EURUSD
EUR/USD Outlook – Potential Short SetupsHi everyone,
In today’s post, let’s break down the current market structure and potential opportunities in the EUR/USD pair.
🔍 Market Context
After nearly a month of consolidation, EUR/USD appears to have stalled around the previous weekly swing highs . Despite several attempts to hold above this level, the price eventually broke down, signalling a shift in structure on the 4-hour (4H) timeframe.
This short-term breakdown could be an early sign of a larger structural shift on the daily chart , and it’s something I’m keeping a close eye on.
🧭 Key Levels & Price Behaviour
At the moment, price action is bouncing from a demand zone , which might provide a short-lived relief rally . However, this bounce may only be temporary.
In my humble opinion, bullish momentum is fading , and we could be entering a trap zone for late buyers . I’m watching the 1.132–1.138 region , just above the short-term downtrend line, as a potential resistance zone and an ideal area to consider shorts.
🎯 Trade Ideas
I’ve marked two trade setups on the chart, catering to different risk profiles:
1. Aggressive Trade – For traders willing to enter closer to resistance with tighter stop losses.
2. Conservative Trade – For those who prefer more confirmation before entry.
You can treat these setups independently or combine them into a single strategy depending on your trading style and risk tolerance.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This post is purely for educational purposes . I am not a financial advisor , and nothing here should be taken as financial advice. Always consult your financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions.
EUR/USD Breakdown in May: Seasonality + Smart MoneyEUR/USD Weekly Outlook – May 15, 2025
EUR/USD is showing clear signs of weakness after a sharp rejection from the key supply zone between 1.1450 and 1.1600. Last week’s candle closed decisively below the 1.1250–1.1300 structure, confirming the failure to sustain bullish momentum. The RSI has also dropped below the 40 level, signaling strong downside pressure.
From an institutional positioning standpoint, non-commercial traders are rebalancing: both longs and shorts on the euro have decreased, while spread positions have increased—suggesting hesitation and a lack of clear conviction. On the other hand, commercials remain heavily long on the euro, but this appears to be more of a hedging move than a directional bias. The US dollar is regaining strength, with new long positions added by speculative traders, aligning with the recent EUR/USD decline.
Retail sentiment shows that a majority of traders are short, but not in extreme proportions. There’s a heavy cluster of long orders between 1.1100 and 1.1050, likely serving as liquidity targets for further downside movement.
From a seasonal perspective, May is historically bearish for EUR/USD. All major seasonal timeframes (5y, 10y, 15y, 20y) point to consistent average negative performance in this month. The current 2025 trend aligns perfectly with this historical pattern, providing a statistical tailwind to the bearish thesis.
Macro-wise, today’s key US data releases—PPI and Retail Sales—could significantly impact the USD. A positive surprise would further strengthen the dollar, adding downward pressure on the pair. Market attention is also focused on Fed Chair Powell's speech later today, which could add fuel to the current move.
Conclusion: The macro, technical, sentiment, and seasonal frameworks all converge on a bearish continuation for EUR/USD. A weekly close below 1.1175 would confirm the downside extension, targeting the 1.0850–1.0700 demand zone. A break above 1.1330 would temporarily invalidate the bearish setup.
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 15, 2025 EURUSDEUR/USD is holding near 1.12000 in Thursday's Asian session, recovering the day's losses as the euro (EUR) gains momentum ahead of the preliminary Eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) report for Q1 2025 to be released later in the day.
The euro is being bolstered by growing confidence in its role as a reserve currency. Analysts at Capital Economics noted that the single currency is now in its strongest position in years and is closing the gap with the US dollar (USD) in global reserves. This shift is partly due to the policies of US President Donald Trump, which are seen as undermining the traditional appeal of the USD as a “safe-haven currency”. Further boosting the euro's reserve status was Germany's move to loosen fiscal restraints to boost defense and government spending, sparking additional demand for the currency.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) officials continue to emphasize the need for further interest rate cuts amid growing confidence that U.S. tariff measures will not significantly boost inflation in the eurozone. While interest rate cuts usually have a negative impact on the euro, the currency has so far remained resilient.
EUR/USD is also finding support from a softer US Dollar as markets remain cautious amid continued, albeit slightly diminished, trade uncertainty. Attention now turns to upcoming US data releases, including retail sales and the Producer Price Index (PPI).
Adding to the broader context, speculation is growing that Washington may favor a weaker dollar to boost its trade competitiveness. The Trump administration has argued that an overvalued dollar puts U.S. exporters at a disadvantage against competitors with weaker currencies.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.11900, SL 1.11400, TP 1.12600
EURUSD Just Landed in the Killzone — Bounce or Breakdown?🔥 EURUSD 15-Min SMC Precision Play — May 14, 2025
Here’s a sweet Smart Money sniper entry on EURUSD, caught right as price tagged a powerful triple confluence zone:
📊 1. Structure & Momentum
Recent bullish momentum created a weak high around 1.12660
Retracement follows with strong bearish pressure
Price lands exactly at a previous OB, Fair Value Gap, and the 61.8% fib retracement
🧱 2. Confluence Breakdown
🔴 Fair Value Gap (FVG): Unfilled imbalance tapped
🟣 Order Block (OB): The last down candle before bullish rally
🟡 61.8% Fibonacci Level: Price kissed the golden pocket
This stacking creates a high-probability reversal zone
🎯 3. Trade Plan
Entry: Around 1.12160
SL: Below 1.12090 (under 70.5% fib)
TP: At 1.12660 targeting previous weak high
RRR ≈ 1:6 — optimal asymmetric reward play
🔄 4. Management & Outlook
Watch for reaction on the 50% level at 1.12300
Break of market structure above 1.12400 = confirmation
Scaling out advised at midline levels with stop-loss trailed manually
🧠 Smart Money knows this is where the liquidity pools live. You're not late — you're patiently positioned where the institutions hunt.
🎯 Drop a “📍” in the comments if you're watching EURUSD
🎥 Follow for more sniper setups like this one — @ChartNinjas88
Could the Fiber bounce from here?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1137
1st Support: 1.1077
1st Resistance: 1.1241
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURUSd -change of Character) marked — showing a potential Overall projection shows:
Small bullish wave → BOS
Pullback → Higher low → Another BOS
Continuation toward the supply zone near 1.16458
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Current Price:
1.11729, with SL area near 1.10882 / 1.10629
TP projected at 1.16458
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Trade Idea Summary:
Entry Idea: Current level (reaction from demand zone)
Stop Loss: Below 1.10629
Target: 1.16458
RR: Approximately 1:5+
Bearish drop?EUR/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1274
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1373
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.1084
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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EURUSD: Strong Bearish Sentiment! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 1.12030 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: Bearish Continuation
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to sell EURUSD.
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EURO - Price can continue to decline in falling channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURO, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Not long ago, price entered to pennant, where it at once made an impulse up and broke $1.0820 level.
Then price rose to resistance line of a pennant and then corrected to support area, where it later reached the support line.
Next, Euro made an upward impulse, thereby exiting from the pennant pattern and breaking $1.0820 level again.
Price made a small correction and then rose higher than $1.1270 level, breaking it, but later started fall in falling channel.
In channel, Euro broke $1.1270 level one more time and fell to support line, after which rose almost to this level.
Now, I expect that price can rise to the resistance line and then continue to fall in a falling channel to $1.0960
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EURUSD - at Resistance: Will it drop to 1.11300?OANDA:EURUSD price is now at a strong resistance level, this is an area where it has struggled to break through in the past and reversed to the downside. It's also where sellers have stepped in before, so it’s worth keeping an eye on, especially for anyone considering short trades.
If we start seeing signs that the price is getting rejected here: like long wicks, bearish candles, or buyers starting to lose momentum, I think we could see a move down toward the 1.11300 level. But if price breaks through this zone clearly, that might dismiss the bearish idea and suggest even more upside will continue.
This area is pretty important and could give us a better idea of where price is headed next.
Just sharing my thoughts on support and resistance, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk wisely.
EUR/USD Daily Short SetupSetup: Retest of the former support zone (now supply) after the recent pullback from the mid-April highs
Entry: Short around 1.1336 (within the shaded resistance box)
Stop-Loss: Above the recent swing high at 1.1390
Take-Profit: Near the lower range support at 1.0735
Risk : Reward: ~1 : 5
Rationale:
Following a strong rally from early March to mid-April, EUR/USD has corrected sharply and is now back into the grey supply area that previously acted as support. This zone is likely to cap upside moves, making a short entry here attractive. The next major support lies around 1.0735, offering a high reward relative to risk. A break above 1.1390 would invalidate the setup.
DeGRAM | EURUSD retest of the support level📊 Technical Analysis
● Price is testing the confluence of the blue corrective channel floor, the long‑term rising‑channel base and the 1.11 support, replicating April’s launch point.
● A close above the blue channel roof (~1.127) would confirm a break and target the mid‑channel 1.134 resistance, then the supply zone / upper rail near 1.140; bias is invalidated on a sustained close below 1.11.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● US initial claims jumped to 252 k (5‑week high) while two FOMC voters signalled readiness to cut if labour softens, pressuring yields and the USD.
● ECB’s Lane said inflation is “on track” but emphasised data‑dependence beyond June, tempering easing expectations and underpinning euro rates.
✨ Summary
Channel‑base retest + weaker US data versus cautious ECB keep the short‑term long in play: objectives 1.134 → 1.140, cut if < 1.11.
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EURUSD INTRADAY oversold bounce supported at 1.1100EUR/USD remains in a long-term bullish trend, but price action has been consolidating sideways since reaching the recent swing high on April 21, 2025.
The key support level to watch is 1.1100. This is the current swing low and a critical level for the bullish structure to hold. If the pair pulls back and finds support here, a rebound could lead to upside targets at 1.1275, then 1.1356, and eventually 1.1460 over the longer term.
However, if the price breaks below 1.1100 and closes below that level on the daily chart, the bullish outlook would be invalidated. In that case, further downside could follow, with 1.1030 as the next support, and then 1.0990.
In conclusion, EUR/USD remains bullish above 1.1100, but a confirmed break below that level would shift the outlook to bearish in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
EURUSD – This Week’s SetupAs shown in the previous analysis, the key levels have been broken 🔓.
We’re now waiting for a pullback to short from the marked level 🔽.
But if price goes straight to the lower level without a pullback, we’ll look for a buy opportunity there 🔼🎯.
Exact price levels shown on the chart!
Live markets need live plans! ⚔️📈
For detailed entry points, trade management, and high-probability setups, follow the channel:
ForexCSP
Euro H4 | Rising into an overlap resistanceThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1263 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.1395 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.1081 which is an overlap support that aligns close the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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GBP/USD Bulls Are Back? Institutions Are Loading Up1. Price Action & Zone Mapping
GBP/USD is consolidating above 1.3300 after a strong bullish reaction near the demand zone between 1.3040 and 1.3150 — an area that has already rejected price twice in recent months.
While the market structure still shows lower highs, the weekly candlestick formation signals a clear loss of bearish momentum. On the upside, the 1.3500–1.3600 zone remains the key supply area to break for a structural reversal to be confirmed.
2. COT Report – Institutional Positioning (as of May 6, 2025)
Non-Commercials (speculators) added +3,320 long positions and reduced -1,956 shorts, bringing the net long to +7,683 contracts — a strong bullish signal.
Commercials remain net short, but not with increasing aggression.
👉 The net positioning supports continued bullish bias, aligned with the recent technical rebound.
3. USD Index – Opposite Positioning
Non-Commercials increased both longs and shorts slightly on the US Dollar Index, but net positioning remains neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
This suggests a phase of indecision or mild retracement in the dollar, which indirectly supports GBP/USD upside.
4. GBP/USD Seasonality – Historical Behavior in May
According to MarketBulls data, May tends to be neutral-to-weak for the pair:
15-year avg: +0.0023
5-year avg: -0.016
2-year avg: +0.0069
Overall, this supports a ranging or corrective phase — not a high-conviction trending month. A breakout may need more confirmation.
5. Retail Sentiment
Currently, 60% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with an average price of 1.2959, while only 40% are long from 1.3337.
👉 This imbalance favors a contrarian bullish narrative, especially if the market decides to run stops below 1.3300.
✅ Operational Outlook
GBP/USD is showing bullish consolidation signs, backed by:
Increasing institutional long interest
Contrarian retail sentiment (potential fuel for rallies)
Solid demand near 1.3040–1.3150
However, neutral seasonality and lack of structural breakout advise caution. A pullback towards 1.3200–1.3150 might come before any further upside move toward 1.3500.
🔍 Preferred Play: Wait for a retest of 1.3150 with price action confirmation before entering long. A strong breakout above 1.3350 would be early confirmation of renewed bullish pressure.
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1208
1st Support: 1.1117
1st Resistance: 1.1244
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAU/USD: Gold will fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that on Friday, after the price rose to $3248, it once again faced a correction and eventually closed at $3326. I expect that with the market opening, we’ll see further correction from gold, and the first potential target will likely be the $3213–$3216 area.
The key demand zones are $3253–$3274 and the $3313 level.
The key supply zones are $3355–$3369 and $3395–$3408.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban