price has dropped further below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is trending downward. Technical indicators, while slowing their descent, remain deep in negative territory, with no clear signs of reversal or interim support. Fundamentally, Gold is hovering near $2,600, awaiting significant US economic data and pressured by the strong demand for the Dollar, bolstered by political tensions in the US and Europe, including the escalating political crisis in Germany and weakness in Asian and European markets. Investors are closely watching for the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, due Wednesday, which could fuel further speculation on the future of US economic policy.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Outlook: Bearish Momentum Below Key PivotEUR/USD Analysis The EUR/USD price is currently consolidating below the pivot line at 1.0680, showing bearish momentum. If this bearish trend continues, the next movement is likely to test support levels below. Scenarios: Bearish Scenario: If the price continues to trade below the pivot line (1.0680) and breaks below the immediate support at 1.0616, it may reach down to the next support at 1.0544. A close below 1.0616 would strengthen this bearish outlook. Bullish Scenario: For a bullish reversal, the price needs to reclaim and stabilize above the resistance line at 1.0739. This move would suggest a shift towards higher targets, potentially testing 1.0861. Key Levels: Pivot Line: 1.0680 Resistance Levels: 1.0739, 1.0780, 1.0861 Support Levels: 1.0616, 1.0544, 1.0470 Trend Outlook: The bearish scenario is currently more accurate as long as the price remains below the pivot line and support levels are tested. previous idea:
Short
by SroshMayi
EUR/USD Decline: How US Political Dynamics Favor a Stronger DollThe EUR/USD currency pair may experience further declines as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed optimism tied to recent developments in American politics. Following substantial electoral gains by the Republicans, a robust agenda focusing on tax reforms and spending cuts is expected to gain traction, bolstering confidence in the USD. In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) may contemplate reducing interest rates to nearly zero by 2025 if economic growth stagnates as a result of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Current price action indicates that after testing the 1.0800 level, the Euro has sharply dropped, continuing its depreciation against the strengthening USD, which has gained support from the positive sentiment surrounding the Republican victory. The Stochastic indicator clearly shows that the DXY is moving out of oversold territory, suggesting further strength ahead for the Dollar. Additionally, the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an increase in long positions among retail traders, while institutional investors—often referred to as smart money—have begun to reduce their long holdings. This shift may signal a potential downturn ahead for the Euro. Based on our analysis, we have identified a demand zone between 1.0600 and 1.0450, which merits further examination in a weekly context for a clearer rationale behind this zone. In summary, the outlook for the Euro and other currencies against the DXY appears bearish in the near term, given the current market dynamics and geopolitical factors at play. Our previous Forecast with Target 1.0800 Pullback. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Short
by FOREXN1
1
EUR/USD Remains Bearish Amid Trump's Economic PoliciesThe EUR/USD currency pair has experienced a sustained bearish trend for the past five days, largely influenced by the implications of the ongoing "Trump trade." Since the elections, this trade has significantly contributed to the rally of the US Dollar (USD). The USD Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's strength against a group of foreign currencies, has surged to its highest point since November 2023, driven by anticipations that the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump will act as a catalyst for growth. Additionally, Trump's proposals to increase tariffs on imports are raising concerns that inflation may rise, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to halt its cycle of monetary easing. Recent data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), released Wednesday, suggests that the nation is making sluggish progress in curtailing inflation, implying that there may be fewer interest rate cuts on the horizon for the next year. This situation supports the persistence of high US Treasury bond yields and further elevates the USD's value broadly. According to the latest report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline CPI recorded a rise of 0.2% in October, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. Notably, the core CPI, which omits the more volatile prices of food and energy, climbed 0.3% last month and saw a 3.3% increase compared to the previous year. These figures reinforce speculation that the Fed could implement a third rate cut in December, amid signs of a cooling labor market. From a technical analysis perspective, the price has approached our identified Demand zone, where we are on the lookout for a potential rebound. However, as of now, there are no indicators suggesting an imminent price increase. Therefore, exercising patience and waiting for confirmation is essential at this stage. ✅ Please share your thoughts about EUR/USD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
by FOREXN1
1
#EURUSD - 14112024 I was cautiously bullish for EURUSD yesterday for a move higher but was much wrong on the move. EURUSD re-tested the lows then moved higher but was capped by the algo bands before the further sell down to 1.0566 strong level. The strong levels as shown on the charts could give a pullback but I shall not call for any longs for today (though 1.0525 is a good level to do so). In the event of a pullback, look for 1.0590/1.0606 for short opportunities for a move lower.
by FadeMeIfYouCan
Market Analysis: EUR/USD Dips FurtherMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Dips Further EUR/USD extended losses and traded below the 1.0775 support. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today - The Euro struggled to clear the 1.0935 resistance and declined against the US Dollar. - There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0680 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen. EUR/USD Technical Analysis On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to clear the 1.0935 resistance. The Euro started a fresh decline below the 1.0825 support against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The pair declined below the 1.0775 support and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0630 level. A low was formed at 1.0628 and the pair is now consolidating losses. The pair is showing bearish signs, and the upsides might remain capped. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0825 swing high to the 1.0628 low at 1.0680. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.0680 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The next major resistance is near the 1.0725 zone. The main resistance sits near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.0825 swing high to the 1.0628 low at 1.0775. An upside break above the 1.0775 level might send the pair toward the 1.0825 resistance. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0935 level. On the downside, immediate support on the EUR/USD chart is seen near 1.0630. The next major support is near the 1.0600 level. A downside break below the 1.0600 support could send the pair toward the 1.0565 level. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2