EURUSD - The Bears Are Getting Started!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈EURUSD has been bullish trading within the rising blue channel.
However, it is currently retesting the upper bound of both red and blue channels.
🏹 The highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper trendlines and orange resistance zone.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD is around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD
EURO - Price may make a movement up and then dropHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few days ago price traded between $1.0870 level inside a flat, where it after fell to bottom part and made an upward impulse.
Price exited from flat, breaking $1.0870 level too, and then made a correction, after which continued to grow.
Later, Euro reached $1.1425 level, breaking recently $1.1155 level recently, and soon price broke $1.1425 level too.
Next, price started to traded inside pennant, where it dropped from resistance line to support line, breaking $1.1425 level again.
Euro fell to support line, after which started to grow and in a short time, rose to resistance line.
Now, I think that Euro may make a movement up and then start to decline to $1.1235 support line of pennant.
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breaking above its previous swing high.GBP/USD Technical – Break of Structure, Liquidity Sweep, and Potential Downside Movement
The GBP/USD currency pair recently demonstrated significant bullish strength by breaking above its previous swing high, which resulted in a clear Break of Structure (BOS). This move indicated a continuation of the upward trend as the market pushed higher. However, the latest price action suggests a shift in sentiment that traders should be aware of.
Despite the earlier bullish momentum, the market has now swept the previous daily swing high—meaning it briefly moved above that level only to close back below it. This kind of price behavior often signals a potential liquidity grab rather than a sustained breakout. Such a move is frequently followed by a reversal or corrective move to the downside, as it indicates that institutional participants may have been targeting stop-losses or resting liquidity before driving the price in the opposite direction.
Given this, there is a growing possibility that the market may retrace further downward. A likely target could be the previously marked swing low, where additional liquidity may be resting. Moreover, beneath this level lies a Bullish Price Rebalance (BPR) zone, which could serve as an area of interest for a potential bullish reaction if the market taps into it.
At this stage, it's crucial to monitor price action closely and wait for further confirmations before taking any directional bias. Watching how the market behaves near the previous swing low and the underlying BPR zone can offer valuable insight into the next probable move.
As always, conduct your own thorough research (DYOR) before making any trading decisions. This is not financial advice and is intended solely for educational and analytical purposes.
EURUSD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 7h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.130.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.121.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Euro Extends Rally Ahead of PMI DataEUR/USD trades near 1.1340 during Asian hours, close to two-week highs, extending gains for a fourth session ahead of Eurozone PMI data expected to show improved growth for May.
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as markets await Thursday’s S&P Global PMI. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1, matching earlier cuts by Fitch and S&P, citing rising debt, projected to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, and a nearly 9% deficit.
Trump’s tax-cut plan cleared the House Rules Committee, but the DXY still trades lower near 99.50.
The key resistance is located at 1.1390, and the first support stands at 1.1260.
EURUSD Pullback in Play – Next Stop: $1.1337EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) is moving in the Resistance zone($1.1310-$1.1162) while the upper line of the descending channel has been broken.
According to Elliott Wave theory , a breakout of the descending channel can at least confirm the end of a corrective wave . The corrective wave structure was a Double Three Correction(WXY) .
I expect EURUSD to rise to at least $1.1337 after completing a pullback to the upper line of the descending channel .
Note: If EURUSD touches $1.11590, we can expect further declines.
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S. Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 4-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy and updates; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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DeGRAM | EURUSD reached the upper boundary of the channel📊 Technical Analysis
● Price is capped by the H4 supply at 1.130-1.135 and the roof of a year-long downward channel; the latest test printed a bearish pin (red arrow).
● Inside, a smaller blue rising channel has just broken south—turning 1.128 into fresh resistance—and leaves room to the mid-channel support at 1.121, then the lower rail / 1.113.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● ECB’s Villeroy repeated that a June cut is “very likely” while Fed minutes stressed rates may stay restrictive; widening yield gap revives USD demand.
✨ Summary
Fade 1.128-1.131; targets 1.121 ➜ 1.113, extension 1.106. Short view void on a close above 1.135.
-------------------
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STRUCTURE SHIFT OR FALSE BREAKOUT? MAJOR MOVE LOADING? EURUSD 22/05 – STRUCTURE SHIFT OR FALSE BREAKOUT? MAJOR MOVE LOADING?
🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK
The market remains caught between dovish expectations and hawkish reality. While recent US CPI and PPI came in weaker than expected, Fed officials have refrained from confirming any imminent rate cuts, keeping the dollar resilient in the medium term.
Meanwhile, the ECB’s cautious stance and ongoing inflation risks across the eurozone continue to cap euro strength. The divergence in tone between the Fed and the ECB adds to the short-term volatility and uncertainty around EURUSD’s direction.
📉 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 + H4 Timeframe)
EURUSD has faked a breakout above the 1.1310–1.1320 resistance zone and is now pulling back to the key structure support around 1.1279 — a critical short-term level.
📌 Key Observations:
Bearish engulfing candle formed on H1 after price rejected the upper zone → potential reversal signal.
EMA 13 is crossing below EMA 34 → suggesting short-term downside pressure.
A confirmed H1 close below 1.1279 opens room for deeper retracement towards 1.1234 (previous demand/FVG area).
If momentum builds, we could see a broader correction toward 1.1148 in the coming days.
⚙️ TRADE STRATEGY FOR TODAY
🔻 PRIMARY SCENARIO – SELL THE RALLY
Entry Zone: 1.1315 – 1.1318 (near FVG + fake breakout zone)
Stop Loss: 1.1360
Take Profit Targets:
→ TP1: 1.1279
→ TP2: 1.1234
→ TP3: 1.1148
🔹 ALTERNATE SCENARIO – BUY SCALP ON STRONG REACTION
Buy Entry: 1.1234 – 1.1230 (only with bullish M15 confirmation)
Stop Loss: 1.1210
Take Profit: 1.1279 → 1.1300
🧠 STRATEGIC INSIGHT
A D1 candle close below 1.1234 will confirm a structure break and likely initiate a deeper downward trend.
On the flip side, if 1.1234 holds and US jobless claims disappoint later today, EURUSD may recover back to test 1.131x.
Market sentiment is highly reactive — stay flexible and prioritize price action confirmation.
📌 FINAL THOUGHTS:
EURUSD is at a pivotal point — either confirming a new downtrend or bouncing back within the current range. This is a trader’s market: clear key levels, disciplined risk management, and adaptive execution are essential.
📈 Follow for real-time chart updates, FVG mapping, and more daily trading setups.
Stay smart, stay sharp. Risk management first.
EURUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD has followed our expectations beautifully, bouncing strongly off a key support zone near 1.1270. This zone was previously a tough resistance which the pair broke through, and it’s now acting as a strong demand area. The latest bullish engulfing candle from this region signals solid buying pressure, confirming that bulls are stepping in to protect this structure. I’m now targeting a move toward the 1.17 level, which aligns with the previous high and the next major resistance on the chart.
From a macro perspective, the euro is showing resilience amid recent ECB policy comments, where officials have adopted a cautious but steady tone. Inflation remains persistent enough to delay aggressive rate cuts, keeping EUR demand intact. Meanwhile, the dollar is seeing renewed selling interest as market expectations shift toward a Fed pause, especially after softer US economic indicators including retail sales and jobless claims. This divergence is likely to support further upside in EURUSD.
Technically, this is a classic textbook retest of broken resistance turned support, backed by momentum indicators such as RSI now bouncing from mid-range and MACD showing signs of a potential bullish crossover. Volume has spiked at the support zone, confirming institutional participation. As long as EURUSD holds above 1.1270, I remain bullish and see this move extending toward 1.17 over the coming sessions.
This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity with momentum aligning with structure. The breakout and retest scenario is fully intact, and fundamentals are now favoring a continuation to the upside. Traders and swing holders should keep this on their radar as EURUSD looks ready to climb further.
EUR-USD Potential Long! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in an
Uptrend and the pair made
A breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.1300 which is confirmed
So now the price is consolidating
Above the new support
And after a potential retest
Of the support level we are
Likely to see a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
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Check out other forecasts below too!
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GBP/CAD Poised for Breakout – What’s Next After 1.8600?1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT (Daily Chart)
GBP/CAD has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since early 2025. After hitting the lower bound of the channel around 1.8050 in May, price bounced sharply and regained strength, pushing back above the key 1.8400–1.8450 zone, now confirmed as new support.
Currently, price is approaching the 1.8600 area, which represents:
The upper boundary of the April–May consolidation range
A clear supply zone visible on the weekly chart
A technical resistance cluster (previous closes + Fibonacci levels)
The RSI shows growing momentum, yet not overbought, suggesting potential upside extension toward 1.8779, the monthly high.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 1.8600 – 1.8779 (extended target)
Support: 1.8401 (weekly) and 1.8250 (mid-range level)
Primary Trend: Bullish
Structure: Active ascending channel
2. INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING (COT REPORT – May 13, 2025)
CAD:
Non-Commercials (speculators) are heavily net short:
23,250 longs vs 105,466 shorts = -82,216 net
Weekly increase: +18,084 new shorts → clear rise in bearish pressure
Commercials (hedgers) are net long, typical of risk hedging, indicating an opposing view to speculators
GBP:
Non-Commercials are net long:
89,540 longs vs 62,324 shorts = +27,216 net, despite a minor weekly reduction (-4,844)
Commercials are net short, likely hedging strength in the pound
COT Takeaway:
Speculators are clearly favoring GBP strength vs CAD, while CAD is under heavy short pressure. This supports further upside in GBP/CAD.
3. RETAIL SENTIMENT
80% of retail traders are short GBP/CAD, with an average entry at 1.8551
20% long, with average entry at 1.8147
This extreme retail skew represents a contrarian bullish signal: the market may push higher to trigger stop-losses on poorly positioned shorts.
4. SEASONALITY
CAD in May:
Mixed behavior with a slight bearish/neutral tendency on 10y and 2y averages
Monthly average: as low as -0.0097 (10-year data)
GBP in May:
Historically one of the weakest months for the British pound
Average returns range between -0.015 and -0.0226
That said, 2025 appears to diverge from seasonal norms, with GBP showing relative strength across the board.
Seasonality Takeaway:
While seasonality favors CAD over GBP in May, this year’s price action and positioning override that pattern.
TRADING SUMMARY
🔹 Primary Bias: Moderately Bullish
🔹 Technical Outlook: Positive structure above key support at 1.8400
🔹 COT Insight: Supports upside due to aggressive CAD short buildup
🔹 Retail Sentiment: Skewed short → potential short squeeze
🔹 Seasonality: Bearish for GBP, but currently outweighed by fundamentals/positioning
SCENARIOS
📈 Bullish Scenario (preferred):
Break and hold above 1.8600 → acceleration toward 1.8779
Midway target: 1.8670 (psychological level)
Technical stop: Below 1.8400 (or trailing SL on breakout)
📉 Corrective Scenario:
Failure at 1.8600 → pullback to 1.8401 (bullish retest)
Deeper weakness only confirmed on break below 1.8250, which would invalidate the ascending channel
CONCLUSION
GBP/CAD is in a structurally bullish setup, backed by speculative favor toward GBP and an extreme short bias on CAD. Despite the unfavorable seasonality for GBP, the technical trend and positioning data justify a bullish outlook with a target at 1.8779, contingent on a confirmed break above 1.8600.
EURUSD H4 | Bullish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.2265, a pullback support that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Our take profit is set at 1.1426, an overlap resistance.
The stop loss is placed at 1.1193, a pullback resistance.
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Mid-Week FOREX Forecast: Will The USD Remain Weak?In this video, we will update Sunday's forecasts mid-week, and look for valid setup for the rest of the week ahead. The following FX markets will be analyzed:
In this video, we will analyze the following FX Majors markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
The expected short term bearishness in the USD came, but will it continue for the rest of the week? Wait patiently for the market to tip its hand, and trade accordingly. Have a plan in place if the protected low at 99.172 holds or folds.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Bearish reversal?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1424
1st Support: 1.1263
1st Resistance: 1.1557
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The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off overlap support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1267
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1140
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1425
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
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CADCHF update!!Good day traders, I’m back with yet another update on CadChf and if I can remember well I mentioned the first time I posted this setup that this one is special because it offer us opportunities to learn and get to see if what ICT(Micheal.J) says about his concepts true or not, for me they work!!
The first setup I posted here and the second one will both be tagged in the description below just to support my ideology and how I came about this setup. On the first setup there was a large wick that i stated should be considered as a Gap and we saw price close above it to balance that gap. And you move one TF higher on your weekly there you’ll see that price has failed multiple times to balance that weekly VI, back on our daily TF we can see that price did not fully trade through that 1st.PFVG and we want to see it come back to fully trade through the gap.
Overall bias is BUYSIDE LIQUIDITY!!
DUSKUSDTThis is a long-term analysis for the weekly time frame. Our guess is that the price will return from around 0.012 to 0.015 and even higher (completion of wave 4) and then complete its wave 5 at around 0.053 to 0.041.
If this happens, buying it spot is quite low-risk and we can even look at it for a long-term hold and an investment under one condition.
If this Elliott analysis is correct, the price could reclaim its new high within two years or more and even see numbers beyond it.
In terms of timing, late July and early August are a good time for the end of wave 4 and late 2025 and early 2026 are ideal times for the end of the hypothetical wave 5.
EURUSD Shows Signs of Reversal as Momentum Shifts HigherThe EURUSD is beginning to show signs of a reversal as momentum shifts and moves above its 10-day exponential moving average. The EURUSD has recently experienced a significant move since early February, rising to a high of 1.147, which resulted in it becoming overbought, touching its upper Bollinger band, and pushing the RSI above 70. Now, after a brief pullback, the EURUSD appears poised to make another push higher.
The EURUSD has now moved above its 10-day exponential moving average and its 20-day simple moving average. Additionally, it appears to have broken above a minor downtrend that began on 28 April. If this momentum continues, EURUSD could rise back towards resistance at the upper Bollinger band, around 1.145, and perhaps even retest the 1.157 peak seen on 21 April.
Perhaps more importantly, a short-term trend reversal is underway, with the Relative Strength Index breaking above a short-term downtrend that started on 21 April. If this trend break holds, it would indicate that the recent decline in EURUSD has likely ended, setting the stage for another move higher.
Also supporting a potential rebound and move higher is the successful bounce of EURUSD off its 38.2% retracement level, measured from the lows established on 3 February to the highs of 21 April. Combined with the factors mentioned earlier, this suggests the next move for EURUSD is likely upwards.
However, if support fails to hold and EURUSD falls below 1.105, it could decline further towards the next support at 1.075, which corresponds to the 61.8% retracement level from the 3 February lows.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
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EURUSD time for correctionMonthly
On the monthly timeframe, we came to the Premium zone and captured Monthly Fractal High, where previously there was predominance from the sell side.
Weekly
Price has formed a Weekly FVG, indicating strong dominance from the buy side. However, it is important to understand WHERE this has led us ? The current quotes are interesting for sellers. Hence, we should assume that the price may receive a counter offer from the sell side. It is logical to assume potential points A and B in this context.
Daily
Price has formed primary signs of change in the price delivery state:
- Bullish PD Array disrespecting
- BISI forming
- CISD forming
All this indicates a shift of initiative to the selling side, so it is logical to expect a continuation of the downward movement after interaction with the marked PD Array.
Also, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the price is within the Inside Bar for the 3rd day already. This means that recently the price has been held within the same values, which indicates a balance of power between buyers and sellers at the current quotes. In such a situation, all we have to do is to find the optimal area to continue the downward price formation.
EURUSD: Strong Bullish Sentiment! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.13276 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.13540.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️