EURUSD
DXY - 1H still bearish...While some signals indicate buy opportunities on the dollar index, I remain skeptical. As mentioned in our 4H analysis, the third bullish leg has been completed, and I expect a deeper correction in CAPITALCOM:DXY .
In the 1H time frame, we can observe that the second reaction to the support zone is significantly weaker than the first. This could indicate a potential breakdown of the support zone, with the index likely falling below the 107 level.
Let’s see how this plays out! Follow for timely updates and expert insights! 🚀
EURUSD 1D MA50 break-out after 4 months. Major bullish signal.The EURUSD pair broke above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in almost 4 months (since October 03 2024). This is a major bullish signal as not only does it stop the downtrend that started on the September 25 2024 High but it resembles the post bottom rally of the November 02 2023 and March 21 2023 1D MA50 break-outs.
The 1D RSI sequences between those fractals are identical and both previous bullish break-outs hit at least their 0.681 Fibonacci retracement levels. That is currently where the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is trending towards, which is the major multi-year Resistance and a valid target and sell entry for swing traders.
The current rebound however faces for the first time in years a bearish trending 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), so our Target has to be on it and not exceed it. We are aiming for 1.07500.
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EURUSD → price confirms trend changeEURUSD breaks the trend. The price comes out of consolidation, updating the highs confirms the final change of trend. Now the struggle in the market will be for the resistance zones...
The dollar correction, the main motives of which are politics and geopolitics, gives chances to the forex market. EURUSD has been strengthening for a month and is beginning to hint at good prospects if the dollar continues its correction in the meantime. This week all eyes are on the Fed rate and inflation meeting, which may support the current movements.
Technically, the focus is on the support at 1.0448. If the bulls hold the defense above this zone, the price will reach 1.06 - 1.07 in the short to medium term.
Resistance levels: 1.053, 1.0607
Support levels: 1.0448
The price has already tested the area of 1.0448. Another false breakdown may be formed, the purpose of which will be the capture of liquidity, after which the currency pair will continue its growth according to the intentions of buyers, who have finally awakened interest in the euro.
Regards R. Linda!
EUROUSD TRADING POINT UPDATE> READ THE CHAPTIN Buddy'S dear friend 👋
SMC Trading Signals Update 🗾🗺️ Euro USD Traders SMC-Trading Point update you on New technical analysis setup Euro USD breakout of MA 200 ) Now 👍 Looking start with bullish trend 📈 🚀 analysis setup update fisrt I look short 1.04918- 1.04322). That' is good buying zone ☺️) target point 1.5540)
Key resistance level 1.05215 +1.05540
Key support level 1.4500 1.043222. .104107
Mr SMC Trading point
Support 💫 My hard analysis setup like And Following 🤝 me that star ✨ game 🎮
Could the Fiber bounce from here?The price is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.0451
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.0391
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.0535
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
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EURUSD 27 Jan 2025 W5- Intraday - EU Lagarde / US Home SalesThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 27 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Tariffs will remain a key driver of market volatility, heavily influenced by Trump's shifting tone. While the market initially welcomed a "risk-off" sentiment following his announcement of a modest 10% tariff on China—interpreted as avoiding a full-blown trade war—Trump has since shaken markets by imposing a 25% tariff on Colombia. There are also rumors circulating that similar measures could target Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday, February 1.
Tariffs are likely to be the primary market mover for the foreseeable future, so it's essential to stay vigilant and mindful of potential rumors. Trump’s unpredictability isn’t going anywhere 😁—adapt accordingly!
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity.
🔹With today market open, price created a Bearish CHoCH to initiate the INT Structure Pullback.
🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase
2️⃣
🔹After the Bullish iBOS we expect a Swing Pullback, INT structure turned bearish to facilitate the 15m Swing Pullback.
🔹With the bearish iBOS, a pullback is expected during the session today.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is set to bearish to facilitate the Swing pullback to at least the Swing EQ/4H-Daily demand zone which is well positioned in Swing Discount.
I’m looking for:
🔹Shorts from the INT structure Supply Zone positioned within the 4H Supply Zone only if we didn’t mitigate the 4H Demand.
🔹Longs from the 15m Demand within the 4H Demand zone for the 15m Bullish Swing and 4H Bullish INT Structure continuation.
EURUSD - JANUARY 27, 2025Right now, I’m expecting price to react from the 1.04699 zone, which is an important area on my chart. If price shows signs of bouncing from this level on the 5-minute chart, I’ll be looking for opportunities to go long (buy) targeting the Daily high.
What Happens If Price Doesn't Hold?
If price doesn't hold at 1.04699, I’ll shift my focus to looking for short (sell) opportunities down to the 1.04200 zone. This area is interesting because it lines up with several important technical factors:
A 15-minute Breaker Block, which is a level where price has reacted before.
A 15-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG), which represents an imbalance in the market.
A 15-minute Order Block (OB), which is a strong area of interest for potential buyers.
Key Things to Keep in Mind:
Now, the 1.04200 zone also lines up with the daily low, which is at 1.04112. This means price might sweep below that level to grab liquidity before moving higher.
If that happens, I’ll be watching the 1.04052 zone, where there’s a 5-minute Order Block that could act as strong support. If I see a bullish shift here, I’ll consider buying with an upside target at the daily high of 1.05211.
EURUSD: PCE, FOMC and ECB in one weekThere has not been much of the currently important data posted during the previous week for the US. The S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for January reached the level of 52,4, which was a bit below market expectations of 55,3. At the same time, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI flash for January was holding better from market expectations at the level of 50,1, while the market was expecting to see the figure of 49,7. Existing Home Sales in December were higher by 2,2% compared to the previous month, significantly higher from forecasted 0,3%. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for December reached the level of 71,1, and was a bit lower from expected 73,2. At the same time, five years inflation expectations reached a bit elevated level at 3.2% from the previous post of 3%.
The Producers Price Index for December in Germany dropped by -0,1% for the month, significantly below market consensus at 0,3%. The same indicator reached the level of 0,8% on a yearly basis in December. The ZEW Economic Sentiment index reached 10,3 in January for Germany, again below market expectations of 15,3. The Consumer Confidence flash for January in the Euro Zone reached a negative value of -14,2, but was in line with market consensus. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash in January for Germany reached the level of 44,1, which was a bit above forecasted 42,7. At the same time, the HCOB Composite PMI flash for January within the Euro Zone held above the level of 50 , reaching 50,1, which was above market expectations of 48,2.
Although there has not been too much currently important macro data posted during the previous week, certainly the main event was the inauguration of the new US President. The markets were closely watching this event in order to obtain information regarding the fulfillment of all pre-election promises, mostly related to tariffs to China and the crypto industry. There were no negative surprises on this side, so the markets continued to price financial assets with their current expectations. Two weeks ago, the eurusd currency pair reached its lowest level at 1,02 and from this point started its short term reversal to the upside. It reverted back toward the 1,04 resistance line, which was tested as of the end of the week. The highest weekly level reached was 1,05, however, this level was tested only shortly on Friday. The RSI reached the level of 60, leaving some further space until a clear overbought market side is reached. The moving average of 50 days is slowing down its divergence from MA200, but is still not ready to start the convergence path.
The week ahead will be the second most important week in January, as both the ECB and the Fed will decide on reference interest rates. The market is currently set positively that the ECB might continue with rate cuts, while the same could not be said for the Fed. The market expectations are on the side that Fed might hold interest rates at current level at least till the end of Q1. Anyway, the week ahead is going to be full of macro data, central bank decisions, in which sense, some volatility might be expected. Fundamentals will shape the market sentiment this week. As per current charts, the eurusd will start the week ahead by testing 1,04 level. There is also indication that the currency pair might continue to catch higher grounds, in which sense, levels above 1,05 might be tested. At this moment, charts are not pointing toward some higher probability that the currency pair might return toward 1,03.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Ifo Business Climate and Ifo Current Conditions for January in Germany, GfK Consumer Confidence in Germany for February, GDP Growth Rate flash for Q4 in Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment rate in the Euro Zone and in Germany, ECB Interest Rate Decision, Inflation rate preliminary in Germany in January,
USD: New Home Sales for December, Durable Goods Orders for December, FED Interest Rate Decision and press conference after the FOMC meeting, GDP Growth Rate for Q4, PCE Price Index for December, Personal Consumption and Personal Spending
EURUSD Will Move Higher! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 1.049.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 1.057 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSD 27-31 Jan 2025 W5 - Weekly Analysis - EU&US Interest RateThis is my Weekly analysis on EURUSD for 27-31 Jan 2025 W5 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
Weekly Chart Analysis
Daily Chart Analysis
4H Chart Analysis
Economic Events for the Week
Market Sentiment
Weaker Dollar Sentiment: A softer tone on tariffs reduced market fears of escalating trade wars. This decreased safe-haven flows into the USD, as such rhetoric often bolsters the dollar's demand during heightened global uncertainties.
Improved Global Trade Outlook: Easing trade tensions generally supports global economic activity, benefitting risk-sensitive assets like the euro. The USD could weaken as investors seek higher-yielding opportunities outside the U.S.
Market Expectations for the Federal Reserve: If the U.S.-China trade relationship stabilizes, it could lower inflationary pressures caused by tariffs, potentially leading to a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve. This would further weaken the dollar.
Lagging Economic Growth in Europe: While the euro could see short-term gains, its long-term strength depends on the eurozone’s ability to address its economic challenges. Structural issues in major economies like Germany and Italy could cap the euro’s upside.
Upcoming important news: EUR & USD Interest rate decision, FOMC Meeting and PCE.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹Internal Bearish
🔹In Swing Discount
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bearish with iBOS following the Bearish Swing. (End of 2023 till end of 2024 was a pullback phase after the first bearish iBOS)
3️⃣
🔹After the bearish iBOS we expect a pullback, price tapped into liquidity below Nov 2022 which is above the weekly demand formed with the initiation of the bearish iBOS pullback phase.
🔹Price made a bullish CHoCH which indicates that the liquidity was enough as per previous week analysis to initiate a pullback phase for the bearish iBOS.
🔹Price currently looking to target the liquidity built up during September 2024 and maybe reaching the Weekly supply zone (In INT structure Premium).
🔹Expectations of price to continue bullish to sweep the liquidity/mitigate supply zone while putting in consideration that we can have a pullback after the bullish CHoCH to weekly newly demand formed.
Daily Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Continuation Phase (Pro Swing + Pro Internal)
2️⃣
🔹Following the Bearish Swing BOS, INT Structure continuing bearish approaching the weekly demand zone.
3️⃣
🔹After the failure to close below the Weak INT Low, price continued bullish sweeping the liquidity above Dec 30 and currently mitigating a Daily supply zone within the INT Structure Premium Zone.
🔹The current Daily supply zone could provide an intraday pullback to daily demand formed to continue bullish and target the INT High as this is the weekly liquidity currently to be targeted. Also, I put in consideration that the structure is bearish and we should be continuing down to target the Weak INT low. But I want to see more development on LTF to confirm this scenario.
🔹Expectations is set to continue bullish with cautious on the bearish scenario.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bullish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Continuation after BOS
2️⃣
🔹INT structure continuing bullish after the bullish BOS. We expect that at anytime the Swing Pullback will start.
🔹Currently price at a Daily Supply Zone that can initiate at least INT Structure Pullback and may extend to Swing Pullback to at least Swing EQ (50%)/Daily and Weekly Demand.
3️⃣
🔹Expectation is price to initiate a pullback for the Bullish INT structure and then continue bullish from demand to target the Daily INT High/Weekly Liquidity.
🔹More development required on LTFs/Intraday Analysis.
Economic Events for the Week
EUR-USD Strong Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD is trading in a
Local uptrend and the pair
Made a bullish breakout of
The key horizontal level
Of 1.0458 which reinforces
Our bullish bias and will
Be expecting a further
Bullish move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
Weekly FOREX Forecast Jan 27 - 31stThis is an outlook for the week of Jan 27-31th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD is retracing from the M+W TF Supply Zone. The sellers are in control... for now. The macro view is that the bullish up trend is not broken. Be mindful of this. For now, selling the USD is in order, and buying the EUR, GBP, NZD, AUD, CAD, CHF, are the best moves. Keep and eye on an indecisive JPY, and wait for a break of the consolidation.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
HelenP. I After correction movement, Euro will continue growHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. In this chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the resistance level and then tried to grow, but failed and soon fell back. Next, the price some time traded near this level and then broke it and dropped below. After this, the price almost rose back, but then turned around and dropped more to the trend line, breaking the support level, which coincided with the support zone. Later Euro rebounded from the trend line and rose to almost a resistance level, after which turned around and dropped back, breaking the trend line with the support level again. After this movement, Euro rebounded up, breaking the support level one more time, and then made a retest and continued to move up until it reached the trend line. Then price continued to move up near the trend line and soon broke the resistance level, but recently fell below. At the moment, I expect that EURUSD, after correction movement, can continue to move up, breaking the resistance level with the trend line. So, for this case, I set my goal at 1.0550 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Euro can enter to seller zone and then drop to support lineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see how the price a few moments ago price entered to wedge and started to decline, but firstly it entered to seller zone and then bounced down. In a short time, the Euro declined to the support level, which coincided with the buyer zone, and soon broke this level and fell to the support line of the wedge. Then the price turned around and started to grow. Euro quickly rose to the support level, broke this level one more time, and made a retest, after which rose a little more. After this movement, the EUR some time traded near the support level until it reached the support line of the wedge and then bounced up from this line to the resistance level. When Euro reached this level, it corrected and then continued to move up to the seller zone. When the price entered to this area, the Euro some time traded inside and later reached the resistance line of a wedge, after which rebounded down. Price broke the 1.0420 level and continued to fall. At the moment, the price is traded below this level and I think that the price can fall to rise to the seller zone and then drop to the support line of the wedge. After this, the Euro can exit from this pattern, make a retest, and continue to decline to the support level. So, that's why I set 1st TP at 1.0350 points and 2nd at the 1.0260 level. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD: Short Trade Explained
EURUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.0491
Stop Loss - 1.0534
Take Profit - 1.0395
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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