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EURUSD

Euro Slips to $1.13 After Strong AprilThe euro dipped toward $1.13 on May 1 after a 5% April gain, as the dollar found support in Trump’s optimism about trade deals with India, Japan, South Korea, and China. Markets awaited Friday’s U.S. jobs data for Fed policy clues. The U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in Q1, partly due to import spikes ahead of expected tariffs. Meanwhile, the Eurozone grew 0.4%, driven by strong domestic demand. German inflation eased to 2.1%, though core rose slightly, while France’s annual rate held at 0.8%. Resistance levels are seen at 1.1460, then 1.1580 and 1.1680, while support rests at 1.1260, followed by 1.1200 and 1.1150.
by ChartMage
EURUSD DETAILED ANALYSIS FUNDAMENTALS AND CRYPTOEURUSD is currently trading around 1.13, having completed a successful retest of the previous breakout zone. The pair is now showing signs of bullish momentum, suggesting a potential move toward the 1.17 target. From a technical perspective, the recent price action indicates a strong support level around 1.13, where buyers have stepped in to halt the previous decline. This support aligns with the 50-day moving average, reinforcing its significance. The bullish engulfing candlestick pattern formed at this level further confirms the likelihood of an upward move. Fundamentally, the euro has been supported by stronger-than-expected economic data from the Eurozone, including a 0.4% GDP growth in Q1 2025, surpassing forecasts. Additionally, the European Central Bank's recent rate cuts have provided a more accommodative monetary environment, boosting investor confidence. Conversely, the U.S. dollar faces headwinds due to concerns over economic slowdown and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. In summary, the confluence of technical and fundamental factors suggests that EURUSD is poised for a bullish move toward the 1.17 target. Traders should monitor key resistance levels and economic indicators to confirm the continuation of this upward trend.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
2
XAUUSD DETAILED ANALYSIS TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTALS XAUUSD is currently trading around the 3256 level and is clearly respecting a descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe. The price is now pushing higher from the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. Based on the current technical structure, I am anticipating a clean breakout above the channel resistance, with the next key target at 3300. The marked purple resistance zone around 3310–3320 also acts as a magnet for price once the breakout is confirmed. On the fundamental side, gold remains supported by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and speculation around the Fed's next rate decision. With recent U.S. economic data showing mixed signals—strong labor market figures but slowing inflation momentum—the market is pricing in fewer rate hikes, which weakens the USD and favors upside in XAUUSD. Additionally, central bank gold demand remains strong globally, acting as a long-term support for bullion. Traders are currently reacting to a softening dollar index and treasury yields, which further underpins bullish sentiment in gold. A clear break above the upper boundary of this channel, ideally with strong volume confirmation, could set the stage for a swift move to retest the 3300 psychological level. From a risk-reward perspective, the breakout trade setup here aligns well with institutional strategies that favor trend continuation post-consolidation. In summary, XAUUSD is trading inside a clean descending channel, with buyers stepping in aggressively near the support zone. A breakout above the structure could trigger a bullish continuation move toward 3300, backed by strong macro tailwinds and technical confirmation. This setup offers an excellent opportunity for swing traders to capitalize on short-term momentum. Are you also tracking gold fundamentals this week?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
2
EURUSD - CONSOLIDATION TO MANIPULATION?OANDA:EURUSD is currently going through consolidation on daily time frame, i expect price to manipulate a little by taking out the relatively equal lows below to tap into the weekly and daily fair value gap below around 1.12000 price level as illustrated in the chart attached. Overall, my bias on EURUSD still remain bullish until the weekly time frame shift market structure to bearish. Monthly bullish, weekly bullish, now I will wait for daily to correct and turn bullish back for me to take a trade.
Long
by Elijahenoch7
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 2, 2025 EURUSDThe EUR/USD pair attracted moderate buying interest during the Asian trading session on Friday and demonstrates a desire to consolidate above the psychologically important level of 1.13000. At the moment, spot quotes seem to have broken a three-day series of declines, reaching a two-week low near 1.12650, recorded on Thursday, amid repositioning of market participants awaiting the publication of key macroeconomic indicators from the Eurozone and the United States. Representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB) earlier expressed concern over the risks of lower inflationary pressures in the region. In this regard, market participants are waiting with special attention for the preliminary data on the consumer price index (CPI) in the eurozone. Indicators that turned out to be lower than forecasts may strengthen expectations of the ECB key interest rate reduction by 25 basis points following the results of the meeting in July. Such a development could put pressure on the single European currency and contribute to the resumption of the EUR/USD corrective movement from the level of 1.1575 - the maximum since November 2021, recorded last month. In the United States of America, investors' attention is focused on the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report (NFP), according to forecasts of which the US economy could create only 130 thousand new jobs in April, which is significantly lower than the March value of 228 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate, according to preliminary estimates, will remain at 4.2%. These data may have a significant impact on expectations of further monetary policy steps by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which, in turn, will affect the dynamics of the US dollar and determine the short-term trajectory of EUR/USD. Additionally, the persistent expectations of a looser monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) restrain the potential for strengthening of the US dollar, despite its three-day rise to local highs. In particular, market participants have increased expectations for four 25 basis point interest rate cuts before the end of this year, after recently released statistics pointed to an unexpected contraction in US GDP - for the first time since 2022. As a result, the dollar bulls' positions remain limited, which provides support to the EUR/USD pair. Trading recommendation: BUY 1.13100, SL 1.27500, TP 1.14200
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Is Platinum About to Explode? Imminent Rally!Platinum (PL1!) is currently in a technically and macroeconomically compelling setup. After a prolonged consolidation between 872–921, price has reacted strongly, forming a clear accumulation pattern supported by institutional positioning and favorable seasonality. 📈 1. Technical Analysis: Accumulation and Potential Breakout The weekly chart shows a strong demand zone that has been defended multiple times over the past year. Following a deep pullback in April, price has formed a harmonic compression structure and broke to the upside with conviction. The area between 1010 and 1040 stands out as the first major historical supply zone — previously rejected but now looking increasingly vulnerable. 📉 2. COT Report: Institutions Repositioning Long The COT data as of April 22 shows a clear increase in long positions from commercial traders (+1,177 contracts), while non-commercials maintain a net long bias. Total open interest rose by over 1,500 contracts — a strong sign of renewed speculative interest in Platinum. ✅ Conclusion Platinum is showing strong confluence across technicals, institutional positioning, and historical seasonal behavior. The probability of a bullish extension in Q2 2025 is high. This is a setup worth watching closely in the coming days.
NYMEX:PL1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 1.1313, which is a pullback resistance. Our take profit will be at 1.1144, a pullback support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibo retracement. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1473, a pullback resistance level. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
USD/JPY : Get Ready for another Rally! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the USD/JPY chart on the daily timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price has finally started to rise. So far, it has successfully reached the 143.5 and 144 targets, and extended up to 145.76, delivering a solid 350-pip move. The main analysis remains valid, and I expect the price to hit the next target at 146.2 soon. The total gain from this setup has now exceeded 570 pips, and the key upcoming supply zones are at 146.2, 148.7, and 150. This analysis will be updated accordingly! THE MAIN ANALYSIS : Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Long
by ArmanShabanTrading
1
BTC - Inversion Play at Resistance With IFVG Breakdown PotentialPrice has tapped into a previously established resistance zone and is now showing signs of exhaustion. A reactive short setup is in play, contingent on further bearish confirmation. --- 1. Resistance Zone — Key Supply Area The marked red zone above highlights: - Repeated Rejections: Price has failed multiple times to break and hold above this level. - Order Block & Liquidity: Likely an area where institutional selling interest remains. This zone offers a prime location for short setups, especially if price fails to hold above it and begins to roll over. --- 2. IFVG Inversion — Breaker-Type Setup We are watching for: - Inversion of a Bullish IFVG: A common signal of shifting order flow. - Breaker Behavior: A previously supportive zone now acting as resistance — a hallmark of smart money reversals. This structure suggests an intent to trap late longs and transition into lower pricing. --- 3. Internal Liquidity Sweep — Fuel for the Drop The local high served to: - Clear Short-Term Liquidity: Wick just above resistance suggests engineered breakout bait. - Trigger Buyer Commitment: Which could now get trapped if momentum fails. This liquidity event sets up the conditions for a more sustained push downward. --- 4. Downside Targeting the Discount Zone Price is projected to revisit the blue discount zone: - 0.618–0.65 Retracement Levels: Classic Fibonacci discount area often targeted after a premium rejection. - Reaccumulation Potential: Watch for signs of buyer interest returning here. This forms the logical destination for price following a confirmed rejection. --- 5. Summary: - Price Rejecting Resistance & IFVG Inversion Signals Reversal Bias - Liquidity Sweep Confirms Trap Setup - Discount Zone Below Offers High-Probability Reaction Area A strong short scenario may unfold if bearish order flow confirms beneath the resistance region.
Short
by Louigi_24
28
Gold Price (XAUUSD) Retesting Fibonacci Support ZoneGold (XAUUSD) is currently in a technical phase that aligns with a classic **retesting formation**, where price action returns to previous support levels before resuming its bullish trend. After hitting a recent high near 3,350–3,400, gold has begun a healthy retracement, with key Fibonacci levels acting as potential demand zones. The 3,200–3,150 range appears to be a strong support zone, and if this level holds, it could trigger the next leg up in the bullish trend. Volume remains supportive, suggesting market interest is still intact, and buyers may be preparing for re-entry. This consolidation phase could offer an excellent opportunity for smart money accumulation, particularly as gold respects major technical levels and Fibonacci retracement zones. From a macro perspective, continued geopolitical tensions, inflationary concerns, and central bank accumulation of gold provide a strong fundamental backdrop that supports a long-term bullish outlook. If gold maintains above the key 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, we could soon witness a new wave targeting the 3,350 to 3,400 resistance zone once again. Market participants should watch for confirmation through bullish candlestick patterns and increasing volume in the coming sessions. A break above 3,275 would further validate bullish continuation and may serve as a trigger point for momentum traders. The broader trend remains intact, and current price action fits the pattern of a technical breather before the next impulsive rally. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Alpha-GoldFX
BTCUSDT forming a Bullish Flag patternBitcoin (BTCUSDT) is currently forming a classic bullish flag pattern on the daily chart, often regarded as a strong continuation setup in technical analysis. The breakout from the prior descending wedge has already provided strong bullish momentum, and now BTC is consolidating just below key resistance, signaling the next possible leg upward. With volume steadily increasing during this consolidation phase, this flag pattern holds significant potential for a breakout rally. The price structure reflects healthy accumulation, where smart money seems to be stepping in before the anticipated surge. The flagpole leading up to the pattern shows strong bullish dominance, and the sideways flag structure suggests that Bitcoin is merely taking a breather before pushing higher. A confirmed breakout from the flag could target an upside of 20% to 30%+, aligning with the projected price move shown on the chart. Fundamentally, Bitcoin continues to gain mainstream traction, and the broader crypto sentiment is turning positive again. The volume patterns and technical indicators reinforce the bullish outlook. Investors are showing renewed interest, especially as BTC holds above key psychological and structural levels, which adds confidence to the continuation narrative. This setup is ideal for breakout traders and investors looking to capitalize on short to mid-term gains. If the bullish flag plays out as expected, BTC could make another significant move toward its all-time high zone. ✅ Show your support by hitting the like button and ✅ Leaving a comment below! (What is You opinion about this Coin) Your feedback and engagement keep me inspired to share more insightful market analysis with you!
Long
by Alpha-GoldFX
XAU/USD: High Volatility is Expected! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price began rising from the $3310 zone yesterday and reached $3330, delivering a 200-pip gain. After that, selling pressure took over, and gold is now trading around $3277. Given the current market structure and today's important news events, I expect high volatility in both bullish and bearish directions. One of the key liquidity pools likely to be targeted today lies below $3259, and before any potential drop, we may see the liquidity gap between $3288 and $3303 being filled. Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by ArmanShabanTrading
19
EURUSD Outlook: Head & Shoulder or Bear Trap?Mirroring the DXY, the EURUSD appears to be holding below the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern formed from the 1.1570 highs. However, it still requires confirmation with a sustained move below 1.1270 to extend the forecast toward 1.1140 and 1.1040. On the upside, if the 1.1270 support holds, EURUSD may reverse course, confirming a failed pattern and potentially rebounding toward 1.1420, 1.1470, and 1.1570. From a monthly perspective, the EURUSD is pulling back above the upper boundary of the long-respected channel extending from the 2008 highs, currently holding near the key 1.1270 support. This may signal a short-term trend reset before markets regain directional clarity. Written by: Razan Hilal, CMT
by FOREXcom
Dollar Doomsayers Are Dead Wrong: Why USD Will Crush It in 2025.Road To a Million fam! It’s your boy, back from the wilderness after a hiatus that felt longer than a bear market in a crypto crash. I’m pumped to be here, ready to drop some truth bombs, dissect the markets, and—most importantly—help us all make some serious bank. Buckle up, because there’s a ton to unpack, and we’re diving headfirst into the biggest elephant in the room: the U.S. dollar (USD). Spoiler alert: it’s not dead, it’s not even close to dead, and anyone saying otherwise is probably shorting it while crying into their latte. Let’s get into it! The Dollar Drama: What’s the Deal? If you’ve been anywhere near a financial newsfeed in 2025, you’ve heard the doomsday choir singing, “The dollar is done! Kaput! Finito!” The Dollar Index (DXY) is down 8% this year, and the Twitter (sorry, X) finance bros are out here proclaiming the end of the greenback’s reign as the world’s reserve currency. They’re screaming about de-dollarization, BRICS taking over, and gold mooning like it’s 1971. Meanwhile, I’m over here sipping my coffee, looking at the charts, and laughing. Why? Because the dollar’s obituary is the most exaggerated piece of fan fiction since Twilight. Let’s cut through the noise and get to the meat. The USD has taken a beating, sure, but an 8% drop in a year doesn’t mean it’s packing its bags and moving to the Bahamas. The dollar is still the king of global trade, the backbone of international commerce, and the currency you need if you’re, say, India buying oil from Saudi Arabia. No one’s trading rupees for barrels, folks. They’re selling rupees, buying dollars, and getting that black gold. That’s the reality, and it’s not changing anytime soon. So, why the panic? Why is everyone acting like the dollar’s about to be replaced by Dogecoin or a shiny new BRICS coin? Let’s break it down, roast the naysayers, and then talk about how we’re gonna make money off this drama. Because, let’s be real, that’s why you’re here. Why the Dollar’s Down (But Not Out) First, let’s address why the DXY is down 8% in 2025. The Dollar Index, for those new to the game, measures the USD against a basket of major currencies—56% euros, plus some GBP, JPY, CHF, CAD, AUD, and a sprinkle of others. It’s like a currency Thunderdome: one dollar enters, a bunch of others try to take it down. When the DXY drops, it means the USD is weakening relative to these currencies. But why? Interest Rate Shenanigans: Central banks are the puppet masters of forex markets, and their interest rate moves are like plot twists in a soap opera. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points to 4.25–4.5% on December 18, 2024, signaling a slightly dovish stance. Meanwhile, the Eurozone slashed its rate to 2.25% on April 17, 2025. That’s a 2% differential in favor of the U.S., which is huge in forex land. But the market’s been spooked by the Fed’s cut, thinking it’s the start of a softening cycle, while other central banks (like the ECB) are also cutting, creating a weird global rate limbo. Inflation Tug-of-War: Inflation in the U.S. is at 2.4%, while the Eurozone’s at 2.2%. That means U.S. investors are getting a real return of about 2% (4.25% interest minus 2.4% inflation), while Eurozone investors are basically breaking even (2.25% minus 2.2% inflation). Money flows where it’s treated best, and right now, the U.S. is the VIP lounge. But short-term traders are freaking out over inflation fears and potential rate cuts, which has pressured the USD. Trump’s Tariff Tantrums: Oh, Donald. The man’s back in the White House, tweeting (X-ing?) up a storm about “Making America Great Again” with tariffs left, right, and center. His trade war threats—10–20% tariffs on imports, 60% on Chinese goods—have markets jittery. A stronger dollar could make U.S. exports pricier, so some traders are betting on a weaker USD to balance things out. Spoiler: I think they’re wrong, and I’ll explain why later. De-Dollarization Hype: The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and friends) has been pushing for a non-USD trade system, with talks of a new currency or gold-backed system. This has fueled the “dollar is doomed” narrative. But let’s be real: a BRICS coin? Good luck getting China and India to agree on anything, let alone a unified currency. And gold? It’s ripping higher (more on that later), but it’s not replacing the USD for global trade anytime soon. So, yeah, the dollar’s been punched in the face a few times this year. But it’s like Rocky Balboa—it’s taken worse beatings and still comes out swinging. The question is: Is this the end of the dollar’s dominance, or is it just warming up for a comeback? Let’s look at the big picture. The Dollar Ain’t Going Anywhere (Here’s Why) Listen up, because this is where I get on my soapbox and preach. The dollar is not dead. It’s not even on life support. If anything, it’s doing push-ups in the gym, getting ready to flex on the haters. Here’s why I’m so bullish on the USD, and why you should be too. 1. The Reserve Currency Superpower The USD is the world’s reserve currency, and that’s not just a fancy title—it’s a superpower. Over 88% of global transactions (SWIFT data, 2024) are settled in USD. When Russia wants to sell gas to China, they often price it in dollars. When Brazil buys soybeans from Argentina, guess what? Dollars. Even countries with beef against the U.S. (looking at you, Iran) hold USD reserves because it’s the only currency universally accepted for trade. Why does this matter? Because every country needs USD to play in the global sandbox. India’s not paying Canada for oil in rupees. They’re converting to USD or dipping into their dollar reserves. This creates constant demand for the greenback, and that demand isn’t vanishing overnight. Could it fade in a decade? Maybe. But in 2025? No chance. And let’s talk alternatives. Bitcoin? Ha! It’s a speculative asset, not a stable currency for trade. Gold? It’s mooning (up 25% in 2025, per Bloomberg), but you’re not paying for a tanker of crude with gold bars. A BRICS currency? Good luck getting 10+ countries with conflicting agendas to agree on a logo, let alone a monetary policy. The USD’s reserve status is a fortress, and it’s not crumbling anytime soon. 2. Interest Rate Domination Let’s talk money—specifically, where it flows. The U.S. has a Fed funds rate of 4.25–4.5%, while the Eurozone’s at 2.25%. That’s a 2% gap, which is like the Grand Canyon in forex terms. If you’re an investor, where are you parking your cash? In the U.S., where you’re earning a 2% real return (4.25% minus 2.4% inflation), or in the Eurozone, where you’re getting a big fat zero (2.25% minus 2.2% inflation)? This is why the Eurozone’s in trouble. The ECB’s stuck in a trap—low rates to prop up struggling economies like Spain and Italy, but that makes the euro less attractive. Meanwhile, the U.S. is the cool kid at the party, attracting capital like moths to a flame. And don’t forget: the Eurozone’s a mess of 20 countries with one monetary policy but wildly different fiscal policies. Spain’s productivity isn’t Germany’s, no matter what the ECB pretends. The euro’s gonna weaken against the USD, mark my words. 3. Trump’s Dollar Rocket Fuel Love him or hate him, Trump’s policies are about to light a fire under the USD. His “America First” agenda includes bringing manufacturing back to the U.S., which means building factories from scratch. Those factories need raw materials—steel, copper, you name it. And guess what currency they’ll use to buy that stuff? Ding, ding, ding—USD! Plus, Trump’s tariffs (10–20% on imports, 60% on China, per Reuters) will reduce U.S. imports, meaning fewer dollars flowing out of the country. But foreign countries still need USD to repay their dollar-denominated debts (global USD debt is $13 trillion, per the BIS). Less USD supply, same demand? That’s a recipe for a stronger dollar. Trump’s shaking markets like a toddler with a snow globe, but in this case, it’s bullish for the USD. 4. Contrarian Goldmine Here’s a little trading wisdom: when everyone’s screaming the same thing, they’re usually wrong. Right now, 99% of the finance world (or at least the loud ones on X) is saying the dollar’s toast. That kind of extreme sentiment is a red flag. Markets love to screw over the crowd, and when everyone’s shorting the USD, it means the bottom is either in or damn close. I’m calling it: the DXY’s either bottomed already or will soon, probably around 97. When sentiment’s this bearish, it’s like the market’s handing you a gift-wrapped opportunity. And I’m not about to let it pass. The Charts Don’t Lie: DXY Technical Breakdown Alright, enough macro talk—let’s get to the fun stuff: charts. I’ve been staring at these squiggly lines for 20+ years, and they’re telling me the USD’s about to go on a tear. Let’s break it down, from the big picture to the nitty-gritty. Long-Term View: The 20-Year Monthly Chart Zoom out, fam. When in doubt, zoom out. I’m looking at the DXY on a monthly chart, going back to 2005. Each candle is one month, and the trend is crystal clear: up. The DXY’s been cruising in an ascending channel for two decades, like a train chugging along at 200 miles an hour. Sure, it’s hit some bumps—2008, 2011, 2020—but the direction’s undeniable. Right now, the DXY’s sitting around 100, down from its 2024 highs. But it’s still within that bullish channel. I’m drawing trendlines here: a lower trendline connecting the lows (around 97–98) and an upper trendline around 120–125. The price is hugging the lower end, which screams “buying opportunity” to me. My big-picture call? The DXY’s heading to 115–117 by late 2026 or early 2027, maybe even sooner (Jan 2026, anyone?). Why? Because a 20-year trend doesn’t reverse overnight. The dollar’s not dying—it’s just taking a breather before the next leg up. If you disagree, hit the comments. Let’s duke it out. Short-Term View: The 4-Hour Chart Now, let’s zoom in to the 4-hour chart for the past couple of months. The short-term trend’s been down, no question—DXY’s been sliding like a kid on a waterslide. But here’s where it gets juicy: I’m seeing a textbook inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. For the newbies, that’s a bullish reversal pattern, and it’s already played out like a charm. Pattern Breakdown: The left shoulder formed in early April, the head hit a low around April 10, and the right shoulder wrapped up by April 21. The neckline (resistance) was around 99.8–100, and guess what? The DXY broke it like a champ. Trendline Break: On top of that, the DXY smashed through a short-term downtrend line, confirming the bullish vibes. RSI Divergence: Check the Relative Strength Index (RSI). From April 10 to April 21, the price made lower lows, but the RSI was making higher lows. That’s a classic bullish divergence, screaming, “The momentum’s shifting!” We jumped in when the trendline broke, and boom—profits are rolling in. Price Targets and Trading Plan Here’s the game plan, fam. The DXY’s already broken the neckline, so we’re in. Now, we’re watching these levels: Immediate Target: 100.28 The DXY needs to close above 100.28 by the weekend (May 2–3, 2025). If it does, it’s go time. I’m telling you, go all in (responsibly, of course). This level’s key because it’s a minor resistance from prior price action. A close above it confirms the breakout. Next Target: 103–103.5 This is the big one. The 103 zone is a major inflection point—tons of price action and clutter from earlier this year. If the DXY breaks 100.28, it’s got a clear path to 103. Expect some resistance around 100.27 (a support-turned-resistance level), but once it clears that, it’s smooth sailing to 103. Probability: I’m giving this an 80% chance of heading higher, 20% chance of a pullback. Those are odds I’ll take any day. Long-Term Goal: If the DXY follows its 20-year channel, we’re looking at 115–117 by 2026–2027. That’s not a pipe dream—that’s history repeating itself. Trading Tip: We’re already positioned from the trendline break. If 100.28 breaks, scale up. If it pulls back to 97 (the lower trendline), that’s a dream buy zone. But don’t get caught in the daily noise—Trump’s tweets, CPI reports, whatever. Focus on the big picture. Gold, Tariffs, and Trump: The Side Characters I know you’re itching to talk gold, tariffs, and Trump’s wild ride. I’m saving the deep dive for another post (stay tuned!), but here’s the quick and dirty. Gold: Gold’s up 25% in 2025 (Bloomberg), and everyone’s like, “See? Dollar’s dead!” Nah, fam. Gold’s ripping because of tariff fears, geopolitical chaos, and central banks hoarding it like Smaug. It’s not a dollar killer—it’s just doing its own thing. We’ll break it down soon. Tariffs: Trump’s tariff plans (10–20% on imports, 60% on China) are shaking markets. They’ll make imports pricier, reduce USD outflows, and boost domestic demand for dollars. Bullish for USD, bearish for emerging markets. More on this later. Trump: The man’s a market wrecking ball. He’s out here calling for lower rates one day, tariffs the next, and probably tweeting about aliens by Friday. But his manufacturing push and tariff policies are USD rocket fuel. Ignore the noise—focus on the policy. Why You Should Care (And How to Profit) Look, I get it. You’re not here for a PhD in economics—you’re here to make money. So, why should you care about the USD? Because it’s the backbone of the forex market, and where the DXY goes, opportunities follow. A stronger dollar means: Forex Trades: Go long USD/EUR, USD/JPY, or even USD/CAD. The euro’s toast with that 2.25% rate, and the yen’s stuck in Japan’s low-rate purgatory (0.25%, per BOJ). Stock Market Impact: A stronger USD could pressure U.S. multinationals (exports get pricier) but boost domestic firms. Think Walmart, not Apple. Commodities: Oil and metals (priced in USD) could dip as the dollar rises. Short crude if you’re feeling spicy. Emerging Markets: Countries with USD debt (like Turkey or Argentina) are gonna feel the heat. Avoid their currencies like the plague. Here’s how we’re playing it at Edge-Forex: Long DXY: We’re in at the trendline break, scaling up if 100.28 breaks. Target 103, then 115 long-term. Risk Management: Keep stops tight below 99.5 (short-term) or 97 (long-term). Don’t bet the farm—markets love surprises. Stay Nimble: Watch for Fed signals, ECB moves, or Trump’s next X rant. We’ll adjust as needed. The Big Picture: Don’t Get Lost in the Noise I know it’s tempting to get sucked into the daily drama—Trump’s latest outburst, a hot CPI print, or some X influencer shilling a “dollar crash” thesis. But trading’s about cutting through the noise. Zoom out. Look at the 20-year DXY chart. Look at the interest rate gap. Look at the USD’s reserve status. The dollar’s not going anywhere, and it’s about to remind everyone why it’s the boss. My advice? Get out of the short-term clutter. Stop refreshing X every five minutes. Focus on the trends that matter: central bank rates, capital flows, and technical setups. The DXY’s setting up for a monster move, and we’re gonna ride it like surfers on a tsunami. Wrapping It Up: Let’s Make Some Freaking Money Alright, Edge-Forex fam, that’s the deal. The dollar’s not dead—it’s just been napping, and it’s about to wake up with a vengeance. The DXY’s forming a bottom, the charts are screaming “buy,” and the macro setup (rates, Trump, reserve status) is a bullish trifecta. We’re already positioned, and if 100.28 breaks, we’re going big. I’m back, baby, and I’m here to drop regular updates, roast the haters, and help us all stack some serious profits. Got questions? Drop ‘em in the comments. Disagree with my DXY call? Bring it on—let’s debate. Just don’t be that guy shorting the dollar while the rest of us are cashing checks. Stay tuned for the next post (gold’s getting its moment soon), and let’s make some freaking money together. Out!
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub
9
GOLD market update: range locked / breakout pending🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update 📊 Technical Outlook Update 🏆 Market Overview ▪️broke above 3 000 USD ▪️3250 USD S/R cleared as well ▪️Tested 3500 USD key S/R ▪️Rejection at 3500 USD key S/R ▪️pullback in progress currently ▪️locked inside range trading ▪️3275/3365 usd active range ▪️break below 3245 - BEARS take over ▪️break above 3385 - BULLS take over ▪️Bulls targets - 3450/3550 USD ▪️Bears targets - 3050/3150 USD ⭐️Recommended strategy ▪️Wait for a breakout ▪️LONG/SHORT after breakout 🔥 Key Drivers to Watch 🌍 Geopolitics & Trade 🇺🇸🇨🇳 U.S.–China Tariffs: Escalation continues pushing inflation fears & gold demand 🇪🇺 EU–U.S. tariffs (25%) are further straining global trade 💵 Weaker USD = stronger gold sentiment 🕊 Russia–Ukraine Ceasefire Talks 🗓 May 9 (Victory Day): Symbolic date eyed for a possible ceasefire announcement 🇷🇺 Parade vs 🇺🇦 EU leaders visiting Kyiv — all eyes on peace prospects ☢️ U.S.–Iran Nuclear Deal 🗓 April 28: Talks in Rome 🇮🇷 Iran shows readiness — possible easing of Middle East tensions
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
37
Gold Trapped? Everyone’s Long… But Price is Going Down!Gold (XAU/USD) is showing signs of exhaustion after its explosive rally that pushed it beyond $3,400. We are now witnessing a pullback phase, with price directly testing a key demand zone between $3,050 and $2,980. From a technical standpoint, this is the last major defense before a potential drop toward the $2,832 area. The current bearish pressure is supported by a powerful blend of macro, positioning, and behavioral factors: COT Report – Gold: Non-commercials (speculators) are aggressively closing long positions and opening shorts, which signals a breakdown in the short-term bullish narrative. On the other hand, commercials (hedgers), also known as the "smart money", are steadily increasing their long exposure, hinting at a potential accumulation zone forming. COT Report – USD Index: Speculative funds are stacking long positions on the dollar, which continues to add downside pressure on gold. As long as this persists, any upside attempt on XAU/USD will likely face headwinds. Seasonality: May tends to be historically bullish for gold, but June is seasonally weak. The strongest seasonal window opens between July and August, suggesting the possibility of a deeper pullback before the next bullish wave. Retail Sentiment: Over 75% of retail traders are long on XAU/USD, typically a contrarian signal. This sets the stage for a classic stop-hunt scenario, where price flushes lower to trigger retail stop-losses before a potential reversal. 📌 Conclusion: In true Bridgewater fashion, we’re seeing a divergence between positioning and price action. In the short term, gold remains vulnerable to a move toward $2,832. However, if that zone holds, it could provide a compelling opportunity to accumulate for a potential summer swing rally toward all-time highs.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD - FVG-Based Long & Short Setup Within Range ContextPrice action remains range-bound with well-defined FVG zones acting as both support and resistance, offering reactive trading opportunities on both sides. --- 1. Upper FVG as Resistance — Short Setup Trigger Zone The highlighted upper green zone marks: - Fair Value Gap (FVG): A clear inefficiency from the previous bearish impulse. - Structural Significance: Price has struggled to break and hold above, showing signs of supply reactivation. This zone is likely to attract sellers upon revisit, offering a clean risk-defined short opportunity. --- 2. Lower FVG as Support — Long Setup Zone The lower blue zone serves as: - FVG Rebalance Area: A region where price previously left inefficiency, now acting as strong support. - Accumulation Interest: Smart money often reloads in such imbalanced areas on retests. This zone is optimal for positioning into the next bullish leg should price dip lower. --- 3. Liquidity Sweep Mechanics — Trap Both Sides The market structure hints at: - Step 1: Induce buyers into breakout longs into resistance. - Step 2: Reverse from FVG, triggering short entries and trapping longs. - Step 3: Collect liquidity from lower range, potentially initiating new accumulation. This movement pattern is characteristic of engineered liquidity grabs in both directions. --- 4. Mid-Range Reaction — Key Pivot Area Price currently hovers around the mid-range zone: - Serving as a temporary balance point before volatility expansion. - Acting as a launchpad for the next impulsive move, depending on order flow dominance. Patience here is key — waiting for clean confirmations near FVGs provides optimal entry quality. --- 5. Summary: - Upper FVG Resistance → Short Bias - Lower FVG Support → Long Bias - Structured Reactions Around Imbalances Suggest Smart Money Activity This is a dual-sided setup ideal for reaction-based traders awaiting price confirmation at extremes.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Louigi_24
41
EURUSD – Bear Flag Before Further Drop?Like most of the market, EURUSD reacted strongly on April 22–23 with a sharp move down. Since then, price has entered a consolidation phase — and thIS pause has now taken the shape of a bear flag, a classic continuation pattern that often leads to further correction once confirmed. 📉 Key levels to watch: 1.1350 – Initial trigger for the flag break 1.1300 – Confirmation of bearish momentum Target: 1.1100 Invalidation: A return above 1.1500 would negate the pattern and call for reassessment. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Short
by Mihai_Iacob
4