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EURUSD

EURUSD: NFP and Jobs data are comingThe previous week was the relatively calmer one, when it comes to economic news. The S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April reached the level of 51,2 slightly above market expectation of 51. At the same time, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash for April was standing at 50,7, above market consensus of 49,1. The US new home sales were higher by 7,4% in March on a monthly basis, and was significantly above forecast of 0,2%. At the same time, existing home sales dropped by -5,9% in March for the month, which was higher from expected -3%.The Durable goods orders in March were higher by 9,2% for the month, again significantly higher from expected 2%. The week-end brought the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April figures, at the level of 52,2, which was a bit higher from expected 50,8. Consumer inflation expectations show strong uptrend, at the final April level of 6,5%, higher from previously expected 5%. At the same time, there has been an increase in five-year inflation expectations at the level of 4,4%, again higher from the previous post of 4,1%. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April in Germany was standing at 48, modestly above market consensus of 47,6. The same indicator for the Euro Zone was at the level of 48,7 and in line with market expectations. The Balance of Trade in the Euro Zone reached euro 24B in April which was highly above the forecasted euro 15,1B. The Ifo Business Climate in April in Germany reached the level of 86,9, and was surprisingly higher from expected 85,5. At the start of the week, markets were testing the long term resistance line at 1,1460. The highest weekly level reached on Monday was 1,1540. Soon, the market reverted back, so for the rest of the week, 1,1315 was the minimum level. The currency pair ended the week at 1,1364. The RSI modestly moved from the overbought market side, toward the level of 62, not showing the clear sign that it is ready for a clear reversal. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, after the lines made the so-called golden cross a week ago. Volatility will continue also in a week ahead. Some of the currently most important data for the US economy will be posted - Jobs data for March will be released on Tuesday, and the Non-farm payrolls and Unemployment rate in April, on Friday. This is promising another challenging end of the week for trading. As per current charts, the markets will continue to test the 1,1460 resistance level, which is a historically significant level. Accounting for trades from the previous week, the sentiment of the market holds the upside. Still, depending on the data which will be released, the market could turn toward the down-side in the week ahead, which would lead the eurusd toward the 1,12 support line. In case of a negative news, there is also some probability for the 1,15 to be tested again. At this moment, the 1,1460 resistance should be closely watched in terms of a technical analysis, because in case of its clear breach toward the upside, it will open a clear road for eurusd toward the 1,22 in the future period, as the next significant resistance level. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for May, Retail Sales in Germany in March, Unemployment rate in Germany in March, GDP Growth rate flash for Q1 in Germany and in the EuroZone, Inflation rate in Germany and in the Euro Zone in April, USD: Jobs data for March on Tuesday, April 29th, GDP Growth rate for Q1 preliminary data, PCE Price Index for March, Personal Income and Personal Spending in March will be posted on Wednesday, April 30th, ISM Manufacturing PMI in April, Non-farm Payrolls in April and Unemployment rate in April will be posted on Friday, May 2nd.
by XBTFX
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing. This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound. Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points. The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650. Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones. From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments: Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection. Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667). The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift. 📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short. Summary: The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate. We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone. COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal. However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000. Current Strategy: Slight bullish bias above 5,500. Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650. Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023. Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450. Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Falling towards pullback support?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is fallling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance. Pivot: 1.1192 1st Support: 1.1051 1st Resistance: 1.1512 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Long
by ICmarkets
EURUSD: The range is compressing in the sideway zone. Waiting foThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 and EUR/USD failed to make a 4-hour close above the 20-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting a lack of buyer interest. On the downside, 1.1300 (static level) aligns as interim support before 1.1270-1.1260 (Fibonacci 238.2% retracement of the latest uptrend, 100-period SMA) and 1.1180 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). EUR/USD could face strong resistance at 1.1380, where the Fibonacci 23.6% retracement level converge with the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. In case EUR/USD manages to stabilize above this resistance, 1.1450 (static level) and 1.1500 (static level, round level) could be seen as next hurdles.
Short
by xauusd_rr
GBPJPY NEXT WEEK BULLISH OR BEARISH ??GBPJPY is setting up for a major breakout on the weekly timeframe. After weeks of consolidation under a clear descending trendline, price action is now approaching a decisive point where a bullish breakout could trigger a strong rally. With the current price holding firm at 191.00 and clear resistance overhead, a successful breakout could open the doors for a powerful bullish wave targeting 205.000 and beyond. Fundamentally, the yen remains weak due to continued Bank of Japan dovishness and ongoing yield curve control policies. Meanwhile, the British pound is finding strength as the Bank of England maintains a relatively hawkish stance with the possibility of delaying rate cuts compared to other major central banks. This fundamental divergence between GBP and JPY heavily favors bullish momentum for GBPJPY. Technically, the pair has formed a solid base of support and is squeezing toward the apex of a descending triangle. If the breakout confirms with strong bullish volume, GBPJPY could enter a fresh bullish cycle, offering a great risk-reward setup for medium to long-term traders aiming for the 205.000 area. Overall, GBPJPY remains one of the hottest pairs on watch right now with excellent bullish potential. Traders should watch for a clean breakout above the trendline with strong candlestick confirmation to ride the wave higher. Staying patient and disciplined around this breakout zone could deliver highly profitable results.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
3
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋 What are your thoughts on EURUSD? EURUSD has pulled back after reaching the top of the ascending channel and encountering a resistance zone. We expect the correction to continue at least toward the identified support level. After completing the correction, a new bullish wave is expected to begin, potentially pushing the price toward higher levels. Will EURUSD resume its uptrend after the pullback? Share your thoughts below! Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Long
by HAMED_AZ
7
NATGAS Elliott Waves – Preparing for a Multi-Year Rally!Following our last post on Natural Gas, we have now seen a breakout, suggesting the start of a larger bullish wave — a move that could last multiple years. From a technical perspective: - Wave 1 (5-wave impulse) is complete. - Wave 2 (ABC correction) is also complete. - We are now in Wave 3, which itself will form 5 subwaves. Wave 3: Subwave 1 of Wave 3 has formed as a leading diagonal. We are now in Subwave 2, which typically retraces around 61.8% of Subwave 1. Our buy zone is positioned around this retracement area, and we will be looking for a lower timeframe breakout to confirm entries. Important note: Subwave 2 could form a more complex ABC correction, so patience is required while it develops. Trade Plan: - Wait for price to reach the buy zone. - Look for lower timeframe bullish confirmation (trendline break, BOS, structure shift, etc.). - Enter after confirmation. Stoploss Placement: - Aggressive option: Below the corrective low. - Conservative option: Below the broader invalidation level. Targets: 8, 10, 12 See below for our last NatGas analysis:
SKILLING:NATGAS
by WicktatorFX
2
Forex Grid Trading Overview: Practical Guide for 2025Forex Grid Trading Strategy: Detailed Overview & Low-Risk EUR/USD Application 1️⃣ What Is Grid Trading? A grid trading strategy places a series of **buy** and **sell** orders at fixed intervals (“grid levels”) above and below a base price, without forecasting market direction. As price oscillates, it triggers orders across the grid, locking in small profits on each swing. - **No Directional Bias** – Profits on both up- and down-moves - **Automated Entry/Exit** – Ideal for Expert Advisors (EAs) on MT4/MT5 - **Scalable** – Grid size and lot sizing can be tailored to account size and volatility 2️⃣ How It Works – Core Components 1. **Grid Levels** - Define a **base price** (e.g. current EUR/USD mid) - Set **intervals** (e.g. every 20 pips) above/below the base 2. **Orders** - **Buy Limit** orders at 20, 40, 60 pips below base - **Sell Limit** orders at 20, 40, 60 pips above base 3. **Take Profit (TP) for Each Order** - TP typically equals the grid interval (e.g. 20 pips) so each triggered order nets a small profit - No hard Stop Loss per order—risk is managed via overall exposure 4. **Cumulative P&L** - Winning trades roll profits into the floating drawdown of unfilled orders - As price oscillates, the grid “locks in” incremental gains 3️⃣ Pros & Cons | Pros | Cons | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------| | ✅ Profits in ranging markets | ❌ Can incur large drawdowns in strong trends | | ✅ Automated, systematic execution | ❌ Requires significant margin for multiple open trades | | ✅ Scalable to any time-frame | ❌ Floating negative exposure if grid one-sided | --- ✅Low-Risk Best Practices 1. **Grid Spacing & Width** - Wider grid intervals (e.g. 30–50 pips) reduce order density and margin use - Use **ATR** (Average True Range) to adapt spacing to EUR/USD volatility 2. **Lot Sizing & Equity Risk** - Risk ≤ 1–2% equity per full grid cycle - Use **fixed fractional** sizing: each order size = (Equity × 1%) / (max number of open grid orders) 3. **Drawdown Control** - **Maximum Open Orders** cap (e.g. 5 orders per side) - **Equity Stop-Out**: if floating drawdown exceeds e.g. 10% of equity, close all orders 4. **Trend Filters** - Use a **200-period SMA** or **ADX** filter: only enable sell grid if price < SMA (downtrend) or ADX < 25 (low momentum) - Disables grid in strong one-way trends 5. **Grid Shifting / Re-Base** - After a net grid profit, **shift** the base price to current mid to reset exposure - Prevents runaway open trades far from current price 5️⃣ Step-by-Step: Applying to EUR/USD 1. **Choose Time-Frame** - **H4 or H1** recommended: balances signal frequency and margin needs 2. **Define Grid Parameters** - **Base Price:** current EUR/USD mid (e.g. 1.0980) - **Interval:** 30 pips (≈ recent ATR on H4) - **Levels:** 3 buys at 1.0950 / 1.0920 / 1.0890; 3 sells at 1.1010 / 1.1040 / 1.1070 3. **Set Order Size** - Account equity $10 000, risk 1% = $100 per full grid - Max open orders 6 → each order $100/6 ≈ $16.7 → ≈ 0.02 lots 4. **Configure TP & No SL** - Each order TP = 30 pips (equals interval) - No per-order SL; overall drawdown managed by equity stop 5. **Implement Filters** - Only open **sell** grid if H4 close < 200-SMA; only open **buy** grid if H4 close > 200-SMA - Pause grid if ADX > 30 (strong trend) or market events (e.g. NFP, ECB rate decision) 6. **Deploy & Monitor** - Run on MT4 with an EA or semi-automated Expert Advisor - Monitor margin usage; adjust grid or disable before major news 6️⃣ Example P&L Mechanics | Trigger Price | Order Type | Entry | TP Target | Profit (pips) | |---------------|------------|---------|-----------|---------------| | 1.0950 | Buy Limit | 1.0950 | 1.0980 | 30 | | 1.0980 | Sell Limit | 1.0980 | 1.1010 | 30 | - If price moves down to 1.0950: buy executes, TP at 1.0980 nets +30 pips - If price then climbs above base, sells trigger at 1.1010 nets +30 pips 2️⃣ Introducing Progressive & Regressive Scaling 🔼 2.1 Progressive Scaling “Let winners run”—increase exposure after success Concept: After each profitable grid cycle, step up your lot size by a fixed increment. Why: Capitalizes on momentum and winning streaks. How to apply: Base Lot: 0.02 lots per order (1% equity risk). After grid closes net-positive, next cycle = 0.03 lots. Continue stepping up (0.04, 0.05 …) until a drawdown or equity-stop is hit. Reset back to base lot after a losing cycle or whenever floating drawdown > 5%. Caps & Safeguards: Max Lot Cap: Never exceed 0.10 lots (or 2% equity risk). Equity Stop: If floating drawdown > 10%, close cycle & reset. 🔽 2.2 Regressive Scaling “Protect the downside”—reduce exposure after losses Concept: After a losing grid cycle, step down your lot size to conserve capital. Why: Limits damage during rough periods and preserves margin. How to apply: Base Lot: 0.02 lots per order. If grid hits equity-stop or nets negative, next cycle = 0.015 lots. Continue stepping down (0.01, 0.005) until you record a net-positive cycle. Reset to base lot after recovery (e.g. two consecutive winning cycles). Thresholds: Don’t drop below 0.005 lots (to avoid over-shrinking). After two winning cycles at reduced lot, return to base. ✅ Bottom Line Forex grid trading on EUR/USD can generate steady gains in choppy markets—but demands **strict risk controls** (grid spacing, lot sizing, drawdown limits) and **trend filters** to avoid large losses in trending conditions. When properly applied, a low-risk grid on EUR/USD offers a robust, mostly hands-off strategy for capturing repetitive market swings. 4️⃣ Key Takeaways Progressive Scaling lifts lot sizes on winning streaks, amplifying gains—but must be capped and reset on losses. Regressive Scaling shrinks exposure after drawdowns, preserving capital until the strategy recovers. Combine both with your grid’s risk parameters, trend filter, and a solid equity-stop to maintain a balanced, low-risk EUR/USD grid. By layering scaling rules atop your grid, you adapt dynamically to market performance—maximizing winners and protecting against prolonged losing runs. Good luck! 🚀
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
39
EURUSD Will Go Lower! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 1.136. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 1.114 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
TA for FX,Indices and many More!(Week 17,28Apr25)Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends! Which pairs or instruments should we keep a look out for? For me I am looking at : potentially more pullback (down) on EURUSD and the majors.(stronger USD) SNP might have a day or 2 of upside and pullback (chance for long on the change in daily trend) Potential H&S on EurGbp and Gold. BTC to see potential long if there's decent pullback. NFP this week, BOJ interest rate release as well! Take note! Do check out my recorded video for more insights! Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you! -- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
ICMARKETS:BTCUSD
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
GBPUSD - Big Move Setting Up - Elliott Wave AnalysisGBPUSD is currently unfolding a 5-wave impulsive move according to Elliott Wave Theory. At the moment, we are in Wave 4, which typically corrects against the larger trend. Key Points: Wave 2 was a simple correction, so based on alternation, Wave 4 is expected to be more complex (likely an ABC structure). Wave 4 often retraces to the 38.2% Fibonacci level — in this case, aligning perfectly with a long-term ascending trendline, providing additional confluence for a potential buy zone. Trade Plan: - Monitor the ABC correction for completion near the 38.2% retracement. - Look for bullish confirmation (trendline break, bullish structure shifts, BOS, etc.). - Entries will be considered after clear signs of bullish pressure. - Stoploss: Below the lows formed during the Wave 4 correction. Targets: First Target: 1.3400 (450 pips) Second Target: 1.3750 (800 pips) Summary: Patience is key during the Wave 4 correction. Once the setup confirms, this could offer a strong risk-reward opportunity within the overall bullish impulsive structure. See our past GBPUSD setups below: Swing 1: Swing 2: Swing 3:
by WicktatorFX
EURUSD - Bullish Shift after IFVG? This chart outlines a clean sequence of bullish intent where institutional accumulation is visible through structure, inefficiency, and reactive zones. --- 1. Support Zone Holds — Demand Confirmed The previous resistance area has now clearly flipped into support , marked by multiple wicks rejecting lower prices. - This region is a high-probability demand zone engineered through earlier consolidation. - Price returned to this level, swept minor liquidity, and immediately bounced—confirmation that demand is active. --- 2. Fair Value Gap (FVG) — The Imbalance Magnet A clean FVG sits above price, created during the prior bearish leg. Now acting as a rebalancing zone. - Price is pushing into this inefficiency after finding support. - The gap inversion (price reclaiming and holding above the FVG) would validate bullish continuation. - Think of this as the mid-point between structure and expansion. --- 3. BSL Above — The Next Liquidity Target A key Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) level is marked higher, acting as the next logical draw for price. - Smart money seeks liquidity above recent swing highs. - If price holds above the FVG, this BSL becomes the magnet for bullish expansion . --- 4. Projected Price Action Flow The roadmap is clear and logical: - Step 1: Bounce from support (done) - Step 2: Push through and hold the FVG - Step 3: Expand higher toward BSL Each leg has purpose, and the structure confirms smart money is in accumulation mode. --- 5. Summary: - Support + FVG + BSL = Structured Bullish Thesis - As long as price stays above the FVG post-inversion, buyers have control. - This is a textbook case of price engineering via inefficiency and reactive structure.
Long
by Louigi_24
41
EURUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISEURUSD is currently in a critical retesting phase after a strong bullish breakout. Price action is finding solid support around the 1.1200–1.1300 zone, an area that has previously acted as major resistance. As long as this zone holds, I expect a healthy bullish bounce that could fuel a continuation toward the 1.1800 level. Market structure remains bullish, and this pullback seems more like a technical correction before the next rally. Fundamentally, the euro is being supported by a weaker US dollar sentiment due to growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. At the same time, improving Eurozone data and stabilizing inflation pressures are adding positive momentum to the EURUSD pair. If the US GDP numbers and inflation figures continue to disappoint, we could see further downside pressure on the dollar, pushing EURUSD higher. Technically, the weekly chart shows a clean breakout from a long-term consolidation, and now the price is retesting the broken resistance as new support. The structure aligns perfectly with a bullish continuation setup. A strong bullish candle from this zone would be a major confirmation for buyers to target 1.1800 in the coming weeks. In my view, EURUSD remains one of the strongest setups on the forex board, supported by both technical and fundamental factors. Traders should monitor key economic releases like US PCE data and Eurozone CPI, as they will drive volatility and direction. I stay bullish above the 1.1200 level and see excellent risk-reward potential in this trade idea.
Long
by AndrewsMarket-Mastery
1
Incoming sells?! AUDCAD bearish sentiment Good day traders, I’m back with another setup on AudCad. Before I go into the thinking behind this setup I’d like to remind you that on the higher TF’s we still very much bearish that’s is my reasoning behind the bearish sentiment. On Tuesday we saw price close lower to give us our high of the week but price has been disrespecting the high since Wednesday but failing to close above that high showing strength lower(Friday bearish candle). Going into the new week I believe we can expect price to keep disrespecting the high because we believe that CAD is gonna be weak but keeping the overall direction in mind(bearish) we do not wanna see price closing higher than the Tuesday’s high of the day. 4H we have shifted structure lower but price is still trading in the premium area, should price not fall below the low of previous week than we can expect manipulation higher to fill the FVG on the Weekly before continuing lower.
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
EURUSD Buyers In Panic! SELL! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1506 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 1.1409 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Short
by AnabelSignals
2