#Tesla Analysis : +20% so far, What's Next ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Tesla stock chart on the weekly (logarithmic) timeframe, we can see that, as expected in the previous analysis, Tesla stock faced selling pressure after reaching the supply zone of $233 to $271. This selling pressure intensified this week, causing the price to drop by about 20%, reaching $214. Currently, Tesla stock is trading around $220. We will likely see a slight upward move followed by further declines in the stock.
The Main Analysis :
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Eurusd-4
EUR/USD : Potential Buy Opportunity Near Strong Support ZoneThe EUR/USD pair is currently testing a significant Support/Demand zone on the Daily timeframe, around 1.09, which has previously held as a key level for buyers. With the U.S. Dollar showing signs of weakening, especially as market sentiment shifts amidst economic concerns, this area is critical for determining the next move.
Technical Insights:
Daily Chart: The price is hovering near the demand zone, suggesting that buying interest may emerge from this level. Historically, this region has acted as a major support for price rebounds.
Bullish Convergence on H4: On the H4 timeframe, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is showing a classic bullish convergence, with the indicator making higher lows while price forms lower lows. This suggests that the selling momentum is weakening, increasing the likelihood of a bullish reversal.
Trade Plan:
Entry : Wait for a clear bullish reversal pattern such as a bullish engulfing or a pin bar around the 1.09 level on the lower timeframes (H1 or H4) for confirmation.
Stop Loss : Below 1.0850, just under the support level to manage risk.
Target : Initial targets around 1.1020, with the possibility to extend higher if bullish momentum continues.
FX:EURUSD OANDA:EURUSD FOREXCOM:EURUSD
Master Breakout Trading: The Strategy Every Trader Needs to KnowIn the world of trading, a "breakout" refers to a price movement that occurs when an asset moves beyond a predefined support or resistance level. These pivotal moments often signal a significant shift in market dynamics and can lead to substantial price changes. Breakouts are crucial for traders as they can mark the beginning of a new trend. A breakout above a resistance level may suggest the start of an uptrend, while a breakout below support could indicate a downtrend. Learning to identify and trade breakouts effectively can unlock profitable opportunities and help traders capitalize on shifting market conditions.
What Are Breakouts in Trading?
Breakouts occur when the price of an asset surpasses a well-established support or resistance level, suggesting a potential shift in market direction. A bullish breakout happens when the price breaks above resistance, signaling upward momentum. Conversely, a bearish breakout occurs when the price drops below support, often indicating the continuation of a downtrend.
Breakouts are significant because they often lead to increased trading activity and volatility, offering traders opportunities to enter or exit positions at pivotal moments. These breakouts are often accompanied by increased trading volume, which helps confirm the validity of the price move and suggests that a new trend is forming.
How Breakouts Occur and Their Importance
Breakouts occur when price action surpasses critical price levels—either support or resistance—that have acted as barriers in the past. These levels are often identified through technical analysis and represent key turning points where buyers or sellers have historically entered the market in large numbers.
--Support Levels: A price point where an asset tends to stop falling and may reverse upward. A bearish breakout occurs when the price drops below this level, signaling a continuation of the downtrend.
--Resistance Levels: A price point where an asset typically stops rising and may reverse downward. A bullish breakout occurs when the price surpasses this level, suggesting the potential for further upward movement.
Breakouts are important because they can indicate the start of a new market trend. When price breaks through a support or resistance level, it signals that the market sentiment has shifted, and traders can take advantage of this movement to capture profits. For successful breakout trading, it's essential to confirm these breakouts using volume and other technical indicators to avoid being caught in a false breakout, where price briefly breaks a level but reverses direction shortly after.
Examples of Breakout Scenarios
Breakouts can present profitable trading opportunities in both bullish and bearish markets. Here are two examples:
--Bullish Breakout Example
Take a look at the following EUR/USD chart, where the price breaks above the 1.0200 level after previously rebounding off resistance. Traders would interpret this as a bullish breakout and may look to enter long positions, expecting the pair to sustain its upward momentum. This breakout provides a buying opportunity as market sentiment turns positive and shifts to the upside.
--Bearish Breakout Example
Take a look at the following EUR/USD chart, where the price breaks below the 1.03500 level after previously rebounding off support. Traders would view this as a bearish breakout and may consider entering short positions, anticipating the pair to maintain its downward momentum. This breakout offers a selling opportunity as market sentiment shifts to the downside.
In both examples, breakouts offer traders clear entry points based on the movement beyond established levels, allowing them to profit from the new trend.
👆 Read Also this deep article where we cover everything you need to know about Support-and-Resistance in trading.
The Concept of Breakout Trading
Breakout trading is based on the premise that once price moves beyond significant support or resistance levels, it is likely to continue in that direction for some time. This approach involves recognizing these levels, waiting for the breakout to occur, and entering a trade in the direction of the breakout.
Key elements of breakout trading include:
--Identifying Key Levels: Use technical analysis to locate critical support and resistance levels where price has previously struggled to break through.
--Confirming the Breakout: Ensure the breakout is accompanied by strong volume to confirm its validity.
--Risk Management: Employ Stop Loss orders to protect against false breakouts, where the price briefly breaks the level but then reverses.
--Maximizing Profits: Traders aim to capture as much of the price movement as possible, staying in the trade as long as the breakout trend remains intact.
To identify potential breakouts, traders often use indicators like trendlines, moving averages, and volume analysis. Chart patterns, such as triangles or flags, can also signal a potential breakout. When combined with volume analysis, these tools help confirm that a breakout is likely to lead to a sustained price movement.
Popular Breakout Trading Strategies:
--Trendline Breakout Strategy
One of the most popular strategies involves using trendlines. A trendline is drawn by connecting two or more price points, creating a visual representation of market direction. When the price breaks through the trendline, it signals a potential reversal or continuation of the trend.
Step 1: Draw trendlines by connecting significant highs and lows.
Step 2: Monitor price as it approaches the trendline.
Step 3: Enter a trade when the price closes beyond the trendline, with confirmation from increased volume.
Step 4: Place a Stop Loss order just below/above the breakout level to manage risk.
Support and Resistance Breakout Strategy:
This strategy involves identifying key support and resistance levels on a chart. Once these levels are breached, traders enter the market based on the direction of the breakout.
Step 1: Identify key support and resistance levels from historical price data.
Step 2: Wait for the price to approach these levels.
Step 3: Enter a position after the price breaks through, with confirmation from volume.
Step 4: Use Stop Loss orders to protect against false breakouts.
Volume-Based Breakout Strategy:
Volume is a critical component of successful breakout trading. A significant increase in volume during a breakout indicates strong market interest, making it more likely that the breakout will continue.
Step 1: Monitor volume as the price approaches key levels.
Step 2: Confirm the breakout with a volume spike.
How to Implement a Breakout Trading Strategy
To implement a breakout trading strategy effectively:
--Set Up Your Platform: Ensure your trading platform is equipped with real-time charts like Tradingview, technical indicators, and alerts to identify breakouts as they happen. Customizing your charts with trendlines, support/resistance levels, and volume indicators will help in visualizing breakout points.
--Use Risk Management: Proper risk management is key to avoiding large losses. Place Stop Loss orders just below (for bullish breakouts) or above (for bearish breakouts) the breakout level to limit potential losses from false breakouts.
👆 Read Also this article where we cover everything you need to know about Risk Management in trading, from essential strategies to practical tips for safeguarding your capital.
Common Mistakes in Breakout Trading
Breakout traders often fall into a few common traps:
--Overtrading: Jumping into too many trades or reacting to every price movement can lead to losses. It's crucial to wait for confirmed breakouts before entering trades.
Falling for False Breakouts: A false breakout occurs when price temporarily moves beyond a key level but then reverses. Confirming the breakout with volume or other indicators can help avoid this mistake.
-Ignoring Risk Management: Failing to set proper Stop Losses can lead to significant losses if the market moves against you. Always manage risk by placing Stop Loss orders at appropriate levels.
Tips for Successful Breakout Trading
--Combine Indicators: Use multiple technical indicators, such as moving averages, volume analysis, and trendlines, to confirm breakouts. This increases the reliability of breakout signals.
--Maintain Discipline: Stick to your trading plan and avoid making emotional decisions. Impatience can lead to entering or exiting trades prematurely, undermining your strategy.
--Refine Your Strategy: Continuously review and refine your trading strategies based on market conditions. Markets evolve, and regular analysis helps ensure your breakout strategies remain effective.
👆 Lastly, read this article where we cover everything you need to know about the Trader's Checklist for Successful Trading, providing key steps and insights to help you stay on track and maximize your trading success.
In Conclusion..
Breakout trading offers a powerful way to capitalize on significant price movements in the market. By mastering strategies like trendline, support/resistance, and volume-based breakouts, traders can position themselves to profit from new trends. Effective risk management and discipline are crucial for long-term success. With continuous learning and strategy refinement, breakout trading can become a highly rewarding approach to navigating financial markets.
EURUSD - 4H Bullish signsThe OANDA:EURUSD pair is currently positioned for potential bullish momentum, especially as the weakening of the US dollar becomes more evident. Technically, the EURUSD is showing signs of recovery, as the downward momentum appears to be weakening, and the price has reached a strong support zone. The recent decline in the USD due to a softer US jobs report, coupled with expectations of dovish action from the Federal Reserve, provides further support for a possible upward move in FX:EURUSD .
Additionally, with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to take further action, possibly through a rate cut in mid-October, market sentiment around the Euro remains cautiously optimistic. If the pair breaks above the next resistance levels, the outlook for a continued rise seems strong, as the price aims for 1.1010 or higher. This aligns well with the technical analysis, where the support zone indicates a potential bounce in the coming sessions.
EUR/USD BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG
Hello, Friends!
We are going long on the EUR/USD with the target of 1.102 level, because the pair is oversold and will soon hit the support line below. We deduced the oversold condition from the price being near to the lower BB band. However, we should use low risk here because the 1W TF is red and gives us a counter-signal.
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EUR/USD 4H Chart - Strong Demand Zone & Possible Reversal SetupEUR/USD 4H Chart - Strong Demand Zone & Possible Reversal Setup
In this 4-hour EUR/USD chart, we see the price approaching a significant Strong Demand Zone , which could act as a major support level. The market has been in a downtrend, but a potential reversal is indicated once the price interacts with this zone. The price may consolidate before pushing upwards through the resistance levels marked on the chart.
I anticipate a bullish move once the market finds stability in the demand zone, with the price action potentially heading toward the upper resistance levels around 1.10 and 1.11. If we see a breakout above these levels, it could signal further bullish momentum.
Let’s keep an eye on how the price reacts within this demand zone for potential entry opportunities!
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Bias! Buy!
Welcome to our daily EURUSD prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 1.09284
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
EURUSDHello Traders!
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
EURUSD has reached a key support zone. Despite the overall bearish trend in higher time frames, a bullish correction is expected from this level. The correction could extend to predetermined resistance levels.
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Sell EUR/USD Strong DollarThe EUR/USD pair on the H1 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Bearish Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours.
Key Points:
Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around the current price of 1.0937, positioned close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 1.0885
2nd Support – 1.0860
Stop-Loss: To manage risk, place a stop-loss order above 1.0960. This helps limit potential losses if the price unexpectedly reverses and breaks back upwards.
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DXY - Dollar Index 4H bearish setupThe TVC:DXY is showing potential for a bearish reversal after its recent rise. Technically, DXY has bounced back to a key resistance zone after a major fall, reaching the order block from the last leg down. The failure to break significantly higher from this resistance suggests the possibility of another downward move. Liquidity grabs above the resistance zone further support this bearish outlook. However, a small bounce within the resistance zone before another fall is still possible as liquidity is gathered from the upside.
Fundamentally, several factors are influencing the bearish sentiment for the USD. The Federal Reserve’s ongoing easing cycle and the potential for further interest rate cuts weaken the dollar, especially as inflation pressures remain subdued. Other central banks, including the ECB, have cut rates, increasing the interest rate gap with the USD, which could further reduce demand for the dollar
EUR/USD Starts Tuesday with a Slight Rebound BUT...The EUR/USD pair began the Tuesday session with a modest rebound after touching its lowest level since early August. The pair is currently trading around 1.09090, showing some signs of recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious as traders await key economic data releases and central bank policy announcements.
Market Sentiment and USD Resilience
On Monday, the US Dollar (USD) remained resilient against its major counterparts, thanks to the lack of significant macroeconomic data releases and a generally cautious market mood. This led to a slight decline in EUR/USD, as the greenback held its ground. With no high-impact economic reports due early this week, the USD's strength was mainly driven by investor risk aversion and uncertainty surrounding upcoming data.
Key Upcoming Data: Eurozone Focus
The focus for EUR/USD traders will shift to the upcoming Eurostat Industrial Production data for August and the ZEW Survey from Germany’s ZEW economic research institute. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for both Germany and the Eurozone is expected to show improvement in October, and any upside surprise could offer the Euro some support, potentially lifting EUR/USD from its recent lows.
However, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday. With the ECB's stance still unclear, traders may hold back from making large moves until there’s more clarity on the central bank's next steps.
US Data: Thursday in Focus
While this week started quietly, Thursday is set to bring more significant economic releases, particularly from the US. Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are all scheduled for release, which could provide further direction for the USD. Until then, the EUR might have some room to recover, but the overall outlook remains cautious, and further USD strength could pressure the pair lower.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Pressure Persists
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains within a weak demand area, which could offer a minor rebound. However, the broader trend suggests that bearish pressure could continue, pushing the pair towards lower demand levels.
The COT (Commitment of Traders) report indicates that retail traders turned short on the Euro last week, while institutional investors (often referred to as "smart money") became more bullish. This divergence suggests that the market may be searching for a more solid demand zone before any substantial retracement occurs. Our analysis points to further bearish momentum, potentially targeting the Demand Number 2 or even lower towards Demand Number 3 before the pair finds meaningful support.
Outlook and Strategy: Patience Until Thursday
At present, we are holding back on opening any positions in EUR/USD, as the situation remains uncertain, and key data releases on Thursday could significantly shift market dynamics. While the pair may see some minor gains in the short term, the outlook is still dominated by bearish sentiment. We expect more clarity following the ECB’s policy announcement and the US data releases later this week.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD's slight rebound on Tuesday provides a temporary relief, but the market remains cautious as key economic data and central bank decisions loom. Traders should remain patient and watch for stronger signals from upcoming events before making any substantial moves.
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EUR-USDThe eurusd pair creates double top at 1.1200 level and then drop and breakout of M pattern at 1.1000 and go down side to 1.09050. now market drop sharp and its time to retracement to 1.100 again. Pair just broke the support and now its turn support into resistance. and then drop to 1.0800 to 1.07500 support zone.
EURUSD Multi Timeframe Analysis 15.10.202415m Swing and Internal Bearish aligned with 4H
We have now mitigated 4H Demand nested in Daily Demand that I have mentioned on earlier analysis
Ideal 15m supply ranges to look for shorts marked on the chart to follow the bearish order flow
To look for longs, that minimal 15m structure is now bullish and have created a demand zone to play quick longs. But ideally wait for 15m Internal Structure to shift bullish, that possibly be 4H Fractal to switch bullish, to play longs
EUR/USD – Potential Stabilization at Green Zone SupportThe Euro has been declining for several days, and as we approach the green zone identified as a support level, I believe we may see some stabilization or a rebound. This area has historically acted as a support level, and it could provide the necessary buying pressure to reverse the recent downtrend.
Strategy: I will be monitoring the price action closely around this green zone for signs of a potential bounce and may consider entering a long position if the conditions are favorable.
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 15, 2024 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair reached a new ten-week low on Monday, marking the start of the new trading week with another decline. The euro lost 0.25% against the dollar, breaching its 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) as a result of the dollar's strength and the euro's general weakening.
The latest results of the European Central Bank's (ECB) lending survey are scheduled for release on Tuesday, and investors will be monitoring for any indications regarding the overall health of the European banking sector this week.
The final European harmonised consumer price index (HICP) inflation data is scheduled for release on Thursday morning, but is unlikely to have a significant impact on market volatility as investors focus on the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a 25-basis point interest rate cut is expected.
The next significant data release from the US is scheduled for Thursday, when US retail sales are expected to show a modest increase of 0.3% m/m in September, following a relatively subdued August reading of 0.1%.
Trade recommendation: Trading predominantly Sell orders from the current price level.
Euro is falling over economic downturn and the ECB’s rate cuts
The market anticipates the ECB reducing rates further at its upcoming monetary policy meeting this week. This is due to the eurozone inflation rate dropping to 1.8%, which already meets the central bank's target. Moreover, mounting worries about an economic recession have amplified the demand for the ECB to persist with interest rate cuts. If the Eurozone industrial production for August and ZEW Economic Sentiment for October, which will be announced today, fall below the previous month's figures and market consensus, the euro may weaken further against the dollar.
EURUSD sustained its downtrend and fell to 1.0900. After EMA21 death-crossed EMA78, the gap consistently widens, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD stays below EMA21 and breaks 1.0870, the price may fall further to 1.0780. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches EMA21 and holds above 1.1000, where EMA78 coincides, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.1050.
EUR/USD: Bearish Trend Driven by Diverging Monetary Policies!The EUR/USD continues to face bearish pressure, nearing two-month lows around 1.0890, driven by a strengthening U.S. dollar supported by increased risk aversion and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The dollar also benefited from the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which revealed that a majority of members supported a monetary easing policy, though without a clear timeline for future rate cuts. The diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) are strongly influencing the exchange rate. While the Fed is leaning towards further rate cuts, with an 84% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction next month, the ECB is more cautious. Despite inflation in the Eurozone falling below the 2% target, the ECB is closely monitoring economic data before taking new measures, leaving the euro vulnerable. The economic weakness in the Eurozone, with stagnant GDP growth, could continue to weigh on the euro, further favoring the dollar, which is in a position of strength thanks to the resilience of the U.S. economy. In conclusion, the EUR/USD is in a bearish context, with a possible break of key support levels that could lead to further declines. Only a recovery above the 1.0996 resistance could reverse the negative trend, but current economic and monetary conditions suggest the dollar will continue to dominate in the short term.
EUR/USD buyers could be lurking around the 200-day SMAThe euro has already seen a decent selloff heading into Thursday's ECB meeting, where expectations for them to cut by 25bp are high. And that runs the risk that that the cut is already priced in, and could leave the euro susceptible to a bounce if a dovish tone (hint of further cuts) are not also delivered.
Prices are trying to hold around the 1.09, near the 200-day EMA and monthly S2 pivot point. We have inflation data from Europe up shortly, and if that comes in soft then perhaps we'll see another low. But given the size of the selloff already seen, I suspect buyers could be lurking around the 200-day SMA and a countertrend bounce to 1.0950 at a minimum could be due.
MS.
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is falling to our buy entry at 1.0880, which is an overlap support close to 78.6% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 1.0955, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0783, which is a swing-low support level.
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EURUSD Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on EURUSD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 1.0913 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 1.0926
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK