EUR/USD Faces Key Resistance Amid Liquidity Grab ExpectationsEUR/USD is undergoing a pullback after reaching a one-month high of 1.0528, closing at 1.04658 on February 24, marking a 0.22% decline from the previous day. The euro's recent strength was driven by post-election stability in Germany, where centrist parties formed a coalition government, boosting market confidence. However, bullish momentum has stalled near key resistance levels around 1.0530 and 1.0560, with the pair struggling to sustain gains above the 100-day simple moving average.
From a technical standpoint, the price is approaching a significant supply zone, where a liquidity grab could occur before a potential downside move. Resistance in this area aligns with broader concerns over Germany's economic outlook and coalition negotiations, which could weaken the euro’s appeal. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, despite recent weakness due to declining consumer confidence, remains in a favorable position for a short-term recovery, adding further pressure on EUR/USD.
If the pair fails to break through resistance, a rejection could trigger a decline toward 1.0400, with further downside potential extending to 1.0283. Conversely, if buyers manage to push past the liquidity zone, the next upside targets lie at 1.0530 and 1.0560.
EURUSD
EURUSD 25 Feb 2025 W9 -Intraday Analysis- US Consumer ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Today economic news:
US : Consumer Confidence
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With this week open, price continued Bullish as expected and created another ii-BOS after which price started PB for the ii-BOS and reached the recent Demand which we could see the next Bullish move from.
3️⃣
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase
2️⃣
🔹After the 15m Bullish BOS, price initiated the Swing PB Phase.
🔹Price reached the 15m Swing EQ (50%) and turned Bullish after the INT structure changed to Bullish iBOS indicating that the Swing PB maybe over and we are currently starting the Swing Bullish continuation Phase.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish with the 15m / 4H INT & Swing are all Bullish.
🔹Price targets are 15m Weak INT High and ultimately 15m Weak Swing High.
How to Trade Ending Diagonal: EURUSDOne of my favorite EW patterns: Ending Diagonal
It usually appears in wave C or 5, we have wave C
It consists of five waves and each of them are three waves
All looks good as wave 5 is over wave 3 and Ending diagonal might be completed
as EWO oscillator already shows Bearish Divergence between wave 3 and 5
This educational post to show trade setup on this pattern
The bottom of wave b in wave 5 is a breakdown trigger (blue) as it means wave 5 is over
Confirmation is on breakdown of wave 4 (orange)
Target is at the start of the Ending Diagonal (green)
Bonus track:
One could consider sell on 61.8% Fib retracement as we see the first impulse down
and now we watch this two-legged pullback.
EURUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H1 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.0459, an overlap support.
Our take profit is set at 1.0501, a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fiboancci retracement.
The stop loss is placed at 1.0440, a pullback support level.
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ECB at a Crossroads Between Inflation Resurgence and Recession
The Eurozone CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.5% (previous: 2.4%, consensus: 2.5%), fueling concerns over inflation. Belgian central bank governor Pierre Wunsch emphasized the need for caution against excessive rate cuts without sufficient awareness of risks.
Meanwhile, Germany’s February Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 85.2 (previous: 85.2, consensus: 85.9), further exacerbating uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone economy.
After testing the resistance at 1.0530, EURUSD retreated below the EMA21. However, the price is still maintaining its bullish momentum above the ascending trendline. If EURUSD breaches above 1.0530, it could gain upward momentum toward 1.0630. Conversely, a break below 1.0455 and the trendline may lead to a further decline toward the support at 1.0400.
GBP/USD: Bullish Momentum Faces Key ResistanceGBP/USD has reached its highest point since mid-December at 1.2690, primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar. The pair has shown strong momentum, and as long as it holds above the key support at 1.2520, analysts see potential for further upside toward 1.2725. Positive UK economic data, including better-than-expected retail sales and inflation figures, have reinforced a bullish outlook for the pound. However, minor retracements have been observed, with slight declines following recent gains, such as the 0.05% drop on February 24. Market volatility remains a factor, with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices impacting the dollar’s strength. From a technical standpoint, the price is currently testing a resistance zone while approaching key moving averages, which could act as dynamic resistance. The presence of supply zones above suggests that the pair could face selling pressure before a potential continuation higher. If the price fails to sustain above the resistance area, a retracement toward the 1.2520 level and possibly deeper into the 1.2400 region could materialize. Despite the recent bullish momentum, caution is warranted due to broader market uncertainties, and future movements will depend on economic indicators from both the UK and the US, as well as overall market sentiment.
Sell Signal📉 EURUSD Sell Signal 📉
🔹 Wait for the best candle formation before entering the sell trade! Risk management is crucial.
🔹 The 1.04980 resistance zone is considered as the entry point.
🔹 Stop-loss is set at 1.05355 to minimize potential risks.
🔹 Target levels:
✅ First target: 1.04658
✅ Second target: 1.04133
⚠️ Always manage your risk! Make sure to get additional confirmations before entering the trade.
XAU/USD: Prepare for a new all-time high near $3000?! (READ)Gold's one-hour chart analysis indicates that the price has precisely followed our prior estimate, reaching the projected level of $2951. Comparing the last five assessments demonstrates the accuracy of these projections.
Gold is currently priced about $2947, down from $2951 when it peaked. I foresee a little retracement before another upward movement.
Short-term aims include $2954 and $2956.
Medium-term aims are $2966 and $2969.
Please support me with your likes and comments to encourage me to share more analysis with you and share your thoughts on the potential trend of this chart with me!
:
🚀 XAU/USD – Bullish or Bearish? Key Levels to Watch! 📊
💰 Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart Analysis
🔥 Key Observations:
🔹 BOS (Break of Structure) confirms strong market movement.
🔹 Bearish Order Block (OB) at the top suggests potential resistance.
🔹 Liquidity Grabs ($$$) & FVG (Fair Value Gaps) indicate smart money activity.
🔹 Bullish Rejection Blocks (30m & 1H TFs) could act as key demand zones.
📈 Possible Scenarios:
📌 Bullish Case: If price holds above the Bullish Rejection Block, we might see a push towards $2,950 - $2,960.
📌 Bearish Case: A rejection from the Bearish OB could send gold back towards $2,920 - $2,900.
🔔 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Resistance: $2,950 - $2,960
✅ Support: $2,920 - $2,900
💬 What’s your bias? Bullish or Bearish? Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️🔥
#gold #xauusd #forex #trading #priceaction #technicalanalysis
EURUSD - the upcoming US PCE & the ECB rate decisionAt the moment, we are seeing that the bulls are fighting hard to keep MARKETSCOM:EURUSD elevated. But they are struggling to overcome some key resistance barriers. But the upside doesn't look very promising, due to the upcoming US PCE numbers and the ECB rate decision. Let's dig into the possible near-term outcome scenarios for the $FX_IDC:EURUSD.
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EURUSDHello, Traders,
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EURUSD :
TimeFrame: 1W:
Possible price path
personal opinion!
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comment your opinions.
Wishing you profitable trading endeavors!
If this post was useful to you, do not forget to like and comment.❤️
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EURUSD Will it follow Trump's 1st Term??The EURUSD pair made a market bottom on January 13 2025 and in recent trade, it has been consolidating above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Interestingly enough, this is so far similar to the price action that preceded and followed Trump's 1st Term.
A 1D Death Cross took the market from the November 2016 elections to the January 2017 bottom. After a 1D RSI Double Top and Resistance rejection, the pair dropped again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but recovered to reach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in end of March 2017 and initiate an aggressive Channel Up that peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the September 2016 High.
If EURUSD continues to replicate Trump's Year 1 of his 1st Term, it is possible to see the price reach 1.19000 by the end of 2025, although of course we can't rely solely on repetitive patterns, but have to go along macro reports and policies one at a time.
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BURGERUSDT Falling Wedge Breakout – 120%-130% Gains BURGERUSDT has recently completed a breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern, and it has already retested the breakout level successfully. A Falling Wedge breakout often signals a shift from a downtrend to a potential uptrend, and this retest confirms that the breakout level is now acting as a strong support. With the price stabilizing and holding above this key support level, BURGERUSDT is set to continue its bullish move. The projected gains from this point are significant, with an estimated range of 120% to 130%+, as the market looks ready to resume its upward momentum.
The volume accompanying this breakout is a key indicator of the strength behind the move. Good volume during the breakout and retest confirms that market participants are supporting this price action, and the move is not likely to be a false signal. With the retest successfully holding at support, BURGERUSDT has solidified its position for the next leg up. This suggests that the asset is primed for continued growth as it begins its upward trajectory, offering substantial gains to those who act at this critical point.
Investors have been showing increased interest in BURGERUSDT, recognizing the potential for growth after the breakout and retest. As more traders see the strength in the price action and volume, more buying pressure could be expected, further propelling the price higher. With the breakout behind it and strong investor confidence, BURGERUSDT is well-positioned for a rally toward its projected 120% to 130%+ target. The technicals are looking favorable, and the market sentiment appears to be positive.
Traders should keep an eye on BURGERUSDT as it consolidates above the retest level. Any signs of further bullish continuation could provide an opportunity to enter before the price moves higher. With the technical setup and market dynamics aligning, BURGERUSDT represents an exciting opportunity for those looking to capture high returns in the next phase of its rally.
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EUR/USD: Navigating Supply Zones and Future TrendsThis morning, the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.05279, experiencing an initial push before retreating to around 1.04700. As I draft this analysis, the market is exhibiting a rejection spike, indicating volatile trading conditions. Currently, the price is lingering within a supply zone established last week, where we witnessed a notable bearish impulse followed by a sharp bullish reversal leading us to our present levels.
In the absence of significant macroeconomic updates or policy news to influence the currency markets, we will be closely observing any developments surrounding tariffs and the US's stance on European security as they unfold this week.
Additionally, the upcoming PCE inflation figures from the United States, scheduled for release on Friday, will be under the scrutinization of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials, as usual.
Our outlook remains robust, as we anticipate a potential bearish trend in the market. The current price resides within a supply area, supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a bullish sentiment among retail traders. Furthermore, our forecasting indicators suggest a looming bearish trend, consistent with patterns observed over the past decade during this timeframe. We are positioning ourselves for a bearish week ahead.
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USDCHF Bullish Flag: Breakout Potential Toward 0.92USDCHF is currently trading at 0.899 and forming a bullish flag pattern, signaling a potential breakout toward the 0.92 target. The bullish flag is a strong continuation pattern that occurs after a sharp upward move, followed by a consolidation phase. If the price successfully breaks above the flag’s resistance, it could trigger a new bullish wave, driving USDCHF higher.
Technically, the bullish flag suggests that buyers are accumulating positions before the next breakout. A confirmed breakout above the flag’s upper trendline, with increased volume, could validate the uptrend. Traders should watch key resistance zones and look for strong bullish candlestick formations to confirm the breakout momentum toward 0.92.
On the fundamental side, the US dollar remains strong due to the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. If economic data from the US continues to show resilience, the dollar could gain further strength against the Swiss franc. Additionally, the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) monetary policy stance, which has remained relatively dovish, could contribute to CHF weakness, supporting the bullish outlook for USDCHF.
In summary, USDCHF is currently consolidating within a bullish flag, preparing for a potential breakout toward 0.92. A strong move above resistance, combined with bullish fundamentals, could accelerate the upside momentum. Traders should keep an eye on US economic data and risk sentiment to confirm the trade setup.
EURO LIFTS POST-GERMAN VOTE—BUT USD BITES BACKEURO LIFTS POST-GERMAN VOTE—BUT USD BITES BACK FX:EURUSD
(1/9)
Good morning, Tradingview Fam! Germany’s election—Merz and CDU on top—gave the euro a quick jolt, up 0.44% to $1.0507 📈🔥. Markets dig the stability vibe, but it’s fading fast—let’s unpack this tussle! 🚀
(2/9) – ELECTION SPARK
• Euro Bump: Hit $1.0530 overnight—election cheer 💥
• Markets: DAX futures up 1.2%, EUROSTOXX 50 +0.66% 📊
• Fade: Now at $1.0480—USD’s flexing back
Brief lift—stability’s sweet, but not sticky!
(3/9) – TECH TELLTALE
• Resistance: $1.0500-1.0510 wall holds firm 🌍
• Support: $1.0470 pivot, then $1.0440 if it slips 🚗
• Charts: Double top whispers at $1.0530 🌟
Traders on X see a retreat—bearish juice brewing?
(4/9) – USD PUSHBACK
• Jobless Claims: Weak last week, USD softened a tad 📉
• Fed: No rush to cut—rates steady, Nvidia looms
• Muscle: Dollar’s clawing back—ballast holds
AMEX:USD ’s got grit—euro’s nudge ain’t enough! 🌍
(5/9) – RISKS IN PLAY
• Volatility: PMI data, Nvidia earnings stir the pot ⚠️
• Sentiment: X split—liquidity grab or bear turn? 🏛️
• Levels: Below $1.0470 opens $1.0390 risk 📉
Quick sprint—can euro keep the pace?
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Election Lift: CDU win sparks euro hope 🌟
• Markets: European futures pop—optimism flows 🔍
• Cash: $1.0530 peak shows buyer guts 🚦
Euro’s got some spark—briefly lit!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: $1.0510 cap, USD fights back 💸
• Opportunities: PMI beats could push $1.0600 🌍
Will euro dodge the dollar’s jab?
(8/9) – Euro’s election bump—what’s your call?
1️⃣ Bullish—Stability wins out.
2️⃣ Neutral—Blip, not a trend.
3️⃣ Bearish—USD takes the ring.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
Euro spiked to $1.0507 on Germany’s vote—CDU’s steady hand 🌍🪙. Now $1.0480—USD’s got claws. Resistance bites, downside looms—blip or bust?
EUR/USD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Bearish trend on EUR/USD, defined by the red colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is overbought based on the BB upper band proximity, makes me expect a bearish rebound from the resistance line above and a retest of the local target below at 1.024.
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MY WEEKLY FORECASTING AS WELL AS AND TODAY TARGET INCULDED 2970XAUUSD market currently on 2945.00 Acoording to time frame H4 bullish trend if market WILL break the key point 2955. then it WILL BE TOUCH on 2970 if MARKET break my resistance level then IT WILL BE BEARISH on 2900.00
target 1 2960
target 2 2980
target 3 3000
resistance level 2930
Bitcoin’s Wild Swings & Key Setups in Forex & Gold (#6)Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster over the past few days, and I’m sure many of you have had your stop losses hit. Let’s break down the reasons behind this volatility and what’s next.
📊 BTC – Expanding Triangle = High Volatility
BTC was set to confirm an uptrend after breaking above $98,500, but then came the Bybit hack.
📌 What Happened?
🔻 On February 21, 2025, hackers stole $1.5 billion from Bybit’s Ethereum cold wallet.
🔻 Attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group, this triggered a market-wide sell-off.
🔻 BTC dropped, then settled into an expanding triangle.
📉 What’s important about this pattern?
Support & resistance levels lose significance.
Win rate drops, and volatility increases.
High probability of stop hunts & fakeouts.
🚨 My approach?
No trades inside the triangle.
Long above $97,987 (4H) or after first confirmed higher high & low.
Short below $95K (key support in 4H).
📊 DXY – Still in a Downtrend
DXY continues its price correction, as we anticipated in previous breakdowns.
📌 Bias: Still bearish in the short term unless we reclaim 107.391.
📉 Until then, I remain focused on setups favoring a weaker USD.
🟡 Gold (XAU/USD) – Strong Trend, but Watch for Weakness
Gold remains firmly in an uptrend, but some exhaustion signs are emerging.
📌 Trade Setup:
✅ Long Trigger (4H): Above 2945
❌ Stop Loss: Below 2916.42
📌 Key Reminder:
🔹 A trader’s mindset must be separate from an analyst’s mindset.
🔹 Follow your strategy, take trades, and accept stop losses without emotional bias.
🔹 I’ll be posting an in-depth article on this today.
📈 EUR/USD – Setting Up for a Major Trend Shift?
📌 Daily Timeframe:
EUR/USD has been in a strong downtrend but is now in a correction phase.
A shift in trend is possible if we get a daily close above 1.05217.
📌 4H Trade Setup:
✅ Long Entry: Above 1.05198
❌ Stop Loss: Below 1.04483
Final Thoughts
⚠ BTC is in a highly volatile phase – trade with caution.
⚠ DXY weakness favors long setups in EUR/USD and gold.
⚠ If you’re not using risk management, these setups may not be suitable for you.
⚠ Separate your trader mindset from your analyst mindset
I’m Skeptic —trade smart, stay profitable. See you tomorrow.
EUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest LevelEUR/USD Chart Analysis: Exchange Rate Hits Highest Level Since Early February
The EUR/USD chart shows the euro rising above its previous February peak of 1.05155, set on the 14th.
On one hand, the euro's strength is driven by Germany’s national elections over the weekend, where the opposition conservatives, led by Friedrich Merz, secured victory as expected. Investors are now focused on how quickly Merz’s party can form a coalition government to implement much-needed economic reforms.
On the other hand, the US dollar index has fallen to its lowest level since mid-December.
According to Reuters, the dollar’s weakness is influenced by:
→ Shifting market perceptions of its value amid Trump’s tariff policies in global trade.
→ Declining US Treasury yields due to expectations of further Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Chart
Price movements form an upward channel (marked in blue), but the red arrow highlights bearish activity near resistance levels at:
→ The yearly high around 1.05333.
→ The median line of the channel.
Given the lower liquidity at the start of trading, the initial breakout above the psychological 1.05000 level may have been false. Potential bearish pressure could push EUR/USD towards a support zone, including:
→ The 1.0400 level.
→ The lower boundary of a broader channel (marked in orange).
If bulls intend to maintain their February momentum, signs of buying activity may emerge near the lower boundary of the blue channel.
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EUR/GBP: Key Support Test Amid Bearish PressureThe analysis of EUR/GBP as of February 24, 2025, presents an interesting technical outlook. The price is testing a key support area around 0.8297 after a modest recovery from the 0.8271 lows. The current setup suggests a potential reaction in this zone, with the possibility of a technical rebound towards higher levels or a more significant bearish breakdown.
From a technical perspective, several key areas stand out: the upper resistance in the 0.8440-0.8460 range represents a critical level for a bullish recovery, while the lower support around 0.8265-0.8240 could act as a catalyst for further downside momentum if broken. Moving average analysis indicates persistent bearish pressure, with both the 50 and 200-period moving averages sloping downward. This reinforces the idea that, despite recent rebounds, the dominant trend remains bearish in the medium term.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, expectations regarding the UK and Eurozone economic outlook are shaping the pair's direction. UK inflation is showing signs of recovery, providing some support for the pound, but uncertainties related to economic growth and Bank of England policies could hinder a sustained strengthening of the British currency. On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing challenges linked to growth stagnation, and the ECB may maintain an accommodative policy to stimulate the economy. These factors create an unstable balance that could lead to heightened volatility in the coming days.
Technical forecasts suggest two possible scenarios: a temporary rebound towards 0.8340-0.8360 before another test of the lows or a direct break below 0.8265, which could open the door for a decline towards 0.8240-0.8220.