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EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Bias Likely to Continue – Key Drivers!EUR/USD Forecast: Bearish Bias Likely to Continue – Key Drivers for the Upcoming Weeks (20/09/2024) As we move further into September, the EUR/USD pair faces a potential downside with a slightly bearish bias expected for this week and the next. In this analysis, we’ll break down the fundamental and technical drivers behind this forecast and explore the key factors that could influence EUR/USD price action. Traders and investors alike will want to stay informed about these crucial elements affecting the euro-to-dollar exchange rate. 1. US Dollar Strength Continues to Pressure EUR/USD One of the primary factors driving the EUR/USD pair’s bearish outlook is the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar. The greenback continues to benefit from a strong domestic economy, leading to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for an extended period. Recent data and statements from Fed officials signal confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy, suggesting that inflationary pressures may persist longer than expected. For EUR/USD, this creates a downward trajectory, as a stronger U.S. dollar weighs heavily on the exchange rate. As traders adjust their portfolios to reflect the higher yields available in U.S. markets, the demand for the dollar grows, pushing EUR/USD lower. Key SEO keywords: EUR/USD forecast, US dollar strength, Federal Reserve policy, EUR/USD price action, interest rate hike, inflationary pressures. 2. Eurozone Economic Weakness Adding to Bearish Pressure on EUR/USD On the other side of the EUR/USD equation, the Eurozone continues to face significant economic challenges. Recent data shows that the region's growth has been slower than expected, with inflation remaining persistently high. The European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted a cautious approach to raising interest rates, balancing the need to control inflation against the backdrop of sluggish industrial activity and weak consumer sentiment. This dovish stance from the ECB, compared to the more aggressive Federal Reserve, further supports the bearish bias in EUR/USD. As the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe widens, the euro becomes less attractive, leading to downward pressure on the exchange rate. Key SEO keywords: Eurozone economic weakness, ECB policy, interest rate differential, euro inflation, industrial slowdown, euro exchange rate. 3. Interest Rate Differentials Favoring the US Dollar Interest rate differentials between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB continue to favor the U.S. dollar. As the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, hinting at further rate hikes, the ECB remains cautious, primarily due to the fragility of the Eurozone economy. This divergence in central bank policies has become a key factor in the EUR/USD bearish outlook. A widening interest rate gap is a bearish signal for EUR/USD traders, as higher yields in the U.S. attract capital away from the euro. This ongoing dynamic is expected to persist into the following weeks, continuing to favor the USD over the euro. Key SEO keywords: Interest rate differentials, Fed vs ECB policy, hawkish Federal Reserve, EUR/USD downside risk, capital flows. 4. Geopolitical Tensions Adding Risk for the Euro Another factor weighing on the euro is the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, particularly related to energy issues and tensions in Eastern Europe. Any escalation in these areas could undermine confidence in the euro, as investors seek safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar. Given the current global landscape, this could add to the bearish pressure on EUR/USD in the weeks ahead. Key SEO keywords: Geopolitical tensions, euro risks, energy crisis, Eastern Europe tensions, EUR/USD safe-haven flows, euro downside risk. 5. Technical Analysis – EUR/USD Testing Key Support Levels From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD chart shows a bearish trend beginning to form. The pair is approaching key support levels, and if these are broken, we could see a sharper decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate. Recent price action suggests that resistance levels are holding firm, indicating limited upside potential for the euro in the short term. Traders should watch for a potential breakdown of these key support areas, which could signal a further bearish move for the EUR/USD pair in the upcoming weeks. Key SEO keywords: EUR/USD technical analysis, key support levels, resistance levels, EUR/USD chart, bearish trend. Conclusion – EUR/USD Bearish Bias Expected to Continue In conclusion, several fundamental and technical factors are aligning to suggest a continued bearish bias for EUR/USD over the next couple of weeks. The strength of the U.S. dollar, economic challenges in the Eurozone, interest rate differentials, geopolitical tensions, and bearish technical setups all point toward further downside risk for the euro-to-dollar exchange rate. Traders and investors should closely monitor these drivers as they make their trading decisions in the weeks ahead. As always, staying updated on key economic data releases and central bank announcements will be crucial for navigating EUR/USD price action. Key SEO keywords: EUR/USD forecast, bearish bias, EUR/USD key drivers, US dollar strength, Eurozone economic outlook, ECB policy, Fed interest rates, EUR/USD price action.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
EURUSD Will Move Lower! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for EURUSD. Time Frame: 1h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 1.116. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.113 level. P.S Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
1
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 1.1161, a multi-swing high resistance. Our take profit will be at 1.1080, a swing low support close to 61.8% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1200 which is a multi swing-high resistance." High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by FXCM
KOG's RED BOXES - EURUSD EURUSD: Key level red box here is around the 1.1045 region with the bias being bullish above. Swing high currently in production, immediate red box needs to break. Have a look at the previous pinned posts on Red boxes to familiarise yourself with how they are so effective in keeping traders the right side of the markets. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG
by KnightsofGold
Post FOMC analysis19th September DXY: Currently at 100.60, could bounce to retest bearish trendline. If 100.60 broken, could test 100 round number. NZDUSD: Could trade higher, look for reaction at 0.63 resistance, Buy 0.6255 SL 20 TP 40 AUDUSD: Buy 0.6780 SL 30 TP 70 GBPUSD: Sell 1.3250 SL 30 TP 90 (BoE Rates Decision pending) EURUSD: Sell 1.1130 SL 25 TP 50 USDJPY: Sell 142 SL 45 TP 90 USDCHF: Sell 0.8430 SL 20 TP 40 USDCAD: Sell 1.3560 SL 30 TP 40 Gold: Currently at 2585 could trade higher to 2600 and even form new ATH
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 0.5%Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 0.5% As we have frequently noted, a rate cut by the Federal Reserve seemed inevitable. Market participants debated whether the reduction would be 0.5% or 0.25%, and those predicting a 0.5% cut were proven correct. According to Bloomberg, a narrow majority of 10 out of 19 committee members supported the 50-basis-point cut. Seven members favoured an additional 0.25% cut later this year, while two opposed any further reductions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the 0.5% cut "reflects our growing confidence that we can maintain labour market strength amid moderate growth and a steady decline in inflation to 2%". He added that interest rates are unlikely to return to the ultra-low levels seen for many years before the pandemic. Financial markets reacted with increased volatility, with stock indices rising and the dollar strengthening slightly against other currencies. However, it is still too early to determine the impact of the Fed's decision on current trends. Technical analysis of the EUR/USD chart shows that: → The ATR indicator reveals that the Fed's decision led to a volatility spike, though it was smaller than the panic-induced drop in the Japanese stock market on 5 August. It seems the markets were better prepared for yesterday’s news. → Following the announcement, the price approached the late August high near the psychological level of 1.120 but did not exceed it. The volatility spike also tested the 13 September low around 1.107. → As of this morning, the EUR/USD rate is near the median line of the blue uptrend channel, constructed using linear regression, and equidistant from the extremes set during the volatility spike. This suggests that the market is in a relatively balanced position. Market participants may need to better understand the implications of the Fed's decision. Their revised assessments, reflected in trading decisions, will provide more insight into the prevailing trends. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
My EURUSD Sells update after FOMC meeting !! - Who's holding ??EURUSD Weekly Outlook (19/09/2024): Slight Bearish Bias The EURUSD pair appears to be leaning towards a bearish bias this week, driven by several key macroeconomic factors and market dynamics. Let’s break down the main drivers shaping this outlook: 1. US Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is in sharp focus, with markets anticipating a potential reaffirmation of its "higher-for-longer" interest rate policy. Recent commentary and data suggest that inflation is still a concern in the U.S., and the Fed remains vigilant in maintaining a restrictive policy stance. The hawkish outlook for US rates bolsters the USD, placing pressure on EURUSD. Expectations for future rate hikes or at least prolonged elevated rates support the dollar, as the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Europe continues to widen in favor of the USD. 2. European Central Bank (ECB) Dovish Tilt Contrasting with the Fed, the ECB has shown signs of softening its hawkish tone. Last week, the ECB decided on what many view as a "dovish hike," raising rates but signaling that the peak of the hiking cycle may be near. The Eurozone's economic growth outlook is deteriorating, with concerns over a recession in key economies like Germany. This dovish stance is weighing on the euro, as markets are pricing in fewer rate hikes going forward. With interest rate differentials playing a crucial role in FX markets, this is a key bearish driver for EURUSD. 3. Eurozone Economic Weakness Recent economic data from the Eurozone has been disappointing. Manufacturing activity remains sluggish, and service sector growth has shown signs of stalling. Germany, the bloc’s largest economy, is particularly concerning, with its manufacturing PMI in contraction territory for months. Furthermore, rising energy costs could add pressure on European economies, potentially reigniting inflationary concerns but also hindering growth. This weaker growth outlook could deter investors from taking long positions in the euro. 4. US Economic Resilience On the other hand, the U.S. economy continues to show resilience. Robust labor market figures, strong consumer spending, and better-than-expected GDP data indicate that the U.S. economy is outperforming the Eurozone. This contrast in economic performance provides further support for the USD. Moreover, the U.S. bond market continues to offer attractive yields relative to European bonds. Higher U.S. Treasury yields, especially on the long end of the curve, are a key factor driving demand for the dollar. 5. Geopolitical Risks & Energy Concerns Geopolitical tensions, particularly surrounding the war in Ukraine and ongoing disputes over energy supplies in Europe, pose an additional downside risk for the euro. While energy prices have stabilized in recent months, any renewed supply disruptions as Europe heads into the winter season could reignite concerns over inflation and economic stability in the region. If energy prices surge again, it could lead to further economic strain in the Eurozone, potentially pushing EURUSD lower. Technical Outlook From a technical perspective, EURUSD is currently testing key support levels around 1.0650–1.0700. A sustained break below these levels could open the door for a move towards the 1.0500 region, especially if the dollar continues to strengthen on Fed-related optimism. On the upside, resistance lies near the 1.0800–1.0850 zone. Bulls would need to see a clear catalyst, such as dovish Fed signals or improved Eurozone data, to challenge these levels. Conclusion Given the hawkish Fed, dovish ECB, and weaker Eurozone economic data, EURUSD is likely to maintain a bearish bias this week. Traders should keep an eye on key U.S. data releases and any unexpected geopolitical developments that could impact market sentiment. My personal Key levels to watch: - Support: 1.0650, 1.0500 - Resistance: 1.0800, 1.0850
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
XAUUSD H4 Analysis - Bullish - Next target 2650Pair Name = Gold Timeframe = H4 Analysis = technical + fundamentals Trend = Bullish Details :- Please see the Above chart To see The Gold Next Moves. We are currently in new Price Ranges. But we are also using our previous analysis and data to Follow the exact Path. Currently We Can see between two strong support and Resistance levels. As we can see at chart 2565 Gold Price level and 2580 Gold Price level. EMA 5 is indicating the trend of the market. EMA Crossed over done between 2564 to 2568. That indicates the Bullish move. This kind of market allow us to buy the dip and cash another next trend move. Strongest retesting zone hit. The price level 2545 to 2556 price level. EMA 5 Crossing levels:- 2564 To 2568 Retracement Zone:- 2545 To 2555 Bullish Gold Levels:- 2590 2615 2638 Bearish Gold Levels:- 2564 2556 2545 2530 Stay tune we Will update again when market will give up another good direction move. With Different different time frame we check the market to get the Accuracte analysis according market next move. Happy trading.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alpha-GoldFX
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Long to the resistance area 1.11587.Dear colleagues, in the last forecast I counted on the fact that wave “2” is completed, but now it is clear that it is not. I think that the price will complete wave “2” in the area of 100% - 161.8% Fibonacci extension levels. This is the range of 1.09788 - 1.08690. But from here I hope to see the beginning of the upward movement in wave “3”, because I still want to see an update of the highs and the nearest target is the resistance area at 1.11587. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
11