Will Trump's tariff threat be an obstacle to an ECB rate cut?
Both short-term dollar weakness and the ECB’s increased inflation concerns have clearly propelled EURUSD upward. Finland's central bank governor, Oli Rehn, asserts that eurozone inflation will stabilize as anticipated and that monetary policy will continue to be constrained in the near future. Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde has issued a stark warning that the threat of tariffs is set to rise with Trump’s return to power, which could lead to significant inflation risks.
EURUSD breached above the descending channel’s upper bound and approached the resistance at 1.0470. EMA21 widens the gap after golden-crossing EMA78, indicating a possible shift to bullish momentum. If EURUSD breaches above 1.0470, the price could gain upward momentum toward 1.0560. Conversely, if EURUSD breaks below EMA21 and the support at 1.0360, the price may reenter the descending channel.
EURUSD
FOREX Forecast UPDATES! Jan 22, WednesdayIn this video, we will update the forecasts for the following FX markets:
USD Index
EURUSD
GBPUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
CAD, USDCAD
CHF, USDCHF
JPY, USDJPY
The USD Index is now reacting to the Weekly Supply Zone, turning over. There was a bearish MSS, so sells are valid. A BOS would confirm the bearish trend starting, but we need to see how the price action plays out over the next two days.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Bearish drop off overlap resistance?The Fiber (EUR/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support which acts as ab overlap support.
Pivot: 1.0450
1st Support: 1.0344
1st Resistance: 1.0538
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EUR/USD Gains Amid EU Trump Tariff FearsThe EUR/USD pair has risen to 1.0457, its highest in five weeks, as markets react positively to President Trump's decision to delay implementing strict tariffs. Initially, investors were concerned about the potential impact of protectionist policies on global growth and US inflation. However, Trump's pivot towards pro-business measures has bolstered market sentiment. Despite these developments, Trump has criticized the EU and suggested possible future tariffs, prompting ECB President Christine Lagarde to advise Europe to brace for potential trade actions. Lagarde has praised the decision to hold off on blanket tariffs. Concurrently, the ECB is expected to maintain its easing stance with a 25 basis points rate cut anticipated next week. As European leaders Macron and Scholz emphasize unity against US trade threats, the dollar index remains steady at 108.1 amid ongoing tariff uncertainty. Looking ahead, traders are closely monitoring US-EU trade tensions and the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could influence the EUR/USD pair's trajectory.
EUR-USD Local Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
EUR-USD went up after
The breakout just as I
Predicted in my previous
Analysis but now the pair
Has hit a horizontal resistance
Level of 1.0480 and we are
Already seeing a bearish
Reaction so we are locally
Bearish biased and we will
Be expecting a further
Local move down
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
EURUSD: Major breakout over the 1D MA50. Trend reversal.EURUSD turned neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.937, MACD = -0.002, ADX = 23.376) after a long time as it crossed today over the 1D MA50 for the first time in almost 4 months (last time on October 3rd 2024). In the meantime, it also crossed above the top of the Falling Wedge. The initial bullish signal was the 1D RSI Bullish Divergence on HL but now it is a confirmed buy, pointing to a long term trend reversal. Our target will be the 1D MA200, just under the 0.618 Fib (TP = 1.07600).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
EURUSD Macro Chart The macroeconomic situation forms a favorable background for assets valued in US dollars, with a tendency of their growth There comes a moment of domination of foreign currencies and displacement of the dollar. Shares of European companies will also show strong growth. The euro may have a noticeable impact on economic activity in the region and the structure of expenditures of the population.
EURUSD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0429
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0364
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
DeGRAM | EURUSD exit from the descending channelEURUSD is above the descending channel between the trend lines.
The price is moving from the dynamic support.
The chart approached the dynamic resistance and 62% retracement level.
We expect growth after consolidation above the upper trend line.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Euro will exit from pennant pattern and rise to 1.0400 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price some time traded inside the range, where it declined to the resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone, and then dropped to the support line, breaking the 1.0460 level. Then price turned around and started to grow near the support line until it reached the resistance level, after which it turned around making an impulse down, breaking the support line, and entering to buyer zone. After this movement, the Euro bounced from the buyer zone and started to grow to the resistance level, but when the price almost rose to this level, it turned around and started to decline inside the pennant pattern. In the pennant, Euro declined to the support line, breaking the support level, after which rebounded and quickly rose to the resistance line of this pattern, breaking the support level one more time. And now, the price continues to trades near this line, so, for this case, I think that the Euro can correct to support line of pennant. Then it will start to grow and even can exit from the pennant, after which continue to move up next. Therefore I set my TP at 1.0400 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD → Efforts to shift the global trendFX:EURUSD breaking the boundaries of the prolonged downtrend channel, the pair is currently struggling below the resistance level at 1.0448, aiming for consolidation that could set the stage for a further rally of at least 100 to 200 pips.
The global trend remains bearish, and it is still too early to confidently declare a reversal. Prices are facing significant pressure at the critical resistance level of 1.0448. However, signs of a potential breakout are beginning to emerge in this area. If the US dollar continues its corrective movement, EURUSD could have a chance to confirm a shift in the current trend. A decisive breakout above 1.0448, followed by consolidation, could pave the way for the next bullish momentum.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance levels: 1.0448, 1.0607
Support levels: 1.033, 1.0222
Currently, all eyes are on the critical resistance level of 1.0448. A breakout and stability above this level could provide an attractive entry point for long positions, setting the stage for the next phase of growth.
Sincerely, Bentradegold!
EURUSD Rally: Spotting the Next Trade Setup👀 👉 The EURUSD has been on a bullish run after breaking market structure on the 4H and 1D charts. However, the price now seems overextended. I’m watching for a retracement into the Fibonacci 50%-61.8% zone as a potential entry for a long position, depending on price action and the impact of upcoming news events. In this video, I break down my strategy to identify the next trade opportunity. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice.
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): Short to the 1.00784 support area.Colleagues, I think the downward movement is over. Wave “3” is just developing and it may be shorter or longer than we think, but we can be sure of one thing - the end of the five-wave movement will be lower than the minimum of 1.01753.
I believe that a correction to the 1.03442 area is possible, then I expect a continuation of the decline to the 1.00784 support area.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
EURUSD 22 Jan 2025 W4- Intraday Analysis - ECB Lagarde speechThis is my Intraday analysis on EURUSD for 22 Jan 2025 W4 based on Smart Money Concept (SMC) which includes the following:
Market Sentiment
4H Chart Analysis
15m Chart Analysis
Market Sentiment
Dovish ECB Policy Expectations: Traders are anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB policy meetings.
Economic Concerns: Subdued inflationary pressures and concerns over the Eurozone's economic outlook.
US Dollar Strength: Dollar appreciates following news that President Trump intends to review tariff policies.
4H Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bullish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹After the Bearish BOS, price pulled back to the Swing EQ (50%) tapping into a Daily and a 4H Supply that caused a Bearish CHoCH and forming a Supply that failed and created a bullish INT Structure.
3️⃣
🔹As price reached the Bearish Swing Extreme, if we are going to continue bearish, this is the area that I prefer to be short from. Also note that after the Bullish iBOS, price pulled back to the INT Structure EQ (50%) but didn't mitigate the 4H demand and just reacted from the previous INT structure range.
🔹With the current PA, there is a high probability that price will take out the Bearish Swing High to fulfil the Daily/Weekly requirement for a pullback. More LTFs development required for a clear direction.
15m Chart Analysis
1️⃣
🔹Swing Bearish
🔹INT Bearish
🔹Swing Pullback Phase (Pro Swing + Counter INT)
🔹At Swing Premium (reached extreme)
2️⃣
🔹INT Structure turned bearish yesterday after failing to break the Bearish Swing Strong High.
🔹Price pulled back after the Bearish iBOS and swept the liquidity above the Strong INT High.
3️⃣
🔹As mentioned in the 4H analysis, with the current PA there is a high probability that the Swing High will be broken but still no confirmation and technical is all pointing for bearish moves.
🔹My technical expectations still bearish till we have a Bullish BOS.
EurUsd- A nice bullish setup with 1.06 targetLike most major pairs, EUR/USD experienced a challenging final quarter of 2024, with the price dropping approximately 1,000 pips following the double top at 1.12.
The start of 2025 saw a further decline, breaking below the 1.0350 support level and reaching a low of 1.0180.
However, the market quickly reversed after this low.
On Monday, a strong Bullish Engulfing candlestick formed, reclaiming the 1.0350 support level.
Yesterday, this support was confirmed again, leaving a continuation Pin Bar on the daily chart. Adding to this bullish picture, the price also broke above the falling trend line, signaling a well-structured bullish setup.
Currently, the bulls have the upper hand. If the price manages to break above the horizontal resistance at 1.0440, the path should be clear for a rise toward the 1.06 zone.
In conclusion, buying on dips appears to be the ideal strategy, with invalidation of this setup occurring if the price falls below 1.03.
Smart Money Strategy: Short Opportunity with EUR/JPY Smart Money Strategy: Opportunity with EUR/JPY at Key Fibonacci Levels
The EUR/JPY pair is currently facing downward pressure, trading around 161.10, as speculation mounts over a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). With market expectations nearing a 92% likelihood of a rate increase by the BoJ in their upcoming January meeting, this could push short-term borrowing rates to the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, bolstering the Japanese Yen.
Key Levels for Strategic Entry:
Optimal Short Entry :
Focus on the 162.103 level, where the pair may encounter significant resistance.
Fibonacci Reversal Points
: The 0.75 and 0.71 levels are more than technical markers; they are critical points where institutional investors—often referred to as the 'smart money'—typically engage. These levels are key for identifying potential shifts in market dynamics.
This trade is not just about capitalizing on market trends—it's about strategically positioning at a technically significant level to maximize the potential for profits.
Follow for more insights and ideas
#tradingforex #trading #forex #tradingstrategy #Smartmoneyconcept #SMC #tradingtips #trader
GBP/USD: BOE Is Ready for the Big Cut!GBP/USD shows mixed signals, remaining below 1.2350, influenced by economic and political factors in both the UK and the US. After a strong rally on Monday, the pair lost momentum on Tuesday, driven by the recovery of the US Dollar and overall disappointing UK labor market data. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and a slowdown in employment growth weigh on the Pound, despite an annual wage increase of 5.6%. From a technical perspective, the RSI on the 4-hour chart signals a loss of bullish momentum, approaching the neutral level of 50 after being in the overbought zone. Key support levels are located at 1.2230 and 1.2200, while resistances are seen at 1.2350.
The Pound is also affected by an uncertain macroeconomic context, with Trump's comments indicating potential tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, supporting a recovery in the Dollar due to its safe-haven status. In the absence of significant US economic data, investor focus shifts to stock market performance: a negative opening on Wall Street could support the Dollar, exerting additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. In the short term, the pair may remain under pressure, with a potential test of key support levels, unless more solid signs of Pound strength or Dollar weakness emerge.
EURUSD - Heading for a Bullish BreakoutWe analysed EURUSD few days back and it was highlighting a Bearish move however this move was voided as price found support and moved upwards. Price is now near a Downward trendline where it has retraced several times in past. Due to Trump now in power and market settling down, we should see a Bullish break above as far as price respect support. MACD is also going green and pointing for a Bullish move.
Best approach is to go from level to level rather than aiming for a swing move as sentiments can switch anytime.
For entries, please wait for at least two candle reversals at the specified level and apply appropriate risk management.
If you found this analysis helpful, please consider boosting and following for more updates.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.
EURUSD Trading Opportunity! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the EURUSD next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.0392
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.0334
My Stop Loss - 1.0428
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD On The Rise! BUY!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.0266
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.0281
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK