EURUSD
EURUSD Hits Support Zone—Is a Bullish Reversal Coming!!!As I expected , the EURUSD ( FX:EURUSD ) fell to the target I set yesterday.
EURUSD is moving near Support zone($1.039-$1.033) and 100_SMA(4-hour) .
According to the theory of Elliott waves , it seems that the EURUSD has succeeded in completing the corrective Zigzag(ABC/5-3-5) , and we should wait for the EURUSD to rise again. One of the signs of completion can be a Bullish Engulfing Candlestick Pattern with a suitable volume .
I expect EURUSD to rise to Resistance zone($1.0534-$1.0448) after breaking the Resistance lines .
Note: If EURUSD goes below $1.0333, we can expect more dumps .
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Euro/U.S.Dollar Analyze (EURUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
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EURO - Price can reach resistance level and then bounce downHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price broke $1.0410 level and started to trades inside flat, where it at once fell to $1.0250 level.
Then Euro bounced up from this level and rose to resistance area, after which turned around and started to decline.
In a short time, price fell to $1.0180 points, thereby exiting from flat and then started to grow in rising channel.
Inside channel, price broke $1.0250 level, rose a little, and then made a small correction to support line.
Next, Euro rose to $1.0530 points, thereby breaking resistance level and making a gap, but soon fell to $1.0350 points.
Price exited from channel, so, now I think it will make move to resistance level and then fall to $1.0250 level.
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EURUSD Buying Trade Idea from 1.0230-1.02135EURUSD Buying Trade Idea from 1.0230-1.02135
EURUSD Buying Trade Idea from 1.0230-1.02135 at the price level and the idea more empower when the market strongly break the 1.02722 zone.
In the recent days at Friday after the Gold create new High (All time) the other major pairs fall and now traded at the based price.
Market will cover the opening gap this morning Monday Feb 3rd 2025.
The buying setup;
Buy range: 1.0230-1.02135
Stop Loss: 1.01639
Take Profit L1: 1.03456
Take Profit L2: 1.04320
Take Profit L3: 1.05046
Take Profit L4: 1.06155
Use 1% of your account balance at the risk on the setup.
EURUSD Trade War pushing it to parity. 0.9900 Target possible.The EURUSD pair opened with a significant gap downwards in the aftermath of the first Tariff announcements between the U.S. and their strongest trade partners. This is a natural news reaction fundamentally but even from a technical standpoint, it is backed up.
The reason is the massive 11-year Falling Wedge pattern that the pair has been trading in since May 2014. This pattern shows that after last September's Lower High and rejection below both the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), we have started the new Bearish Leg.
With the 1W RSI making a somewhat Double Bottom on oversold territory (below 30.00), we see a similar pattern with the January 2022 and August 2018 fractals. Those sequences served as bearish continuation patterns following a consolidation phase.
The pair has consolidated through January and now this is the technical signal to resume the bearish trend potentially. The 2018 sequence declined to at least its 0.786 Fibonacci level before hitting the Internal Higher Lows trend-line.
This gives us a new bearish Target below parity at 0.99000, which is also contained above a potentially similar Higher Lows trend-line.
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EURUSD: NFP on schedulePrevious week was full of macro data as well as Central bankers' decisions. Both Fed and ECB held their January meetings, making decisions on interest rates. The Fed held interest rates steady, while their European colleagues cut further interest rates by 25 bps. Both moves were expected by the market.
As Fed Chair Powell noted in an after-the meeting address to the public, the housing market in the US is slowly picking up. The house price index was up by 0,3% in November. Data published for new home sales in December show an increase of 3,6% on the monthly basis. The Durable goods Orders were down by -2,2% in December on the monthly basis, significantly higher from 0,5% expected by the market. The initial estimate for the GDP growth rate for Q4 currently stands at -0,2%. The GDP growth rate flash for Q4 was at 2,3% for the quarter, a bit lower from expected 2,6%. The PCE Price Index in December was standing at 0,3% for the month and 2,6% on a yearly basis, which was in line with market expectations. The core PCE remains a bit elevated at the level of 2,8% on a yearly basis. The personal income increased by 0,4% in December, while the personal spending was higher by 0,7% for the month.
The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in January was standing at 85,1 a bit higher from market estimate of 84,5. The GfK Consumer Confidence in February reached -22,4 in Germany, a bit higher from market consensus at -20. The initial estimate for the GDP growth rate for Q4 in Germany currently stands at -0,2%, while the same indicator stands at 0% in the EuroZone. Both figures were lower from forecasted figures. The Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone in December was standing at 6,3% and in line with the market estimate. The Retail sales in Germany in December was down by -1,6% for the month, significantly lower from forecasted 0,2%. The unemployment rate in Germany in January was 6,2% and was higher by 0,1 percentage point from the previous month. Inflation rate in Germany, preliminary for January was -0,2% for the month and 2,3% on a yearly basis.
A lot of important macro data and CB rate decisions were the promise for the volatile week on financial markets. The market pushed the eurusd currency pair to the level of 1,0530 at the start of the week, and swiftly reverted the path to the down side. The lowest weekly level was reached at Friday's trading session, at the level of 1,035. The RSI reached the level of 59 and in line with the market moves, reverted toward the downside, ending the week at the level of 46. Such moves are indicating that the market is still not sure which side to trade. The moving average of 50 days continues to modestly diverge from MA200. Considering a huge difference between two lines, the potential cross is still far away.
In the week ahead, the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate for the US are scheduled, which might bring back some volatility to the market. As per current charts, the 1,05 resistance line was “rejected”, so the currency pair reverted back toward the 1,03, the short term support line. At the same time, RSI is showing that the market is not ready to take the trading side. The clear overbought market side was not reached during the previous period, but instead, market reverted to the downside. At the beginning of the week ahead, the situation should be much clearer. At this moment, on charts, there are equal probabilities for both moves, toward up, and downside. In case of the upside, the resistance line at 1,05 could be tested again. On the opposite side, the 1,03 level has equal chances to be tested in the week ahead.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Inflation rate flash for January in the EuroZone, HCOB Composite PMI flash for January in Germany and in the EuroZone, Retail Sales in the Euro Zone in December, Balance of Trade for Germany in December, Industrial Production in December in Germany,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI for January, Jobs openings in December, ISM Services PMI in January, Non Farm Payrolls in January, Unemployment rate in January, Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for February.
Fundamental Market Analysis for february 3, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD was subjected to heavy selling on Monday and fell towards 1.0200 early in the Asian session. Spot prices have returned to more than two-year lows reached in January and look set to continue their multi-month downtrend.
The US Dollar (USD) is rising across the board in response to US President Donald Trump's decision over the weekend to impose 25 per cent duties against Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10 per cent against China. This marks the start of a new global trade war and has curbed investor appetite for risky assets. The flow of anti-risk sentiment is putting good pressure on the safe-haven quid, which is becoming a key factor putting downward pressure on EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, on Friday evening, Trump announced that he will impose tariffs on goods from the European Union. This comes amid the European Central Bank's (ECB) stance, which continues to undermine the common currency. As expected, the ECB cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) last Thursday and left the door open for further rate cuts before the end of this year.
This is a significant divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) pause, which favours dollar bulls and supports the prospects for further EUR/USD declines. Meanwhile, the recent sharp pullback in US Treasury yields acts as a headwind for the quid and may provide some support to spot prices. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.
Trade recommendation: Trading mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Euro Weakens as ECB Signals Rate ReductionsThe euro dropped to $1.02, marking its lowest level in three weeks, as the U.S. dollar strengthened following President Donald Trump's decision to implement tariffs of 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports and 10% on Chinese goods starting Tuesday. Trump has also warned of potential tariffs on the European Union, prompting the region to vow a strong response. These factors added to the pressure on the euro, which was already weakened by the European Central Bank's dovish stance.
Last week, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and signaled the possibility of further reductions later this year. Currently, market traders are factoring in the likelihood of three additional ECB rate cuts by the end of 2025.
From a technical perspective, the first resistance level is at 1.0300, with further resistanc
DeGRAM | EURUSD continue to declineEURUSD is under an ascending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the resistance level.
The chart has consolidated under the lower boundary of the channel.
We expect the decline to continue.
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EURUSD Sell RiskHi it looks like EURUSD has continued to show some selling. There is risk of possible continued selling.
Thanks please follow me thanks.
@ilyaskhan.1994 #eurusd
EUR/USD Weekly: Double Top Signals Further Downside Potential
The EUR/USD weekly chart shows a clear double top formation, with the neckline already broken, indicating a potential bearish continuation.
Scenario 1:
The price could retest the broken neckline, which now acts as resistance, before resuming its downward move. This scenario aligns with the prevailing bearish trend, targeting the key support zone at 0.99810.
Scenario 2:
If the price manages to break above the resistance after retesting the neckline, it may enter a consolidation phase within the larger descending channel. However, the overall trend remains bearish unless the price breaks out of the channel.
The ultimate target for this downtrend lies in the 0.99810 region, where significant support could trigger a reaction. Traders should monitor the neckline retest and price behavior near resistance for further confirmation.
EURUSD H4 | Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 1.0191, which is a swing low support.
Our take profit is set at 1.0345, near a strong pullback resistance level.
The stop loss is placed at 1.0061, below the 127.2% Fibo extension.
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EURUSD 3 Feb 2025 W6 - Intraday Analysis - Taste of Trade WAR!This is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 3 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
" Strike the bound, and the free will take heed "
Market Volatility and Geopolitical Strategy: Assessing the Implications of a Trump Presidency
Recent market movements underscore a critical narrative: A second Trump administration carries significant potential to reignite the trade policy volatility that defined his first term. Historical precedent offers a clear lens—within weeks of taking office in 2017, President Trump implemented tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, upending decades of trade consensus. Investors initially dismissed these measures as negotiation tactics, but markets are now pricing in a more structural shift. As of this week’s open, risk-on sentiment reflects renewed acceptance of Trump’s uncompromising stance, particularly following his social media assertion that “the pain from tariffs will be worth the price.”
A Businessman’s Approach to Geopolitics
Trump’s career as a dealmaker suggests a presidency anchored in transactional realism. His administration’s “America First” doctrine—evident in the rapid escalation of the U.S.-China trade war—demonstrates a willingness to weaponize economic policy to recalibrate global alliances. This strategy aligns with a proverb often cited in Egyptian diplomacy: “Strike the bound, and the free will take heed.” By aggressively targeting key partners (the “bound”), the U.S. signals resolve to broader adversaries (the “free”), including Europe and emerging economies.
Strategic Outlook for Investors
With 205 weeks remaining in a hypothetical term, market participants should prepare for sustained turbulence. The 2018-2019 trade war eroded nearly $1.7 trillion in global equity value; a second iteration could prove more disruptive given today’s fragmented supply chains and inflationary pressures.
In conclusion, while Trump’s policies may inject short-term uncertainty, they also recalibrate the playbook for global engagement. Investors who disentangle rhetoric from actionable strategy will be best positioned to navigate this paradigm.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹At Swing Extreme
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹With Risk-On sentiment, market opened with a gap down reaching the extreme Swing Low.
🔹The expected move is done with the market open. More development is required on LTFs.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is to continue bearish as long the Risk-On sentiment is still active and no soft tone from Trump in regards to Tariffs.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Swing turned bearish signaling the 4H/Daily bearish continuation.
🔹After a BOS we expect a Pullback, but currently the Risk-On sentiment is the main theme (Technical will follow sentiment) so not currently expecting a valuable pullback phase for the bearish BOS.
3️⃣
🔹Expectations is set for price to continue bearish and fulfill the Daily Bearish continuation.
EURUSD another selling opportunity!Hey guys,
To keep it short, based on my previous analysis on EURUSD that the first TP target hit, I want to share another selling opportunity on this currency pair.
I consider the previous movement as a false breakout of price and a good rejection is happening.
So It can be another sell opportunity with reasonable risk/reward ratio (around 1/3).
Good luck
EURUSD - Sell Setup After Key Support BreakOANDA:EURUSD has decisively broken below a key trendline, signaling an increase in bearish momentum. This breakdown suggests that sellers are gaining control, with the potential for further downside continuation.
In the near term, price may revisit the breakout level for a retest, where the previous support could now act as resistance. A failure to reclaim this level would reinforce bearish sentiment, increasing the likelihood of renewed selling pressure. If sellers maintain dominance, the price may head toward the 1.03120 level.
For confirmation of continued downside movement, traders should look for bearish technical signals, such as a rejection wick, a bearish engulfing candlestick, or increased selling volume. Conversely, a sustained move back above the resistance level could invalidate the bearish setup and shift the bias toward a potential bullish recovery.
This is not financial advice but rather how I approach support/resistance zones. Remember, always wait for confirmation before jumping in.
Please boost this post, every like and comment drives me to bring you more ideas! I’d love to hear your perspective in the comments.
Best of luck , TrendDiva
HUGE GAPS on market open!HUGE GAPS on market open across all markets related to the US Dollar!
XXXUSD 📉
USDXXX 📈
Forex Market AnalysisUSD with a failed 2D week to go 2-2 rev to the upside and take out pivot highs. This occurs at the same time as the EURO looking weak with the most interesting of the 3 charts. EURO with the potential 2-1-2D week after clearing Motherbar highs two weeks ago and now giving us the actionable signal back through to motherbar lows. Price was stuck in the motherbar range for 8 weeks before taking out highs. Now looking to make a sharp move back through that motherbar range to the lows. YEN with the successful 2-2 rev week that has given us a clear BF if we were to drop to the daily TF. YEN with TFC supporting more upside, and being closer to 2-2 continuation rather than 2-2 rev. Not as interesting as USD and EURO at the moment, but definitely will be noted as I am mainly watching anything EUR/X for downside, and USD/X for upside. Side note: GBP and AUD both bearish weekly's but not as interesting as other currencies right now. Main pairs to watch this week :
Bull:
USD/JPY- (Daily PMG to the upside could be a huge early week mover)
USD/CAD - Daily hammer 2-2 for BF expansion
Bear:
EUR/USD (2-2 Week, Gorgeous weekly BF)
GBP/USD - Weekly 2-2 to the downside. Larger ATR than most others
AUD/HKD - shooter 2-2 Daily, Inside week. Check the Daily BF (Wow)
Neutral:
AUD/CAD - 3-1 Daily and inside week
EURUSD TRADE IDEA: SHORT | SELL (03/02/25)EURUSD has continued its trend by seeking to break downwards after taking out the liquidity resting above it.
RR: 6.42 or for earlier entry (bottom of OB) around 4.8
N.B.: This is not financial advice. Trade safely and with caution.
EURUSD 2/2/25Heading into this week, EUR/USD is the first pair we are looking at. We have a new filter applied with our Orion Entry Level V2, as well as the Orion System running in the background.
The bias has been shown as bearish, so we are looking for the following. Note the two pre-established highs above, along with a high that is yet to be recognized, as we have not joined the new trading week to confirm that candle closure. That gives us three highs to target and ultimately a heavy cluster of lows marked as the lowest target, along with a high-volume low just below the current price.
We're looking for an expansive move down, but overall, we would love to see a pullback into the highs beforehand, remembering that the higher timeframe is giving us our bearish bias. So because of this, we will look to follow it.
Remembering that we only take trades if the entries are given, and until we hit the points we want to trade from, we do nothing more than let the market run its course.
Trade to your risk, follow your rules, and always let Orion guide you.
EURUSD (1H) - Bearish Reversal with Double TopOANDA:EURUSD
📶 Technical Analysis:
🟠 From January 13th to January 29th, the market was in a strong bullish trend, with prices steadily moving higher. The trend was supported by consistent higher highs and higher lows.
🟢 Between January 24th and January 28th, a Double Top pattern formed. This is a classic bearish reversal formation that occurs when the price fails to break above a key resistance level, marking two distinct peaks (tops) at roughly the same price level. The failure to surpass the previous high indicates that the buyers are losing momentum and that the market could be turning bearish.
🟢 On January 29th, the trend line was decisively broken, confirming the shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. This breakdown is a crucial event, as it suggests that the upward price movement is no longer sustainable, and the market is now in the process of establishing a downward trend.
🟢 Following the break of the trend line, the price started to form lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers have gained control of the market. This pattern is typical in a bearish trend, as it shows diminishing buying pressure and an increasing presence of sellers.
🟢 The bearish crossover of the moving averages further solidifies the reversal. Short-term moving averages crossing below longer-term moving averages indicate that the bearish momentum is accelerating. This is often interpreted as a signal to sell or go short, as the market is now in a confirmed downtrend.
🟡 Key support levels along the new trend line will be crucial to monitor. If the price breaks through any of these support levels, the bearish trend is likely to accelerate, leading to further downside potential.
🆕 Fundamental Analysis:
🟢 The US Dollar (USD) continues to strengthen, as the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached a weekly high of 108.35, driven by strong demand for the Greenback as a safe haven.
🟡 President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS nations and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada if they challenge the US Dollar's dominance or attempt to create an alternative currency. This statement could further increase market volatility and impact global trade relations.
🟡 The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday and indicated that it will remain in a wait-and-see mode until there’s substantial progress on inflation or weakness in the labor market. This signals a cautious approach in monetary policy.
🟢 The Euro (EUR) continues to weaken amid expectations of easing monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB). German CPI data shows inflationary pressures are easing, boosting hopes that the ECB may lower rates in the future.
🔤 Summary:
🟢 The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure due to a combination of factors, including weaker German inflation data and strong US Dollar performance. The pair is expected to maintain a bearish trend, with the focus on potential short positions around the newly formed trend line or key levels of resistance.
🟢 Watch for the trend line or significant resistance zones, as they may offer entry points for short positions if the pair continues to respect the downward trend.
🔴 If the price breaks above the trend line or key resistance, the current bearish analysis will no longer hold. In this case, it would be prudent to wait for further indicators and clear price action formations before taking new positions.
EURUSD: Bulls Will Push Higher
Balance of buyers and sellers on the EURUSD pair, that is best felt when all the timeframes are analyzed properly is shifting in favor of the buyers, therefore is it only natural that we go long on the pair.
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EURUSD: Key Supports & Resistances For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important support & resistance levels/zones for EURUSD
for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
EURUSD 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 - Weekly Analysis - Tariffs Impact & NFP This is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 3-7 Feb 2025 W6 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
On February 1, 2025, President Donald Trump announced the imposition of tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, effective immediately. The tariffs include a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. These measures are intended to address issues such as illegal immigration, drug trafficking, and trade imbalances.
The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the situation to assess the potential economic impact of the new tariffs. The primary concerns include:
Inflation: The tariffs are expected to raise the cost of imported goods, which could contribute to higher inflation rates. This development may influence the Fed's monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to adjustments in interest rates to manage inflationary pressures.
Economic Growth: The increased costs for businesses and consumers may dampen economic growth. The Fed will need to balance the risks of slowing growth with the potential for rising inflation when considering future policy actions.
In summary, the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China has introduced significant uncertainty into the markets. Investors are concerned about the potential for increased costs and supply chain disruptions, while the Federal Reserve is evaluating the implications for inflation and overall economic growth.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into Monthly Demand and the liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium).
🔹Price had tapped into the Weekly Demand formed from the Bullish CHoCH last week. Is this demand enough to initiate the INT Pullback or with the current market sentiment and USD expectation to strength in the short-term we will continue Bearish following the Bearish Swing and INT Structures to target the Weak INT Low and Weak Swing Low?
🔹Expectations for price react from the current Weekly demand and then target the Weak INT Low to target the Weak Swing Low.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish tapping the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹With the mitigation of the Daily supply, price created a Bearish CHoCH signaling the end of the Pullback Phase of the INT structure and the start of the Bearish move targeting the Weak INT Low.
🔹Currently price tapping into a Daily/Weekly Demand Zones which could provide some bounce / or reversal for price to continue up (Depends on market Sentiment and if tariffs will trigger Risk-Off and USD Strength or it’s already priced in from last week strength in USD).
🔹Expectation is set to Bearish and more LTF development required to have a clear view.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Reached Swing EQ
🔹Swing Pullback
2️⃣
🔹Price managed to create a Bearish iBOS indicating that the Swing Pullback started.
🔹After the iBOS, we expect a Pullback.
3️⃣
🔹Price currently tapping into the Daily/Weekly demand which could provide a short-term pullback (waiting for at least a Bullish CHoCH to confirm).
🔹Expectation is set to have a reaction from the Daily / 4H Demand zone to facilitate the pullback (Aligns with the Daily/Weekly expectations) then we will continue bearish to facilitate the Daily / Weekly expectations of bearish move.
Economic Events for the Week
