EURUSD Will Go Higher From Support! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 1h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is on a crucial zone of demand 1.172.
The oversold market condition in a combination with key structure gives us a relatively strong bullish signal with goal 1.177 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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EURUSD
EURUSD: Will Go Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break below the current local range around 1.17225 will confirm the new direction downwards with the target being the next key level of 1.17114.and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
EURUSD: focus on jobs dataThe major macro data for this week, the PCE indicator, was posted on Friday. The Personal Consumption Expenditure index, Feds favorite inflation gauge, increased by 0,1% in May, bringing the index to the level of 2,3% on a yearly basis. Both figures were in line with market expectations. The core PCE was a bit higher than anticipated, at the level of 0,2% for the month and 2,7% for the year. A bit surprising figures came from Personal Income in May, which dropped by -0,4%, while the Personal Spending was down by -0,1% in May. Analysts are noting that implemented trade tariffs are slowly beginning to reflect in the personal spending of the US citizens. Also, this sort of potential development was noted by the Fed during the last two FOMC meetings.
The rest of posted macro data for the US included the Existing Home Sales in May reached 4,03M, which was an increase of 0,8% on a monthly basis. This was significantly above the market estimate of -1,3%. The Durable Goods Orders in May were higher by 16,4%, surpassing the market estimate of 8,5%. The GDP Growth Rate final for Q1was standing in a negative territory of -0,5% for the quarter, and was higher from market expectation of -0,2%. The end of the week brought University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures final for June, which was standing at 60,7 and was in line with estimates. The Inflation Expectations were a bit higher from the previous estimate, ending the June with expected 5% inflation, while the market was expecting to see 5,1%.
The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for June in Germany was standing at the level of 49, while the same index for the Euro Zone reached 49,4. Both indicators were in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in Germany in June reached 88,4, in line with market estimates. The GfK Consumer Confidence in July was at the level of -20,3, a bit higher from estimated -19,3.
The eurusd was traded with a bullish sentiment during the previous week. The currency pair started the week around the level of 1,1460 and continued toward the upside for the rest of the week. The highest weekly level at 1,1741 was reached in Friday's trading session. The RSI reached the clear overbought market side as of the end of the week, at the level of 71. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the potential cross is near.
The market favored the euro during the last two weeks. It comes as a result of insecurity when it comes to potential negative impact of implemented trade tariffs, which are slowly revealing in the US economy. The week ahead brings more jobs data, including JOLTs, NFP and unemployment rate, which will shape the investors sentiment. Some increased volatility might be ahead. The resistance level at 1,17 has been clearly tested during the previous week, and it will mark the beginning of the week ahead. The RSI is pointing to a higher probability of a short term reversal in the coming period, which might occur in the week ahead, impacted, most probably, by jobs data. In case of a reversal, the level of 1,1620 might easily be the next target. On the opposite side, there is a lower probability of a further move above the 1,17 level, however, the market might spend some time here, before a decision to make further move.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: Retail Sales in May in Germany, Inflation Rate preliminary in June for both Germany and the Euro Zone, Unemployment Rate in June in Germany,
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI in June, JOLTs Job Openings in May, Non-farm Payrolls in June, Unemployment rate in June, Average Hourly Earnings and Spending, ISM Services PMI in June
EUR/USD - Liquidity grabbed! Move towards the 4H FVG next?This chart illustrates a short-term bearish outlook on the EUR/USD currency pair, using smart money concepts like liquidity grabs, fair value gaps (FVGs), and structural levels such as support and protected lows. It is based on the 1-hour timeframe and references a higher timeframe (4H) for added confluence.
Liquidity Sweep
At the top of the recent price movement, a "Liquidity sweep" is marked, suggesting that the market pushed above recent highs to trigger stop-losses of short positions or entice breakout traders before reversing. This kind of move is common in smart money concepts and typically precedes a directional shift, which in this case, is anticipated to be downward. This sweep likely removed buy-side liquidity and indicates that institutional traders may now seek to target sell-side liquidity below recent lows.
Support Zone
The green shaded area labeled "Support" represents a previous consolidation or demand zone that temporarily held price after the liquidity sweep. This zone is seen as a short-term reaction point where price may consolidate or bounce slightly before continuing lower. However, the dashed black line projection suggests that this support is not expected to hold long-term, as price is forecasted to break below it.
Protected Low
A previous low is labeled "Protected low," implying that it hasn’t been violated during recent downward moves. This term often refers to a structural level that, if broken, confirms a shift in market structure. In this context, the projection anticipates that price will break below this protected low, indicating a bearish intent and unlocking further downside movement.
4H Fair Value Gap (FVG)
The large blue zone labeled "4H FVG" marks an imbalance or inefficiency on the 4-hour chart. This zone is referred to as a "Strong bullish 4h FVG," suggesting that once the sell-side liquidity is taken and the lower targets are met, this area is expected to act as a high-probability demand zone. Institutional traders often look for price to fill these FVGs before reversing, as they represent unmitigated institutional orders. The projected path implies that this is the ultimate downside target where price may react bullishly.
Conclusion
Overall, this analysis outlines a bearish short-term scenario for EUR/USD. After sweeping liquidity above recent highs, price is expected to respect the bearish order flow, break through the current support level, and move below the protected low. The ultimate downside target lies within the strong 4H FVG, where a significant bullish reaction might occur. This suggests a classic smart money play, manipulate (sweep liquidity), shift (break structure), and mitigate (return to FVG)—offering a well-structured trade idea for both intraday and swing traders.
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Bullish rise?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1578
1st Support: 1.1278
1st Resistance: 1.1909
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EURUSD H4 I Bullish BounceBased on the H4 chart analysis, the price is falling toward our buy entry level at 1.1631, a pullback support.
Our take profit is set at 1.1745, a swing high resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fib extension.
The stop loss is placed at 1.1582, an overlap support.
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Ethereum Rebounds from Strong Base – ATH in Sight?Hello traders, here’s the CRYPTOCAP:ETH Monthly Outlook
Ethereum is flashing early signs of a bullish reversal, with a clean Morning Star candlestick pattern forming right above the $1,050–$1,200 support zone, a historically strong base.
After bouncing hard from this level, ETH is now approaching the major resistance area at $3,400–$3,800, the same zone that previously rejected upward moves.
If ETH can break and close above this resistance, we could see the start of a fresh bullish leg. But until then, this zone remains a major hurdle.
Keep an eye on the monthly close, it could confirm a shift in long-term momentum.
DYOR, NFA
Thanks for following along — stay tuned for more updates!
EURUSD WEEKLY HIGHER TIME FRAME FORECAST Q3 W27 Y25EURUSD WEEKLY HIGHER TIME FRAME FORECAST Q3 W27 Y25
Professional Risk Managers👋
Welcome back to another FRGNT chart update📈
Diving into some Forex setups using predominantly higher time frame order blocks alongside confirmation breaks of structure.
Let’s see what price action is telling us today! 👀
💡Here are some trade confluences📝
✅Weekly Order block identified
✅Daily Order block identified
✅4H Order Block identified
🔑 Remember, to participate in trading comes always with a degree of risk, therefore as professional risk managers it remains vital that we stick to our risk management plan as well as our trading strategies.
📈The rest, we leave to the balance of probabilities.
💡Fail to plan. Plan to fail.
🏆It has always been that simple.
❤️Good luck with your trading journey, I shall see you at the very top.
🎯Trade consistent, FRGNT X
EURUSD: Short Trading Opportunity
EURUSD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short EURUSD
Entry Point - 1.1717
Stop Loss - 1.1764
Take Profit - 1.1614
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Master Your Edge: It’s Not About Just Being Right
Most traders obsess over being right on every trade. But the truth is, consistent profitability doesn’t come from perfect predictions—it comes from disciplined risk management.
Mark Douglas reminds us:
“Trading is not about being right or wrong. It’s about how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”
Focus less on proving yourself right, and more on protecting your capital when you’re wrong. That’s how professionals thrive in uncertain markets.
#MJTrading
#TradingPsychology #MarkDouglas #ForexMindset #TraderMindset #EURUSD #TradingQuotes #ForexLife #RiskManagement #TradingDiscipline #ForexEducation #ChartOfTheDay #PriceAction #MindOverMarkets
EUR/USD – Smart Money Trap at 1.18? Massive Rejection Ahead 1. Technical Context
The pair has been moving inside a well-defined bullish channel since May, forming higher highs and higher lows. Price is currently hovering around 1.1718, approaching the upper boundary of the channel and a key weekly supply zone (1.1750–1.1850).
➡️ Potential scenario:
A short bullish extension toward 1.1780–1.1820 to trigger stop hunts, followed by a bearish rejection toward 1.1500, and potentially 1.1380.
The daily RSI is overbought (>70), suggesting a likely short-term correction.
2. Retail Sentiment
80% of retail traders are short, with an average entry around 1.1318.
This signals a liquidity cluster above current highs, increasing the likelihood of a fake bullish breakout followed by a sell-off.
➡️ Contrarian insight: Retail heavily short → market may push higher first to wipe them out before reversing lower.
3. COT Report – USD Index (DXY)
Non-commercials (speculators) increased their short exposure on USD (+3,134).
Commercials cut their short positions (-1,994), indicating a potential bottoming on the dollar.
➡️ Conclusion: USD strength could return soon → bearish pressure for EUR/USD.
4. COT Report – EUR FX
Non-commercials increased longs on EUR (+2,980) and sharply reduced shorts (-6,602) → market is now heavily net long.
Commercials remain net short (581,664 vs 417,363 longs).
➡️ Over-leveraged spec longs → vulnerable to downside squeeze if macro sentiment shifts.
5. Seasonality
June tends to be mildly bullish for EUR/USD.
July historically shows even stronger upward performance over the last 5–10 years.
➡️ Shorts are high risk in the very short term, but a bearish setup is likely in the second half of July, especially if price action confirms.
6. Trading Outlook
📍 Short-Term Bias: Neutral to bullish toward 1.1780–1.1820
📍 Mid-Term Bias: Bearish on rejection from supply area and break of channel
🎯 Key Levels:
1.1780–1.1850: critical decision zone (liquidity + weekly supply)
1.1500: first key support
1.1380: next downside target (demand zone + previous POC)
📌 Final Conclusion
The most likely play is a short setup from 1.1780–1.1850 on strong rejection, supported by:
Extreme retail positioning (80% short),
COT pointing to USD recovery,
Extended technical structure,
Overbought RSI on the daily chart.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis for Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis
and important supports & resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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RSI Flashes Warning on EURUSD: Critical Level Under Watch!Good morning traders,
If the EURUSD pair breaks below the 1.16729 level due to an RSI divergence, the next potential target could be around 1.16093.
Keep in mind that a break below 1.16729 may also signal a potential trend reversal.
I've marked the pivot points for you on the chart for better clarity.
Additionally, it's crucial to keep an eye on current economic data and news releases as part of your fundamental analysis.
I meticulously prepare these analyses for you, and I sincerely appreciate your support through likes. Every like from you is my biggest motivation to continue sharing my analyses.
I’m truly grateful for each of you—love to all my followers💙💙💙
Elliott Wave Analysis for EUR/USD - Bullish OutlookPEPPERSTONE:EURUSD
This analysis is based on the application of Elliott Wave principles for the EUR/USD market on a weekly timeframe.
💡 Wave Identification:
Corrective Cycle (ABC): After a peak marked by wave B, the market completed a 5-wave downward structure (waves 1 to 5), forming wave C, signaling a possible end of the correction.
Potential Reversal Zone (2/B): The current point is a strategic level where a bullish rebound is anticipated.
📊 Projection:
A bullish impulse is expected from point C. The initial target lies in the 1.1140 - 1.1217 zone, corresponding to key resistance levels and Fibonacci projections.
🧠 Conclusion:
A breakout above 1.0440 could confirm a significant bullish impulse, suggesting buyers are regaining control.
⚠️ Disclaimer : This analysis is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research before investing.
Bitcoin Bounced Right Where It ShouldBitcoin continues to respect the script — breakout, clean retest, and now holding strong.
The 50 EMA has been a reliable dynamic support throughout the entire uptrend, and once again, it helped catch the recent dip. Price has now successfully retested the breakout zone and is starting to bounce.
Structure looks healthy, momentum is building, and unless the support fails, the next leg up could be just around the corner.
Simple setups. No noise. Just trend.
DYOR, NFA
EURUSD What Next? SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The market is trading on 1.1716 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 1.1635
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
HelenP. I Euro will drop to trend line, after movement upHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. If we look at the chart, we can see that EURUSD has been moving in a stable upward trend, supported by a clear ascending trend line. Each time the price approached this line, it rebounded and continued to grow, respecting the bullish structure. After the recent breakout from the support zone around 1.1500, the market made a strong impulse to the upside and reached a local high. Now, the momentum seems to be slowing down, which opens the possibility for a corrective movement. Given this setup, I expect that the price could first make a small upward push to trap late buyers, and then turn around to begin a decline. The trend line remains a critical technical level, and I anticipate the price will revisit it soon. For this reason, I’ve placed my goal at 1.1575 points — this area aligns with the trend line and can serve as the next support if a pullback occurs. As long as this level holds, the market remains in a bullish structure, but a correction seems likely before further growth. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment.
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
BTC - Will the Bears finally get their chance?Buy Side Liquidity Sweep in Progress
Price is currently climbing toward a region densely packed with resting buy side liquidity, marked by multiple previous highs. The area around 108,900 to 111,000 is especially significant, with two clear liquidity pools stacked above recent swing highs. These levels are likely to attract price as market participants seek to trigger stop orders and induce fresh buying interest—setting the stage for a potential reversal.
Weakness in the Current Impulse
The recent rally has advanced with minimal retracement and virtually no visible Gaps. This lack of corrective structure often indicates imbalance and suggests the move is overextended. When price moves upward too cleanly, it tends to leave behind thin liquidity zones, making the entire leg vulnerable to a sharper correction once exhaustion sets in.
Fair Value Gap as a Draw Below
Below current price lies a prominent bullish Fair Value Gap around 104,000. This inefficiency was left unfilled during the last leg up and may now serve as a magnet for price. These types of Gaps are often revisited by the market in an effort to rebalance supply and demand, especially after aggressive moves that break structure to the upside.
Once the higher liquidity levels are swept, watch for a clear reaction—either a strong rejection or lower timeframe structure shift—which could signal that the top is in. If that shift materializes, price may begin a downward leg targeting the unfilled Gap below. The magnitude of the move, combined with the lack of structure on the way up, leaves plenty of room for corrective action.
For those looking to engage, waiting for confirmation on a lower timeframe—such as a break of short-term bullish structure or the formation of a bearish Gap—can help time entries more precisely. In setups like these, patience is key: let the Sweep play out, observe how price reacts, and only then consider stepping in.
EURUSD Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for EURUSD is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.1716
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.1644
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Soybeans Crashing Into Demand — Reversal Coming or Trap?1. COT REPORT — Updated June 17, 2025
📌 Non-Commercials (Speculators)
Long: +5,661 → 195,984
Short: -9,226 → 110,761
✅ Net Long Increase: A clear bullish shift in speculative positioning (+14,887 net contracts). This is an early indication of a sentiment reversal.
📌 Commercials (Hedgers / Producers)
Long: +6,023
Short: -5,806
➡️ The decrease in net shorts suggests improving confidence among institutional players.
📌 Total Open Interest: 846,169 (down by 12,776)
❗ This slight drop may be linked to position rotation or partial profit-taking.
2. NET POSITIONS CHART INSIGHT
Commercial traders remain structurally net short, but their exposure has been gradually declining since March.
Non-commercial traders have increased their net long positions since April, aligned with the price's technical recovery.
The current price is trading near the historical mean, indicating neutral conditions with potential room for further upside.
🕰️ 3. SEASONALITY OUTLOOK
The June–July period has historically been bearish:
June Average Performance:
Last 5 years: -39.61
Last 2 years: -38.71
July Average Performance:
Last 20 years: -44.82
Last 2 years: -34.73
📉 August and September typically continue this seasonal downtrend.
🟨 Caution is advised on initiating long positions during this phase.
📊 4. TECHNICAL OUTLOOK —
Current Structure:
Rising channel has broken to the downside with a strong bearish impulse candle.
RSI is neutral but previously showed bearish divergence.
Key Support Zones:
1035–1025: Intermediate support area already tested.
1012–994: Golden Pocket aligned with a demand block — likely target zone with high potential for reaction.
Possible Scenarios:
🔴 Bearish Continuation: A retracement followed by a move down into the 994–1000 range, where a tactical long setup may emerge.
🔵 Bull Trap and Reversal: A rapid recovery above 1050, potentially triggering a continuation to 1080 (range top).
5. EXECUTION SUMMARY
Primary Bias: Bearish in the short term
🎯 Target Zone: 994–1000
🛑 Invalidation Level: Weekly close above 1055
Tactical Long Setup: Monitor price action at 994–1000 for bullish reaction.
Macro context and speculative positioning suggest a structural bottom may develop in Q3 2025, but current conditions are not yet favorable for a full swing position.
CADCHF at the Cliff's Edge – Is a Breakdown Imminent? 🧭 Technical Context
Price is currently sitting at the key support area of 0.5890–0.5900, tested multiple times since April.
This week’s candlestick shows a clear close below the intermediate micro-structure (two consecutive closes under recent lows), confirming bearish pressure.
The weekly RSI remains in a neutral-to-low zone, trending downwards with no active bullish divergence.
📉 Technical Conclusion: Active bearish bias. Watch out for potential false breaks below 0.5890 as liquidity traps.
📊 COT Report – as of June 17, 2025
🇨🇦 CAD
Non-Commercials: added +8.5k long contracts, aggressively cut −18.3k shorts
→ Excessive optimism, potential exhaustion on the buy-side
Commercials: added +31k shorts
→ Typical hedge behavior – signaling protection from CAD devaluation
🇨🇭CHF
Net positions in gradual decline with no sharp moves → CHF remains in consolidation, with a defensive tone
Open Interest dropped by −19.5k → Institutional money exiting positions
→ Interpretation: Market likely preparing for a directional breakout, CHF could act as a safe haven
📉 COT Conclusion: CAD appears overbought, CHF still gathering strength. Bearish bias on CADCHF remains intact.
📅 Seasonality – June Pattern
CHF tends to strengthen in June:
+0.0095 (10Y average), +0.0068 (5Y average)
CAD shows structural weakness in June:
−0.0027 (10Y), −0.0076 (5Y)
📉 Seasonality Conclusion: June favors CAD weakness and CHF strength → Bearish confirmation for CADCHF
🧠 Retail Sentiment
92% of retail traders are long CADCHF, only 8% are short
→ Extreme imbalance = classic contrarian signal
📉 Sentiment Conclusion: Confirms potential for continued downside on CADCHF
✅ Trade Plan Summary
📌 Base scenario:
Short CADCHF if we get a daily/weekly close below 0.5890
🎯 Target 1: 0.5820
🎯 Target 2: 0.5770
🚫 Invalidation: daily close above 0.5960 (invalidates current setup)
📌 Alternative scenario:
Short from 0.5960–0.6000 if we get a bearish rejection pattern → ideal for better R/R