Reversal Coming on EUR/USD"EUR/USD approaching potential reversal zone. Watching for confirmation to short from the top of wave C. Target: previous support. #elliottwave #forextrading #eurusd”
Key Takeaways from the Chart:
1. Current Zone (C Wave):
Price is entering the key resistance/supply zone.
C wave completion is expected here (likely the end of the correction).
2. Bearish Reaction Expected:
You're forecasting a potential reversal from this zone.
A short-term retracement or trend reversal is likely, marked by the red arrow.
3. Trade Plan (Based on Idea):
Wait for Price Action Confirmation in the resistance zone (e.g., bearish engulfing, pin bar, divergence).
Once confirmed, look for a short entry with a target toward the yellow support box.
Use tight stop-loss above the resistance zone.
EURUSD
EURUSD 3 TARGETS for selling 3 TOPS. The 5 year cheat-sheet!The EURUSD pair opened the week with a strong rally already due to the fundamentals surrounding the recent Tariff news. The 1W RSI is overbought at 74.00 and it hasn't been that high since January 22 2018. That was a long-term Top for EURUSD that initiated a 2-year downtrend until the March 2020 COVID crash and the start of massive rate hiking.
Even the last two times that the RSI came close to such overbought levels, the pair started a 6-month peak formation pattern with 3 Highs that offered solid short entries before the eventual larger downtrend. Those periods were January 30 2023 - July 17 2023 and August 31 2020 - May 24 2021.
Given that EURUSD is now trading within a long-term Channel Up (blue) and just formed a 1D MA50/ 1W MA50 Bullish Cross, we are closer to High (1) than not, since every time that is formed close to the standard +16.19% rise from the bottom.
For those successive Highs, our long-term sell targets will be 1.12500, 1.13250 and 1.12000 on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level respectively.
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EURUSD: continuously overboughtPrevious week was the relatively calmer one on financial markets, to some extent due to lack of new information regarding trade tariffs. In addition, Friday was a holiday on Western markets, and was a non-working day, same as Monday in the week ahead. Usually, the pre-holiday period is a relatively calmer one on markets. As for macro data posted for the US, the Retail Sales in March were higher by 1,4% a bit higher from market consensus of 1,3%. The Industrial Production in March dropped by -0,3% for the month, while on a yearly basis was standing at 1,3%. Building permits preliminary for March were at the level of 1.482M a bit higher from market estimate of 1,45M. Building permits were by 1,6% higher on a monthly basis.
The major event during the previous week was the ECB meeting and decision on facility rate. For one more time the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In an after the meeting press conference, the SCB President Lagarde expressed some urgency in light of ongoing trade tensions as well as increased disinflationary pressures. The wholesale prices in Germany dropped by -0,2% in March, leading to an increase of 1,3% on a yearly basis. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for April in Germany reached the level of -14,0, which was significantly below estimated 9,5. The Inflation rate in the Euro Zone final for March was standing at 0,6%, a bit higher from previous 0,4%, but in line with market expectations. Inflation rate on a yearly basis in march was at the level of 2,2%. The Producers Price Index in Germany in March was -0,2% for the year and -0,7% for the month. Both figures were well below market estimates.
Friday, April 11th, was the critical day from the point of technical analysis, considering that the market pushed the eurusd toward the long term resistance line at 1,14. As expected, the market used the previous week to test this level. The moving range of the currency pair was between 1,1273 and 1,1406. Evidently, at this point of time there was no strength to cross the 1,14 level. The RSI continues to move at the highly overbought market side, above the level of 70. Interesting development occurred with MA lines, where MA 50 crossed the MA 200 from the downside. This formation in technical analysis is called the golden-cross, indicating high potential for a trend reversal, in this case, in the favour of the euro.
The week ahead will start slowly, considering Easter holidays on the Western markets. At the same time, there is no currently important news scheduled for a release. The final Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April is set for a release, however, the market is not expecting to see some significant change from the previous post. In this sense, there is a higher probability of a relaxation in the eurusd currency pair. The 1,14 level could be shortly tested again, while on the downside, there is equal probability that the 1,12 support level could be tested again.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash for April for Germany and the Euro Zone, Ifo Business Climate in Germany in April,
USD: S&P Global Composite PMI Flash for April, Durable Goods Orders in March, Existing Home Sales in March, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for April.
DeGRAM | EURUSD Breaks the Downward Wedge📊 Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades in a rising channel, holding support.
- Price broke out of a falling wedge and retested 1.1350, confirming bullish momentum.
- Resistance lies at 1.1500–1.1550.
✨ Summary
Confirmed wedge breakout support EUR/USD growth. Above 1.1350, targets: 1.1500–1.1550 and 1.1650–1.1840 medium term.
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OIL – Bearish Setup at FVG + Golden Pocket ConfluenceThis 4H chart of Crude Oil Futures highlights a clean bearish setup forming as price approaches a confluence zone of imbalance and premium pricing. After a sharp downward move, the current rally appears to be a retracement into areas of interest for potential distribution.
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1. Context & Market Structure:
- The market experienced a significant bearish move, breaking multiple support levels with conviction.
- Price is currently retracing upward, creating the possibility of a lower high in line with bearish market structure.
- The ongoing move looks corrective, setting up a potential return to the dominant trend.
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2. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) & Key Supply Zones:
- Two FVGs are identified on the chart — both marked as areas where price moved too quickly, leaving inefficiencies behind.
- The lower FVG overlaps with the 0.618–0.65 Fibonacci golden pocket zone, providing a strong confluence for potential rejection.
- The upper FVG aligns with the 0.786 level, representing deeper premium pricing and added confluence for distribution.
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3. Fibonacci Confluence Zones:
- 0.618–0.65 zone: Coincides with the lower FVG — this is the first area to watch for rejection.
- 0.786 level: Aligns with the upper FVG, making it an extended zone for bearish entries if price pushes higher.
- These Fibonacci levels serve as key retracement zones within the context of bearish continuation.
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4. Anticipated Move:
- The red arrow illustrates the projected path: price reaching into the FVG and golden pocket confluence, then rejecting to the downside.
- The inefficiencies above act as supply zones where institutional selling may occur.
- The lower purple level (0.28) is a potential magnet for price if the retracement completes and bearish momentum resumes.
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5. Trade Idea Narrative:
- This is a classic bearish setup where price retraces into premium and inefficiency zones during a downtrend.
- The ideal reaction would involve a shift in lower timeframe structure once the price hits the golden pocket + FVG zone.
- Patience and confirmation are key — watching for rejection patterns or breakdowns within the FVG before commitment.
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Summary:
Crude Oil is retracing after a sharp drop and is approaching a high-probability reversal zone, where a Fair Value Gap overlaps with the golden pocket. This setup provides a strong narrative for potential bearish continuation, supported by structure, imbalance, and Fibonacci confluence.
GBP/USD in terminal phase? This zone could flip everything!📊 Technical Analysis
Price is currently trading in a strong weekly/monthly resistance zone around 1.3390–1.3400, marked by a dense multi-layer supply area. Historically, this level has caused sharp rejections.
From the lows, price completed a steep bullish leg, breaking through several structures. However:
Momentum seems overstretched.
RSI shows potential overbought signals.
There's a likely bearish target zone between 1.2950 and 1.2850, which is a key demand area.
📌 Trade Setup:
I’m watching for exhaustion signals or bearish confirmations on H1 to short from the current resistance, targeting the grey and turquoise zones below 1.30.
🧾 COT Report – GBP
Large Speculators (Asset Managers) still hold a net short position, although they've reduced exposure in recent months.
Leverage Funds remain slightly long, but without strong conviction.
💵 COT Report – USD
Leverage Funds have turned significantly net long on the dollar (strong green line upward since March).
This supports a bearish view on GBP/USD, as USD strength returns.
📉 Summary:
Price is at a key decision zone. A technical correction is possible. COT data supports this view:
GBP remains weak on the institutional side.
USD is regaining strength.
Bullish Pennant Confirms Breakout: Momentum Builds Toward 1.19The pair has formed a textbook bullish pennant on the 4-hour timeframe following a sharp impulsive move upward. Price action consolidated within a narrowing triangle, signaling accumulation before the next leg higher.
The breakout above the pennant’s resistance suggests continuation of the uptrend, with projected Fibonacci targets at:
1.1781 (1.272 extension)
1.1940 (1.414 extension)
Volume behavior confirms the pattern: declining during the consolidation phase and increasing at the breakout, supporting a strong bullish bias.
Fundamental backdrop:
-The US Dollar faces pressure as markets increasingly price in a potential Fed rate cut in the second half of 2025.
-The ECB maintains a more hawkish stance, reinforcing euro strength relative to USD.
-Eurozone economic data shows signs of inflation stabilization, while US CPI readings remain mixed.
-Capital rotation favors major currencies with resilient monetary policies and macroeconomic stability.
As long as EUR/USD holds above 1.1476, the bullish scenario remains intact. A move toward 1.1781 and 1.1940 appears likely. A breakdown below 1.1237 would invalidate the pennant and shift momentum toward support retests.
EURUSD H4 I Bearish Drop Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price has just reacted off our sell entry at 1.1530, aligning with the 127.2% Fibo extension.
Our take profit will be at 1.1426, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 1.1624, above the 161.8% Fibo extension.
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Bearish reversal for the Fiber?The price is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 1.1532
1st Support: 1.1198
1st Resistance: 1.1710
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bearish reversal?EUR/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1524
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 1.1667
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit: 1.1201
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
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How Smart Money is Positioning in EUR/USD – 5 Scenarios UnfoldedLiquidity Maps & Trap Zones: EUR/USD 1H Breakdown
EUR/USD SMC Analysis – Scenarios Overview
1. Case 1 – Immediate Pump:
The market may pump directly from the current market price (CMP) and take out the external range liquidity resting above the current highs.
2. Case 2 – 15-Min Demand Reaction:
The market could react to the 15-minute demand zone , showing a bullish response and pushing higher toward the 1H supply zone .
3. Case 3 – Inducement & Distribution:
Combined with Case 2, the market may first mitigate the 15-minute demand , then take out the inducement (IdM ) near the 1H supply zone . From there, distribution may begin within that supply range, leading to a drop toward the discount zone .
This would likely involve a fake breakout to the upside (liquidity sweep), trapping buyers and hitting the stop-losses of early sellers before reversing sharply.
4. Case 4 – 1H CHoCH and Triangle Breakdown:
A Change of Character (CHoCH) may occur on the 1H timeframe directly from the current price, leading to a downside move. This scenario would also break the rising triangle pattern , triggering entries from price action traders and increasing market volatility as liquidity accelerates the move downward.
5. Case 5 – 1H Supply Rejection & Free Fall:
The market may react from the 1H supply zone and reject aggressively, resulting in a free fall all the way down to the previous CHoCH level , confirming strong bearish intent from premium to discount.
Thanks for your time..
Week of 4/20/25: EURUSD AnalysisEU had a crazy week of consolidation last week and it was best to stay out until structure was clearer and had a direction.
My direction this week is bullish since all structure is bullish and we are starting to see that demand is in control. If it isn't, expect the lower level 4H POI to be mitigated and then continue the bull run.
Major News:
PMI - Wednesday
Unemployment - Thursday
Thanks for coming, hope you guys have a great week!
Weekly FOREX Forecast: Buy EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD vs USDThis is the FOREX outlook for the week of April 21 - 25th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
CAD
CHF
JPY
Not a lot of movement last week, as price traded in a small range. May see more of the same this coming week, as there are no major news events planned. The USD is still weak, and there may be opportunities to buy against it in the EUR, GBP, AID, NZD, CAD, CHF, AND JPY.
Wait for good confirmation before taking valid buy setups!
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
EUR/NZD About to Explode? Traders Are Watching THIS Level!📊 General Analysis of EUR/NZD (Higher Timeframe)
1. 📌 Price Context
The price had a strong bounce from a demand zone (highlighted in light blue) around 1.85.
It then broke through multiple supply zones (gray and maroon) to the upside and is currently hovering near 1.91874.
🔍 Key Zones
🔵 Demand Zone (Support)
Range: 1.8430 – 1.8712
This zone has been tested multiple times, with long wicks to the downside → indicating strong buying interest.
A powerful bullish move originated from this area.
🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance)
Current resistance: 1.9187 – 1.9450
This is where the price is currently paused → potential rejection area.
Monthly upper zone (1M): 1.96 – 2.00
A strong long-term resistance. If reached, we might see profit-taking or even a reversal.
🕯️ Candles & Momentum
The large green candle represents a strong bullish breakout.
The weekly candle (labeled "1W") shows indecision → this could be a pause before continuation or the beginning of a pullback.
🔮 Possible Future Scenarios
✅ Bullish Scenario
If the price decisively breaks above 1.9187, the next target is 1.9600 – 2.0000.
⚠️ Bearish Scenario
If price gets rejected at current levels, it may fall back into the support zone 1.8712 – 1.8500, which has previously shown strength.
📈 Lower Indicator (Likely RSI or Wavetrend)
Currently bouncing from an oversold area.
No clear overbought signals → there’s room for more upside.
🧭 Conclusion
Current trend: Bullish (especially in the short to mid term).
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: 1.9187 and 1.96–2.00
Support: 1.8712 and 1.85
SILVER – Wave 3 Breakdown Using Elliott Wave Theory3-Day Silver Chart Analysis
We're analyzing the full structure of Wave 3, which itself consists of 5 smaller waves, following the Elliott Wave impulsive pattern:
Impulse Wave Structure (5 Waves):
Wave 1: 5 subwaves (either impulse or leading diagonal)
Wave 2: 3-wave correction
Wave 3: 5 subwaves (impulse)
Wave 4: 3-wave correction
Wave 5: 5 subwaves (can be impulsive or corrective)
Right now, we’re in Wave 5 of Wave 3, and within that, we’re in subwave 1, expecting a subwave 2 correction next.
Trade Plan:
- Watch for the subwave 2 correction to develop
- Once wave C of the correction forms, draw a trendline and enter on the breakout
- Set hard stops below the invalidation level, or under Wave 2 after the breakout
- Take profit levels: 35, 37, 39
Good luck and as always, trade safe!
Take a look at our earlier Silver setups below:
Free Setups
SILVER:
SILVER:
SILVER:
VIP Setups
SILVER:
SILVER:
SILVER:
SILVER:
EURUSD - Macro ViewHello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈From a macro perspective, EURUSD has been bearish trading within the falling red channel.
Medium-term, EURUSD has been in a correction phase trading within the rising channel in orange.
Moreover, the green zone is a massive monthly resistance.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper red and orange trendlines and resistance.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #EURUSD approaches the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EURUSD - at Resistance: Will it drop to 1.11300?OANDA:EURUSD price is now at a strong resistance level, this is an area where it has struggled to break through in the past and reversed to the downside. It's also where sellers have stepped in before, so it’s worth keeping an eye on, especially for anyone considering short trades.
If we start seeing signs that the price is getting rejected here: like long wicks, bearish candles, or buyers starting to lose momentum, I think we could see a move down toward the 1.11300 level. But if price breaks through this zone clearly, that might dismiss the bearish idea and suggest even more upside will continue.
This area is pretty important and could give us a better idea of where price is headed next.
Just sharing my thoughts on support and resistance, this isn’t financial advice. Always confirm your setups and manage your risk wisely.
EURO - Price can fall to $1.1200 points, exiting from triangleHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Price first broke out of a falling wedge pattern, kicking off a sharp rally that gained serious momentum.
The move ran into resistance at $1.1440, where price began stalling and transitioned into a triangle setup.
Since then, price has been wedged inside the triangle, testing highs but struggling to break convincingly.
The support trendline still holds, but each push upward is met with rejection near the resistance ceiling.
Momentum is fading, and with volume drying up, a downside move is becoming more likely from this zone.
I expect that the Euro can break lower from the triangle and fall to $1.1200 points in the upcoming sessions.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Euro may correct to support area and then rebound upHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see that the price started its growth from the buyer zone between 1.0730 - 1.0785 points, where the price found strong support near the lower boundary of the broadening wedge. After bouncing off that zone, Euro gained momentum and made an impulsive move upward, breaking through the resistance line and establishing a bullish trajectory. Once the pair overcame the 1.1265 level, which is now acting as current support, the price entered a period of consolidation inside the support area between 1.1310 - 1.1265 points. This zone is showing signs of strength again, with the price attempting to stabilize above it. The overall structure continues to respect the boundaries of the broadening wedge, with higher highs and higher lows confirming bullish control. At the moment, EUR is correcting slightly after reaching local highs and is approaching the support area again. A healthy pullback toward 1.1310 - 1.1265 would be in line with the pattern and could trigger the next bullish impulse. Given the ongoing upward structure, the strong support area, and the clear wedge formation, I expect Euro to continue growing toward the upper wedge boundary near 1.1555 points, which is my current TP1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURUSD A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for EURUSD below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 1.1389
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 1.1377
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
EURUSD Is Bullish! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for EURUSD.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 1.093.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 1.114.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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