EURUSD
News TradingLet’s talk about news trading in Forex . While news trading is extremely lucrative it’s one of the most risky things a trader can do and experience. News and data cause extreme volatility in the market and as we always say “volatility can be your friend or your enemy” . Let’s take a deeper dive into news trading, which news and data affect the TVC:DXY precious metals such as OANDA:XAUUSD and other dollar related currency pairs. We will also cover having the right mindset for trading the news.
1. Understanding News Trading in Forex
News trading is based on the idea that significant economic data releases and geopolitical events can cause sharp price fluctuations in forex markets. We as traders, aim to profit from these sudden price movements by positioning ourselves before or immediately after the news hits the market. However, due to market unpredictability, it requires a strategic plan, risk management, and quick decision making.
2. What to Do in News Trading
1. Know the Key Economic Events – Monitor economic calendars to stay updated on high-impact news releases.
The most influential events include:
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – A report on U.S. job growth that heavily influences the U.S. dollar.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Measures inflation, impacting interest rate decisions and currency valuation.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meetings – Determines U.S. monetary policy and interest rates, affecting global markets.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – A key indicator of economic growth, influencing currency strength.
Central Bank Statements – Speeches by Fed Chair or ECB President can create large market moves.
2. Use an Economic Calendar – Websites like Forex Factory, Investing.com, or DailyFX provide real-time updates on economic events.
3. Understand Market Expectations vs. Reality – Markets often price in expectations before the news is released. If actual data deviates significantly from forecasts, a strong price movement may occur.
4. Trade with a Plan – Whether you are trading pre-news or post-news, have clear entry and exit strategies, stop-loss levels, and a defined risk-to-reward ratio.
5. Monitor Market Sentiment – Pay attention to how traders are reacting. Sentiment can drive price action more than the actual data.
6. Focus on Major Currency Pairs – News trading is most effective with liquid pairs like FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:USDJPY , and OANDA:USDCAD because they have tighter spreads and high volatility.
3. What NOT to Do in News Trading
1. Don’t Trade Without a Stop-Loss – Extreme volatility can cause sudden reversals. A stop-loss helps prevent catastrophic losses.
2. Avoid Overleveraging – Leverage magnifies profits but also increases risk. Many traders blow accounts due to excessive leverage.
3. Don’t Chase the Market – Prices may spike and reverse within seconds. Jumping in late can lead to losses.
4. Avoid Trading Without Understanding News Impact – Not all economic releases cause the same level of volatility. Study past reactions before trading.
5. Don’t Rely Solely on News Trading – Long-term success requires a balanced strategy incorporating technical analysis and risk management.
4. The Unpredictability of News Trading
News trading is highly unpredictable. Even when a report meets expectations, market reactions can be erratic due to:
Market Sentiment Shifts – Traders might focus on different aspects of a report than expected.
Pre-Pricing Effects – If a news event was anticipated, the market might have already moved, causing a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ reaction.
Liquidity Issues – Spreads widen during major news events, increasing trading costs and slippage.
Unexpected Statements or Revisions – Central banks or government agencies can make last-minute statements that shake the market.
5. How News Affects Forex, Gold, and the U.S. Dollar
1. U.S. Dollar (USD) – The USD reacts strongly to NFP, CPI, FOMC statements, and GDP reports. Strong economic data strengthens the dollar, while weak data weakens it.
2. Gold (XAU/USD) – Gold is an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset. It often moves inversely to the USD and rises during economic uncertainty.
3. Stock Market & Risk Sentiment – Positive economic news can boost stocks, while negative reports may trigger risk aversion, benefiting safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF.
6. The Right Mindset for News Trading
1. Accept That Volatility is a Double-Edged Sword – Big moves can mean big profits, but also big losses.
2. Control Emotions – Fear and greed can lead to impulsive decisions. Stick to your strategy.
3. Risk Management is Key – Never risk more than a small percentage of your capital on a single trade.
4. Adaptability – Be prepared to change your approach if market conditions shift unexpectedly.
5. Patience and Experience Matter – The best traders wait for the right setups rather than forcing trades.
Thank you for your support!
FxPocket
RAYUSDT Double Bottom Pattern. Bullish Reversal in Play!RAYUSDT has recently formed a Double Bottom Pattern, a bullish reversal formation that signals the potential for a strong price move upwards. The Double Bottom is a classic chart pattern that typically marks the end of a downtrend, and the current setup in RAYUSDT suggests that the price may be on the verge of a significant upward breakout. The volume supporting this pattern is good, which enhances the reliability of this setup and indicates that there is solid investor interest behind the move. Traders are expecting a gain range of 50% to 55%+ if the breakout continues as expected.
The Double Bottom Pattern is characterized by two distinct troughs, which form at roughly the same price level, followed by a breakout above the resistance level. This pattern often indicates a shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish, and the current setup in RAYUSDT is no exception. As the price starts to break above the neckline of the pattern, it is expected to see a significant rally, potentially reaching new highs in the process. The good volume accompanying this pattern confirms that the market is reacting positively, and there is a good chance for traders to profit from the expected upward momentum.
Investor interest in RAYUSDT is steadily increasing as more traders recognize the potential for strong returns. With the pattern well-formed and backed by solid market support, the coin is poised to make a move that could provide traders with notable gains. If RAYUSDT successfully breaks through the resistance level, it could set off a surge in buying pressure, pushing the price higher and opening the door for a 50% to 55%+ return for those who are positioned correctly. This pattern has the potential to deliver an exciting opportunity for traders looking to capitalize on a strong reversal in the market.
However, it’s important for traders to keep an eye on key levels of support and resistance to confirm the breakout's validity. The broader crypto market sentiment could also play a role in RAYUSDT’s movement, so staying updated on overall market trends will be crucial. Given the current technical indicators and the growing investor interest, RAYUSDT could be poised for an explosive move upward, and traders who time their entry correctly may stand to gain from this bullish setup.
EUR_USD STRONG BREAKOUT|LONG|
✅EUR_USD made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 1.0440 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we will be expecting
A further bullish continuation with
The target of retesting the
Horizontal resistance above at 1.0533
LONG🚀
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Dollar Weakens as Trade Tensions EaseEUR/USD is hovering around 1.0460 on Friday morning, while the dollar index remains near 107, poised for a 1% weekly decline. The drop is driven by easing trade tensions and expectations of a softer personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index later this month. The dollar weakened 0.8% on Thursday after President Trump directed his administration to explore reciprocal tariffs on countries with unfair trade practices. However, since these tariffs are not expected immediately, concerns over retaliation and inflation eased, reducing uncertainty around the Fed's ability to lower borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, producer inflation data exceeded expectations, following strong consumer inflation figures from the previous day. Despite this, components of the report suggest that core PCE inflation, the Fed's key focus, may come in lower than anticipated.
Technically, 1.0460 is the first resistance level, with further barriers at 1.0515 and 1.0600 if the pair moves higher. On the downside, initial support is at 1.0350, followed by 1.0275 and 1.0220.
EURUSD Is Going Up! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 1.046.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 1.054 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Euro H1 | Bullish uptrend to extend further?Euro (EUR/USD) has bounced off a pullback support and could potentially climb higher off this level.
Buy entry is at 1.0455 which is a pullback support.
Stop loss is at 1.0420 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and beyond the descending trendline.
Take profit is at 1.0520 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Fundamental Market Analysis for February 14, 2025 EURUSDEvent to pay attention to today:
15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
EURUSD:
On Thursday, the EUR/USD exchange rate strengthened, rising seven-tenths of a percentage point to re-enter the 1.04000 range. This gain was influenced by a general weakening of the US dollar, which facilitated inflows amid less severe US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data than anticipated.Investors are currently speculating that the Trump administration's ongoing ambiguity regarding tariff threats indicates the likelihood of no trade war.
Meanwhile, European economic data released on Thursday aligned with market expectations, offering minimal impact on traders. However, the US PPI data, which exceeded forecasts, helped alleviate investor concerns regarding renewed inflationary pressures. Core inflation for the year ending January stood at 3.6% year-on-year (y/y), surpassing the 3.3% forecast but falling short of the revised 3.7% figure, originally published at 3.5%.
The upcoming release of US Retail Sales will be a key data point for the week, with markets anticipating another strong performance. The monthly retail sales figure is forecast to decline marginally by 0.1%, from the previous reading of 0.4%.In other news, US President Donald Trump has unveiled his latest strategy to boost tax revenues, amid significant cuts in administrative taxes. The concept of 'reciprocal tariffs', which involves the imposition of duties on countries that levy tariffs on US goods, is scheduled to be developed in the coming months, with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick appointed to finalise the details.The timing of additional tariffs remains unclear, and investors view these new tariff threats as unlikely, reminiscent of Trump's proposed 'day one tariffs' as well as tariffs on Canada, Mexico and specific imports such as cars, microchips and pharmaceuticals. While there are various proposals for imposing import taxes on US consumers and businesses to penalise foreign companies and countries, there has been little real movement so far, leading investors to assume this trend will continue.
Trading recommendation: EURUSD: BUY 1.04700, SL 1.04100, TP 1.05300
EURUSD 14 Feb 2025 W7 - Intraday - EU GDP - US Retail SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 14 Feb 2025 W7 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
1. Impact of CPI and PPI on Inflation Expectations
CPI Outcome: The headline CPI rose to 3.0% YoY (vs. 2.9% forecast), while core CPI increased to 3.3% YoY, signaling persistent inflationary pressures 10. However, the market reaction was muted due to mixed signals.
PPI Analysis: The headline PPI exceeded forecasts (3.5% YoY), but key components linked to core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) suggested a potential moderation. Analysts noted that softer PCE data next week could ease Fed tightening fears, supporting risk assets like the Euro.
Investor Positioning: Futures traders now price in 33 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, up from 29 basis points pre-PPI, indicating growing optimism about disinflation.
2. Trump’s Reciprocal Tariffs: Negotiation vs. Trade War
Tariff Announcement: Trump’s directive to formulate reciprocal tariffs (e.g., 25% on steel/aluminum) was not immediately implemented, with a delayed enforcement timeline (potentially April). Markets interpreted this as a negotiation tactic rather than an escalation into a trade war.
Market Reaction: The USD weakened (DXY fell to 107.25) as investors focused on the negotiation window and avoided panic-driven safe-haven flows. The Euro benefited from reduced trade-war fears, rising to $1.0469 in early Asian trade.
3. Geopolitical Optimism and Risk Sentiment
Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks: Reports of potential territory swaps and Trump’s mediation efforts bolstered risk appetite. A resolution could alleviate Eurozone energy and supply-chain pressures, supporting EUR/USD.
Equity Market Stability: European stocks (e.g., Euro STOXX 50) pared losses, with sectors like utilities and healthcare outperforming. This resilience reduced demand for the USD as a safe haven.
4. Central Bank Dynamics
The ECB is expected to cut rates further (market pricing in 3 cuts in 2025), while the Fed maintains a cautious "higher-for-longer" stance. However, softer PCE expectations may narrow this divergence, favoring EUR/USD.
5. Key Risks and Catalysts Today
U.S. Retail Sales & Industrial Production:
Forecasts suggest a 0.2% MoM decline in retail sales (first drop in 5 months) and slower industrial production growth. Weak data could amplify USD selling.
Tariff Negotiation Updates: Any hints of tariff implementation timelines or retaliatory measures from the EU/China may reignite volatility.
Final Sentiment Summary
Short-Term Bias: Cautiously Bullish for EUR/USD.
Support Factors: Soft PCE expectations, delayed tariffs, and geopolitical optimism.
Investors will monitor retail sales data and tariff rhetoric for intraday momentum shifts. A softer PCE print next week could solidify bullish sentiment, while tariff escalation remains the primary risks.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing Extreme Demand
🔹Swing Continuation
2️⃣
🔹With the deep pullback to the Bullish Swing extreme discount and mitigating the 4H/Daily demand zones, price turned Bullish forming a Bullish CHoCH.
🔹The current Bullish move from Swing extreme discount to current price level having 2 scenarios (Previously I’d the following 2 scenarios where now I favors the 2nd scenario due to the impulsive nature of the move):
Scenario 1: Pullback for Bearish INT Structure and with the recent Bearish CHoCK and Minor Demand zones are failing, I expect Bearish continuation to target the Weak INT Low which aligns with the Daily/Weekly Bearish Structure/Move. (Counter Swing – Pro Internal)
Scenario 2: Bullish Swing continuation to target the Weak Swing High. Which requires to have Demand holding and Supply failing. The first sign required to confirm this scenario will be the current Demand which price is currently at to hold and we form a Bullish CHoCH. (Pro Swing – Counter Internal)
🔹With the recent moves, Supply is failing and Demand is holding solidifying the scenario that the Bullish 4H Swing continuation in play.
🔹Currently price is sweeping Liq. above 30 Jan on 4H and Daily where I’d noted in the previous days analysis which can provide a decent pullback. (Bearish CHoCH is required to confirm the Sweep of Liquidity. Otherwise, it’s not enough and price will continue from the recent 4H Demand formed).
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set to continue Bullish to target the Weak 4H Swing High. A decent pullback is also expected if the Liq. is enough and market sentiment is aligning with the pullback (Requires market Fear/ Risk-Off).
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing structures continued Bullish with 2 Bullish BOS yesterday (High Volatility).
🔹The current 15m Bullish structures confirms for me the 4H Bullish Swing continuation and we are targeting high.
🔹After the recent 15m Swing BOS, we expect a pullback.
Current structure doesn’t have much clear demand zone (the 70% of the structure is a 4H Demand zone).
🔹Price expected to have a pullback to the recent demand identified (Not well positioned as it’s in premium) or to structure EQ (50%)/Discount to continue Bullish and target the Weak Swing High.
🔹I want to note that the 4H had swept Liq. above 30 Jan High which could initiate a decent pullback on price after that aggressive move up.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation of price to continue Bullish as long the Swing Low hold and pullbacks are contained within the structure.
Bearish drop?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is reacting of the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 50% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 1.0463
1st Support: 1.0377
1st Resistance: 1.0522
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EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.0461, which is an overlap resistance.
Our take profit will be at 1.0389, an overlap support level close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.0534, which is a swing high resistance level.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (fxcm.com/uk):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (fxcm.com/eu):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (fxcm.com/au):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at fxcm.com/au
Stratos Global LLC (fxcm.com/markets):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Potential bullish rise?EUR/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0422
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 1.0381
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Take profit: 1.0521
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 100% Fibonacci projection.
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EUR-USD Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in a
Local uptrend and the pair
Made a bullish breakout of
The key horizontal level
Of 1.0440 and the breakout
Is confirmed so we will
Be expecting a further
Bullish continuation
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
EURUSD Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a selling opportunity around 1.04700 zone, EURUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1.04700 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
EUR/USD 4H | Elliott Wave Triangle Formation & Potential Wave 5"This idea explores an Elliott Wave setup for EUR/USD on the 4H timeframe. The pair is forming a contracting triangle, which is likely completing Wave 4 of the impulsive wave sequence. Key levels to watch:
Invalidation level (upside): 1.06776
Invalidation level (downside): 1.03492
If the price holds within the triangle and breaks downward, Wave 5 could target the lower support zone near 1.00169. However, a breakout above 1.06776 could invalidate this bearish scenario.
This setup highlights the importance of patience and discipline, waiting for confirmation before entering trades. Monitor key levels closely and adjust your strategy accordingly.
$EURUSDI like the retest from the recent short term high. Price is near a short term support level. Price has been trading sideways since its momentum drop to the left and I'm looking for price to retrace towards the nearby target zone or even the one further over time.
EURUSD Buy the breakoutEURUSD is trading inside a Channel Up on the (1h) time frame and is currently testing Resistance (1).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price breaks above the Resistance.
Targets:
1. 1.04870 (+1.12% like the prior bullish wave).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is trading sideways, supporting a buy low / sell high plan within the Channel Up.
Please like, follow and comment!!
XAU/USD : Important Zones for BUY and SELL ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the 30-minute gold chart, we can see that gold continued its bullish momentum yesterday, reaching a new all-time high at $2,942, as expected from our previous analysis. It was still too early to anticipate a correction, and the strong momentum pushed the price higher.
Currently, gold is trading around $2,900, and I expect the price to dip below $2,896 soon to collect liquidity before we assess its reaction to this level.
Additionally, there is an FVG between $2,929 and $2,934, which I expect to be filled soon as price moves higher. Keep a close watch on how gold reacts at this level for potential SELL setups.
The key BUY zones to consider are $2,875, $2,866, and $2,856.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
xauusd whats next?
**Gold Prices Surge Amid Resilient Market Sentiment**
Gold prices have surged once again, driven by robust buying activity as market participants capitalized on recent dips. As of Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) has climbed to $2,920, recovering sharply from a brief decline the previous day. This rally comes despite macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, including persistent U.S. inflation concerns and discussions of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
### **Key Drivers of Gold’s Rally**
1️⃣ **Inflation and the Fed:**
Gold’s momentum follows a surprising January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which showed hotter-than-expected inflation. While the data initially spurred concerns about prolonged Federal Reserve tightening, market participants remain confident in gold's safe-haven status. Traders seem unfazed by rising U.S. Treasury yields and the Fed’s commitment to elevated interest rates, focusing instead on gold’s resilience amid broader uncertainties.
2️⃣ **Geopolitical Tensions:**
Despite reports of peace talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin concerning the Ukraine conflict, gold's bullish trajectory remains intact. Investors appear cautious, viewing the negotiations as fraught with uncertainty. While a peace deal could ease geopolitical tensions and trigger risk-on sentiment, the market’s current preference for safety has sustained gold’s appeal.
3️⃣ **Weaker Dollar Boosting Gold:**
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened amid optimism surrounding potential peace talks, alongside currency market volatility. A weaker dollar traditionally supports gold, as the two are inversely correlated, further bolstering the metal’s recent gains.
### **Market Dynamics: Yields and Gold Diverge**
Interestingly, gold’s rally has coincided with rising U.S. Treasury yields—a divergence from historical trends. Typically, higher yields weigh on gold due to its non-yielding nature. However, this time, gold’s safe-haven allure amid inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty appears to be overriding these dynamics.
The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 64.3% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged through June 2025, up from 50.3% before the January CPI release. This shift reflects expectations of prolonged restrictive monetary policy, which could paradoxically support gold as inflation concerns persist.
### **Technical Analysis: Bulls Eyeing Record Highs**
Gold maintains a strong bullish bias, with prices supported by the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Currently consolidating within a key buying zone between $2,900 and $2,907, the metal’s upward trajectory remains intact.
**Key levels to watch:**
- **Immediate Resistance:** $2,918 to $2,920. A successful consolidation above this range could set the stage for a test of $2,942 and potentially a new all-time high at $2,980.
- **Support Zone:** Holding above $2,907 will be critical for sustaining bullish momentum.
### **Outlook and Risks**
As markets digest the interplay of macroeconomic data, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments, gold remains a focal point for traders. While optimism around peace talks between Trump and Putin could introduce volatility, persistent uncertainties ensure gold’s safe-haven demand stays robust.
**Takeaway for Traders:**
Gold’s resilience amidst rising yields, elevated inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty highlights its role as a reliable safe-haven asset. Watch for a breakout above $2,920 for further bullish confirmation, with potential upside targets at $2,942 and beyond.
#gold #trading #marketupdate #CPI #Powell
EURUSD Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0317
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0393
My Stop Loss - 1.0274
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
The EUR/USD pair has been moving in a range-bound and choppy manner over the past week. However, as long as the price does not break below the identified support level, we expect it to rise at least toward the specified target zone.
A break above the key resistance area could provide a buying opportunity, signaling a potential continuation of the bullish trend. If this resistance is breached, further upside movement may be expected.
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