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EUR/USD climbs to 1.1940 and ready to move forwardsEUR/USD climbs to 1.1940 and ready to move forwards Even though the Euro climbed more sharply than expected amid the news that Angela Merkel agreed to form large coalition with the Social Democrats, the movement remained in line with general expectations. As long as the pair stays within the medium-term ascending channel that is backed up by the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, it is likely to continue advancing against the Dollar towards the 1.2000 mark that represents an intersection of the pattern’s upper boundary and the monthly R2. In shorter perspective bears might try to gain a momentum, although the plunge is unlikely to exceed the 1.1870 level, as this area is secured by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, one of the above MAs and the weekly PP. However, the red scenario is unlikely due to formation of a minor pennant pattern, which presupposes further surge.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD falls as Merkel fails to form coalitionEUR/USD falls as Merkel fails to form coalition As the currency pair did not have any fundamental background that could justify a rapid move, it finished the week near the 55-hour SMA. However, in early hours of the new trading session it broke though combined support set up by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the weekly PP and approached the bottom boundary of a three-week long ascending channel. The reason for such sudden fall was based on news about Merkel’s failure to form a three-party coalition. Nevertheless, such weakening of the Euro is expected to have limited effect, as the above lower support line is additionally secured by the 200-hour SMA and the monthly PP located at the psychological 1.1700 level. At the same time, the rebound is unlikely to proceed above the 1.1760 mark especially when this area will become protected by the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD starts new week near 1.1660EUR/USD starts new week near 1.1660 Despite a positive perception of ideas expressed by the US President Donald Trump at the ASEAN summit the Dollar is continuing to lose value against the Euro in a one-week long ascending channel. Although the pattern is supported by the rising 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, the upcoming rebound from the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1679 is likely to lead to breakout to the south. This assumption is additionally backed up by the average market sentiment, which is 63% bearish. Moreover, there is a need to take into account that today there are scheduled no fundamental events that might give the pair an impulse strong enough to bypass the above resistance, which has been managing to turnaround the rate for the last two weeks.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD trades near 1.16 amid Chinese data releaseEUR/USD trades near 1.16 amid Chinese data release In line with expectations, the currency exchange rate continued to move in southern direction under pressure from the 55-hour SMA. A short dip below the weekly S1 located at the 1.1573 level as well as the subsequent recovery signified two confirmation points, thus confirming existence of a fully-fledged junior descending channel. As the upper-trend line of the pattern is additionally protected by the slipping 100- and 200-hour SMAs, the pair is not expected to make a sudden breakout to the north. Accordingly, today the exchange rate is expected to test an area near the 1.1555 mark, which might represent a notable support barrier. The average market sentiment, which remains 58% bearish, confirms this general direction. However, the above assumption might be altered due to beginning of Trump visit to China.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD falls to 1.16 amid surprising US data EUR/USD falls to 1.16 amid surprising US data A release of better that expected data on the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI led to sharp appreciation of the buck against the common European currency and resulted in a breakout from two junior ascending channels. An active recovery of the exchange rate seems unlikely, as the northern is contains a bunch of technical indicators, such as the weekly PP at 1.1631 and the falling 55- and 100-hour SMAs. Moreover, there is a slope on a daily chart that is likely to serve as an additional barrier. For this reason, the pair is expected to gradually slip to the bottom towards support area near the 1.1580 mark. However, for now the rate is squeezed between two vises at 1.1625 and 1.1600 and might continue this horizontal movement until catching a proper momentum.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD trades near 1.1760Morning outlook - EUR/USD trades near 1.1760 Due to anticipation of the ECB meeting as well as referendum on extension of autonomy in Lombardy and Veneto regions the common European currency slipped against the Dollar to the 1.7520 mark. As the northern side is protected by a combination of the 100-hour SMA and the weekly PP plus the 55- and 200-hour SMAs, the pair is expected to continue to move to the bottom towards the bottom boundary of an alleged three-week long ascending channel that is located a little bit above the updated weekly PP at 1.1722. The general strengthening of the Greenback is also supported by the average market sentiment, which is 59% bearish. As there are no data releases planned for today, the pair should not make any unexpected and sharp moves.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD breaks upwardsMorning outlook - EUR/USD breaks upwards In result of a decrease of the American unemployment rate, traders tried to push the pair through the bottom trend-line of a large falling wedge pattern. However, it made a rebound and in the early Monday morning left the formation in the northern direction. The surge was not sharp, as the pair still needs to cross a combination of the upper edge of a junior descending channel and the 200-hour SMA. In addition to that, it stuck near the updated weekly PP at 1.1740 that is backed up by the 100-hour SMA. These obstacles as well as the Friday’s jump by 34 basis points just in hour suggest that the rate is likely to retreat for some time. An aggregate of technical indicators support this scenario. In addition to that, market sentiment remains 57% bearish.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD moves near 55-, 100-hour SMAsMorning outlook - EUR/USD moves near 55-, 100-hour SMAs In general, the pair continued to move horizontally between the 200-day SMA and the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, as expected. Unfortunately, none of the yesterday’s events caused any significant volatility in the markets. From technical perspective, it seems that movement of the pair was mainly constrained by the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that helped to form a minor ascending channel, which is lying perpendicularly to larger descending channel. In the first half of the day, the rate is expected to try to break through the upper trend line of the above pattern, which is backed up by the 200-hour SMA. If a rebound from the retracement level meant the beginning of a new medium-term uptrend, then the pair should eventually bypass this resistance. Otherwise, a rebound is going to follow, in accordance with the current downtrend.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD heads upwards after Merkel winsMorning outlook - EUR/USD heads upwards after Merkel wins Although initially markets were positively anticipating the upcoming Draghi speech at Trinity College, but the subsequent reaction led to quite rapid recovery of the Dollar on Friday. To certain extent, such bearish movement could be related to anticipation of the German Parliamentary elections. However, as soon as it became clear that Merkel managed to retain her post, the Euro started restoring previously lost positions. From technical perspective, this upside momentum is likely to be neutralized by a combined resistance formed by the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP at 1.1947. On the other hand, Draghi's testimony at the European Parliament might create a new short-term volatility in the markets, which could give the pair a necessary impulse to bypass those barriers. In the opposite case, the rate is likely to fall to the bottom edge of a dominant ascending channel. P.S. In result of the various fundamental events that happened during the previous week, the currency pair has formed a symmetrical triangle whose upper boundary represents a part of a junior descending channel and the lower boundary represents a part of a senior ascending channel. Accordingly, in the end of this or beginning of the next week the pair is expected to make a breakout from this pattern. This result will reveal what trend has prevailed and in which direction the currency rate would move in the nearest perspective (clearly seen on daily chart)
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid RateMorning outlook - EUR/USD prepares for EU Min Bid Rate As it was expected, a pressure from a combination of the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs neutralized any further attempts of the currency pair to slip to the bottom. The exchange rate even managed to from a junior ascending channel and bypass the weekly PP at 1.1918, fluctuating within it. Today will be the next day for the Euro due to announcement of the EU Minimum Bid Rate and the subsequent ECB press conference. Usually, this event leads to very strong traders’ reaction on it. In this context, the pair is expected to make a substantial advance today. Given a reaction to Draghi speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium two weeks ago, the Euro should appreciate today as well. The same direction is also seen from hourly and daily chart perspectives.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
EUR/USD breaks above 1.2000Morning outlook - EUR/USD breaks above 1.2000 The common European currency is continuing to advance against the US Dollar, using an upside momentum that was provided by the Jackson Hole Symposium. In result of the previous trading session, the currency rate has entered into a small ascending channel, which helped the pair to surge to the 1.2000 level. The further surge was expected to be restrained either by the weekly R1, or by the monthly R1 at 1.2021. However, the exchange rate managed to bypass these combined resistance level. As a result, now it has practically no barriers on its way up until the upper boundary of a medium-term ascending channel. The opposite side, in contrast, is protected by the 55-hour SMA and a bunch of other technical indicators. In this sense, the further advance seems quite possible at least until the 1.2076 level. However, there is also a need to take into account an impact on the value of buck after release of information on the US CB Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, which is expected to plunge to 120.9, compared to the 121.1 last month.
by UnknownUnicorn890690