Trump Reassures on Trade and FedThe EUR/USD traded near 1.1350 on Friday, while the US Dollar Index rose above 99.5, recovering from earlier losses. The dollar strengthened after President Trump reassured markets that trade talks with China would continue, despite Beijing’s denials. Optimism also grew on reported progress with Japan and South Korea. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Bessent said US-China tariffs must be reduced significantly for real progress, increasing hopes for a deal. Trump also eased monetary policy concerns by stating he never planned to remove Fed Chair Powell. Although Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack mentioned a rate cut in June if needed, renewed trade optimism lifted the dollar.
Key resistance is at 1.1460, followed by 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, then 1.1200 and 1.1150.
EURUSD
Nasdaq on Thin Ice? Smart Money is Bearish!📊 COT Analysis – NASDAQ E-MINI Futures
Asset Managers → Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows.
Leveraged Money → Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce.
✅ COT Conclusion:
Smart money is not buying the dip → fundamental bias = bearish.
🧠 Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade
📉 Structure:
Strong rejection from the 16,700–17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation.
Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone → confirming strong buyer pressure.
🎯 My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP):
Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone
Target: Supply zone 20,400–21,000
Exit: Closed just before the drop → perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance
📈 Post-trade context:
Price then rejected violently from that zone → we’re now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700.
🧭 What’s Next?
🔹 If price pulls back to 19,200–19,500, I’ll look for a short setup
🔹 If it breaks below 18,000 → clean path toward 16,700–16,500
✅ Trade Summary
🔥 Long from structural demand zone → exit at weekly supply
🧠 Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence
🐻 Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely
GBP/JPY at the Edge! Bounce or Breakdown? The weekly chart of GBP/JPY reveals a highly volatile scenario, with a recent bearish expansion pushing the price back toward a key support zone between 185.00 and 188.30 — an area that has been defended multiple times in the past. After an attempted recovery toward the supply zone between 194.00 and 195.00, the pair encountered heavy selling pressure, failing to break out and sharply reversing.
From a technical perspective, the move suggests a possible swing failure above local highs, with the current weekly candle confirming a return below resistance. Price action is now within a critical area: if the current support holds, we could see a technical rebound with interim targets at 191.40 and potentially back toward 194.00. However, a breakdown below 185.00 would open the door to deeper correction, with possible extensions toward 182.00 and 180.00 — both zones marked by previous accumulation.
The RSI, after dipping into oversold territory, is now attempting a reaction, indicating that buyers are trying to regain control, though the structure remains fragile. Strategically, this phase demands caution: aggressive longs may seek confirmation of reversal above current lows, while bearish traders should closely watch for a confirmed breakdown below support. The 188.30 to 191.40 price range will be key to monitoring the next directional move.
GBP/NZD Breakdown Imminent? Smart Money and Seasonality Say YES!🧠 1. Price Action & Technical Structure
Price was firmly rejected from the monthly supply zone between 2.33 – 2.35, marked by strong bearish candles.
A bounce occurred at the weekly demand between 2.20 – 2.22, where accumulation and a short-term reversal formed (dashed white arrow).
Currently, price is trading near the lower bound of a compression range (2.22 – 2.26), sitting below a key intermediate resistance (dark teal zone).
RSI is in the neutral-to-low zone, with no major divergence, leaving room for further downside.
Technical Bias: Neutral to Bearish unless we get a weekly close above 2.26–2.27.
📊 2. COT Data
GBP
Asset Managers remain net short, though improving since January.
Leveraged Money sharply reducing long exposure since early April → Institutional bullish sentiment weakening.
NZD
Asset Managers have been heavily short for over a year, but shorts are being reduced since February → slight sentiment recovery.
Leveraged Money flat, with no clear long build-up yet.
➡️ Combined COT Outlook: The GBP's advantage over NZD is fading. This supports a sideways to slightly bearish outlook on GBP/NZD.
📅 3. Seasonality
April: Historically bearish for GBP/NZD (–0.2971 avg.), aligning with current downward move.
May: Also typically bearish (–0.2964 avg.) → suggesting potential continued weakness.
➡️ Seasonal Bias: Bearish through mid-to-late May.
🧠 4. Retail Sentiment
Around 70% of retail traders are long GBP/NZD → classic contrarian bearish signal.
Average long entry: 2.1800, current price: 2.2246 → many longs in profit.
Potential for profit taking or breakeven pullback adds to bearish pressure.
📌 Trade Plan Summary
Weekly Bias: → Bearish / Range-bound
📉 Short Zones of Interest:
2.26 – 2.27 → key resistance zone
Stop above 2.2850 (H4/H1 close above invalidates setup)
🎯 Targets:
2.2050 → recent demand re-test
2.1850 / 2.1650 → deeper demand zones visible on chart
🧠 Invalidation Level:
Daily close above 2.2850 → structure turns bullish
XAU/USD - Bearish Flag Pattern (25.04.2025)The XAU/USD Pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Selling Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Bearish Flag Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming hours.
Possible Short Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Short Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Support – 3232
2nd Support – 3188
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EUR/USD: Is the Uptrend Losing Steam?EUR/USD has had an exceptionally strong month, gaining over 7% from bottom to top – one of the best performances in EUR’s history against the dollar.
But now, things are starting to shift.
🧭 Possible Long-Term Trend Change?
Beyond the impressive rally, the bigger story might be the potential shift in the long-term trend. However, after such a sharp move up, a correction is not only likely – it may already be underway.
🔍 Technical Outlook:
- Price pushed above the key 1.15 psychological level but failed to hold momentum.
- A bearish consolidation is forming.
- A classic Head and Shoulders pattern appears to be developing, with a neckline near 1.13.
- A break of that level could open the door for a deeper retracement, with a target around 1.11.
🛠️ Trading Plan:
I’m looking to sell rallies, ideally near 1.1450, to maintain a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
LONG....BEU @ 1.1344just executed long...BEU @ 1.1344
💯 solid setup...watch this takeoff 🛫
expecting min DD max RRR till Friday NYC...
TP1 and SL as shown until final TP2 projected by system.
alert based on multi system confluence convergence and confirmations.... system beeping 😉
let's test n see 🙈
appreciate any feedback for continuous improvement.
cheers 🥂
Could the price reverse from here?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1421
1st Support: 1.1141
1st Resistance: 1/1459
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Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the Fiber reverse from here?The price is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1427
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1560
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 1.1281
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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EURUSD: Will Start Growing! Here is Why:
The recent price action on the EURUSD pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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EURUSD Will Go Lower! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.137.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.129.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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EURUSD: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse EURUSD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 1.13635 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 1.13243..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
DeGRAM | EURUSD Holding in the Demand Zone📊 Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is still capped by $1.16 and has slipped back under its trend-line, keeping bearish divergence alive; sub-1.145 trade leaves $1.134 then $1.12 exposed.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
Euro-area confidence and PMI hover near stagnation amid fresh U.S. tariff threats.
U.S. payrolls jumped 228 k in Mar, and Fed officials favour steady rates, keeping yields and USD firm.
✨ Summary
Eurozone softness versus robust U.S. data widens policy divergence, aligning with the technical rejection at $1.16. A daily close below $1.134 should quicken a slide toward $1.12.
-------------------
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EURUSD Bearish Price is likely to return to a strong rejection area, which is significant due to the presence of both an Order Block (OB) and a Breaker Block. This confluence makes it a key supply zone. Additionally, this area may potentially form the right shoulder of a developing Head and Shoulders pattern, suggesting a possible bearish reversal from that zone."
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.15878.Colleagues, I believe .that the five-wave movement is not over yet and another wave of upward movement is waiting for us.
I believe that wave “4” has almost completed the correction or has already completed it. In any case, I consider the main target to be the resistance area at 1.15878, which is the minimum target and the top of wave “3”.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Euro H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementThe Euro (EUR/USD) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 1.1426 which is a pullback resistance that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 1.1583 which is a level that sits a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 1.1274 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2025 EURUSDEvent to watch out for today:
15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S.
EURUSD:
EUR/USD rises towards the 1.1335 level during the early Asian session on Thursday. Easing concerns over potential tariff threats from US President Donald Trump are putting some pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
According to the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book report released on Wednesday, businesses facing the early stages of Trump's tariffs are looking for ways to pass on rising costs to consumers. Companies have reported receiving warnings from suppliers about price increases and are looking for ways not to absorb those increases, noting uncertainty about whether they can pass them on to customers.
Earlier this month, Trump imposed a basic import tax of 10 per cent or more on dozens of countries, but then unexpectedly suspended the taxes for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate lower rates. Nevertheless, trade policy uncertainty and concerns over slowing economic growth in the US could drive the dollar lower and create a tailwind for EUR/USD.
Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its main interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 2.25% at its April meeting. During a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the US tariffs on EU goods, which have increased from an average of 3% to 13%, are already hurting the prospects of the European economy.
Trading recommendation: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1320, TP 1.1430
XauUsd (Gold)Good day traders, I haven’t been feeling well but I thought let me give you Gold will I recover.
Gold on the 4h we had a shift in structure lower and for our daily that’s just confirms a reversal I’ve been anticipating for a while now.
But here we focusing on what price is currently doing on the 1 hour and 15 minutes, there in that rectangle box that represents my inverse FVG which we saw price close above. Now we wanna see price falling the close below that inverse to enter long.
USDCAD at Risk? COT Turns Bearish📊 COT Overview – CAD & USD Futures
🇨🇦 Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Asset Managers: Still net short, but recovering fast → from -150K to nearly -50K.
Leveraged Money: Strong bullish reversal from -100K to -30K and climbing.
✅ Interpretation: Institutions are flipping bullish on CAD → Bearish pressure on USDCAD.
🇺🇸 US Dollar (USD)
Asset Managers: Cutting long exposure since March.
Leveraged Money: Losing conviction → neutral to slightly long.
⚠️ Interpretation: USD is structurally weakening → adding to the USDCAD bearish bias.
🧠 Technical Analysis
Price has returned to the key demand zone (1.3700–1.3850) for the third test.
Candles are compressing → signal of upcoming volatility.
RSI remains weak, no bullish divergence → no clear reversal yet.
📌 Key Levels:
Support: 1.3700 → A confirmed break opens space toward 1.3550–1.3480.
Resistance: 1.3950–1.4100
🎯 Trade Scenarios
🔻 Breakdown trade below 1.3700 → Target: 1.3480
🔁 Pullback short on rejection from 1.3950–1.4000 → SL above 1.4100
🔼 Long only with a bullish engulfing weekly close + RSI divergence
✅ Summary
COT Bias: Bearish USDCAD → CAD strengthening, USD weakening
Technical Structure: Support under pressure, breakout likely
Preferred Play: Short continuation on breakdown or pullback rejection
Bullish bounce for the Fiber?The price is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1270
1st Support: 1.1141
1st Resistance: 1.1427
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
XAUUSD BULLISH OR BEARISH DETAILED ANALYSISAs a professional forex trader, I'm closely monitoring XAUUSD, currently trading around $3,329. After reaching an all-time high of $3,500 earlier this week, gold has pulled back due to profit-taking and improved risk sentiment following President Trump's softened stance on the Federal Reserve and U.S.-China trade relations. citeturn0news46 Despite this correction, the broader trend remains bullish, with the market finding support near $3,228, a level that has attracted buying interest.
Technically, gold is rebounding from this key support level, suggesting the potential for a renewed upward move. The price action indicates that buyers are stepping in, viewing the dip as a buying opportunity within the ongoing uptrend. A sustained move above $3,400 could open the path toward the next resistance levels, with a target price around $3,500.
Fundamentally, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025, starting as early as June, are supportive of gold prices. citeturn0news35 Additionally, ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about global economic growth continue to underpin demand for safe-haven assets like gold. These factors contribute to a favorable environment for gold bulls in the medium term.
In summary, the recent pullback in XAUUSD appears to be a healthy correction within a larger bullish trend. The rebound from support levels, combined with supportive fundamentals, suggests that gold may be poised for another leg higher. Traders should watch for a break above $3,400 as confirmation of the next bullish wave.