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EURUSD

EURUSD – Bouncing on trendline amid EU optimismEURUSD continues to hold a strong upward momentum within a short-term ascending channel. After retesting the channel bottom around the 1.1360 zone, price is showing signs of rebounding, and a "small double bottom" pattern appears to be forming. If confirmed, EURUSD may rally toward the resistance area at 1.1447. Factors supporting the bullish trend: Trump temporarily postponed the 50% tariff on EU goods until July 9 → Trade tensions ease, supporting the euro. Germany's Q1 GDP grew by 0.4% – above expectations → Boosts confidence in Eurozone recovery. The ECB aims to elevate the euro’s global role (digital euro, cross-border payment improvements). Potential scenario: If the 1.1360 zone holds (channel bottom + EMA support), there is a high chance that price will retest and break above the 1.1447 resistance.
Long
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD Holds Structure Within Ascending Channel – Is 1.1400 NextOANDA:EURUSD is still trading within an ascending channel that has been well maintained since mid-May. After completing a corrective move toward the confluence area around 1.1258 – where the bottom of the ascending channel and a horizontal support zone intersect – price has bounced back with clear buying strength. The continued respect of the lower boundary suggests that the trend structure remains intact, and buyers are cautiously maintaining control of the market. The recent low can be viewed as a potential demand zone, as price reacted quickly and formed a recovery candle pattern near the trendline. With the ascending channel still intact, the preferred scenario is a continued move toward the mid-line of the channel around the 1.1400 area – which is also the nearest technical target. Buyers appear to be regaining control, but a clear confirmation through price action remains a key factor before entering any position. Traders should monitor for bullish confirmation signals, such as bullish engulfing, pin bar, or marubozu candles accompanied by strong volume, as these could serve as the initial confirmation for long entries. Conversely, if price breaks below this support zone and falls out of the ascending channel, the short-term outlook should be reassessed with caution. This is a personal view based on price action and technical analysis. It is not financial advice. Always adhere to risk management in every trading decision.
Long
by LucasMgoldview
1
EURUSD H4 | Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is currently at our sell entry at 1.1397 (Bearish OB) Our take profit will be at 1.1342, a pullback support. The stop loss will be placed at 1.1457, above the 161.8% Fibo extension. High Risk Investment Warning Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you. Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ): Losses can exceed deposits. Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd. The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Short
by Tradu
Deciphering EURUSD —Highest Level Since 2018 (1.40)This was a hard chart, I couldn't quite put my finger on it. I had to check multiple timeframes and several indicators, it was all mixed, plus, I had the geopolitical landscape in mind which made it even harder. All is clear after looking at the monthly timeframe. The weekly and daily MACD were also of help. MA200 revealed the trend. The RSI as well. Here is the conclusion: The Euro is going to rally against the dollar. Next long-term target is 1.40 as shown on the chart. There will be a strong rise on this pair. Current monthly candle is quite revealing, this month will close ultra-strong, super bullish signal. Four months closing green. Rising volume. I don't know how you trade this stuff but the trend is up. Betting with the trend can increase positive results. EURUSD is going up. Up, up, up, up, up, up, up. Namaste.
Long
by MasterAnanda
1
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
GBPAUD…being the best is a mindset!!Good day traders, I am back again with another great setup and again another opportunity to learn something new. On the daily TF on GBpAUD we still in a bearish structure and if we use the 2022 model, we had a structure shift lower and now that price is retesting the OTE entry levels we can now expect price to shoot lower, before you asked about the recent FVG on 4H TF. That newly formed BISI is that candle that created the BPR and from what I’ve learned is that price normally shoots past BPR’s. My poll of liquidity is resting below(weekly), that Ray line makes weekly represents previous week’s low which we want to see the market get to. Just on top of that ray line we have a FVG that price left open, we also wanna see price fill that FVG fully.
Short
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
3
EURUSD Rally already underway on the 1D MA50.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Up since practically the beginning of the year. The recent rebound (May 12) on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has technically started the pattern's new Bullish Leg. Given that the previous two have risen by +7.50% on average, and were both confirmed by a 1D MACD Bullish Cross like the one formed today, we expect a minimum +7.20% rise from the bottom. Our Target is 1.18500. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
Gold H4 Technical update and key levels bulls/bears📊 Technical Outlook Update H4 🏆 Bull Market Overview ▪️stuck in range for now ▪️overhead resistances will limit upside ▪️Bears key S/R: 3410/3460 USD ▪️Bulls key S/R: 3160/3240 USD ▪️Expect range price action ▪️Focus on selling high / buying low ▪️volatility likely to remain low ▪️next few weeks as no major headlines ⭐️Recommended strategy ▪️short high and buy low ▪️detailed price levels above ▪️right now no trade recommended Latest gold market updates: 📈 Gold surges as renewed tariff threats and geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven demand. 💳 Fiscal concerns escalate after the U.S. credit rating is downgraded, increasing investor interest in gold. 📊 Analysts identify $3,300 as a crucial support level, with strong buying interest keeping prices elevated. 🔮 Major banks project gold to surpass $4,000 per ounce within the next year, citing robust demand from both investors and central banks. 💍 Record gold prices prompt jewelry designers to shift toward 14-karat gold and alternative materials to control costs. 📉 Gold jewelry demand in India continues to decline due to high prices, while investment gold purchases rise. 🌍 Central banks, especially in emerging markets, sustain gold purchases to hedge against currency volatility and inflation. 🛡 Gold maintains key support above $3,200 despite market volatility and profit-taking pressures. 📈 Leading investment banks remain bullish, forecasting significant upside for gold through year-end. 💰 Gold is currently trading near $3,358 per ounce, reflecting ongoing volatility and global economic uncertainty.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
28
Pullback or Deeper Reversal After False Breakout Near 1.1425? EUR/USD Weekly Plan: Pullback or Deeper Reversal After False Breakout Near 1.1425? 🧭 MARKET OVERVIEW EUR/USD surged toward a new monthly high at 1.1425 earlier this week but quickly lost momentum and retraced to the 1.137x zone as the US Dollar bounced back. While the short-term recovery in DXY supported the dip, macro uncertainty surrounding Trump’s erratic trade policies continues to raise questions about the dollar’s long-term credibility. Meanwhile, Germany’s revised Q1 GDP growth of 0.4% (vs. 0.2% prior) helped support EUR, reinforcing its appeal as a safe alternative to the greenback. 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (H1 Chart) Main Trend: Short-term correction after strong bullish rally Resistance Levels: 1.14165 → Previous top, strong reversal zone 1.14017 → Minor supply zone Support Levels: 1.13476 → Key break structure zone 1.12791 → Daily demand zone & previous FVG bottom Indicators: EMA 20 & EMA 50 crossover signals weakening bullish momentum Price Pattern: Potential double top forming below 1.1425 🌐 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT Trump’s tariff threat postponed to July 9, but his unpredictable tone weakens USD trust. Germany Q1 GDP upgraded to 0.4% → boosts confidence in Eurozone’s economic resilience. ECB expected to cut rates in June, with policymakers showing confidence inflation will reach 2% target this year. This week’s key focus: → US PCE Price Index (April) → EU May HICP (CPI) These will drive short-term volatility and determine breakout/reversal confirmation. ✅ TRADE SETUPS 🔴 SELL ZONE: Entry: 1.1400–1.1416 SL: 1.1440 TP: 1.1382 → 1.1347 → 1.1279 🟢 BUY SCALP ZONE: Entry: 1.1345–1.1347 SL: 1.1320 TP: 1.1382 → 1.1400 📌 Preferred scenario: Look for bearish confirmation around 1.1400–1.1416 to enter short. Avoid aggressive buys unless price strongly holds above 1.1384. 🧩 CONCLUSION EUR/USD is showing signs of exhaustion after testing 1.1425. If bears reclaim 1.1384 and hold below 1.1347, deeper correction toward 1.1279 is likely. Conversely, if bulls defend 1.1345 and CPI/PCE data disappoints, price may retest highs.
Short
by MMFlowTrading
EURUSD - SHORT PREDICTION - MONDAY, 26TH MAY 2025A pullback appears to be underway, following a sweep of inducement around the 15-minute level at 1.13900—marking our first significant Change of Character (CHoCH). This shift aligns with the broader narrative from the 1-hour timeframe, suggesting the potential for a deeper retracement into the extreme 1H order block. With the current price trading around 1.13777, we anticipate a move back up to the 1.14078 level. This area is of interest for initiating short positions, in line with the ongoing correction. Our first take-profit target is set at 1.13368, where we expect an initial reaction. Should bearish momentum continue, we foresee price extending lower to sweep the previous daily low at 1.12771 and potentially tapping into the daily external order block at 1.12664. From there, we’ll closely monitor price behavior. If bullish intent begins to form, we’ll assess the potential for long setups targeting a move back toward the weekly high at 1.14190.
Short
by Sjcosmas
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.14048.Dear colleagues, it appears that this week started with a downward movement. It was decided to replace the last forecast with a new one, because the price is updating the minimum of wave “4”, now the formation of wave “c” of medium order is taking place. I believe that the upward movement to the area of 1.14048 will start again and we have 2 options: 1) market entry 2) working with pending limit orders closer to the 1.09794 area. Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Long
by Hellena_Trade
12
DeGRAM | EURUSD held the accumulation zone📊 Technical Analysis ● Two-year rising channel is intact; price just rebounded from the lower rail (RB) and punched back above the 2020-2024 red resistance trend-line, repeating the 2022 “break-retest-fixation” pattern. ● An 18-month accumulation rectangle (1.06-1.13) has resolved higher, printing a bullish weekly engulfing; the measured move points to the channel mid-band / horizontal cluster at 1.1600, then the upper rail near 1.1950. 💡 Fundamental Analysis ● Eurozone core CPI is stuck at 2.7 % y/y while US ISM and housing prints cooled, dragging real U.S. yields lower and narrowing the policy-rate gap priced for 2025. ✨ Summary Long above 1.1214; breakout projects 1.16 ➜ 1.195. Risk flips only on a weekly close back below 1.108. ------------------- Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
Long
by DeGRAM
2
EURUSD: PCE and EU trade tariffsAlthough this week there has not been currently significant macro data set for a release, the market volatility was reflecting fundamentals, mostly related to actuel narrative around trade tariffs. The US Administration was commenting on the possibility of setting a 50% trade tariff on goods coming from the EU, which brought back higher volatility on financial markets, and impacted the drop in value of US Dollar. As for macro data posted during the week, the Existing Home Sales reached 4M in May, which was a change of -0,5% for the previous month. At the same time, New Home Sales in April were higher by 10,9% in April compared to the previous month. The final inflation rate in the Euro Zone in April was standing at 0,6% in April, and 2,2% on a yearly level. The PPI in Germany in April dropped by -0,6% for the month, bringing the indicator down by -0,9% on a yearly basis. The HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash for May in Germany was standing at 48,8, while the same indicator in the Euro Zone reached 49,4, and was in line with market expectations. The Ifo Business Climate in May in Germany reached 87,5 and was in line with forecast. The GDP Growth rate final for Q1 in Germany was 0,4%, higher from estimated 0,2% for the quarter. At the same time the GDP growth for the year reached 0%, and was a bit better from forecasted -0,2%. The previous week was promising to be a calm one when macro data were in question, however, the higher volatility was induced by fundamentals, related to the narrative regarding trade tariffs. The eurusd currency pair was traded between levels of 1,1166 up to 1,1365. The RSI ended the week at the level of 58, but set the path toward the higher grounds, eyeing the overbought market side. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, indicating that the potential cross is not in the store for some time in the future. Current charts are pointing toward the relatively weaker short term resistance level at 1,1380. In case that this level is breached to the upside in the week ahead, then the eurusd will head toward the 1,1480 which is the historical resistance line for the eurusd pair. In this scenario, it would mark a double top formation in technical analysis from which short term reversal could be expected. The second option is that the market starts weekly trading in a more relaxed mode, and revert from current levels. In this case, the next stop of the currency pair will be around the level of 1,1280. Still, it should be considered that the narrative around tariffs on EU goods will continue in a week ahead, which will bring some higher volatility and the PCE data are set for release which could be another trigger for volatility. Important news to watch during the week ahead are: EUR: GfK Consumer Confidence in June for Germany, Unemployment rate in in Germany in May, Retail Sales in April in Germany, Inflation rate preliminary for May in Germany, USD: Durable Goods Orders in April, CB Consumer Confidence in May, FOMC Meeting Minutes, GDP Growth rate for Q1, second estimate, PCE Price Index in April, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for May.
by XBTFX
EURUSD Breaking Above Resistance Line; Wave 5 In PlayEURUSD moved nicely higher in April, into the 1.15–1.16 area, a resistance where pair slowed down at the end of wave 3, that put retracement in play. However, a pullback has been made in three waves, so its seen as temporary within the broader uptrend. We saw some deeper retracement down to 1,1, near the 38.2% Fib from where we can see some nice turn up, above the trendline resistance so it appears that bulls are in play for wave 5. Therefore, be aware of more upside afte some intraday dips. Support is at 1.1266 area. GH
by ew-forecast
EUR/USD at a Crossroads: Will the Bears Strike Back from 1.14? 📍1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT EUR/USD is trading around 1.1405, inside an ascending channel and right within a supply zone (1.1370–1.1470), which already triggered a rejection on April 16. Price action currently shows hesitation, with three consecutive candles at the top of the channel and RSI divergence, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum after an overextension. The bullish trendline from April remains intact and validated, but the upside is narrowing. Likely scenario: bullish exhaustion followed by a pullback towards 1.1270–1.1220, with a potential retest of both the trendline and the lower boundary of the channel. 📊2. COT REPORT (USD & EUR) – Updated to May 20 USD Index: Non-Commercials added +2,044 net longs, but also +1,975 new shorts. Open Interest rose by +2,207 → a more active market, but still mixed. Net exposure remains neutral to slightly bearish for the dollar. EURO FX: Non-Commercials cut -3,587 longs and added +6,814 shorts, while Commercials increased longs by +16,796. Speculative funds are gradually shifting short on the Euro, while Commercials continue to hedge long. → Combined read: Large speculators are reducing their Euro exposure and staying cautious on the Dollar. Short-term pressure on EUR/USD remains bearish, though no macro reversal yet. 📉3. SENTIMENT & POSITIONING Retail sentiment shows 71% of traders are short EUR/USD — a classically contrarian signal. However, price is now sitting in a liquidity cluster where smart money might exploit a final squeeze before a real reversal. Market depth shows strong imbalance, with long orders stacked above current price — suggesting potential stop hunt already triggered or about to fade. 🧭4. SEASONALITY Historically, May is a bearish month for EUR/USD: -0.0079 on 20-year average, and -0.0163 on 10-year average. Seasonality supports late May weakness and potential downside continuation into early June. ✅ TRADING OUTLOOK 📌 Primary Bias: short-term corrective bearish, waiting for clearer reversal signals. 📌 Key Reaction Zone: 1.1400–1.1470 → structural short area, already tested. 📌 Bearish Target: 1.1270 > 1.1210 (golden pocket + trendline confluence) 📌 Setup invalidation: daily close above 1.1470 with volume → possible extension to 1.1550/1.1580 📌 Macro support: Commercials remain long on the Euro → underlying structure still bullish, but too early to fade short-term bearish momentum.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
9
1.15150 Resistance Looms Amid EU Economic WoesOn the daily timeframe, EURUSD continues climbing toward the strong resistance zone around 1.15150 after a solid rebound from the EMA 34. However, the current candlestick structure shows signs of slowing momentum as price approaches a historically significant top — a zone prone to short-term profit-taking. The technical setup becomes even more relevant when viewed alongside macroeconomic developments: the U.S. has just announced an extension of its 50% tariff deadline on EU goods from June 1 to July 9, temporarily easing trade tensions. However, the European Commission has revised down its Eurozone growth forecast for 2025 from 1.3% to 0.9%, highlighting persistent structural weaknesses and economic risks in the region. The likely scenario: EURUSD may face rejection at 1.15150, followed by a pullback toward the support area around 1.09610. This zone aligns with the EMA 34, EMA 89, and a previous accumulation range. If this support fails to hold, the medium-term trend could shift clearly to the downside.
by Rocky_trade_
EURUSD Trendline Breakout – Bullish Target Ahead EURUSD has successfully broken out of a strong descending trendline, which was acting as dynamic resistance for weeks. The breakout is backed by strong bullish candles and clear higher lows forming. After the breakout, the price also reclaimed a key horizontal support zone around 1.12573, turning it into a solid base for further upside. 🎯 Bullish Target (Expected): First major bullish target at 1.13864 based on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the last swing move. 📌 Support: 1.12573 📌 Breakout Confirmation: Valid as long as price holds above the trendline and support. 📈 Outlook: The momentum looks strong for further bullish continuation. If the price holds above the breakout zone, we expect a move toward 1.13864 in the coming sessions.
Long
by ClearTradingMind
EUROUSD COT and Liquidity Analysis chart The EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a convincing upward momentum, which might suggest a sustained long opportunity. However, traders should exercise caution—this bullish move could be a classic trap. Despite the current strength, signs of exhaustion are beginning to appear in the price action and volume. The market may soon shift direction, and a downward correction or full reversal could be imminent. Now is not the time to chase the high—stay alert, as the fall could happen sooner than expected.
by SadarExplore
2