EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will Trade Tensions Push It Lower? EUR/USD has been struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.0500 mark, facing renewed selling pressure as macroeconomic and geopolitical factors influence sentiment. With the US Dollar regaining strength and concerns about European economic stagnation growing, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance Levels: 1.0532 (January 27 high), 1.0629 (December peak), 1.0744 (200-day SMA).
Support Levels: 1.0405 (55-day SMA), 1.0282 (February 10 low), 1.0209 (February 3 low), and 1.0176 (January 13 YTD low).
Indicators: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 55, indicating modest momentum, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 15, suggesting a weakening trend.
Moving Averages: The 200-day SMA at 1.0744 serves as a key dynamic resistance, while the 55-day SMA at 1.0405 acts as interim support.
Fundamental Analysis:
Several key fundamental factors are exerting downward pressure on EUR/USD:
Trade Policy Uncertainty: While US tariff tensions have temporarily eased, lingering trade disputes, including a 10% duty on Chinese imports and potential EU-targeted tariffs, keep investors cautious.
Diverging Central Bank Policies: The Federal Reserve remains firm on keeping interest rates elevated, while the European Central Bank has begun rate cuts, signaling weaker economic confidence in the Eurozone.
Economic Growth Divergence: The US economy continues to show resilience with robust labor markets and stable inflation, while the Eurozone faces stagnation and potential contraction, particularly in Germany.
European Political Risks: Uncertainty in Germany and wider Eurozone economic struggles add to the Euro’s bearish outlook, making it less attractive compared to the US Dollar.
The EUR/USD pair is at a critical juncture, with key support levels in focus. Trade policies, central bank divergence, and economic growth disparities continue to drive market sentiment. This week is pivotal for the Eurozone, with key economic data releases culminating in Friday’s PMI figures, which could determine the pair’s next major move. Traders should remain cautious and closely monitor both technical and fundamental developments.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
EURUSD
USD/JPY : Another Bearish Move Ahead ? (READ CAPTION)The USD/JPY daily chart confirms that the price followed our analysis precisely, dropping from the expected zone and completing a 500+ pip correction, hitting all three targets: 152.70, 151.70, and 151, before reaching 148.00.
I anticipate a short upward move before another potential decline. The next probable target for USD/JPY is 148.65. Keep an eye on price action for confirmation!
THE LATEST ANALYSIS :
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EURO - Price can bounce up from triangle to $1.0600 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Price started to decline in the falling channel, where it bounced from the resistance line and broke $1.0465.
Then it continued to fall and reached $1.0265 support level, which coincided with support area and tried to grow then.
After this, price turned around and dropped to support line of channel and then made upward impulse.
Euro exited from channel and later started to trades inside a triangle, which continues to trades to this day.
In a triangle, price made a strong gap and then rose to resistance level, even broke it, but now trades below.
So, I think that Euro can break this level and even exit from a triangle, after which continue to grow to $1.0600
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EURUSD INTRADAY sideways consolidation supported at 1.0425The EURUSD currency pair price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. The recent intraday price action appears to be a sideways consolidation towards the breakout level, previous resistance, and now a new support zone.
The key trading level is at 1.0425, which is the previous consolidation price range and rising trendline zone. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 1.0425 level could target the upside resistance at 1.0531 followed by the 1.0562 and 1.0617 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of the 1.0425 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 1.0374 support level followed by 1.0350 and 1.0300.
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+200 pips Best Level to Short EURUSD from Resistance🔸Hello traders, let's review the H4 chart for EURUSD today. Trading
near premium prices of the multiweek range, closing in on heavy S/R
Currently risk/reward is shifting in bears favor, so it's recommended
to look for sell side setups in EURUSD.
🔸Premium prices at 0500/0535, below at 0225/0190. range highs 0470
and range lows set at 0250. trading near premium prices.
🔸Recommended strategy for EURUSD traders: focus on short selling any rips/rallies or short sell at market price EURUSD is currently trading near premium levels and is almost maxed out already, limited upside. TP1 bears +100 TP2 bears +200 pips final exit 0225 keep in mind this is a swing trade setup so naturally will take more time to complete / hit both targets. good luck traders!
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Fundamental Market Analysis for February 25, 2025 EURUSDThe rise in US inflation data last week triggered a new wave of risk aversion among investors. Now their attention is focused on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data, which is expected later this week. Traders are hoping that the rise in US core inflation will quickly fade early in the year and not lead to a new protracted battle with ‘transitory’ inflation that will be too high for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to go for a rate cut. Market participants expecting a faster pace of Fed rate cuts in 2025 are already feeling the pressure as US President Donald Trump tries to ignite a global trade war. In addition, another spike in inflation could extinguish any remaining hopes of a rate cut. On Monday, President Trump repeated his threats of imposing high tariffs on Canada and Mexico, warning that the tariffs were still due to take effect ‘next month’ after he recently caved in to tariff pressure and granted deferrals to nearly all countries he has targeted for import taxes on their citizens.
German consumer price index (CPI) data as well as retail sales activity figures are also due out on Friday. The German data, which is an indicator of EU-wide data, is likely to attract the attention of some traders on Friday, but the key factor influencing the market will be PCE inflation in the US.
Trade recommendation: SELL 1.0500, SL 1.0550, TP 1.0400
EUR/USD Faces Key Resistance Amid Liquidity Grab ExpectationsEUR/USD is undergoing a pullback after reaching a one-month high of 1.0528, closing at 1.04658 on February 24, marking a 0.22% decline from the previous day. The euro's recent strength was driven by post-election stability in Germany, where centrist parties formed a coalition government, boosting market confidence. However, bullish momentum has stalled near key resistance levels around 1.0530 and 1.0560, with the pair struggling to sustain gains above the 100-day simple moving average.
From a technical standpoint, the price is approaching a significant supply zone, where a liquidity grab could occur before a potential downside move. Resistance in this area aligns with broader concerns over Germany's economic outlook and coalition negotiations, which could weaken the euro’s appeal. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, despite recent weakness due to declining consumer confidence, remains in a favorable position for a short-term recovery, adding further pressure on EUR/USD.
If the pair fails to break through resistance, a rejection could trigger a decline toward 1.0400, with further downside potential extending to 1.0283. Conversely, if buyers manage to push past the liquidity zone, the next upside targets lie at 1.0530 and 1.0560.
EURUSD 25 Feb 2025 W9 -Intraday Analysis- US Consumer ConfidenceThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 25 Feb 2025 W9 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Today economic news:
US : Consumer Confidence
The market still in the same sentiment detailed in my Weekly Analysis . Below a summary:
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously bullish for EUR/USD, driven by optimism over delayed tariffs, geopolitical progress, and hopes for softer inflation.
Key Risks:
A hot PCE report reviving Fed hawkishness.
Sudden tariff escalations or breakdowns in peace talks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish (Reached Swing Extreme Demand)
🔹INT Bearish (Reached Extreme Supply)
🔹INT-INT Bullish (Reached EQ (50%)
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With this week open, price continued Bullish as expected and created another ii-BOS after which price started PB for the ii-BOS and reached the recent Demand which we could see the next Bullish move from.
3️⃣
🔹Still expectation is set to continue Bullish targeting the Weak Swing High as long LTFs holds Bullish structures. Also, In my mind I’m not neglecting the current Bearish 4H INT structure and we already reached that structure extreme.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Reached Swing EQ (50%)/Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase
2️⃣
🔹After the 15m Bullish BOS, price initiated the Swing PB Phase.
🔹Price reached the 15m Swing EQ (50%) and turned Bullish after the INT structure changed to Bullish iBOS indicating that the Swing PB maybe over and we are currently starting the Swing Bullish continuation Phase.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish with the 15m / 4H INT & Swing are all Bullish.
🔹Price targets are 15m Weak INT High and ultimately 15m Weak Swing High.
How to Trade Ending Diagonal: EURUSDOne of my favorite EW patterns: Ending Diagonal
It usually appears in wave C or 5, we have wave C
It consists of five waves and each of them are three waves
All looks good as wave 5 is over wave 3 and Ending diagonal might be completed
as EWO oscillator already shows Bearish Divergence between wave 3 and 5
This educational post to show trade setup on this pattern
The bottom of wave b in wave 5 is a breakdown trigger (blue) as it means wave 5 is over
Confirmation is on breakdown of wave 4 (orange)
Target is at the start of the Ending Diagonal (green)
Bonus track:
One could consider sell on 61.8% Fib retracement as we see the first impulse down
and now we watch this two-legged pullback.
EURUSD H1 I Bullish Bounce OffBased on the H1 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.0459, an overlap support.
Our take profit is set at 1.0501, a pullback resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fiboancci retracement.
The stop loss is placed at 1.0440, a pullback support level.
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ECB at a Crossroads Between Inflation Resurgence and Recession
The Eurozone CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.5% (previous: 2.4%, consensus: 2.5%), fueling concerns over inflation. Belgian central bank governor Pierre Wunsch emphasized the need for caution against excessive rate cuts without sufficient awareness of risks.
Meanwhile, Germany’s February Ifo Business Climate Index came in at 85.2 (previous: 85.2, consensus: 85.9), further exacerbating uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone economy.
After testing the resistance at 1.0530, EURUSD retreated below the EMA21. However, the price is still maintaining its bullish momentum above the ascending trendline. If EURUSD breaches above 1.0530, it could gain upward momentum toward 1.0630. Conversely, a break below 1.0455 and the trendline may lead to a further decline toward the support at 1.0400.
GBP/USD: Bullish Momentum Faces Key ResistanceGBP/USD has reached its highest point since mid-December at 1.2690, primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar. The pair has shown strong momentum, and as long as it holds above the key support at 1.2520, analysts see potential for further upside toward 1.2725. Positive UK economic data, including better-than-expected retail sales and inflation figures, have reinforced a bullish outlook for the pound. However, minor retracements have been observed, with slight declines following recent gains, such as the 0.05% drop on February 24. Market volatility remains a factor, with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices impacting the dollar’s strength. From a technical standpoint, the price is currently testing a resistance zone while approaching key moving averages, which could act as dynamic resistance. The presence of supply zones above suggests that the pair could face selling pressure before a potential continuation higher. If the price fails to sustain above the resistance area, a retracement toward the 1.2520 level and possibly deeper into the 1.2400 region could materialize. Despite the recent bullish momentum, caution is warranted due to broader market uncertainties, and future movements will depend on economic indicators from both the UK and the US, as well as overall market sentiment.
Sell Signal📉 EURUSD Sell Signal 📉
🔹 Wait for the best candle formation before entering the sell trade! Risk management is crucial.
🔹 The 1.04980 resistance zone is considered as the entry point.
🔹 Stop-loss is set at 1.05355 to minimize potential risks.
🔹 Target levels:
✅ First target: 1.04658
✅ Second target: 1.04133
⚠️ Always manage your risk! Make sure to get additional confirmations before entering the trade.
XAU/USD: Prepare for a new all-time high near $3000?! (READ)Gold's one-hour chart analysis indicates that the price has precisely followed our prior estimate, reaching the projected level of $2951. Comparing the last five assessments demonstrates the accuracy of these projections.
Gold is currently priced about $2947, down from $2951 when it peaked. I foresee a little retracement before another upward movement.
Short-term aims include $2954 and $2956.
Medium-term aims are $2966 and $2969.
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:
🚀 XAU/USD – Bullish or Bearish? Key Levels to Watch! 📊
💰 Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart Analysis
🔥 Key Observations:
🔹 BOS (Break of Structure) confirms strong market movement.
🔹 Bearish Order Block (OB) at the top suggests potential resistance.
🔹 Liquidity Grabs ($$$) & FVG (Fair Value Gaps) indicate smart money activity.
🔹 Bullish Rejection Blocks (30m & 1H TFs) could act as key demand zones.
📈 Possible Scenarios:
📌 Bullish Case: If price holds above the Bullish Rejection Block, we might see a push towards $2,950 - $2,960.
📌 Bearish Case: A rejection from the Bearish OB could send gold back towards $2,920 - $2,900.
🔔 Key Levels to Watch:
✅ Resistance: $2,950 - $2,960
✅ Support: $2,920 - $2,900
💬 What’s your bias? Bullish or Bearish? Drop your thoughts below! ⬇️🔥
#gold #xauusd #forex #trading #priceaction #technicalanalysis
EURUSD - the upcoming US PCE & the ECB rate decisionAt the moment, we are seeing that the bulls are fighting hard to keep MARKETSCOM:EURUSD elevated. But they are struggling to overcome some key resistance barriers. But the upside doesn't look very promising, due to the upcoming US PCE numbers and the ECB rate decision. Let's dig into the possible near-term outcome scenarios for the $FX_IDC:EURUSD.
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EURUSDHello, Traders,
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EURUSD :
TimeFrame: 1W:
Possible price path
personal opinion!
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comment your opinions.
Wishing you profitable trading endeavors!
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EURUSD Will it follow Trump's 1st Term??The EURUSD pair made a market bottom on January 13 2025 and in recent trade, it has been consolidating above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Interestingly enough, this is so far similar to the price action that preceded and followed Trump's 1st Term.
A 1D Death Cross took the market from the November 2016 elections to the January 2017 bottom. After a 1D RSI Double Top and Resistance rejection, the pair dropped again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but recovered to reach the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) in end of March 2017 and initiate an aggressive Channel Up that peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the September 2016 High.
If EURUSD continues to replicate Trump's Year 1 of his 1st Term, it is possible to see the price reach 1.19000 by the end of 2025, although of course we can't rely solely on repetitive patterns, but have to go along macro reports and policies one at a time.
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BURGERUSDT Falling Wedge Breakout – 120%-130% Gains BURGERUSDT has recently completed a breakout from the Falling Wedge pattern, and it has already retested the breakout level successfully. A Falling Wedge breakout often signals a shift from a downtrend to a potential uptrend, and this retest confirms that the breakout level is now acting as a strong support. With the price stabilizing and holding above this key support level, BURGERUSDT is set to continue its bullish move. The projected gains from this point are significant, with an estimated range of 120% to 130%+, as the market looks ready to resume its upward momentum.
The volume accompanying this breakout is a key indicator of the strength behind the move. Good volume during the breakout and retest confirms that market participants are supporting this price action, and the move is not likely to be a false signal. With the retest successfully holding at support, BURGERUSDT has solidified its position for the next leg up. This suggests that the asset is primed for continued growth as it begins its upward trajectory, offering substantial gains to those who act at this critical point.
Investors have been showing increased interest in BURGERUSDT, recognizing the potential for growth after the breakout and retest. As more traders see the strength in the price action and volume, more buying pressure could be expected, further propelling the price higher. With the breakout behind it and strong investor confidence, BURGERUSDT is well-positioned for a rally toward its projected 120% to 130%+ target. The technicals are looking favorable, and the market sentiment appears to be positive.
Traders should keep an eye on BURGERUSDT as it consolidates above the retest level. Any signs of further bullish continuation could provide an opportunity to enter before the price moves higher. With the technical setup and market dynamics aligning, BURGERUSDT represents an exciting opportunity for those looking to capture high returns in the next phase of its rally.
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EUR/USD: Navigating Supply Zones and Future TrendsThis morning, the EUR/USD pair opened at 1.05279, experiencing an initial push before retreating to around 1.04700. As I draft this analysis, the market is exhibiting a rejection spike, indicating volatile trading conditions. Currently, the price is lingering within a supply zone established last week, where we witnessed a notable bearish impulse followed by a sharp bullish reversal leading us to our present levels.
In the absence of significant macroeconomic updates or policy news to influence the currency markets, we will be closely observing any developments surrounding tariffs and the US's stance on European security as they unfold this week.
Additionally, the upcoming PCE inflation figures from the United States, scheduled for release on Friday, will be under the scrutinization of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials, as usual.
Our outlook remains robust, as we anticipate a potential bearish trend in the market. The current price resides within a supply area, supported by the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates a bullish sentiment among retail traders. Furthermore, our forecasting indicators suggest a looming bearish trend, consistent with patterns observed over the past decade during this timeframe. We are positioning ourselves for a bearish week ahead.
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